Beware the man in black..Home v Fleetwood, Sat 29th Apr. 3-0'clock.

[TANGODANCER]

No, not Mick Fleetwood or Johnny Cash, but the fella with the whistle (who may try to fool us by wearing a different coloured shirt) and his deputy sheriffs. These guys are not our friends. What's past is past and unrecoverable, but we still have a salvation shout if we kill off the Shrimps and Bristol Pirates, but we need eleven men on the pitch to do it.
Feelings will undoubtedly run high, but whistling willie and his flag wavers are not related to Santa Claus. The Shrimps are mid-table-ish and it's doubtful they'll be in generous mood, so it's stick or twist with no third choice. So, Whites, in the words of Dick Turpin.."Stand and deliver" ....

Once more unto the breech dear friends, cunning plans and score guesses to the fore.......(yes, I know it's only Wednesday, but early bird etc...)

Have it it

[BWFC_Insane]

Its not going to happen - obviously - but I'd be seriously tempted to change systems for this. The system we're playing is for me making us too static in these home games and I don't see Fleetwood being much different to Accrington EXCEPT they have more on the counter and carry more threat.

The problem I have is we have two up front supposedly to lead the press but Charles looks like he's struggling a bit in that regard and Nlundulu, Victor and Jerome are absolutely NOT built for pressing the ball and frankly I think it results in us carrying a passenger.

I'd like to get Bradley higher up the pitch with some protection in behind him - a more solid base in midfield with say Morley and Sheehan and free Dempsey up to float and make runs.

It would mean a back 4 and Evatt obviously won't do that but I do think that getting someone wide higher up the pitch and offering more freedom to Dempsey (and Lee when he comes on as he should) would help us at home.

Would be too risky for Evatt to change it now and I'd absolutely get why he won't. But if it was me I'd roll the dice because I think we've hit a brick wall in this system and need a fresh look. At least for this game.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't see Fleetwood being much different to Accrington EXCEPT they have more on the counter and carry more threat.

So they're better than the opponents in the last fixture, who were our hardest opponents left? I see you

[BWFC_Insane]

I don't see Fleetwood being much different to Accrington EXCEPT they have more on the counter and carry more threat.

So they're better than the opponents in the last fixture, who were our hardest opponents left? I see you

They've got nothing to play for so if we can get some tempo going and pepper their box - its just a matter of sticking one or two away. I don't think anyone from Cambridge on were teams we shouldn't be beating and frankly we all know we SHOULD win here and the following week.

But Accrington who were absolutely rubbish last night aside from serious battling qualities show us that we are trying to beat ourselves first then the opposition.

[TANGODANCER]

Some good news....

"EOIN Toal will be back in the Bolton Wanderers squad for Saturday’s home game against Fleetwood, Ian Evatt has confirmed."

[Worthy4England]

Good news. I'm guessing this might actually be getting close to a "must win" (but not quite all the way there yet.)

I listened to IE's post match after Accy, to be fair, he was as unimpressed, generally, as the rest of us at our inability to put the ball in the sack. Hopefully, Tuesday's loss will crystallize the minds, that a similar outcome on Saturday could be the end of the world as we know it...

Thing is, I don't think we picked "the wrong" team on Tuesday - it's pretty much what I'd have gone with, with the exception of big Dan (I'd have probably picked Kacha - which for many would constitute "as long as broad"). I think part of the problem relating to the Jan signings is that most folks were probably sat there looking at the subs coming on and thinking "this is changing sweet FA"...

Just for The Gun. COYWM

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Thing is, I don't think we picked "the wrong" team on Tuesday - it's pretty much what I'd have gone with, with the exception of big Dan (I'd have probably picked Kacha - which for many would constitute "as long as broad"). I think part of the problem relating to the Jan signings is that most folks were probably sat there looking at the subs coming on and thinking "this is changing sweet FA"...

Someone on here noted that at least in Adeboyejo we had a substitute who could find the goalframe on an Ordnance Survey map (I may not be quoting verbatim). Trouble is, by the time he appeared we were not only losing, but losing against a team sitting deep, and like BWFCi I suspect Ade will be better with acres to run into than trying to work it through a packed defence.

Add in that Ade was brought on for Dec John, necessitating an unsurprisingly unsuccessful shift of Shola to LWB (our 8th different one this season, is it?), and the poor fella was trying to operate in a hugely crowded space. It was like watching someone trying to drive a tractor in a lift.

Anyways. That's gone, let's hope for sunlit uplands.

I would be very tempted to go with the same team bar Ade for Dan. I would go with Dec over Randell as he looked OK midweek. None of the subs made strong cases for a start. Toal could in time be the successor to Santos in the centre but I think it would be very harsh to drop MJ and I would persist with Jones at RCB over Eoin as I think he offers just a bit more movement going forward. That said, I know nowt about Fleetwood. If they've got two lofty oxen up top we might want Toal's height (over Jones, presumably). But I would still be wary of rushing him back.

Morley might also be droppable - but for whom? Lee, perhaps?

[Worthy4England]

I don't quite have the same view of Morley's performance as some. He's certainly not at his best, but he did put an absolute doozy in for Demps (I think) which Demps didn't do enough with.

As for the goal, sure he's hit a bad pass, but they hardly broke at the speed of sound from it, there was plenty of time for us to have dealt with it - there's two folks ambling near the guy who crossed it without either challenging, we're three (us) v two in the box but the guy gets a free header and whilst the shot's into the corner, I think you're hoping your keeper saves more of them than doesn't...

Dunno where he is on your spreadsheet of "minutes," but it feels like he's had a much longer season than Sheehan and Demps - which would be no surprise if he wasn't a bit shagged out comparatively...

[TANGODANCER]

Good news indeed, but it's at the other end of things the problems lie. There'll always be contrasting opinions which ever way things turn out "some of the people some of the time" etc. It'll be interesting to see if Evatt's ref complaints go anywhere, although it won't affect results.

Mean while the pressure has increased because of the Accy game, "for want of a goal",etc although a one point draw might not have been totally of use. We'll have to see. The sheer importance of this game makes it very different from the norm and Accy may as well be Real Madrid in our effort to win levels. A sudden explosion of hitting nets by us and the shrimpers can sail off into the sunset. It's truly now a MUST win game.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't quite have the same view of Morley's performance as some. He's certainly not at his best, but he did put an absolute doozy in for Demps (I think) which Demps didn't do enough with.

As for the goal, sure he's hit a bad pass, but they hardly broke at the speed of sound from it, there was plenty of time for us to have dealt with it - there's two folks ambling near the guy who crossed it without either challenging, we're three (us) v two in the box but the guy gets a free header and whilst the shot's into the corner, I think you're hoping your keeper saves more of them than doesn't...

Dunno where he is on your spreadsheet of "minutes," but it feels like he's had a much longer season than Sheehan and Demps - which would be no surprise if he wasn't a bit shagged out comparatively...

Excluding injury time he's played 3,413 minutes. The only outfielders to play more are Bradley (4,113), Geth (3,635) and Charles (3,508). Demps has played 2,990 and Sheehan just 1,553.

I don't think he played terribly and I don't particularly hold that crossfield ball – which led to the concession – against him (after all, it wasn't tippy-tappy; when you go longer, you risk turnovers, and as you so evocatively elucidate it's far from his fault alone that we didn't defend it). He's a fine young player and he can find the sort of pass we need. But I suspect he is tiring, and in Sheehan we have a similar 'sort' if we want to try something else - perhaps Kieran-style running and linking rather than sitting and passing.

[Bertie Wooster]

Some good news....

"EOIN Toal will be back in the Bolton Wanderers squad for Saturday’s home game against Fleetwood, Ian Evatt has confirmed."

Can he play up front ?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Evatt:
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... -instinct/

The chances haven’t dried up and we have created enough to win most games but for whatever reason we have lost a little bit of composure in front of goal. Our last decision, our last pass hasn’t been right, we’re over-thinking things or taking too many touches. We need to get back to being instinctive and making sure that we stay composed and confident. Football is a crazy game. It takes months and months to build up confidence but you can almost lose it overnight. As we always do, we will back the strikers to get it right on Saturday. We must stop over-thinking and making sure we are more clinical in the final third.

[Worthy4England]

Evatt:
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... -instinct/

The chances haven’t dried up and we have created enough to win most games but for whatever reason we have lost a little bit of composure in front of goal. Our last decision, our last pass hasn’t been right, we’re over-thinking things or taking too many touches. We need to get back to being instinctive and making sure that we stay composed and confident. Football is a crazy game. It takes months and months to build up confidence but you can almost lose it overnight. As we always do, we will back the strikers to get it right on Saturday. We must stop over-thinking and making sure we are more clinical in the final third.

Those words resonate with me, until we get to "get back to being instinctive"...part of the problem for me is the instinctive bit feels more like the outlier, whereas last decision, last pass, overthinking and too many touches, feel closer to the norm...

As someone once said after reading a contract we'd put in front of them (sometime after the big glossy sales pitches) - the words don't match the picture...

[Worthy4England]

I don't quite have the same view of Morley's performance as some. He's certainly not at his best, but he did put an absolute doozy in for Demps (I think) which Demps didn't do enough with.

As for the goal, sure he's hit a bad pass, but they hardly broke at the speed of sound from it, there was plenty of time for us to have dealt with it - there's two folks ambling near the guy who crossed it without either challenging, we're three (us) v two in the box but the guy gets a free header and whilst the shot's into the corner, I think you're hoping your keeper saves more of them than doesn't...

Dunno where he is on your spreadsheet of "minutes," but it feels like he's had a much longer season than Sheehan and Demps - which would be no surprise if he wasn't a bit shagged out comparatively...

Excluding injury time he's played 3,413 minutes. The only outfielders to play more are Bradley (4,113), Geth (3,635) and Charles (3,508). Demps has played 2,990 and Sheehan just 1,553.

I don't think he played terribly and I don't particularly hold that crossfield ball – which led to the concession – against him (after all, it wasn't tippy-tappy; when you go longer, you risk turnovers, and as you so evocatively elucidate it's far from his fault alone that we didn't defend it). He's a fine young player and he can find the sort of pass we need. But I suspect he is tiring, and in Sheehan we have a similar 'sort' if we want to try something else - perhaps Kieran-style running and linking rather than sitting and passing.

That seems to match sorta what I was thinking. I also suspect on a per game/ per minute basis he covers more yards than Demps and Sheehan, too...

[Worthy4England]

Some good news....

"EOIN Toal will be back in the Bolton Wanderers squad for Saturday’s home game against Fleetwood, Ian Evatt has confirmed."

Can he play up front ?

Are we nearly in "my gran" territory?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Dunno where he is on your spreadsheet of "minutes," but it feels like he's had a much longer season than Sheehan and Demps - which would be no surprise if he wasn't a bit shagged out comparatively...

Excluding injury time he's played 3,413 minutes. The only outfielders to play more are Bradley (4,113), Geth (3,635) and Charles (3,508). Demps has played 2,990 and Sheehan just 1,553.

I don't think he played terribly and I don't particularly hold that crossfield ball – which led to the concession – against him (after all, it wasn't tippy-tappy; when you go longer, you risk turnovers, and as you so evocatively elucidate it's far from his fault alone that we didn't defend it). He's a fine young player and he can find the sort of pass we need. But I suspect he is tiring, and in Sheehan we have a similar 'sort' if we want to try something else - perhaps Kieran-style running and linking rather than sitting and passing.

That seems to match sorta what I was thinking. I also suspect on a per game/ per minute basis he covers more yards than Demps and Sheehan, too...

Sheehan yeah. But Demps does get up and down a bit. Given their minutes and gametime, I'd guess those two are roughly level on yards run.

Meanhile... The strikers thing is really weird. And it affects all of them, to a lesser or (usually) greater extent. Since his lovely hat-trick (including two pengies) at Posh, Dion's scored two in 13 league games (11 starts, 1,057 minutes). He's still almost unarguably worth a starting spot, but I worry he's reverting to earlier form of needing two touches, or two chances.

Interesting that Adeboyejo has scored more (3) in that same time frame, from 679 minutes. He's made 8 starts in that time and those two are clearly Evatt's preferred front pairing. Not least as nobody else has looked likely at all. In the same timeframe, MK Dons onwards:
Big Dan 0 in 234 minutes (2 starts 6 subs)
Kacha 0 in 221 minutes (1 start 10 subs)
Jerome 0 in 206 minutes (1 start 6 subs)
Shola 0 in 509 minutes (7 starts 3 subs)

All those strikers have been outscored in that time by Mbete, Toal, Santos, Gethin, Randell, Bradley, John and Sheehan.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'd look at a different system. But we won't. Assuming Evatt plays the same system team I'd pick is...

Traf
Bradley
John
Johnston
Toal
Jones
MJ
Dempsey
Lee
Kachunga
Charles

I'm very torn between leaving Toal out and putting MJ back there and having Sheehan or Morley in midfield. But my thinking is this. I feel that we need to be a bit sharper in transition. MJ and Dempsey are both that. They can win it back and help us spring forward. Lee offers our best press and I think he with Charles and Kacha offers us a chance again to win the ball higher up the pitch. It maybe changes the nature of the game and moves us into more of a team that's looking to transition and get at them quickly from there than one that sinks into possession.

But I think we need a slightly different look.

It could go horribly wrong. Toal has never played that role. MJ hasn't played in midfield for an age. Morley and Sheehan are both very good and leaving them out is hard.

I'm picking something here that I feel shakes us out of our recent home performances a bit. Makes us more proactive off the ball. And more able to really press them. When was the last time we played a home game and you felt the press would really squeeze a team in? MK Dons?

[Harry Genshaw]

The chances haven’t dried up and we have created enough to win most games .

[/quote]

That majorly concerns me. Yes, we're lacking composure when we create a chance but the issue is we're most definitely not creating enough chances.

1 shot on target at Wednesday, Exeter, Oxford, home to Cambridge and up to the 80th minute on Tuesday. League 1 strikers tend to need 3 or 4 chances to take 1. We create more actual chances as opposed to going sideways 25 yards out, we'll score more.

[BWFC_Insane]

The chances haven’t dried up and we have created enough to win most games .

That majorly concerns me. Yes, we're lacking composure when we create a chance but the issue is we're most definitely not creating enough chances.

1 shot on target at Wednesday, Exeter, Oxford, home to Cambridge and up to the 80th minute on Tuesday. League 1 strikers tend to need 3 or 4 chances to take 1. We create more actual chances as opposed to going sideways 25 yards out, we'll score more.
[/quote]

Yeah I’m with this. We don’t create enough. I’m concerned when Evatt claims we created enough Tuesday when that amounted to Charles being through but miscontrolling it, Sheehan having the best chance but keeper saving it then one bouncing out to Shoretire who should have scored but again miscontrolled it.

With 67% possession. If we were a struggling premiership team I might say well three chances - we should be taking one and can’t expect to be doing too much more.

But top of league one against the teams at the bottom at home with 67% possession for me we should be knocking on the door far more.

If you look at Wembley first half we scored twice and created two really good chances outside of that. That’s 4 in a half. Against top of the league.

If we are playing Accrington at home like that we should be having double figures on target at least. And for me at least 6 clear chances. If we miss em all or keeper saves them then you still end up with a frustrating result but would feel more like odds in your favour.

My worry is Fleetwood are a better side and will setup just like Accrington did. It feels like if we don’t score our first chance very early it becomes very very difficult work.

[Prufrock]

I do wonder if he's talking about something else by chances given he talks about how the last decision or last pass aren't there. I'd describe that more as we're getting in good areas but aren't turning that into clear cut chances and goals, which I think is true.