League One, 2022/23

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Barry Fry as Director of Football

Oh, for our club to be under the steady footballing stewardship of a man who's poor managerial skills he tried to pass off as being the ill-doings of a Gypsy curse, to be combatted by taking a piss in the four corners of the pitch.

Quite so. I was offered the opportunity to interview Fry last year, but passed it on to a friend. Apparently he's a lovely bloke, but yeah - when casting for a DoF, you don't really want a former manager most famous for his dodgy chairmen and supermarket-sweep transactions.

The pattern of Peterborough managers suggests there aren't too many who want to work with Baz and his overbearingly pompous chairman/owner MacAnthony – although one or two do seem co-dependent.

Darren Ferguson 4 Jan, 2023 ?
Grant McCann 25 Feb, 2022 4 Jan, 2023
Darren Ferguson 27 Jan, 2019 22 Feb, 2022
Steve Evans 01 Mar, 2018 26 Jan, 2019
Grant McCann 23 Apr, 2016 26 Feb, 2018
Graham Westley 21 Sep, 2015 23 Apr, 2016
(Grant McCann 08 Sep, 2015 21 Sep, 2015 - caretaker)
David Robertson 21 Feb, 2015 08 Sep, 2015
Darren Ferguson 12 Jan, 2011 21 Feb, 2015
Gary Johnson 06 Apr, 2010 10 Jan, 2011
Jim Gannon 02 Feb, 2010 06 Apr, 2010
Mark Cooper 16 Nov, 2009 01 Feb, 2010
Darren Ferguson 21 Jan, 2007 09 Nov, 2009

[boltonboris]

Go and get Darren Ferguson, Gareth

[Bruce Rioja]

I keep meaning to check if Warne has ostracised any Derby players, for instance.

Ah, that's an easy one. It'll be anyone who isn't 6'2", built like a brick shithouse and can still sprint within Olympic qualifying times.

Ha! Or anyone who doesn't like bob-hats.

(But yeah - I wondered about Barkhuizen.... still playing for now, but may not still be in favour by February...)

Not sure he set the world alight vs us...(Barkhuizen)...obviously only one game, but I wasn't sat there thinking we'd missed a true gem..

So, I've been clocking Tom Barkhuizen over the past couple of weeks, and whereas he certainly isn't a 'typical' Warne type, he is scoring goals. Surely they're not about to let an in-form goalscorer leave simply because he doesn't fit the mold, as it were?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Nah he’ll probably stay. They’re ticking over nicely.

[BWFC_Insane]

Aimson interview says we are gunning for the top 2. Now whilst we've had a very good run against some of the better sides in the division - a run I think has impressed most of us, I'm not convinced that realistically this is a go. We are 11 points adrift of second. And you have three very consistent teams in the race for that, plus ourselves and Derby chasing - feels like a lot. Not impossible - the sort of run we had second half of league 2 would potentially do it. But feels more difficult in this league. We've probably drawn a few too many against Derby, Plymouth, Lincoln etc...games we should have won.

However, if we can have a real good crack at it the advantage could be getting into the top 4 which I think helps massively in the play offs. Second leg at home for me is a big thing.

[GhostoftheBok]

Aimson interview says we are gunning for the top 2. Now whilst we've had a very good run against some of the better sides in the division - a run I think has impressed most of us, I'm not convinced that realistically this is a go. We are 11 points adrift of second. And you have three very consistent teams in the race for that, plus ourselves and Derby chasing - feels like a lot. Not impossible - the sort of run we had second half of league 2 would potentially do it. But feels more difficult in this league. We've probably drawn a few too many against Derby, Plymouth, Lincoln etc...games we should have won.

However, if we can have a real good crack at it the advantage could be getting into the top 4 which I think helps massively in the play offs. Second leg at home for me is a big thing.

Agree with this.

We have got to make top 2 the aim, because of course you do. That's the standard we have to set and we have to basically be thinking of going undefeated until the end of the season.

However, we'd probably top-out at 3rd even with an exceptional run.

Aiming for the autos should give us the best shot at being the form side in the play-offs.

[Worthy4England]

If teams carry on, on their current trajectory (ppg * games left)

Plymouth would end with 99,
Sheff 97,
Ipswich 90,
Derby 81 and
us 78.

This means we'd have to go at 2.8 ppg for the rest of the season, to beat Plymouth, 2.7 would beat Sheffield, 2.35 to beat Ipswich and 1.9 to beat Derby.

The top 2 are way ahead of last season's tally at a similar stage, when they had 51 and 50 points respectively (and ahead of the tally for 2017, last time we got outta this hole ) but Rotherham and Wigan had games in hand (2 and 5), so realistically probably a similar table on equal games, with Pies being a little ahead of where Plymouth are at - we're 6 points behind where we were in 2017, having scored 2 less and conceded 1 more.

As it happened, both Rotherham and Wigan dropped somewhat from this point forwards, to get 1.9 ppg and 1.833 ppg respectively. If the same thing occurred, then we'd still be chasing 92/93 points which would men going at 2.35 per game (or so)...

Even then, there isn't a lot of maths that get's you nearby. 48 points from 20 games be like 14 wins, 6 draws and no losses...(or 16 wins, a draw and 3 losses). 14 is the lowest number of wins we could spin and get to 48 points, I think.

[GhostoftheBok]

What about PPG over the past 10 games? 1.6 I think we're on.

[Worthy4England]

What about PPG over the past 10 games? 1.6 I think we're on.

1.7 ppg

[GhostoftheBok]

What about PPG over the past 10 games? 1.6 I think we're on.

1.7 ppg

How much over our seasonal PPG and 10 games prior to the middle of the window have we performed after previous January windows?

Then we can work out what kind of average points gain we are getting from January under Evatt.

[Worthy4England]

What about PPG over the past 10 games? 1.6 I think we're on.

1.7 ppg

How much over our seasonal PPG and 10 games prior to the middle of the window have we performed after previous January windows?

Then we can work out what kind of average points gain we are getting from January under Evatt.

Last couple of seasons (from this date forwards) - last year PPG 2.09, year before PPG 2.22 - prior to this date we'd been going at 1.16 and 1.21 respectively. Obviously it's harder to show the same level of improvement this year as we're currently already doing 1.7ish...

[Prufrock]

What about PPG over the past 10 games? 1.6 I think we're on.

1.7 ppg

How much over our seasonal PPG and 10 games prior to the middle of the window have we performed after previous January windows?

Then we can work out what kind of average points gain we are getting from January under Evatt.

Hopefully about 3.5 PPG

[GhostoftheBok]

Last couple of seasons (from this date forwards) - last year PPG 2.09, year before PPG 2.22 - prior to this date we'd been going at 1.16 and 1.21 respectively. Obviously it's harder to show the same level of improvement this year as we're currently already doing 1.7ish...

Yeah, but we can look at percentage bounce and then try to factor out variables like slow starts, injuries, etc.

I'm mostly just trying to get Markham a pay increase. Let's find out how much he's worth.

[GhostoftheBok]

Hopefully about 3.5 PPG

Plenty seem to think we should get bonus points for the badge, certainly.

[Worthy4England]

Last couple of seasons (from this date forwards) - last year PPG 2.09, year before PPG 2.22 - prior to this date we'd been going at 1.16 and 1.21 respectively. Obviously it's harder to show the same level of improvement this year as we're currently already doing 1.7ish...

Yeah, but we can look at percentage bounce and then try to factor out variables like slow starts, injuries, etc.

I'm mostly just trying to get Markham a pay increase. Let's find out how much he's worth.

Oh - if he's short of an agent, he can 1) work out his own bloody stats or 2) meet my professional service fees!

[GhostoftheBok]

Oh - if he's short of an agent, he can 1) work out his own bloody stats or 2) meet my professional service fees!

15% of any increase goes to you, Worthy. I can't work for a third party in football at the minute, as my ex is the jealous type, so I wave my fees. Now make with the numbers

[BWFC_Insane]

Last couple of seasons (from this date forwards) - last year PPG 2.09, year before PPG 2.22 - prior to this date we'd been going at 1.16 and 1.21 respectively. Obviously it's harder to show the same level of improvement this year as we're currently already doing 1.7ish...

Yeah, but we can look at percentage bounce and then try to factor out variables like slow starts, injuries, etc.

I'm mostly just trying to get Markham a pay increase. Let's find out how much he's worth.

I'm not up for giving out performance bonuses for half season improvements. Season starts in August. I don't think that's a new piece of information.

[Worthy4England]

Oh - if he's short of an agent, he can 1) work out his own bloody stats or 2) meet my professional service fees!

15% of any increase goes to you, Worthy. I can't work for a third party in football at the minute, as my ex is the jealous type, so I wave my fees. Now make with the numbers

To Pru's point, it sorta doesn't work - if we hit the average increase for Mid-Jan to end of season, from the previous 2 years, we'd increase by about 82% - which would mean we'd get 3.1 ppg between now and the end of the season. I'm not a betting man, but I think I'd take that one as a "not happening"...

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[GhostoftheBok]

To Pru's point, it sorta doesn't work - if we hit the average increase for Mid-Jan to end of season, from the previous 2 years, we'd increase by about 82% - which would mean we'd get 3.1 ppg between now and the end of the season. I'm not a betting man, but I think I'd take that one as a "not happening"...

Hence needing to weed out the variables, as I mentioned in my previous post. You need to be able to factor out things like squad development, injuries, underperformance of XG, etc in order to get to any kind of usable baseline to work from.

I mean it's doable as a thought exercise (I may set my retired actuary on it, as he gets a kick out of unusual tasks), but at an estimate it's a proper analysts' two weeks' work. You'd earn your professional fee, certainly.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Can we factor in Shit Pitch?