The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Where fellow sufferers gather to share the pain, longing and unrequited transfer requests that make being a Wanderer what it is...

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The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun May 01, 2022 6:14 am

We've had a hugely positive end to the season. Great form, improved a bit at the back, scoring goals and looking like a team. It would be easy to get carried away and think promotion next season is a shoo-in; but when planning for a new season a healthy does of scepticism is useful.

We came into 21/22 as optimists - because we couldn't afford the squad depth and quality that pessimism would have demanded. Versatility would make do where depth was lacking and style of play would overcome lack of tools/ability in key areas. Other teams wouldn't be able to handle our patterns and invention, we believed, meaning we'd be better than the sum of our parts. The winter should have taught us not to go into 22/23 with the same sunny attitude.

The reality is that we are still (even after January) behind the promoted clubs and others above us when you go player-for-player through squads. They have more bodies of the required level and the top performing players this season play for our rivals, not for us. Most clubs above us will be able to out-spend us in the summer. This season the three relegated Championship clubs have all finished in the top 6 and we have to expect the clubs coming down from the division above to be very competitive. Barnsley and Peterborough are old hands at escaping this division, whilst Derby are a huge with a famous manager. That puts us a step behind several clubs as things stand.

Were we to stagnate over the summer we'd have to assume that we'd go into the season middle-of-the-road in terms of squad depth and quality. Good players, certainly, but not enough of them and not the very best the league has to offer. That is before we factor in whether we can rely on some of our most important players, who have had serious injury issues this season.

The Fleetwood game showed us that a lower team can go toe-to-toe with us and arguably be unlucky to score only two goals. The teams coming up from League Two are better than those going down (better coached and better financed) and we have to assume that there will be fewer whipping boys next season letting us get away with mistakes that should have cost us.

We can't afford to be as good as we've been since mid-January...we absolutely must be better if we want to go up automatically. Better at the back, better going forward - better on and off the ball. We are a good League One side, but if we want to achieve Evatt's aim of "Premier League in five years" then this summer needs to be another leap forward. It doesn't need a revolution of the squad. We have plenty of good League One players. What we now need are players too good for this division who can carry us out of it - and enough of them to cover for the inevitable injuries and loss of form that any season brings.

Feel free to stick your own pessimism in this thread....or to tell me where to stick mine.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 9:49 am

The sky is falling in.

Yes we need to improve. The two teams with better returns since Jan are both in the play-offs. At least one will be with us. So we have at least one that has objectively been better than us and maybe two.

Derby would be in no danger of relegation without the points deductions. Their admin from a distance doesn't seem the have been quite as adversarial on the player base as ours was when we were putting out the yoof.

Some of the teams where we get beat through "play style" likes of Wycombe might also be around. Burton for example still here.

Keeping a run in tact over 46 games is harder than keeping one in tact over 23 (23 since 1 Jan?)

I've mentally got us 6th/7th. Even if I gave us 3 points for some of the "injury hit" games, it wouldn't get us near the top teams....

Defence still suspect on long balls and set pieces and some one on one defending for me. Numbers that don't appear on the beautiful stat wheels.

I think we do have some tough decisions around "upgrades" with some folks that are decent pros and have served us well...

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun May 01, 2022 10:06 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 9:49 am
The sky is falling in.
That's the spirit!

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by BWFC_Insane » Sun May 01, 2022 10:16 am

I think it’s absolutely right to suggest that assuming the squad as it is now are promotion certs is both foolish and dangerous. We have many elements. But not all. Winning games at the back end of a season with not much to play for is good but it doesn’t test our ability to go to the best most physical sides on a wet January afternoon and do so.

I think we need a few additions of real quality to balance us out. They will be critical. And it gets harder if we lose key players so Trafford, Fossey, Dapo and Santos. All key parts post January. If we ‘lost’ three of those it’s harder as you have to do more in one window to just get back to where you were rather than move forwards.

But I am relatively optimistic. Next season we should be stronger and more able to hit the ground running. I’m not scared by the make up of the league. We know it now. We know the standard. And I suspect next season will be little different. Consistency is what counts. No point winning 5-0 one week to lose the next. You need consistency right across the season. I’m optimistic we will find the right balance. Evatt has a strike force that many will fear. If we get the balance right behind that we will be up there.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun May 01, 2022 10:31 am

nicholaldo wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 9:11 am
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 5:17 am
Montreal Wanderer wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 4:07 am
I'm sure the current side would be in the promotion places next season if we keep them all. But can we retain key players or replace them with equal quality?
I have my doubts that this current squad, given a free run, gets promoted next season. It's probably more of a thread topic than a reply, but I think we're currently short on both quality and depth.
Our points return since the turn of the year would have us finishing third, certainly very impressive but in matches against the very best it felt to me that we were just short of the standard required.
I've moved this over from the Where Will We Finish? topic to here, which seems a more natural home for it.

Funny old season. In autumn/winter I insisted the attack was underperforming (as well as the defence) but this has been fixed. By winter/Jan is was obvious the midfield needed improving (as well as the defence) and it has been. Defence to me still needs improvement. I'm glad we scored 4 against Fleetwood, but we also conceded 2.

Couple of weeks back I analysed the manner of the goals conceded in the games we *didn't* win since the upturn. (Updated figures: We've played 22 since Trafford came in and the good run started. W14 D5 L3, and of the 8 games we didn't win, I blame 5 of them on set-piece poorness and 2 on poor defending.)

Spoiler alert: the majority of them were set-pieces; several of the others were brainfarts. The only team we didn't hand it to one way or other was McDons, although even their second stemmed from a poor Traf clearance.

This is both good news and bad. Good news is that coaching to defend set pieces is far from the hardest thing in football. Bad news is that clearly it either hasn't happened well enough or we haven't had the right players to do it. Our defending on set pieces has been a weakness through Evatt's era and while it's definitely better, it's still the weakness that those teams have exploited – Plymouth, Portsmouth, Wigan and Wednesday all went in front against us through set pieces, and although we fought back for draws against three of them, it still arguably cost us wins and in one case even a draw.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 10:42 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:16 am
But I am relatively optimistic.
Not on this thread, surely! 🤣🤣

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 10:53 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:31 am
nicholaldo wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 9:11 am
GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 5:17 am
Montreal Wanderer wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 4:07 am
I'm sure the current side would be in the promotion places next season if we keep them all. But can we retain key players or replace them with equal quality?
I have my doubts that this current squad, given a free run, gets promoted next season. It's probably more of a thread topic than a reply, but I think we're currently short on both quality and depth.
Our points return since the turn of the year would have us finishing third, certainly very impressive but in matches against the very best it felt to me that we were just short of the standard required.
I've moved this over from the Where Will We Finish? topic to here, which seems a more natural home for it.

Funny old season. In autumn/winter I insisted the attack was underperforming (as well as the defence) but this has been fixed. By winter/Jan is was obvious the midfield needed improving (as well as the defence) and it has been. Defence to me still needs improvement. I'm glad we scored 4 against Fleetwood, but we also conceded 2.

Couple of weeks back I analysed the manner of the goals conceded in the games we *didn't* win since the upturn. (Updated figures: We've played 22 since Trafford came in and the good run started. W14 D5 L3, and of the 8 games we didn't win, I blame 5 of them on set-piece poorness and 2 on poor defending.)

Spoiler alert: the majority of them were set-pieces; several of the others were brainfarts. The only team we didn't hand it to one way or other was McDons, although even their second stemmed from a poor Traf clearance.

This is both good news and bad. Good news is that coaching to defend set pieces is far from the hardest thing in football. Bad news is that clearly it either hasn't happened well enough or we haven't had the right players to do it. Our defending on set pieces has been a weakness through Evatt's era and while it's definitely better, it's still the weakness that those teams have exploited – Plymouth, Portsmouth, Wigan and Wednesday all went in front against us through set pieces, and although we fought back for draws against three of them, it still arguably cost us wins and in one case even a draw.
Yeah, clear area for improvement. My main gripe is you might mentally discount brainfarts leading to goals in a game we won, but just because they didn't cost us that day doesn't mean they wouldn't next time out.

I though Aimson had a decent game yesterday, both defensively and it felt like he's had some coaching with his forward play. It seemed to me a bit more composed. Less panicked. I think the MF also worked harder to give him better options.

If Johnston was as good defensively as going forwards, he's probably not playing for us in L1. Hopefully through close season, they can work that aspect and bring in competition for the pair.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by jmjhb » Sun May 01, 2022 10:54 am

I will counter with the argument that it's evolution, not revolution - tweaks rather than a radical overhaul, and it's glaringly obvious to everyone where we need to improve.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by officer_dibble » Sun May 01, 2022 11:17 am

I look at JDB and think to improve (and finish in the top two) we need players as good as him to sign - at least one in defence and quite probably one in midfield. Can we afford that?

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun May 01, 2022 11:23 am

officer_dibble wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:17 am
I look at JDB and think to improve (and finish in the top two) we need players as good as him to sign - at least one in defence and quite probably one in midfield. Can we afford that?
It's summer, so yes. With the caveats that we are assuming our player ID is as good as ever and this legendary sales pitch still works.

The sort of work that we couldn't afford last summer and is nigh impossible in a January window is doable now.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 11:41 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:23 am
officer_dibble wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:17 am
I look at JDB and think to improve (and finish in the top two) we need players as good as him to sign - at least one in defence and quite probably one in midfield. Can we afford that?
It's summer, so yes. With the caveats that we are assuming our player ID is as good as ever and this legendary sales pitch still works.

The sort of work that we couldn't afford last summer and is nigh impossible in a January window is doable now.
That's starting to creep towards positivity, if I might say...For this thread, the cost of the electricity for the floodlights will take away any transfer budget that we may have accumulated.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Bruce Rioja » Sun May 01, 2022 11:42 am

We're two centre backs (Eoghan O'Connell + 1) and 1 Fossey (or similar) away from being a very decent squad/side. We absolutely need to sort out basic coaching issues though, especially set pieces. Yesterday de Trafford pulled off an excellent far post save - he needed to because Fleetwood had two completely unmarked men there. It drives me fecking mad.
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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by GhostoftheBok » Sun May 01, 2022 11:45 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:41 am
That's starting to creep towards positivity, if I might say...For this thread, the cost of the electricity for the floodlights will take away any transfer budget that we may have accumulated.
Also scouting is pointless, because the past isn't prologue and the future is fundamentally unknowable. Just because a player has been good doesn't mean they will be for us, so we might as well make all signings at random and then just wait for death.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Worthy4England » Sun May 01, 2022 11:51 am

GhostoftheBok wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:45 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:41 am
That's starting to creep towards positivity, if I might say...For this thread, the cost of the electricity for the floodlights will take away any transfer budget that we may have accumulated.
Also scouting is pointless, because the past isn't prologue and the future is fundamentally unknowable. Just because a player has been good doesn't mean they will be for us, so we might as well make all signings at random and then just wait for death.
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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Prufrock » Sun May 01, 2022 1:22 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 11:42 am
We're two centre backs (Eoghan O'Connell + 1) and 1 Fossey (or similar) away from being a very decent squad/side. We absolutely need to sort out basic coaching issues though, especially set pieces. Yesterday de Trafford pulled off an excellent far post save - he needed to because Fleetwood had two completely unmarked men there. It drives me fecking mad.
Thought Thomason had his best game for ages yesterday but he just completely switched off on that. Ball watching.
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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by GhostoftheBok » Mon May 02, 2022 4:20 am

Prufrock wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 1:22 pm
Thought Thomason had his best game for ages yesterday but he just completely switched off on that. Ball watching.
Herein lies the rub.

We are at a stage now where we will start to see diminishing returns on the coaching side. The team has its patterns down, the defensive shape is pretty good and we can switch systems reasonably well. It can definitely improve, but the tactical issues are no longer the fundamental stumbling block. We are a good footballing side. DSB will cite set pieces as a caveat and he would be right to do so, so I'll get in there first.

A genuine leap forward (from a top 10 club to THE top club in the division) needs to come from adding quality to the squad. Other clubs like Sunderland are arguably held back by their coaching and tactical familiarity, but we are definitely held back by having a slightly inferior squad to the best sides at this level.

We can't teach Thomo to concentrate or read the game better overnight. We can't make Aimson or Williams faster. There's nothing wrong with any of those players, there are just better players than them at other ambitious clubs - and that might be true of too many players in our squad for us to crack the top two.

We finished 10 points off 6th, which was impressive given our winter slump....but we were 19 points off top.

This lot could win the league next season, but we need to be in a position where Evatt can genuinely feel his team should win the league. We're a good distance off that just yet.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon May 02, 2022 8:36 am

Worthy4England wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:53 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:31 am
(Set piece blather)
Yeah, clear area for improvement. My main gripe is you might mentally discount brainfarts leading to goals in a game we won, but just because they didn't cost us that day doesn't mean they wouldn't next time out.
Oh for sure. TBH i only studied the non-wins for reason of time. I’m sure brainfarts and set piece disasters lurk in the wind too - eg Fleetwood’s second yesterday and the aforementioned Tomo switch-off.

I keep coming back to the old Chad Auerbach (?) quote about how top-level baseball isn’t about occasional brilliance, it’s never doing anything wrong. You don’t want an erratic fire alarm or lifeboat that’s 9/10 one week and 4/10 the next. Same with defenders and goalkeepers.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon May 02, 2022 11:28 am

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon May 02, 2022 8:36 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:53 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 10:31 am
(Set piece blather)
Yeah, clear area for improvement. My main gripe is you might mentally discount brainfarts leading to goals in a game we won, but just because they didn't cost us that day doesn't mean they wouldn't next time out.
Oh for sure. TBH i only studied the non-wins for reason of time. I’m sure brainfarts and set piece disasters lurk in the wind too - eg Fleetwood’s second yesterday and the aforementioned Tomo switch-off.

I keep coming back to the old Chad Auerbach (?) quote about how top-level baseball isn’t about occasional brilliance, it’s never doing anything wrong. You don’t want an erratic fire alarm or lifeboat that’s 9/10 one week and 4/10 the next. Same with defenders and goalkeepers.
You can extend that to football in general. It’s not about being able to win 7-0 or have most of the ball. It’s about consistency of results. Wigan were functional this season. You can argue they never played as well as we did in some parts. But they could win game after game in an efficient way regardless of opposition. They didn’t have to play well to win those games. Which is the sign of a side destined for promotion. Rotherham the same to some extent. Functional but they didn’t rely on brilliance or individual talent performing to win.

If you really want promotion you need a side that has that consistency. I look at Todd’s promotion side and yea they had outstanding players but they also rarely missed a beat. There were goals from all over and we could win games multiple different ways. We didn’t dominate every game.

I think so far our main weakness has been an inability to grind out results against the odds. We’ve shown flashes of that towards the end of the season but arguably that’s the big box to Rick next season. You can’t afford too many Burtons if you want to be up there. Nor too many home games that slip through poor defending from a corner.

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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by TANGODANCER » Mon May 02, 2022 11:56 am

Guessing (hoping); Young Trafford, Rico, Dapo, Dion, Jon Dadi, Sadlier, Dempsey, Morley, Fossey all retained plus Evatts choice of the rest. Some obviously subject to recovery back to full fitness, Lee, Sheehan, Isgrove? No guarantees there. I'm somehow doubtful of M.J Williams. Don't know why...

Then again, football fanance will upset any apple-carts.
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Re: The Pessimist's Guide to 22/23

Post by truewhite15 » Mon May 02, 2022 6:00 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Mon May 02, 2022 11:56 am
Guessing (hoping); Young Trafford, Rico, Dapo, Dion, Jon Dadi, Sadlier, Dempsey, Morley, Fossey all retained plus Evatts choice of the rest. Some obviously subject to recovery back to full fitness, Lee, Sheehan, Isgrove? No guarantees there. I'm somehow doubtful of M.J Williams. Don't know why...

Then again, football fanance will upset any apple-carts.
The vast majority of those you've named there are under contract anyway, Tango, and therefore unlikely to be named on any "retained/released" list. Trafford and Fossey aren't ours to retain or otherwise - they'd require bonafide transfers from their parent clubs.

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