League One, 2022/23

[GhostoftheBok]

We're in exactly the same position we have been all along. Outperform the teams below us, or at least match them, and we get into the play-offs.

10 games left and ou fate's in our own hands for play-offs and a cup. If we cock it up then so be it, but most would have taken this position at the start of the season.

[BWFC_Insane]

We're in exactly the same position we have been all along. Outperform the teams below us, or at least match them, and we get into the play-offs.

10 games left and ou fate's in our own hands for play-offs and a cup. If we cock it up then so be it, but most would have taken this position at the start of the season.

League placing wise I think it’s the bare minimum given a play off place is on a knife edge. To me I never expected automatics but a play off place absolutely. I’d say thus far we are probably slightly under where I think we should be. I think mostly this arises from the symptom of still suffering these dodgy spells and runs of form that we seem to.

[Worthy4England]

We're in exactly the same position we have been all along. Outperform the teams below us, or at least match them, and we get into the play-offs.

10 games left and ou fate's in our own hands for play-offs and a cup. If we cock it up then so be it, but most would have taken this position at the start of the season.

That's absolutely true. As you would expect. Outperform those below you and you'll finish above them...so in that sense, yeah - if we'd outperformed Sheffield Wednesday we'd have been top of the league right now.

That's not what my post looked at - it's whether with the games left, we're likely to end in top 6 - obvs it's just a view and some maths (so is Barnetto's spreadsheet)

I would say that in most senses it's not exactly the same position at all as when some were suggesting the possibility we could catch the top two, because Plymouth and Ipswich were having their wobble....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

where's your spready coming out after the weekend, Barnetto? I suspect a couple of those columns might have slipped to 7th too...

Gave myself a long weekend off and now I'm back at work I'm interviewing the international Atomic Energy Agency about articles in nuclear non-proliferation treaties...

Given some teams are playing tonight I might do it thereafter

[Worthy4England]

where's your spready coming out after the weekend, Barnetto? I suspect a couple of those columns might have slipped to 7th too...

Gave myself a long weekend off and now I'm back at work I'm interviewing the international Atomic Energy Agency about articles in nuclear non-proliferation treaties...

Given some teams are playing tonight I might do it thereafter

Not unreasonable, mate.

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm interviewing the international Atomic Energy Agency about articles in nuclear non-proliferation treaties...

Cheer up. It's not the end of the world.

[GhostoftheBok]

That's absolutely true. As you would expect. Outperform those below you and you'll finish above them...so in that sense, yeah - if we'd outperformed Sheffield Wednesday we'd have been top of the league right now.

That's not what my post looked at - it's whether with the games left, we're likely to end in top 6 - obvs it's just a view and some maths (so is Barnetto's spreadsheet)

I would say that in most senses it's not exactly the same position at all as when some were suggesting the possibility we could catch the top two, because Plymouth and Ipswich were having their wobble....

Yeah, I understand that - the fact remains, though, that we've had a blip and we still control our own destiny. In previous seasons we've been well out of it and needed a miracle to achieve our goals. We've produced stronger finishes than we had any right to expect.

I'd much rather be where we are now than where we've been previously.

[BWFC_Insane]

That's absolutely true. As you would expect. Outperform those below you and you'll finish above them...so in that sense, yeah - if we'd outperformed Sheffield Wednesday we'd have been top of the league right now.

That's not what my post looked at - it's whether with the games left, we're likely to end in top 6 - obvs it's just a view and some maths (so is Barnetto's spreadsheet)

I would say that in most senses it's not exactly the same position at all as when some were suggesting the possibility we could catch the top two, because Plymouth and Ipswich were having their wobble....

Yeah, I understand that - the fact remains, though, that we've had a blip and we still control our own destiny. In previous seasons we've been well out of it and needed a miracle to achieve our goals. We've produced stronger finishes than we had any right to expect.

I'd much rather be where we are now than where we've been previously.

When are you referencing as ‘previously’?

[GhostoftheBok]

When are you referencing as ‘previously’?

The last two seasons, where we've been playing catch up to get to where we felt we "should" be.

First season we went on a hell of a run to go up. Last season we fell well short of the play offs. Strong finishes both times, but we left ourselves a lot to do.

We're better placed to have a good season this time than we have been. This time we just need to be good, rather than exceptional.

[Worthy4England]

That's absolutely true. As you would expect. Outperform those below you and you'll finish above them...so in that sense, yeah - if we'd outperformed Sheffield Wednesday we'd have been top of the league right now.

That's not what my post looked at - it's whether with the games left, we're likely to end in top 6 - obvs it's just a view and some maths (so is Barnetto's spreadsheet)

I would say that in most senses it's not exactly the same position at all as when some were suggesting the possibility we could catch the top two, because Plymouth and Ipswich were having their wobble....

Yeah, I understand that - the fact remains, though, that we've had a blip and we still control our own destiny. In previous seasons we've been well out of it and needed a miracle to achieve our goals. We've produced stronger finishes than we had any right to expect.

I'd much rather be where we are now than where we've been previously.

Yes - so what you probably wouldn't want to see is a great strong start, "strengthen" in Jan and produce a much weaker finish than we had any right to expect. I think most would say we kept our "transfer powder" dry over the summer, didn't do a whole host of perm business - then spent (probably the biggest outlays we've had in a good number of years), to push on in Jan...

I'm still where I was, prior to season - that we might be just outside the top 6, so overall, I'm not unhappy.

[Prufrock]

Worth remembering that last year, despite that huge improvement and strong finish, we finished 10 points off the play offs. You could look at 9th v 7th and say that's not a big improvement. But 10 points off v (say) 1 point off is a big jump.

I'm fairly sure I said top 6 at the start of the year would be a good season. I don't see any reason to change that. Top 2 would have been outstanding, 7th a little disappointing.

There's the psychology where 7th having been 3rd for most of the season feels a lot worse than 7th having been 10th for most of the season.

[GhostoftheBok]

Yes - so what you probably wouldn't want to see is a great strong start, "strengthen" in Jan and produce a much weaker finish than we had any right to expect. I think most would say we kept our "transfer powder" dry over the summer, didn't do a whole host of perm business - then spent (probably the biggest outlays we've had in a good number of years), to push on in Jan...

I'm still where I was, prior to season - that we might be just outside the top 6, so overall, I'm not unhappy.

Last season we exited an injury crisis towards the second half of the season, this time we entered one.

Even so, I don't think we've been much weaker than we had a right to expect - since the start of January it's 10 wins from 16 games, isn't it? So over a 60% win percentage. Its not some insane, magical run - but it's a good showing.

5 of 9 games won since we left the January window and have had this "difficult" period. 3 losses and one draw. Over a season that'd still be 80+ points.

I'm just not overly concerned. We've been missing lots of players, underperforming (by everyone's estimation) and still getting the kinds of results that put you in play off contention over a season.

In terms of results, the only "below expectations" match is losing at home to Ipswich. Losing away to Wycombe and Pompey isn't unexpected at all, even when playing well. I'd have hoped to win one of those, but we're been crap. These things happen during a season.

I suppose Evatt deserves praise for raising expectations so much that such a minor slump has people panicking all over social media.

[BWFC_Insane]

Worth remembering that last year, despite that huge improvement and strong finish, we finished 10 points off the play offs. You could look at 9th v 7th and say that's not a big improvement. But 10 points off v (say) 1 point off is a big jump.

I'm fairly sure I said top 6 at the start of the year would be a good season. I don't see any reason to change that. Top 2 would have been outstanding, 7th a little disappointing.

There's the psychology where 7th having been 3rd for most of the season feels a lot worse than 7th having been 10th for most of the season.

I don't really buy this tbh. I get the psychology argument, but 7th is nothing. You get nowt for it. 7th-21st effectively is failure for us now. Top 6. IF we can't quite get up then next season we really have to. Staying down her won't pay the bills long term nor keep the fans coming in.

I'm somewhat apprehensive as to what the championship brings too - but I've seen what happens to teams who get stuck here....they take a long time to get out...or worse...go backwards....

[BWFC_Insane]

Yes - so what you probably wouldn't want to see is a great strong start, "strengthen" in Jan and produce a much weaker finish than we had any right to expect. I think most would say we kept our "transfer powder" dry over the summer, didn't do a whole host of perm business - then spent (probably the biggest outlays we've had in a good number of years), to push on in Jan...

I'm still where I was, prior to season - that we might be just outside the top 6, so overall, I'm not unhappy.

Last season we exited an injury crisis towards the second half of the season, this time we entered one.

Even so, I don't think we've been much weaker than we had a right to expect - since the start of January it's 10 wins from 16 games, isn't it? So over a 60% win percentage. Its not some insane, magical run - but it's a good showing.

5 of 9 games won since we left the January window and have had this "difficult" period. 3 losses and one draw. Over a season that'd still be 80+ points.

I'm just not overly concerned. We've been missing lots of players, underperforming (by everyone's estimation) and still getting the kinds of results that put you in play off contention over a season.

In terms of results, the only "below expectations" match is losing at home to Ipswich. Losing away to Wycombe and Pompey isn't unexpected at all, even when playing well. I'd have hoped to win one of those, but we're been crap. These things happen during a season.

I suppose Evatt deserves praise for raising expectations so much that such a minor slump has people panicking all over social media.

There are a list of games we should have won but haven't. But for a purple patch of two 5-0's our problem all season is not scoring enough goals. And most of those games we should have taken wins in comes down to not scoring when we really ought to have.

It depends what you mean by 'overly concerned' I guess. If you think the season fizzling out from here is a possibility and that we've slumped at the precisely worst time then I think it is cause for concern.

If our drop off down the cliff made sense in context then I'd probably be less concerned but I'm not sure it does. I think the more I watch games the more I'm seeing the focus might have gone. Wembley? Exertions? General inexperience? All three arguably. The concern is historically when we've had these runs its taken Evatt a long time to turn it round. He hasn't got a long time now.

[GhostoftheBok]

There are a list of games we should have won but haven't. But for a purple patch of two 5-0's our problem all season is not scoring enough goals. And most of those games we should have taken wins in comes down to not scoring when we really ought to have.

It depends what you mean by 'overly concerned' I guess. If you think the season fizzling out from here is a possibility and that we've slumped at the precisely worst time then I think it is cause for concern.

If our drop off down the cliff made sense in context then I'd probably be less concerned but I'm not sure it does. I think the more I watch games the more I'm seeing the focus might have gone. Wembley? Exertions? General inexperience? All three arguably. The concern is historically when we've had these runs its taken Evatt a long time to turn it round. He hasn't got a long time now.

I think the issue is probably that I went into the season expecting us to struggle for goals. I didn't think the group of strikers would perform well for various reasons and I was extremely annoyed we failed to sign a proper 10. So that's probably why I've not been pulling my hair out.

The season could fizzle out, but I don't really see why it would. The next two games are obviously really tough, but that's always true when you're at the top end of anything. I actively want difficult games that really matter, it means we're doing well.

I think the loss of form makes a shedload of sense. We've had an injury crisis, run the available lads a bit ragged and haven't been able to bed in the reinforcements. I think you must be trying really hard to avoid reality in order to say "I can't see how this could have happened!"

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Tighter and tighter. All these scenarios are last-day deciders – and in most of them, the same for 2nd/3rd...
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Screenshot 2023-03-14 at 16.23.09.png (104.1 KiB) Viewed 410 times

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...worth noting that the price of playoff admission is now around 75-77pts. When I started doing these tables (for this season) six weeks ago it was usually 80+

[Worthy4England]

Thanks for the update, DSB. Yeah - that's what I sorta thought we'd see - although a little surprised we're still "in 6th" in three of them...I guessed at top 8 results to end of season and let it make its own guesses for all - both pitched us 7th - of course an up-turn in form would alleviate some of that - but from getting laughed out of court (metaphorically) for having Ipswich finishing strong - they're now up to second. Many twists and turns.

[Worthy4England]

I think the loss of form makes a shedload of sense. We've had an injury crisis, run the available lads a bit ragged and haven't been able to bed in the reinforcements. I think you must be trying really hard to avoid reality in order to say "I can't see how this could have happened!"

It's not lost that every season IE's been in charge, we've had the "injury crisis" - that worries me more than anything else. It's difficult to judge whether our injury crises are worse overall, than every other team's injury crises, and certainly it's not too mysterious that if you have one, longer/deeper than other teams, you'll likely lose some ground.

I do wonder how much is of our own making (training routines or training pitch) - sorta doesn't matter with those two, it's in our gift to try and resolve either. If it's transfer policy (i.e. we're picking up semi-crocks, then it becomes more difficult to defend) if we're saying folks might be a better pick, but only if they manage to last more than half a season...

[GhostoftheBok]

Wycombe's two games in hand are both away fixtures and their matched game with ours on Friday is against Barnsley.

We'll see how they do.

Even a point at Hillsborough would be massive for us.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

A reminder too that there's loadsa six-pointers - and they can't all win them both, etc. This is what's left of the list I posted a while ago.

03/17 Wednesday-Bolton
03/18 Ipswich-Shrews, Wycombe-Barnsley
03/21 Barnsley-Wednesday
03/25 Barnsley-Ipswich, Posh-Derby
04/01 Derby-Ipswich
04/07 Ipswich-Wycombe, Posh-Shrews
04/10 Barnsley-Shrews
04/18 Shrews-Plymouth
04/22 Bolton-Shrews, Posh-Ipswich
04/29 Shrews-Wednesday
05/07 Barnsley-Posh, Wednesday-Derby