The Forest Green Green Grass of Home? FGR, (H) 24/01/23 7.45pm

[The_Gun]

I don't know whether we have any grass left at all, let alone green grass, but hopefully those magic lamps have done their trick.

File this one under the 'must win' category if we want to hold our position in the playoffs, but after Saturday confidence has been dented somewhat, at least amongst our fanbase. Bookies have us as best price 1/2 favourites to take all three points, so the expectation is on Evatt's boys to steady the ship.

Will we see a return for the prodigal son, Rico Santos, a home debut for Shola Sure Tyre? Both seem likely.

3-1 Bolton Wanderers for me.

[The_Gun]

Ah, Tango beat me to it!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Shoretire, Santos and possibly Jones to start, for me; doesn't mean they start Saturday, just for this game. Wouldn't surprise me to see a change in central midfield but I think we'd lose something there if so. Interesting to see what happens out wide with Randy flagging and Bradley also dipping - although he's one yellow from a two-match sit-down anyway.

I'm intrigued by the idea of playing Sadlier up front, see what happens. Not sure whether FGR will need a particularly well coordinated press or whether they'll just be sitting deep so we need twinklers.

[sonicthewhite]

Beck to start LWB maybe? Possibly MJ to start as well?

[TANGODANCER]

Ah, Tango beat me to it!

No bother. I'll delete mine. Go for it.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Beck to start LWB maybe? Possibly MJ to start as well?

It's funny with Beck - a month ago we'd have been saying Beck above Iredale for a game like this: at home to, with respect, one of the lesser lights who might sit deep. Now, the alternative is Randy who is more of a winger than Beck. If they do sit in a low block, you might fancy Randy above Beck as the dribbler to take them on – not that you can't pass through a block, but Evatt has specified needing dribblers for such an event. I guess in the end it depends on fitness. We have a hard(er) game coming up on Saturday.

MJ is a rotation option but for me doesn't offer a lot in attack - the neat touches and one-twos we might need. On the other hand, he might be well-placed to sit in when centre-backs offer overloads. If he does play, we have to make damn certain he's not just sitting on the toes of three centrebacks and thus leaving us massively outnumbered up the sharp end. Between them, they need to add numbers. That's one reason I'd bring in Santos for Aimson and Jones for probably Toal - we want people comfortable on the ball to get through their numbers. Again, doesn't mean that's who plays Saturday.

[GhostoftheBok]

With Nlundulu carrying a knock and Randy looking shagged we'll see what happens there.

We should win, but with them bottom and having an ex player returning this would be your traditional Bolton gift of 3 points.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/leagu ... s-2022-23/
Some quick stats -
• they've had the second-fewest shots in open play
• they've conceded the second-most goals in open play
• they've conceded the second-most shots from set pieces

Stylistically they're pretty bang-average for the division. Very very slightly faster back to front than us, and very much average for "passes per sequence" – although this might not mean they're not trying to pass, it might mean they're not very good at it. Indeed, they're mid-table for "10+ pass sequences" and bottom-five for "direct attacks".

Stats suggest they don't have decent majority (55%+) possession outside their 18-yard box and the 18 yards in front of that; they certainly don't seem to press high, handing over majority possession in the entirety of the opponents' half. Indeed they're fourth-bottom for the PPDA measurement of pressure (we're top), and bottom for high turnovers.

Of course all this is only suggestive. They had five full debutants on Saturday, so manager Burchnall - installed in summer, not turfed yet - may be changing tack slightly; also, they may sit deeper at ours than they habitually do elsewhere. But it feels to me like a night where we'll have to probe, perhaps patiently; perhaps play dribblers rather than runners in behind; and certainly not start screaming WHERE DO THE GOALS COME FROM before half-time.

[GhostoftheBok]

They've beaten 5 teams all season and one of them was us.

I am also fairly sure the only time they've kept a clean sheet in the league was when we played them, but could be wrong there.

[DJBlu]

If we dare underestimate these then I'll be pretty fecking miffed.

Turn up, remain professional, respect them as needed and hopefully we'll get back to winning ways. Anything else and it could be embarrassing.

COYWM!!!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

They've beaten 5 teams all season and one of them was us.

I am also fairly sure the only time they've kept a clean sheet in the league was when we played them, but could be wrong there.

They beat Cheltenham 1-0 at home. Other home victims: Accy and Cambridge, each 2-1. Only away win was at Brizzle.

[GhostoftheBok]

They beat Cheltenham 1-0 at home. Other home victims: Accy and Cambridge, each 2-1. Only away win was at Brizzle.

That hasn't made me feel better, but I appreciate the correction. Thank you.

[BWFC_Insane]

Its must win. I don't want to in any way underestimate them. But I think we need some changes to freshen it up.

Santos and Jones would play for me. Give them minutes. I'd bring Aimson and Johnston back Saturday though.

I'd put Sads and Charles up top. See how it looks. Its risky but also I suspect they will sit deep and a Sadlier taking of a half chance might open the game up.

I'd put Shortire in for Lee. Again lets see if he can help us against sides with a 'low block' in mind.

I think more changes becomes risky. Experimental. And maybe would be detrimental even if its tempting to rest Randell and maybe even one of Morley or Dempsey.

Dunno. It has to be a win otherwise that would be significant momentum sucked out at a time we really can't afford it to happen. And like I say keeping the crowd onside and keeping that bubbling along is important.

No idea what side Evatt will actually pick - can't see it being what I would pick but no doubt he will see it as a critical game after Derby.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Its must win. I don't want to in any way underestimate them. But I think we need some changes to freshen it up.

Santos and Jones would play for me. Give them minutes. I'd bring Aimson and Johnston back Saturday though.

I'd put Sads and Charles up top. See how it looks. Its risky but also I suspect they will sit deep and a Sadlier taking of a half chance might open the game up.

I'd put Shortire in for Lee. Again lets see if he can help us against sides with a 'low block' in mind.

I think more changes becomes risky. Experimental. And maybe would be detrimental even if its tempting to rest Randell and maybe even one of Morley or Dempsey.

Dunno. It has to be a win otherwise that would be significant momentum sucked out at a time we really can't afford it to happen. And like I say keeping the crowd onside and keeping that bubbling along is important.

No idea what side Evatt will actually pick - can't see it being what I would pick but no doubt he will see it as a critical game after Derby.

All makes sense to me. Again, I would trust the sports-science bunch if they told me Big Dan needed to start rather than be sub, but even if so, I would want Sadlier on for a full half hour.

(I can't imagine Evatt would start with Dan/Sads and rest Charles, even if Dion is in danger of running himself flat - he's started 17 of our last 18, and was on before the hour in the other. Besides, it's very much a 'Dion scores two, including one penalty' kind of game.)

[BWFC_Insane]

Its must win. I don't want to in any way underestimate them. But I think we need some changes to freshen it up.

Santos and Jones would play for me. Give them minutes. I'd bring Aimson and Johnston back Saturday though.

I'd put Sads and Charles up top. See how it looks. Its risky but also I suspect they will sit deep and a Sadlier taking of a half chance might open the game up.

I'd put Shortire in for Lee. Again lets see if he can help us against sides with a 'low block' in mind.

I think more changes becomes risky. Experimental. And maybe would be detrimental even if its tempting to rest Randell and maybe even one of Morley or Dempsey.

Dunno. It has to be a win otherwise that would be significant momentum sucked out at a time we really can't afford it to happen. And like I say keeping the crowd onside and keeping that bubbling along is important.

No idea what side Evatt will actually pick - can't see it being what I would pick but no doubt he will see it as a critical game after Derby.

All makes sense to me. Again, I would trust the sports-science bunch if they told me Big Dan needed to start rather than be sub, but even if so, I would want Sadlier on for a full half hour.

(I can't imagine Evatt would start with Dan/Sads and rest Charles, even if Dion is in danger of running himself flat - he's started 17 of our last 18, and was on before the hour in the other. Besides, it's very much a 'Dion scores two, including one penalty' kind of game.)

Yeah might be Big Dan starts but I feel he'd have a bigger impact coming on up front off the bench than Sadlier would....Sadlier's impact is taking a chance but if we start with him and he takes something early - one of those half chances like Saturday it completely changes the game.

I can't see Evatt starting with Sadlier up top. No doubt it will be Dan and Dion or failing that Kachunga and Dion.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

For the record, as I looked it up: Sads has only started one league game this season (Lincoln away). Saturday's goal was only his second goal involvement in the league - assist at Fleetwood. In various cups he's scored against Salford, Crewe, Tranmere and Leeds U21 - the middle two as starter, the other two as sub. He also got an assist against Barrow, as starter.

Overall - 5 goals and 2 assists from 908 minutes.
But in League only terms, 1G + 1A from 19 games (298 minutes).
You might, or might not, add in 27 minutes v Pompey (EFL Trophy) and 15 v Barnsley (FA Cup) - both League One teams - to make it 1G + 1A from 21 appearances (342 minutes) when not punching down.

(You might also say that less than five hours' league football is not a lot.)

ADDENDUM: For unfair comparison, George Johnston has played 2,288 minutes - over 38 hours - of league football. The maximum would be 2,430 minutes or 40.5 hours. Sads has played 12% of the maximum league minutes.

[Prufrock]

Apparently Dan and Conor carrying knocks they hope to shake off. Wouldn't be surprised to see Sads start RWB.

[BWFC_Insane]

For the record, as I looked it up: Sads has only started one league game this season (Lincoln away). Saturday's goal was only his second goal involvement in the league - assist at Fleetwood. In various cups he's scored against Salford, Crewe, Tranmere and Leeds U21 - the middle two as starter, the other two as sub. He also got an assist against Barrow, as starter.

Overall - 5 goals and 2 assists from 908 minutes.
But in League only terms, 1G + 1A from 19 games (298 minutes).
You might, or might not, add in 27 minutes v Pompey (EFL Trophy) and 15 v Barnsley (FA Cup) - both League One teams - to make it 1G + 1A from 21 appearances (342 minutes) when not punching down.

(You might also say that less than five hours' league football is not a lot.)

ADDENDUM: For unfair comparison, George Johnston has played 2,288 minutes - over 38 hours - of league football. The maximum would be 2,430 minutes or 40.5 hours. Sads has played 12% of the maximum league minutes.

Its very sporadic though. If we had given him 5 or 6 starts in a row in a position he favoured I think we'd have a discussion about his output.

But he's barely had any appearances and they are mainly odd sets of minutes off the bench. In games that are already won or lost in some cases.

It may well be that Evatt is right and Sadlier is just a poor player who it was a mistake to sign. But we've just seen basically nothing of him. And without wanting to start the debate on him, we've seen 3.4 times more of Kachunga against 'league one level or above sides' who's output against those teams is 2 assists, 0 goals. In positions that he would naturally play.....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yep - I can't decide on Sadlier, because as you say he hasn't had a very reasonable chance to show himself. When he's been given a chance he hasn't always impressed - Tranmere being the obvious example, although he wasn't alone in disappointing that night.

I looked up those stats to see if he was more effective as a sub than a starter - confirmation bias? – but his goal-involvement output is so low (except when punching down) that it's hard to tell.

I don't think he's had the fairest chance to show what he can do up the sharp end. I don't know that he ever will. But tomorrow night, with a lack of strikers in a three-game week, might be the time to try... if he's not needed at RWB, as would be somehow typical of a Bolton career arguably hampered by his flexibility.

[BWFC_Insane]

Yep - I can't decide on Sadlier, because as you say he hasn't had a very reasonable chance to show himself. When he's been given a chance he hasn't always impressed - Tranmere being the obvious example, although he wasn't alone in disappointing that night.

I looked up those stats to see if he was more effective as a sub than a starter - confirmation bias? – but his goal-involvement output is so low (except when punching down) that it's hard to tell.

I don't think he's had the fairest chance to show what he can do up the sharp end. I don't know that he ever will. But tomorrow night, with a lack of strikers in a three-game week, might be the time to try... if he's not needed at RWB, as would be somehow typical of a Bolton career arguably hampered by his flexibility.

I think for me he's a player who needs to be up the pitch. I don't think he's a number 10 in our system. I think he likes a bit of space to run into and to be in and around the box. In fairness I don't think our possession game suits him as what I saw of him before Bolton he loved playing the channel between the full back and centre half, we just do that very rarely and he's not played in a position where he could do that.

He also is a good crosser of the ball yet we don't get many in the box on the end of stuff...except in the dying embers of games we're trying to save....and of course then he has a licence to play effectively as a winger...which is why I suspect he looks good at times off the bench but a bit average other times.