Will we see the premiership again - and do we want to?

[jmjhb]

Euxton seems to be cursed to be quite honest

[Worthy4England]

Euxton seems to be cursed to be quite honest

It's in Chorley. They still burn witches.

[boltonboris]

I mean, yes and no. Preston are one of those teams and they're still supposedly losing a million a month.

One of the reasons Preston have spent so much is that they've been trying to play catch-up with off-field development.

They suffered from huge underinvestment for years and they've had a lot of bills related to their ground, academy and training ground (they are now based at Euxton).

We appear to be using the bond system to pay for similar expenses on our end, to give us five years of manageable football expenditure separate from those long term structural costs.

Preston's actual football spending to reliably stay up hasn't been that big and we need to spend less to maintain reasonable facilities. Though obviously we'd like to have a proper training ground again. Almost all of Preston's football spending in the past few seasons (fees and agents fees) has been offset by Robinson's move to Sheff Utd.

Equally, Preston haven't done all that well in the market. They've had one top eight finish and made a lot of bad calls on transfers. Despite that, they've generally finished very comfortably in mid table.

They've lost almost £28m in 2 years.. That's not going on the training ground and a lick of paint at a fanzone

[GhostoftheBok]

They've lost almost £28m in 2 years.. That's not going on the training ground and a lick of paint at a fanzone

Our turnover in League One was higher than Preston's in the Championship.

They made £10m once fans were allowed back in. The whole BWFC group made nearly £14m in the same period.

They have spent millions on structural development and their revenue is tiny as they don't really have secondary ventures.

I think their current revenue is around £12m having hired a couple of firms to try and push it a bit. Our minimum estimate for Championship revenue is around £20m, or was last time I talked to someone about it.

[BWFC_Insane]

Yeah probably old figures now but Luton had a football wage bill of £12.5M with a loss of £6M last season.

Sure their average attendance is only 10,000 and some change. Their gate income is probably equivalent or thereabouts due to higher prices and that is reflected in their revenue of just under £18M.

So on the one hand its encouraging Luton can do so well - because financially they look pretty similar (though higher turnover!) but that's with a loss of £6M.

Its not like they are being crazy but I do wonder how many seasons FV could cover such a loss.

[BWFC_Insane]

They've lost almost £28m in 2 years.. That's not going on the training ground and a lick of paint at a fanzone

Our turnover in League One was higher than Preston's in the Championship.

They made £10m once fans were allowed back in. The whole BWFC group made nearly £14m in the same period.

They have spent millions on structural development and their revenue is tiny as they don't really have secondary ventures.

I think their current revenue is around £12m having hired a couple of firms to try and push it a bit. Our minimum estimate for Championship revenue is around £20m, or was last time I talked to someone about it.

Preston's last reported revenue was £13.8M which I think is identical to ours.

[GhostoftheBok]

Preston's last reported revenue was £13.8M which I think is identical to ours.

Money well spent on those two firms then, but the point remains. They are having to go balls to the wall to bring in a lot less money than we'd expect to rake in at that level.

Without additional ticket sales we'd be looking at over £20m at that level.

That's with them having been back in the Championship for what, 8 years now? With external financial backing pushing them.

The clubs aren't really comparable. Whilst we won't be rich if we go up, there's a chance to operate on a fairly sustainable budget that can still keep us up. We don't need to make vast losses to survive - even if we'd need more backing to push for promotion.

[BWFC_Insane]

Preston's last reported revenue was £13.8M which I think is identical to ours.

Money well spent on those two firms then, but the point remains. They are having to go balls to the wall to bring in a lot less money than we'd expect to rake in at that level.

Without additional ticket sales we'd be looking at over £20m at that level.

That's with them having been back in the Championship for what, 8 years now? With external financial backing pushing them.

The clubs aren't really comparable. Whilst we won't be rich if we go up, there's a chance to operate on a fairly sustainable budget that can still keep us up. We don't need to make vast losses to survive - even if we'd need more backing to push for promotion.

I don't disagree. I think the difference in their favour will be the value and quality in their squad.

The problem we have is that we won't have obvious ways to bridge the gap quickly. And there is a gap from what we've got now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I remember from my FourFourTwo days that every year's Rich List would include Trevor Hemmings and the phrase "...poured in £xm in Preston's most recent financial year". He's dead now, and I guess they've had to worry about what happens next. <insert Peter Ridsdale joke>

Millwall, too, have been propped up by multimillion-pound injections every season. In football, but especially IMO in that division, spending deemed relatively "sensible" isn't necessarily "sustainable". So the question is, how much can FV afford or attract?

I do think there will be teams every season we can finish above. Cardiff seem to be a basket case. Reading are merely the latest in a line of FFP-hampered overspending underachievers (following, most recently, Derby and Sheff Wed - who's next?). It's a big gulf, but not unbroachable. However, I still wonder how the hell we continue move upwards - more off the pitch than on.

[GhostoftheBok]

I don't disagree. I think the difference in their favour will be the value and quality in their squad.

The problem we have is that we won't have obvious ways to bridge the gap quickly. And there is a gap from what we've got now.

The first season could be dicey and other clubs have failed to square the circle. I think we'd stay up, but we're not magically guaranteed it and we only need to have one bad season to derail the train.

We'll see what happens tomorrow. If we're off to Wembley again then I'll start to dream. Feet are firmly on the ground for now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The first season could be dicey and other clubs have failed to square the circle. I think we'd stay up, but we're not magically guaranteed it and we only need to have one bad season to derail the train.

This is where I admire Rotherham and Wycombe for trying to stay up without overspending. But it's a risky ploy. Wycombe failed - although they would argue rivals cheated by spending outside the agreed limits. Rotherham failed, went back up, failed, went back up and succeeded.

That's a high failure rate, and it's notable that they stuck by their managers (until they were airlifted out by clubs deemed "bigger," which is interesting considering one was in the division below). Would we – club and fans – put up with that?

Would we even put up with narrowly surviving if it involved losing 23 of our 46 games (as Cardiff did this season), only winning 11 (as Rotherham did), scoring less than a goal a game (Cardiff and QPR) or only winning 6 of 23 home games (Cardiff, QPR, Stoke)? Preston, safe in midtable, scored 20 in 23 home games – can't imagine that playing well with some posters here...

[GhostoftheBok]

This is where I admire Rotherham and Wycombe for trying to stay up without overspending. But it's a risky ploy. Wycombe failed - although they would argue rivals cheated by spending outside the agreed limits. Rotherham failed, went back up, failed, went back up and succeeded.

That's a high failure rate, and it's notable that they stuck by their managers (until they were airlifted out by clubs deemed "bigger," which is interesting considering one was in the division below). Would we – club and fans – put up with that?

Would we even put up with narrowly surviving if it involved losing 23 of our 46 games (as Cardiff did this season), only winning 11 (as Rotherham did), scoring less than a goal a game (Cardiff and QPR) or only winning 6 of 23 home games (Cardiff, QPR, Stoke)? Preston, safe in midtable, scored 20 in 23 home games – can't imagine that playing well with some posters here...

As Evatt has said, the way Rotherham and Wycombe approach the budget gap makes it harder for them. We'd lose games and I'm sure some would start to get grumpy (we'd be bound to have a really bad run at some stage), but I reckon we'd stay up fairly comfortably in the end.

I actually think Evatt could keep our current squad in that division, just about.

[Worthy4England]

We might be confusing "Group" with FVWL Football Ltd in some areas. Group includes FVWL Hotel Ltd. FVWL Football Ltd had a turnover of £8.5m at the last accounts...

[GhostoftheBok]

We might be confusing "Group" with FVWL Football Ltd in some areas. Group includes FVWL Hotel Ltd. FVWL Football Ltd had a turnover of £8.5m at the last accounts...

It's the group as a whole that determines how long FV can afford to be involved.

[Worthy4England]

We might be confusing "Group" with FVWL Football Ltd in some areas. Group includes FVWL Hotel Ltd. FVWL Football Ltd had a turnover of £8.5m at the last accounts...

It's the group as a whole that determines how long FV can afford to be involved.

That's probably true to al intents and purposes yadda, yadda. But when you're comparing Preston's revenue to ours, it should be noted that it's not like for like from footballing activities...We're propping up the football from a completely different business.

[BWFC_Insane]

We might be confusing "Group" with FVWL Football Ltd in some areas. Group includes FVWL Hotel Ltd. FVWL Football Ltd had a turnover of £8.5m at the last accounts...

It's the group as a whole that determines how long FV can afford to be involved.

That's probably true to al intents and purposes yadda, yadda. But when you're comparing Preston's revenue to ours, it should be noted that it's not like for like from footballing activities...We're propping up the football from a completely different business.

But I think that's ghost's point isn't it? That's FV's plan....

[Worthy4England]

We might be confusing "Group" with FVWL Football Ltd in some areas. Group includes FVWL Hotel Ltd. FVWL Football Ltd had a turnover of £8.5m at the last accounts...

It's the group as a whole that determines how long FV can afford to be involved.

That's probably true to al intents and purposes yadda, yadda. But when you're comparing Preston's revenue to ours, it should be noted that it's not like for like from footballing activities...We're propping up the football from a completely different business.

But I think that's ghost's point isn't it? That's FV's plan....

That's why I said it's seems true to all intents and purposes - there's nowt wrong with it, just that when you're considering how effective you're being at the football side, you need to factor in that it's being propped up. That is all.

[GhostoftheBok]

That's why I said it's seems true to all intents and purposes - there's nowt wrong with it, just that when you're considering how effective you're being at the football side, you need to factor in that it's being propped up. That is all.

But that's exactly what I said, Worthy.

"They have spent millions on structural development and their revenue is tiny as they don't really have secondary ventures."

[Worthy4England]

That's why I said it's seems true to all intents and purposes - there's nowt wrong with it, just that when you're considering how effective you're being at the football side, you need to factor in that it's being propped up. That is all.

But that's exactly what I said, Worthy.

"They have spent millions on structural development and their revenue is tiny as they don't really have secondary ventures."

Maybe, I'm getting a bit lost, I thought we were trying to say (in rough terms) Preston manage effectively on a small amount for "out and out football" and we'd have more?

They spent £24m on staff costs (113 staff, all but 29 of whom are related directly to football) and there was a further £7.5m split between player registrations ( a footballing cost - £3.3m) and other Opex (probably not a footballing cost - £4.2) - isn't that the best part of £27m mainly on players, and footballing side staff?

Obviously those costs are offset by other things like turn over. But the cost to run the footballing side just in terms of paying folks doesn't look too shoddy.

[GhostoftheBok]

Maybe, I'm getting a bit lost, I thought we were trying to say (in rough terms) Preston manage effectively on a small amount for "out and out football" and we'd have more?

No, what's being said is that the financial picture would seem to show that we could get someway towards a club like Preston's "on pitch" budget without having to call on significant debt or massive new investment.

It's not that we'd have more, it's that we'd have more BEFORE we factor in debt. So whilst Preston can't really operate without a good whack of debt it may be that we can. If our revenue looks like going up by 8 million from promotion with the new TV deal (I think was the figure mentioned the other day) and we factor in the increase in commercial sets and tickets you may be looking at £24-25m a year turnover for FV overall. Even if it's quite a bit less than that we're significantly above Preston BEFORE we factor in taking on debt.

My view is that there's probably enough there to keep ourselves fairly safe in that division, assuming good decisions from Evatt et al. So it's not that we can match all these other team £ for £, but rather that we can do a lot more than they could if they were using sustainable models.

I think a sustainable BWFC is a much stronger football club than a sustainable PNE - the fact they're willing/able to operate at a large loss obviously tips the scales.