Fleecing the Rams. Away V.Derby County, Sat 21st Jan.3.0' clock.

[GhostoftheBok]

We had replaced Fossey with Bradley. We had four strikers who had been firing.

The fact we lost one excellent player and added another should probably help you to a different conclusion, that we can continue to find good players.

Regarding the strikers, anyone who works in the game could see that they wouldn't work this season - which is why we spent the summer chasing attacking players. We struggled, as you've said, due to budgets; but also due to fit.

Nlundulu, who we wanted in the summer according to Evatt, is here now. He wanted guaranteed games and got them, now he's here. Barky, who we missed out on due to money, we've not replaced.

Without the Bod injury we'd be clearly better if we do get that Barky replacement, but injuries can screw you - that's the reality.

We need to wait until Feb and see whether the squad is or isn't better. For me we've improved every window, just not as much as we might have liked.

The players we know we missed (and haven't yet sorted replacements for) are: Barky, Tucker and Butcher. We didn't know we missed Nlundulu, but he's here. We've picked up Williams, who I think you said you were happy with. We're arguably a Toal up on Tucker, but we wanted both. We've added Shoretire for the Assal that we simply couldn't afford.

So we need to see what we can do about catching-up on those three we've not covered for in the next week or so and then how good the lads we have signed turn out to be over the next few months.

We're doing okay.

[GhostoftheBok]

I should clarify that by "doing okay" I mean it as "okay" and not well.

I'm not happy with the state of the squad as things stand, but I don't think anyone has done a bad job.

[Prufrock]

The top six obsession also has the ring of one of those heuristic-biased thinking things to me. Obviously everyone gets fewer points against the top six. That's true of pretty much everyone including the rest of the top six. A lot of draws and a few wins.

Done the maths on this today.

Plymouth the main outlier this season.

Top 6 ppg v other top 6 teams:

Ply - 2.42 (from 7)
SW - 1 (5)
Ips - 1.16 (6)
Der - 1.33 (6)
Bol - 0.88 (8)
Bar - 1 (6)

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The top six obsession also has the ring of one of those heuristic-biased thinking things to me. Obviously everyone gets fewer points against the top six. That's true of pretty much everyone including the rest of the top six. A lot of draws and a few wins.

Done the maths on this today.

Plymouth the main outlier this season.

Top 6 ppg v other top 6 teams:

Ply - 2.42 (from 7)
SW - 1 (5)
Ips - 1.16 (6)
Der - 1.33 (6)
Bol - 0.88 (8)
Bar - 1 (6)

Always a mixed pleasure to do the research and find the opposite of the hunch. Educational but irritating

I mean, against the top four this season, we've only scored Sads' consolation and Morley's pengy at Ipswich. In July. Zip at home to Plymouth, Sheff Wed and Derby, zip at Plymouth, not been to Hillsborough.

Our glass ceiling has raised, but it's still there.

[Prufrock]

Interesting! I read it as confirming the (my) hunch

Or rather, it being more at that end. Plymouth are freaks this year, so I'm discounting them. Derby are next best. If we matched them against the rest of the top 6 we'd be 3.5 points better off, so just ahead of Derby having played one more.

It would be the difference between slightly comfortably in the play offs and comfortably.

Even if we matched freakish Plymouth we'd be 2 points shy of the autos.

Goals there are very much the problem though!

We don't play another top 6 team until the middle of March when we get the last two out of the way in successive weeks. Ips (H) then Weds (A).

[GhostoftheBok]

We need to score more whilst maintaining the good stuff. If we improve generally the top 6 stuff will go along with it.

One big issues will be whether we can avoid isolating Williams like we did against Derby. Evatt mentioned we got targeted down our left with John there and oh boy did Derby target us there yesterday.

That'll worry Ian, but we can fix it. Iredale had us solid on that flank and Williams hasn't yet add the output to make up for being less defensively "on it." FGR will go at that flank and test us out, so we need to get it right on Tuesday.

Press Morley and hit us down our left was the magic "beat Bolton" button last season and we need to avoid that becoming the pattern again.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Interesting! I read it as confirming the (my) hunch

I read it as confirming we're worse in games against the top six than the all the rest of the top six are. But then, I don't know precisely what you were expecting to find

[BWFC_Insane]

We need to score more whilst maintaining the good stuff. If we improve generally the top 6 stuff will go along with it.

One big issues will be whether we can avoid isolating Williams like we did against Derby. Evatt mentioned we got targeted down our left with John there and oh boy did Derby target us there yesterday.

That'll worry Ian, but we can fix it. Iredale had us solid on that flank and Williams hasn't yet add the output to make up for being less defensively "on it." FGR will go at that flank and test us out, so we need to get it right on Tuesday.

Press Morley and hit us down our left was the magic "beat Bolton" button last season and we need to avoid that becoming the pattern again.

You can simplify that, any team that was half way decent at pressing and had a little physicality fancied playing us last season. Not much has changed except we are way more solid. Even yesterday where we weren’t at the races and couldn’t cope with derbys press we still only shipped two. Last season I dread to think….

[Prufrock]

Interesting! I read it as confirming the (my) hunch

I read it as confirming we're worse in games against the top six than the all the rest of the top six are. But then, I don't know precisely what you were expecting to find

Ha! There seemed to be to be a truism floating about that we're particularly bad against the top 6, and that those results are why we're not competing up for the top two. If we matched the other top 6 teams in those games we'd be right up there.

Instead, it looks to me that those results follow a more general trend in that we're not quite as good as those teams across the board. They get a few more points than us against the top six, and a few more against the rest.

[GhostoftheBok]

You can simplify that, any team that was half way decent at pressing and had a little physicality fancied playing us last season. Not much has changed except we are way more solid. Even yesterday where we weren’t at the races and couldn’t cope with derbys press we still only shipped two. Last season I dread to think….

Like I say, if we can keep the good stuff and find players who fit in and will kick us on we'll be fine.

Sads scores goals, but doesn't play the system. Kachunga plays the system, but can't score goals. MJ is fantastic at a role we no longer use. Sheehan, Isgrove and John are probably also surplus.

We're just carrying a few too many that don't fit what we currently need. That might stop us doing what we would like to do this month, but we can all see what the squad needs.

A lot of fans are already writing-off Williams, which is amazing. Even more surprising those writing of Nlundulu, who has played pretty well twice now.

Let's see what we get done. We're not miles off on the 11 for this season, fitness allowing. Squad depth...that's the kicker. With as many players as we have it's understandable that we'll struggle to add many more. I believe John has had offers (not formal ones to the club), but at the minute nothing seems to be happening despite one looking promising. If we could get him out then maybe we can get those two strikers you'd like.

[BWFC_Insane]

You can simplify that, any team that was half way decent at pressing and had a little physicality fancied playing us last season. Not much has changed except we are way more solid. Even yesterday where we weren’t at the races and couldn’t cope with derbys press we still only shipped two. Last season I dread to think….

Like I say, if we can keep the good stuff and find players who fit in and will kick us on we'll be fine.

Sads scores goals, but doesn't play the system. Kachunga plays the system, but can't score goals. MJ is fantastic at a role we no longer use. Sheehan, Isgrove and John are probably also surplus.

We're just carrying a few too many that don't fit what we currently need. That might stop us doing what we would like to do this month, but we can all see what the squad needs.

A lot of fans are already writing-off Williams, which is amazing. Even more surprising those writing of Nlundulu, who has played pretty well twice now.

Let's see what we get done. We're not miles off on the 11 for this season, fitness allowing. Squad depth...that's the kicker. With as many players as we have it's understandable that we'll struggle to add many more. I believe John has had offers (not formal ones to the club), but at the minute nothing seems to be happening despite one looking promising. If we could get him out then maybe we can get those two strikers you'd like.

I think where I’m probably beginning to be concerned increasingly is we have a long list of players that Evatt has signed continually ‘no longer being what we need’. Teams evolve and upgrade. But I’m beginning to feel that we are making too many poor decisions.

I certainly wouldn’t be saying too much about Williams or Big Dan both have shown their considerable attributes but clearly need more time. We need to see how they go. I’d say yesterday Randy was very poor and as poor an individual performance as we’ve had this season. But he looked good previously. So maybe just catching up with him a bit. If there is any concern there it’s that his legs have gone.

Dan will be useful it’s a question of how many he can bag along the way.

[GhostoftheBok]

I think where I’m probably beginning to be concerned increasingly is we have a long list of players that Evatt has signed continually ‘no longer being what we need’. Teams evolve and upgrade. But I’m beginning to feel that we are making too many poor decisions.

I'm less concerned. I've said before I'm very worried about our cost-cutting by signing players with a history of bad knee injuries, but that's another issue. Personally, I see Iredale, Fossey and Sheehan as maybe making that point - but it's an argument for another time. If Williams suffers then I'll be genuinely asking questions.

On the actual signing errors side of things, most of the ones we're listing have done their jobs. MJ certainly has been a roaring success of a signing. John gave us a good 18 months, but I think that decline is on the player as much as anything. Sheehan got injured. Kachunga, whether you like him or not, has a great PPG for us and is trusted by the manager - hard to call him a flop on that basis, though I understand we won't agree on that.

Sads is the big one. He still has time to come good, but my hope is rapidly fading. He looks like a failure to properly understand his personality, but honestly that'd the easiest error to make in recruitment. I don't think it's a question of just signing someone crap.

I don't think we've signed anyone who just genuinely can't do a job since Dixon. I could have forgotten someone, though.

[nicholaldo]

You can simplify that, any team that was half way decent at pressing and had a little physicality fancied playing us last season. Not much has changed except we are way more solid. Even yesterday where we weren’t at the races and couldn’t cope with derbys press we still only shipped two. Last season I dread to think….

Like I say, if we can keep the good stuff and find players who fit in and will kick us on we'll be fine.

Sads scores goals, but doesn't play the system. Kachunga plays the system, but can't score goals. MJ is fantastic at a role we no longer use. Sheehan, Isgrove and John are probably also surplus.

We're just carrying a few too many that don't fit what we currently need. That might stop us doing what we would like to do this month, but we can all see what the squad needs.

A lot of fans are already writing-off Williams, which is amazing. Even more surprising those writing of Nlundulu, who has played pretty well twice now.

Let's see what we get done. We're not miles off on the 11 for this season, fitness allowing. Squad depth...that's the kicker. With as many players as we have it's understandable that we'll struggle to add many more. I believe John has had offers (not formal ones to the club), but at the minute nothing seems to be happening despite one looking promising. If we could get him out then maybe we can get those two strikers you'd like.

I think where I’m probably beginning to be concerned increasingly is we have a long list of players that Evatt has signed continually ‘no longer being what we need’. Teams evolve and upgrade. But I’m beginning to feel that we are making too many poor decisions.

I thought similar myself but it could simply be a reflection of how quickly we've progressed since his arrival.

We've gone from being in the fourth tier with practically no squad whatsoever, to challenging for the play-off places in the third tier in two and a half seasons.

That will inevitably result in quite a high turnover.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

You can simplify that, any team that was half way decent at pressing and had a little physicality fancied playing us last season. Not much has changed except we are way more solid. Even yesterday where we weren’t at the races and couldn’t cope with derbys press we still only shipped two. Last season I dread to think….

...We're just carrying a few too many that don't fit what we currently need.

I think where I’m probably beginning to be concerned increasingly is we have a long list of players that Evatt has signed continually ‘no longer being what we need’. Teams evolve and upgrade. But I’m beginning to feel that we are making too many poor decisions.

I thought similar myself but it could simply be a reflection of how quickly we've progressed since his arrival.

We've gone from being in the fourth tier with practically no squad whatsoever, to challenging for the play-off places in the third tier in two and a half seasons.

That will inevitably result in quite a high turnover.

I agree with that, and I'll add a separate thought.

This is the first season we haven't (yet) had a significant formation change. It's hard enough finding players to keep you improving within a system; when you change that system, you are bound to have players who then just don't fit. That doesn't necessarily make them poor signings or poor players.

Examples are numerous, for both facets.

John was signed as an attacking full-back in a back four. That worked in the Fourth Division but in the Third he was caught out of position many, many times. We switched to wingback to accommodate that (and Fossey) and it worked, but now he's gone crap again anyway.

MJ was signed as one of two holding midfielders in a Fourth Division 4-2-3-1. He excelled and we were promoted, but we signed Sheehan, switched to 4-3-3 with just him holding, and higher-tier opponents flooded past him. We switched last January to five across midfield and he worked again, but now we're playing a more stretched 3-4-1-2 with a high press he's looking like a weak link again.

For the calendar year of 2021, Dapo excelled on the left of a 4-2-3-1 - first with dribbling, then adding goals. But for various reasons – mainly heightened awareness, double-marking and notably a change in formation - he has struggled much more in the back-three system(s); even when things were going well in spring, he'd often seem to clash with Evatt (notably at Cheltenham) about positional play. Doesn't make him shit. Doesn't make an ignoramus of the manager, who tried him at 10, 9 and even LWB in a thorough attempt to fit him in. It didn't work. That happens.

Then there's Sadlier. I still think he was earmarked in summer 2021 (the year of 4-2-3-1) as a possible Dapo replacement if we couldn't make the loan permanent; we didn't get him then but got him in January 2022, when Dapo was the subject of some serious sniffing by clubs with money. Dapo stayed, Sadlier came, but we almost immediately switched to the back three. Sads gamely played wingback and has been tried at 10 and 9, even if only more fleetingly than I'd have liked, but I understand why. He clearly best fits the 11 role in a 4-2-3-1 we don't play any more.

The formation switches in successive winters have been a great success for the team but not for all players, because not all players can play in multiple systems. That may be a recruitment failure but we're not exactly dining at the top table and the coaching staff think they can train players up. Sometimes they do – Johnston and Thomason being good examples, but Morley is also developing nicely. However, they're not magicians. As Prufrock said the other day, not all players can take in tactical information, and not all can adapt. The ones who haven't adapted, either to tactical change or a higher bar of expectation, have to be filed under natural wastage.

[GhostoftheBok]

We're transitioning out of the squad we built to keep us in this division, as player's two year deals expire, into the squad we hope can keep us in the Championship.

That churn Nicho and DSB are talking about is real, but ideally you want a core of players to build around. We're a bit more screwed due to having no keepers past the summer, but generally we are close to that minimum core of 12-16 players you need.

Toal, Geth, Santos, Johnston, Iredale, Randy, Thomason, Morley, Dempsey and Charles gives us 10. Nlundulu is intended to be here as part of that, so if that works out it's 11. Sads and Dapo could have given us 13, but obviously one is gone and the other is on shaky ground - so in my head I'm at 10 (11).

We need to dramatically up the quality in key areas, but these are players Evatt will trust if we go up, or to get us up next season if we don't.

There's a lot more work to do than I would ideally like and we should have got more done in the summer, but it's still going pretty well.

John is the only player on the books who looks a real drain right now and you're going to get stung occasionally.

If we can get one or two more this window for that core, especially if they're Championship-level players, we'll start to look very healthy. There will still be loads to do in the summer regardless of what we achieve this term, but it'll give us a decent shot at the play-offs and a great platform to build on.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think I’d note that we started the season playing a back four…Evatt was talking about switching between systems at the time.

We fairly quickly settled on a back three.

I just suspect next season some of the players in that list will be being talked about in the same way as ones have this season ‘no longer what we need’ and the churn continues….

[GhostoftheBok]

We'll see. If we go up then yes, some eventually will, so I suppose we should all hope the churn does continue in that regard.

That core will change over time, but you need to go into a summer with it in place. The next summer transfers, injuries, youth players etc may have changed who is in that core group - it just needs to remain a consistent size, to provide some stability as you transition between seasons. If you go into a summer needing 12+ players you're usually buggered for at least 6 months.

[GhostoftheBok]

Just to talk about the match again, Evatt said that an issue was bravery with the ball and he was right; but there was also an issue of bravery off the ball.

There were too many times when players in attacking areas didn't offer options and either stood in the cover shadow or watched play develop from a distance. Players were too often stood next to one another who should have been offering different angles.

I went onto iFollow and found the one that really annoyed me during the game. Bradley cuts inside off the wing having done well to avoid pressure and should have four passing options, but he has two. One tricky pass on the run off his left to Nlundulu (which he should have tried) and one backwards (excuse the dodgy drawing on a snip).

Screenshot_20230123_000032.png (2.89 MiB) Viewed 2359 times

The red lines are two passes we would usually have afforded him, but because we're playing Derby we've got two forwards ball watching and a midfielder too worried about running back to set up for the back pass. One of the forwards has to be sprinting to offer an option as soon as he turns inside and Lee has got to open his body to offer for the pass inside.

It happened time and again that game and keeps happening against better sides. If Charles wants to be there he has got to push further wide to allow for a clip into him. It's really basic stuff.

Bradley plays safe when he shouldn't, but he's done no favours at all. One of the reasons I have a lot of time for Nlundulu's performance yesterday was he consistently offered for the ball - but other players bottled the pass.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^ Happens a lot - and is especially notable when the wing backs cut inside. We don't really have a plan from there and its one of the big weaknesses. Its improved with Morley because he does generally try and find space but as you say its a function of Lee not being amazingly comfortable in tight areas on the ball and certainly Charles who just isn't wired to play in those areas when a team is deeper and we have possession. I think its also a function of the wing backs inability to get down the line and teams will just show Bradley inside because its tougher to make stuff happen - if he would start bombing down the line more it might make it harder for teams to predict and setup shape so quickly.

I think also we lack that really good between the lines type who always wants the ball. Its a bit static - Shoretire might be that but I fancy he's more your running number 10. We need a Bernardo Silva ideally - someone who picks those little pockets of space and moves it on forwards and quickly.

[boltonboris]

We have that issue a lot. Midfielders not being in positions to receive the ball. Very frustrating. But it happens so often, that I think it might be deliberate for some reason.. Setting traps?

Anyway, we can analyse it to death, but the simple reasons for not winning and playing poorly were that we didn't win our tackles, we didn't win headers, we didn't win footraces.

When you can't win duels, you can't play well and you can't win games