League One, 2022/23

Where fellow sufferers gather to share the pain, longing and unrequited transfer requests that make being a Wanderer what it is...

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League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:32 pm

Thought we could use a thread to keep an eye on / compare ourselves with rivals, now and as the season goes on.

Can kick it off with this piece spat out by the Manny Evening News "supercomputer" (is this 1987?) which, it says here, predicts one team has a 47% chance of winning the league. Seems high, supercomputer: are your fans not cooling you enough?

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... s-24528533

(Also: would it kill you to put the damn table in, MEN?)

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Prufrock » Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:18 pm

Ha! I love* all that bullshit. Our "computer" has come up with some mental predictions we're just going to publish as "science" without checking whether the fact they seem mental doesn't suggest our algorithm isn't that great.

Wasn't expecting it to be them, either!


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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Bruce Rioja » Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:47 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:32 pm
the Manny Evening News "supercomputer"
If it's from the same place the MET Office got theirs from, expect the exact opposite.
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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Worthy4England » Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:45 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:47 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:32 pm
the Manny Evening News "supercomputer"
If it's from the same place the MET Office got theirs from, expect the exact opposite.
I've run this through my algorithm and concluded, it's Reach's super-computer as the MEN doesn't possess one!

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by KeyserSoze » Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:59 pm

I prefer the good old days when we used to predict the outcome of football matches by way of octopus.
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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Bruce Rioja » Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:32 pm

KeyserSoze wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:59 pm
I prefer the good old days when we used to predict the outcome of football matches by way of octopus.
Years ago (pre Lottery), an old mate of mine used to reserve every Wednesday evening for poring over the pools coupon, absolutely convinced that he was going to hit the jackpot one day, and that it was merely a matter of time.

To date, and to the best of my knowledge, he's won as much on the pools as I have. :D
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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by TANGODANCER » Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:39 am

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:32 pm

Years ago (pre Lottery), an old mate of mine used to reserve every Wednesday evening for poring over the pools coupon, absolutely convinced that he was going to hit the jackpot one day, and that it was merely a matter of time.

To date, and to the best of my knowledge, he's won as much on the pools as I have. :D
My mother (God Bless) was the same. She did the pools by favourite numbers, picked Grand National winners by name or with a pin. Mind you, she did back Red Alligator and Nicholas Silver when they won, but sixpence each way wasn't ever going to bother Horace Bachelor or William Hill. :D
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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Harry Genshaw » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:06 am

I was surprised at it being Wycombe, although despite losing one or two they'll be the same, belligerent, time wasters they usually are and will certainly be top half.

I dont share the super computers pessimism re a couple of the promoted sides either. Vale and Bristol Rovers will be ok I reckon. Forest Green, who limped over the line and have a new manager, look more vulnerable to me.
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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by The_Gun » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:16 am

I'd be interested to get the thoughts of Ghost or Brommers on the signings being made by our potential rivals, as I still don't know most of the players at our level.

Derby have signed a few players I have heard of, but very much seem to be shopping at the experienced end of the market. Perhaps a bit of a shit or bust season for them, as they'll have to hope they can put together a coherent team very quickly under a rookie manager.

Huge turnover at McDons. Lost some very good players but look to have signed some good ones as well. Fingers crossed they take some time to find their feet.

Ipswich, Wednesday and Plymouth maybe the most threatening of last seasons rivals to my untrained eye. Charlton and Portsmouth perhaps also, but they have more to find.

The three relegated teams I have no idea about, but I'd guess will all be there or thereabouts.

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:18 am

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:06 am
I was surprised at it being Wycombe, although despite losing one or two they'll be the same, belligerent, time wasters they usually are and will certainly be top half.

I dont share the super computers pessimism re a couple of the promoted sides either. Vale and Bristol Rovers will be ok I reckon. Forest Green, who limped over the line and have a new manager, look more vulnerable to me.
Also lost several key players. And the Third is now Champo Lite, so they will be playing a lot of much "bigger clubs"

I was surprised to see Bristol Rovers so firmly written off, although I suppose Barton is a timebomb.

Wycombe will be buggardly but they are an ageing team - on average their starting XI was easily the eldest last season. In a related note, they've exchanged experienced goalkeeper David Stockdale (he's gone to Weds as their back-up) for young United loanee Nathan Bishop, so it may largely depend on how well he does. Also you wonder how long Gareth Ainsworth, who clearly wanted the Blackburn job, can keep the energy up. They could win the league, finish mid-table or anything in between. Clearly I'm not a supercomputer.

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:29 am

The_Gun wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:16 am
I'd be interested to get the thoughts of Ghost or Brommers on the signings being made by our potential rivals, as I still don't know most of the players at our level.

Derby have signed a few players I have heard of, but very much seem to be shopping at the experienced end of the market. Perhaps a bit of a shit or bust season for them, as they'll have to hope they can put together a coherent team very quickly under a rookie manager.

Huge turnover at McDons. Lost some very good players but look to have signed some good ones as well. Fingers crossed they take some time to find their feet.

Ipswich, Wednesday and Plymouth maybe the most threatening of last seasons rivals to my untrained eye. Charlton and Portsmouth perhaps also, but they have more to find.

The three relegated teams I have no idea about, but I'd guess will all be there or thereabouts.
Yeah I'm with you on just about all of this. I'm not the most clued-up on rivals or their players, so I'm hoping this thread will help us keep tabs. Ideally in a promotion race :mrgreen:

Personally more worried about Wednesday, Ipswich and maybe Plymouth than Wycombe or McDons – the latter, as you say, have made major changes. So, clearly, have Derby, who could literally go either way: not beyond conceptualising they go "do a Hill" and plummet straight through, although I think they'll have enough to avoid that and could, with momentum, be up the right end.

Pompey are interesting. The Cowleys took over in March 2021 so this is their first real summer rebuild - there'll have been changes last summer but these things take time thanks to contracts. Statistically they played a very hard press last season so they may be recruiting to that; however, they've lost a couple of stellar loanees in yon Citeh goalkeeper and Hayden Carter, the wide centre-back they borrowed off Blackburn. Again, a rebuild can make you better or worse.

Charlton get mentioned every summer - I suppose one day they might come good but hopefully not yet...

I know Brommers has been keeping tabs on incomings, but possibly not outgoings, which are just as crucial and a race we seem to be winning in terms of keeping crown jewels.

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:42 pm

Oxford sign Yanic Wildschut...

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by nicholaldo » Sun Jul 24, 2022 4:14 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:29 am
I know Brommers has been keeping tabs on incomings, but possibly not outgoings, which are just as crucial and a race we seem to be winning in terms of keeping crown jewels.

I did think when reading your post about squad depth and financial limits in the Pre-Season thread earlier just how striking it is that there's been practically no suggestion at all any of our players might be leaving, crown jewel or otherwise.

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:29 pm

nicholaldo wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 4:14 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:29 am
I know Brommers has been keeping tabs on incomings, but possibly not outgoings, which are just as crucial and a race we seem to be winning in terms of keeping crown jewels.
I did think when reading your post about squad depth and financial limits in the Pre-Season thread earlier just how striking it is that there's been practically no suggestion at all any of our players might be leaving, crown jewel or otherwise.
Aye. We've become accustomed to churn, certainly over the last five years but arguably dating back to Allardyce's trolley-dashes. Either by accident or desire, we've been losing players at a rate of knots every window. Even this time we lost, IDK, half a dozen - but they were fringe players. Santos was tied down, the Dapo talk seems to have quietened.

Helps that unlike many teams, we haven't got a manager clearing out his predecessor's dross. Evatt is now the division's sixth longest-serving manager, and even among those who've been in the job longer, many have remedial work to do: Exeter's Matt Taylor has to retool a promoted squad, Gareth Ainsworth has to rejuvenate an ageing Wycombe, Jono Coleman has the usual Accy shuffle of losing his best players (Butcher, Bishop, Sykes) to bigger teams and pinching overlooked ones for the next generation. The other two are Oxford's Karl Robinson, who's lost an eight-goal 40-game midfielder to Bristol City and a 30-game centre-back to Burnley, and Cambridge's Mark Bonner, who lost one of his best players to us for nowt.

It's not everything, but it's not nothing either. It's Evatt's squad, with Evatt's players, and he's happy with what he's got - although I still think we might see a face or two arrive yet when prices drop next month.

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:25 pm

As it's a week to the start of the season, I guess we can start looking at what rivals have done over summer. First up, Wembley losers Wycombe.

It's been a quiet summer at Adams Park. Gareth Ainsworth's been around a while and signed a new deal; his squad didn't change wildly either when they were promoted to the Champo in 2020 or when they were relegated back down from it in 2021, so it was hardly likely to be Year Zero when they lost last summer's play-off final.

Ainsworth said: “We’ve got a good group of players here and there will not be wholesale changes. We are covered so there is no panic yet."

What they do might need to do is rejuvenate a little. In 19 League One games last season Wycombe's starting XI averaged 30 years or more; the division's other 23 teams managed that a total of once between them (Sheff Weds, since you ask).

That's started to happen with the loss of experienced players at the front and back of the squad. Target man Bayo Akinfenwa retired at 40, while 450-game goalkeeper David Stockdale (36) has joined Sheff Weds on a free.

Wycombe have been further weakened by the departure of Anthony Stewart. The 29-year-old centre-back played 292 games for the Chairboys – 36 in the league last season – but turned down a new deal and flitted to Aberdeen on a free.

With Stockdale's understudy Adam Przybek also leaving (for Walsall), that leaves a hole in the goal. They're hoping to fill it with young Man United loanee Nathan Bishop, who was lent to Mansfield last season. As we've seen, kiddie-keeper loans can go either way.

Wycombe's confirmed incomings are also young – nominatively in the case of midfielder Jack Young (21), who played twice on loan for the Chairboys this spring (adding to five games in a previous spell at Tranmere) before being recalled to Newcastle, who released him this summer.

Another big club reject is D’Mani Mellor, a 21-year-old centre-forward whom Man Utd lent to Salford last summer; he played three times without scoring. Coming from the other direction is Jasper Pattenden, a 20-year-old winger who spent last season playing for seventh-tier Worthing. They've also signed 18-year-old attacking midfielder Christie Ward from Brockenhurst.

Other than that, quiet. Perhaps they're having a nap. Sam Vokes (33 in October), Joe Jacobson (36 in November), Daryl Horgan (30 in August) and Dom Gape (a mere kid who doesn't even turn 28 until September) all signed extensions nice and early, and Garath McCleary (35) is still there. There's still time in the window, but you have to say the squad has been weakened and the replacements have a whole lot to prove. As for Dad's Army, they have the knowhow, but do they have the legs?

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:10 pm

Another supercomputer! This one predicts Wycombe won't even make the playoffs, and is somehow confident that Derby will win the league. Supercomputers, eh?
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... eague-one/

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:00 pm

MK DONS

If Wycombe reacted to play-off failure with stasis, their semi-final victims MK Dons have gone in the opposite direction – albeit more through necessity than intent.

The franchise may not have reached the Championship, but several of the players who made last season a success did: Burnley-bound Scott Twine, who contributed 20 goals and 13 assists in 44 league games last season; centre-back Harry Darling, who contributed a Wheeversesque 7 goals from 41 league games before joining old boss Russell Martin at Swansea; and powerful midfielder David Kasumu, spirited away by Huddersfield after featuring in half the league matches, including 12 of the last 14 during the doomed attempt to outsprint Wigan and Rotherham.

With another six players released, it’s a big turnover in the full first summer in charge for Liam Manning, the Eddie Howe tribute act who makes 40-year-old Ian Evatt look ancient (he’s not even 37 until next month). And while many a manager will want to make his own mark on the squad, Manning must be fearing the absence of this trio of stars - particularly key defender Darling and the walking goal machine Twine, who averaged a goal or an assist every 115 minutes last season.

Darling’s boots will be filled by Jack Tucker, the ball-playing Gillingham centre-back who preferred MK over Bolton – a straight swap between two players only a couple of months apart in age. Twine's most direct replacement is Will Grigg, finally released from Sunderland where he scored 5 in 47 League One games. Now 31, Grigg will be hoping to rekindle the form that saw him score 8 in 20 on loan at McDons in 2020/21, rather than last season's bit-parting at runners-up Rotherham that saw him amass 2 in 19 league games, the latter on October 2nd.

Another interesting oldie they've signed is Bradley Johnson, the 35-year-old former Blackburn midfielder. Another midfielder fleeing Lancashire is Ethan Robson, the 25yo Blackpool lent to McDons last season, now signed on a free. They've also acquired League One experience in 24yo attacking midfielder Nathan Holland, who racked up 45 third-tier appearances for Oxford in two loans from West Ham before freebieing to Milton Keynes this summer.

Younger summer acquisitions include 20yo striker Matt Dennis (ex Norwich/Arsenal) and 20yo ex-Rochdale midfielder Conor Grant; two midfielders from the Irish Premier, 19yo Darragh Burns and 20yo Dawson Devoy; and a trio of top-flight loanees: Villa's ex-Barça winger Louie Barry, who scored 6 in 14 at Swindon last term, plus goalie Jamie Cumming and defender Henry Lawrence, both of Chelsea.

How will they all fare? Fuctifino. But they need to find goals from somewhere, because most of last season's have gone – and it's not just Twine. They have simply haemhorraged last season's scorers: having lost Twine, Darling, Spurs loanee Troy Parrott (another Champo graduate, with a loan to Preston finalised today), Cardiff loanee Max Watters, our old mate Peter Kioso (or Peter Kiosk to my spellcheck), Mansfield-bound midfielder Hiram Boateng and Matt O'Riley, the midfielder who joined Celtic in January, the Dons have only one of last season's top eight league goalscorers remaining. After Mo Eisa (for it is he), the next-highest scorer still at the club is centre-back Warren O'Hora, who scored... two. And one of those was in a loss at Gillingham.

So everything depends on how well the new signings settle in. The Dons play attractive possession football, but their cutting edge is gone; will they revert to something like the two seasons they spent under Russell Martin, gathering respect but finishing 19th and 13th?

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:07 pm

Cheers DSB, is it fair to say MK Dons took a bit more research than Wycombe? 😳

Have to target finishing above both of those…and doing something we haven’t, beating and scoring against Wycombe!

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:40 pm

officer_dibble wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:07 pm
Cheers DSB, is it fair to say MK Dons took a bit more research than Wycombe? 😳

Have to target finishing above both of those…and doing something we haven’t, beating and scoring against Wycombe!
I had to scratch around a bit more for Wycombe!

I think we can finish above both of them. Our side of that is not giving away daft goals - I’m reasonably confident we have the weapons to score, when all are fit, against even the best teams - but it’s much easier if our defence hasn’t given them a lead to defend.

Being optimistic, I think Wycombe are ageing and MK are weakened, with a raft of gambles as replacements. They could overcome those handicaps but to be honest I’m more worried about other teams, whom I’ll hopefully come on to if time allows. Sheff Weds next.

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Re: League One, 2022/23

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:41 am

Bolton weren’t the only team to end last season in promotion form. From January 1st, Wanderers picked up 47 points from 23 games and were one of three teams to average more than 2ppg – title form, and the fabled summer 2012 target of Coyle and Gartside, our very own Stan and Ollie. MK Dons hoarded 50pts from 23 games, but as we have seen, they have lost key players and their replacements are gambles.

The same can’t be said of SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY, who collected 48pts from the last 23 games. Going into last season it seemed entirely possible that a cash-strapped club still attracting the attention of the EFL’s accountants could “do a Bolton” and crash straight through the third tier into the fourth.

Clearly that didn’t happen, and only a particularly tight promotion race kept them down in the play=offs, where they lost in the semis to eventually promoted Sunderland. Darren Moore’s first full season, having joined the Owls in April just in time for relegation and a bad bout of Covid-induced pneumonia, also brought the gaffer three Manager of the Month nominations.

From January onwards, the only team to beat them by more than one goal was Rotherham. Their final total of 85pts was the club’s third-biggest points haul in history; both their “better” seasons saw them promoted, the second time from this division with Gary Madine scoring 18.

As we have seen with MK Dons, missing promotion can lead to asset-stripping, but Wednesday have retained the majority of their key players. Not only that, they’ve recruited strongly too.

They will miss last season’s loanee goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell, who has returned to Burnley; he’s clearly better than League One, and the only way he will be in the division again is if the Clarets don’t want to loan him to a Championship rival.

The only other regular from last season whom Wednesday failed to keep was 30-game midfielder Massimo Luongo; he turned down a contract and is still a free agent, and still in his 20s for another two months. Contract talks are ongoing with midfielder Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, said to be interesting Champo suitors.

Wednesday did choose to release some players who featured last season: divisive 9-goal striker Saido Berahino, 31-game defender/midfielder Sam Hutchinson (picked up by Reading) and 30yo centre-back Chey Dunkley, who’s gone to Shrewsbury.

But who’s come in? Some eye-catching names. In a double free-transfer scoop from despairing South Yorkshire rivals Rotherham, Moore signed 19-goal target man Michael Smith and centre-back Michael Ihiekwe, who’s played 183 games in the middle two tiers and is still in his twenties.

They will be joined by another freebie ex-Millers hero with promotion experience: midfielder Will Vaulks, returning to the county after three seasons at Cardiff. Also adding third-tier experience on freebies are Wimbledon centre-back Ben Heneghan and former Wycombe (et al) goalkeeper David Stockdale.

With Peacock-Farrell gone and sub goalkeeper Joe Wildsmith also leaving – he turned down a contract extension to join Derby (as did winger Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, while we’re at it) – the Owls needed a new netminder. It will either be Stockade or Cameron Dawson: the 27yo Sheffielder has been at Hillsborough for 12 years, although not often as undisputed first-choice, barring a couple of spells in 2018 and early 2020. He spent last season on loan at Exeter, promoted from the fourth tier. Whether either he or Stockade can match Peacock-Farrell’s ability is perhaps the biggest question over Wednesday’s chances.

It’s not all been freebies, either, as Wednesday came out this summer from under a fee embargo. They signed 23yo Norwich centre-back Akin Famewo - another centre-back - on an undisclosed fee after he’d spent the previous two seasons loaned to Charlton. And the other undisclosed fee went to Bristol City for a certain Tyreeq Jamal Adeshina Oliveira Bakinson – the box-to-box midfielder who so impressed our very own GhostoftheBok. He would be a very reasonable replacement for Dele-Bashiru, should the former City youngster shift up a division.

Add in Blackpool loanee left-back Reece James (not that one) and you’ve got a decent summer spree: proven goalscorer, midfield beef and defensive experience. They’ve retained experience Scots internationals Barry Bannan, Callum Patterson and Liam Palmer, plus plenty of non-Caledonian knowhow in Marvin Johnson, Jack Hunt and Lee Gregory.

There’s perhaps a worry that there’s more experience than fresh legs, but this is a grizzled side which hit good form last season and has, except perhaps between the sticks, been strengthened over summer. And while third-tier promotion is no divine right – ask Sunderland, or indeed city rivals Sheffield United who spent half a pre-Wilder decade thinking This Is The Year – it feels a lot like Wednesday will be the team to beat.

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