League One, 2022/23

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Have to admit I would be surprised and disappointed now if we don't make play-offs. There may be reasons - say, for instance, a certain loanee goalkeeper gets injured - but I would still feel my heart ache. Wouldn't mean I'd be daubing bedsheets, like.

Also haven't given up on top two because I know Evatt's sides are capable of good runs and, just as crucially, other sides are wobbling. Wouldn't have it as odds-on or even likely, but it's a possibility and to say otherwise is IMO daft. If we aim to catch up we will presumably be on better form than if we aim to tread water.

[Worthy4England]

Fairly sure Evatt said something along the lines of "16 Cup Finals"...Why would any team not aim to catch up and win every game? We should want to win every time we cross the whitewash...

[BWFC_Insane]

Have to admit I would be surprised and disappointed now if we don't make play-offs. There may be reasons - say, for instance, a certain loanee goalkeeper gets injured - but I would still feel my heart ache. Wouldn't mean I'd be daubing bedsheets, like.

Also haven't given up on top two because I know Evatt's sides are capable of good runs and, just as crucially, other sides are wobbling. Wouldn't have it as odds-on or even likely, but it's a possibility and to say otherwise is IMO daft. If we aim to catch up we will presumably be on better form than if we aim to tread water.

Yeah win every game and see what happens. I’m not suggesting we slack off. Far from it. We have work to do to get a play off place. We are still probably 5-7 wins away from being sure of that.

If we want to go up automatically I suspect we need to win all our remaining games or maybe all bar one. That to me feels a bridge too far given what we have available and the fact we are finding fixtures catching up with us.

But who knows? I’d certainly be as things move on considering some tactical resting to keep players fit for the end of the season and also to ensure we don’t burn out.

My main fear for the end of the season and our hopes is injury and burn out. We can already see signs of this and there is a reason that often more ‘efficient’ teams win play offs. See Allardyce’s Bolton vs Moyes Preston for example.

[jmjhb]

I can't see us missing out on the playoffs. That would mean relegation form for the remaining fixtures, and we are likely to be one of the freshest teams come April

[BWFC_Insane]

I can't see us missing out on the playoffs. That would mean relegation form for the remaining fixtures, and we are likely to be one of the freshest teams come April

Depends.

If we got say 15 points from our last 12 games that’s across a season 57 points. That’s well above relegation form and whilst 77 may be enough it’s not beyond all possibility that you could miss out on such a points total.

[knobpolisher]

Re DSBs comment. We have twelve to play and currently on 62 points if we average 2 points per game that's 86 points, more than adequate for top six. Eminently doable in my opinion, is it top 2 form ? Not out of the question, maybe 3 points short but a bit of luck and a fair wind could see us achieve our aim. Having studied our last 8 fixtures I guarantee every one of our top 8 rivals would swap our fixtures for theirs.
Keep the faith.

[Worthy4England]

I can't see us missing out on the playoffs. That would mean relegation form for the remaining fixtures, and we are likely to be one of the freshest teams come April

Depends.

If we got say 15 points from our last 12 games that’s across a season 57 points. That’s well above relegation form and whilst 77 may be enough it’s not beyond all possibility that you could miss out on such a points total.

For sure, mate. We're 2 points ahead of last time we got promoted on 34 games...Let's see how it pans...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Form extrapolation table updates. Usual explainer/caveat: this is what would happen if the top teams' recent form (last 6/8/10/12) were to continue until season's end, which obviously can't happen as we all play each other, but on we go.
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Looks like we shouldn't have been surprised by Barnsley beating Derby: on last 6/8/10 form they're on course for automatic promotion, and at the current lick they're on course for 90+pts in all four scenarios. (We're high-80s, low-90s.) Plymouth are now dropping into the playoffs in three of four scenarios; Ipswich aren't finishing higher than 5th, but at least they've recovered enough to stay in the play-offs in 3 of 4 scenarios; on the other hand, Derby's last-6 form would have them dropping out of the playoffs.

What to take from it? Whatever you want. I've done a few of these now and there have been some consistent findings: Wednesday win the league, we're usually 3rd or 4th. Other things change, and I'm sure they will continue to, especially with six-pointers: one way or other, Barnsley will have a big say in promotion (they play Plymouth at home 11/03, Wednesday home 21/03, Ipswich home 25/03). The internal optimist hopes they f**k up some of our rivals before falling away themselves.

[Mar]

Requirements for finishing second:

2021-22: 90 pts
2020-21: 81 pts
2019-20: 62 pts (covid shortened)
2018-19: 89 pts
2017-18: 88 pts
2016-17: 83 pts
2015-16: 85 pts
2014-15: 90 pts
2013-14: 87 pts
2012-13: 80 pts
2011-12: 91 pts

So the 88+ pts that DSB is predicting from the last few games, would get us automatic promotion in over half of the seasons listed above.

Whoever gets that many points and not get promoted should count themselves unlucky. This year seems like its going to be a season where it's a high points total.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

FT Sheff Wed 1-0 Posh
FT Plymouth 2-0 Charlton
FT Ipswich 4-0 Burton
FT Derby 2-2 Shrewsbury
FT Bristol Rovers 2-2 Barnsley
FT Wycombe 1-1 Exeter

Nearest side below us to win was 10th-placed Pompey, still 12pts back. Mighty Derby were 2-0 up at home to Shrewsbury but have now only won 2 in the last 6 league games.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Extrapolation update:
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Wanderers still on course for play-offs, but playing away in the second leg. Barnsley still the (recent) form team, barring the serene Wednesday. Ipswich have got over their wobble.

[bw@bw]

Extrapolation update:
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Screenshot 2023-03-04 at 19.42.56.png
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Wanderers still on course for play-offs, but playing away in the second leg. Barnsley still the (recent) form team, barring the serene Wednesday. Ipswich have got over their wobble.

I think that Pompey ought to be in that list

On a good run since they changed manager

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Extrapolation update:
Wanderers still on course for play-offs, but playing away in the second leg. Barnsley still the (recent) form team, barring the serene Wednesday. Ipswich have got over their wobble.

I think that Pompey ought to be in that list

On a good run since they changed manager

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Could be a threat if they keep up their last-6 form. Although maintaining good form into longer spells has recently been problematic for just about everybody bar Wednesday.

[sonicthewhite]

A good set of results for us tonight would be;

Barnsley - L
Ipswich - L
Peterbrough/Shrewsbury - D
Wycombe - L
Plymouth/Derby - D

And as I type this Wycombe take the lead

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

HT Barnsley 2-0 Pompey
HT Ipswich 1-0 Accy
HT Posh 1-1 Shrews
HT Wycombe 1-0 Fleetwood
(35 mins) Plymouth 0-1 Derby

Hmm. Fifth as it stands

[DJBlu]

HT Barnsley 2-0 Pompey
HT Ipswich 1-0 Accy
HT Posh 1-1 Shrews
HT Wycombe 1-0 Fleetwood
(35 mins) Plymouth 0-1 Derby

Hmm. Fifth as it stands

6th by name or due to the fact Barnsley have won one more game than us.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

6th by name or due to the fact Barnsley have won one more game than us.

Nope:
9.2 If two or more Clubs have the same number of points, goal difference and goals scored the highest placed Club shall be determined by the respective League records against each other, taking into account in order of precedence, points gained, goal difference and goals scored.

But yeah, not good.

[DJBlu]

6th by name or due to the fact Barnsley have won one more game than us.

Nope:
9.2 If two or more Clubs have the same number of points, goal difference and goals scored the highest placed Club shall be determined by the respective League records against each other, taking into account in order of precedence, points gained, goal difference and goals scored.

But yeah, not good.

Damn that 9.2 rule, always catches me out.

[sonicthewhite]

Pompey pull one back

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Pompey pull one back

Their only shot on target to Barnsley's 7

It's now Barnsley 3-1 Pompey and Ipswich 2-0 Accy