Season 22/23 In Review

[BWFC_Insane]

So the dust has started to settle on what has been a very eventful season once again for Bolton Wanderers.

We went into the season off the back of a stunning end to the previous one a top half finish and a very strong run. The summer brought about some changes but maybe not as many as we expected in the transfer market the big additions being Trafford and Bradley plus the unfortunate Iredale.

We started the season (in July believe it or not) with a creditable draw at Ipswich followed by a thumping win against play off losers Wycombe. All seemed rosy as we ground out a draw away at PV with 10 men and beat Morecambe 1-0 in a similarly attritional manner - maybe the lessons from the previous season had been learned. August then took a nosedive with successive defeats to Sheffield Wednesday and then Plymouth sandwiching in a creditable but fruitless defeat to Aston Villa. The questions about our ability against the best this division had to offer surfacing again and issues around system and selection dominated.

September saw three back to back wins in the league - our first away win of the season at struggling MK dons. A 100% league record that again ignited hope this season was 'the one'.

Then we come to October and my thesis is this is the month we can look back on as being 'where we really slipped up'. If you want a month that encapsulates where our improvement is needed it is this one. Successive league defeats away to Cheltenham and FGR - both 1-0 followed by a dull 0-0 at home to Barnsley. Two wins followed against Accrington and Burton but both relied on late drama - a miraculous comeback at Accy inspired by Dapo and a very very late Dad Bod winner vs Burton. Neither remotely convincing. We then rounded off the month with defeat at home to Oxford in what on reflection might go down as the worst display of the season. In summation in October we lost 3 games to sides in the bottom reaches of the table - 9 points and couldn't beat a negative Barnsley at home - 11 points dropped in a busy month.

November started with a frustrating 0-0 at Cambridge followed by a win against Fleetwood - albeit not a convincing one. December a thoroughly frustrating month with draws against Bristol Rovers at home a defeat at Shrewsbury and draws against Derby and Lincoln. Points dropped that

January and February probably our peak in results with a busy period seeing 8 wins including the two back to back 5-0's (sans Bradley). Our only losses away to Derby, Wycombe and Portsmouth. March saw us draw with Morecambe in a typical (for us) failure against teams who adopt a low block before losing convincingly at home to Ipswich and then a recovery of sorts in a draw against Sheffield Wednesday.

The Wembley magic of course followed this.

Post Wembley we were on a solid run of 5 wins 2 draws and a loss. But again the draws came against strugglers Cambridge and already more or less just about safe Burton. Defeat to Accrington maybe sums up our struggles.

The play off campaign is obviously fresh but our failure against Barnsley mirrors the issues through the season. Press us high to stop us getting into the midfield, then get behind the ball and block the middle of the pitch off, defend your box and wait for a trigger to press and break on us. The formula is well established. The better the team the higher they press generally and the more in danger we are of conceding - the worse the team the more likely we can manage a 0-0.

On reflection its easy to talk about the January window that didn't give us the boost we hoped for - certainly not in terms of any signings becoming key components of a charge up the league - but I guess it did give us a short term boost in January and February - mainly through the addition of Shoretire who as an unknown for a few games playing in the second striker role did give us that counter punching ability, dribbling outlet. It didn't last and clearly as he was found out in men's football he was phased out of contention. Our form was better second half of the season. What is clear though is that we are always liable to have a good run followed by results that are just below where you'd expect. We struggle to build momentum and keep it going.

The clear and obvious take away is we've just dropped far too many points against bottom half teams. In periods where we went into games in good form too. October being the obvious one - 9 points dropped to the bottom 8 with 5 conceded and just 1 scored in reply. But that is scattered right across the season - including the end.

It has been a fantastic season overall. And we've achieved things that this club had forgotten it could with a huge Wembley turnout, thumping (against the odds) win and a cup for the cabinet. A play off campaign - (our first in two decades) and the biggest home crowds since Big Sam days. Its a great period to be a Bolton fan.

But there is a small but. There always has to be when ultimately the season ends in a small disappointment. The but is solving the problem of beating that 'sort of side' we haven't managed it in the previous two seasons and our results against them are worryingly consistent. Barnsley in the play offs exemplify it. We dominated the ball but they dominated the game. That has to be fixed because it happens a LOT at this level and more teams will copy it.

Fix that (along with replacements for key loanees) and I think we CAN easily mount a top 2 bid next season. But the question persists through multiple windows so someone I feel has to come up with something different to fix it. More of the same but better won't cut it now.

[Worthy4England]

I suspect in IE's head, the answer isn't "something different" nor "more of the same" - I suspect it might be "more of the similar"... As said elsewhere, I'm fairly sure the cunning plan was that Shortire could slot in around the 10 and help spread where we were able to "create from." It clearly didn't work. I do think he (as Ghost suggests too) might not be done with that cunning plan.

The conversation always comes up about the "target man" of course, and sure we know this can work to good effect but would probably be a bit more of a divergence.

I think after Jan transfer window (which for me has probably been our worst under IE in terms of actual end product), we still need to let him sort it out his way, until he stops sorting it out. Last year, we wanted him to get us to stop leaking goals - he made a pretty good fist of that. I'm just not sure he'll try to sort it out the same way as some posters would want. So what we usually do in cases like that is "state what we would do on the off-chance what IE does is different, then beat him with the stick every time what he's done doesn't work"....

[BWFC_Insane]

I suspect in IE's head, the answer isn't "something different" nor "more of the same" - I suspect it might be "more of the similar"... As said elsewhere, I'm fairly sure the cunning plan was that Shortire could slot in around the 10 and help spread where we were able to "create from." It clearly didn't work. I do think he (as Ghost suggests too) might not be done with that cunning plan.

The conversation always comes up about the "target man" of course, and sure we know this can work to good effect but would probably be a bit more of a divergence.

I think after Jan transfer window (which for me has probably been our worst under IE in terms of actual end product), we still need to let him sort it out his way, until he stops sorting it out. Last year, we wanted him to get us to stop leaking goals - he made a pretty good fist of that. I'm just not sure he'll try to sort it out the same way as some posters would want. So what we usually do in cases like that is "state what we would do on the off-chance what IE does is different, then beat him with the stick every time what he's done doesn't work"....

Evatt will I think get the issue and I'm not asking for him to change how we play. We simply need dimensions to deal with the obvious weakness we have. I don't think that can be fixed by becoming more dominant through possession - so we need to add something - be it dribbling potential, better delivery, more effective in box targets - or a combination to the mix.

The thing for me is the 'tire them out through possession' plan hasn't worked. I'm not convinced there is more scope to get significantly better at that either. We had 67% of possession against Barnsley - they are a good side and dominating that much ball - its not likely to get much better. If we offer more threat through dribbling, crossing, or an ability to be dangerous simply by putting it into the mix it would make what Barnsley did a lot harder to pull off - if you surrender that much possession and at any time are vulnerable to a one on one or a really quality delivery or just ball after ball into the box eventually leading to something - then that sort of game becomes harder to pull off.

For me I think Evatt is aware of the issue. He might not fix it with a target man (though he has form for wanting one presumably for this reason) but for me if we add more direct dribblers who can beat their man or better delivers of the ball this will help out considerably.

[GhostoftheBok]

I think after Jan transfer window (which for me has probably been our worst under IE in terms of actual end product)

Previous Januarys were easier to impact as standards were much lower. We had "oh god, everyone is crap" and "oh god, everyone is dead." This time it was, "Oh god, we're struggling in specific situations" and we tried to fit a jigsaw together in a moving vehicle to fix it. Key pieces got dropped on the floor (injured).

Like you, I'm not sure we're done with the loanees from Jan. We've put 6 months work into teaching them our system and integrating them into the squad. They are all clearly talented. I think we'll at least *want* them back.

For me this is a bit like the arguments about City last season. Grealish was a terrible flop who Pep needed to accept wasn't good enough and it was obvious even to a blind man. It turned out that Grealish is amazing, but people were looking at a player learning a role in an incomplete jigsaw. Grealish learnt his role and Haaland arrived - City are now after the treble.

Evatt is trying to rebuild Bolton a bit at the minute, to allow us to deal with those low blocks. We're at a vastly lower standard, but the principles are the same. Until all the pieces are there and put in the right places it's hard to see the picture; but what matters is the manager knows how it should go together.

If the loanees don't return I will also take a somewhat dim view of January; but I said at the time it was a window about this summer and I'll stick to my guns.

I think this summer is both the easiest and hardest of Evatt's time here, for contrasting reasons. It's easy because there's a lot of talent in the market, so getting "good" players shouldn't be hard. It's hard because we're already a good side and taking that extra step to being "the best" is always the hardest thing to do.

I want to see the retained list.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think Evatt knows what to do and how to make us stronger. I don't think he believes we can 'tire teams out' passing sideways and I don't think we'll hear that again. He knows we need a more threatening set of options in the opponents half, be it ball carriers or better delivery or more presence in the box to aim for.

I don't think that he's going to rip up how we play - nor should he. But its about tweaks that provide options. People talk about plan B but I think its more like having a modification for how we play when required. As said he tightened us up at the back because whilst he might like the idea of an expansive team who leave their wing backs high up the pitch the reality was last season we lost too many games because of that and being tighter and more compact was necessary. Even though I'm sure people said 'Evatt won't do that as its against his principles' or whatever.

Evatt is Allardyce to me - he's learning as he goes and adapting and knows that ultimately results are what matter. Much more than how you obtain them. This season is full of pragmatism. And next season will be the same.

I really don't think City comparisons help because a) we aren't stylistically at all like Man City and b) we're talking about the best team arguably ever to play the game in England signing the best striker the world has ever seen by a mile - so sure - you're going to see radical improvements when you have such a massive target who is also lightning fast and scores goals for fun. Its going to change many dynamics.

IF we sign an equivalent to Haaland he rest doesn't matter as much. But I think we're realistic to know that we're not at that point and unlikely to add even relative to the level a striker so far above the rest.

[Worthy4England]

A decent write up btw, Insano, pretty much as I'd recall it.

I don't think he's ever just had the one notion of "tire them out through possession," albeit, we'll take goals in the last 10, because they're too tired to stand up. Time and again in post-match interviews, he's said we've not done the right things, been brave enough playing through the lines etc. and as mentioned thought Shoretire might have helped open up the low block defence, in combination with what we already have. Wasn't to be so.

For me, what you're describing isn't evidenced much one way or another, so much by the possession stat, rather what we try to do when we're in the attacking third. Out of the top 7 this year, we have the lowest shots on target per game and the lowest minutes per shot on target, whilst at the same time spending roughly the same amount of time as every other team in the oppo third...

Ipswich got a shot on target every 4.6 mins when in the oppo third, us, around 8 minutes, top 7 all better than that. I think it sort of shows what we're seeing, which is too laboured in oppo third...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I want to see the retained list.

"Wanderers also have to address the seven first team players out of contract – and discussions are expected to take place with those affected early this week." - Ilesy

(BWFCi - looks an interesting piece - will have a proper read later, bit busy at the mo)

[BWFC_Insane]

A decent write up btw, Insano, pretty much as I'd recall it.

I don't think he's ever just had the one notion of "tire them out through possession," albeit, we'll take goals in the last 10, because they're too tired to stand up. Time and again in post-match interviews, he's said we've not done the right things, been brave enough playing through the lines etc. and as mentioned thought Shoretire might have helped open up the low block defence, in combination with what we already have. Wasn't to be so.

For me, what you're describing isn't evidenced much one way or another, so much by the possession stat, rather what we try to do when we're in the attacking third. Out of the top 7 this year, we have the lowest shots on target per game and the lowest minutes per shot on target, whilst at the same time spending roughly the same amount of time as every other team in the oppo third...

Ipswich got a shot on target every 4.6 mins when in the oppo third, us, around 8 minutes, top 7 all better than that. I think it sort of shows what we're seeing, which is too laboured in oppo third...

Yeah what I'm saying is if you are a team set on a low block or a press combined with a low block retreat (oh I'm using this horrible language now too) then its much easier to look at trying to condense the game into say a 30 minute period where maybe it opens out a bit and you fancy your chances of either holding on or nicking it if the team you are playing rarely will find solutions to create much in the first 60 minutes or so.

It is exactly what we do in the final third that matters. Whether its having a more direct dribbling option, super crosser somewhere or just more presence in the box. Any of those things make teams playing as above have more to worry about. If you are dropping off and letting your full backs get exposed to someone who can often beat them one on one OR you are dropping off and expect quality delivery into your area or you drop off and the ball is delivered earlier to a big 6ft plus lad who can play a bit and players get round them for second balls - any of those qualities makes sitting out the first 60 or 70 or 80 minutes harder. It means you have more chance of conceding a goal.

However good Morley gets or even Dempsey or Sheehan their qualities are mainly useful when there are pockets of space they aren't going to offer the key to these games. Neither would our wing backs of this season. Bradley the closest to it but his end product was a barrier.

[GhostoftheBok]

I really don't think City comparisons help because a) we aren't stylistically at all like Man City and b) we're talking about the best team arguably ever to play the game in England signing the best striker the world has ever seen by a mile - so sure - you're going to see radical improvements when you have such a massive target who is also lightning fast and scores goals for fun. Its going to change many dynamics.

IF we sign an equivalent to Haaland he rest doesn't matter as much. But I think we're realistic to know that we're not at that point and unlikely to add even relative to the level a striker so far above the rest.

City rebuilt a year in advance of Haaland arriving so that he could fit in. People claimed they'd made a load of transfer mistakes that season, because what was going on was a transition to a new style of play built around a direct centre forward.

What matters is how players fit together to find solutions. Where we are similar to City is in the level of information players need to take on to play effectively in our system.

Regarding the "people said Evatt wouldn't tighten up as it was against his principles", that never happened. What was said was that Evatt would fix the defending inline with his footballing principles and with the good players he had - rather than getting rid of his defenders and hoofing it out of the box. That's what has happened.

Evatt will find Evatty solutions using the resources he has, but it takes time.

[Worthy4England]

Slight edit - meant to say we had the highest minutes per shot on target in the final third (not the lowest) - confusing low with worse...

I do think there's probably improvement to come from Morley, mainly because he's a fair bit younger than Demps and Sheehan. I think if that was our preferred "starting three" at the start of next season, we're in bother, in a "going up" sense - that'd feel like too much of the same...

[BWFC_Insane]

Slight edit - meant to say we had the highest minutes per shot on target in the final third (not the lowest) - confusing low with worse...

I do think there's probably improvement to come from Morley, mainly because he's a fair bit younger than Demps and Sheehan. I think if that was our preferred "starting three" at the start of next season, we're in bother, in a "going up" sense - that'd feel like too much of the same...

Oh yeah I like Morley even though I think his end of season was not great.

I think he's a holding midfield player. And needs different players alongside and in front.

I like Dempsey too - I still just don't know what he is for us though. His hard running performances are great but it feels a bit like it works when teams don't track runners but when they do he struggles to make an impact.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Interesting write-up, BWFCi, cheers.


Looking at Opta's end-of-season stats, and considering he was apparently invisible for three months, Dapo left a hole in our attack.

He averaged 2.6 non-penalty shots per 90 minutes; only Dion (2.31) also cleared the 2-mark. (And we know he needs at least 2...)

Any fool can shoot from anywhere, but Dapo's non-penalty goals-per-90m rate of 0.22 was beaten only by Dion (0.3) and Adeboyejo (0.37). Good fridge. Nice fridge.

In terms of chances created per 90 minutes, Dapo (1.45) was second to Sexy Kieran (1.45, perhaps inflated by his increasingly common use as a late sub against tiring teams).

Irksomely for Sexy, the chances didn't turn into goals - his 0.05 open-play assists per 90 is way down the list behind leader Josh "why should he be applauded for passing forward?" Sheehan (0.17) and George "clearly not L1 standard" Thomason (0.16). Dapo was third (0.14). Fourth? That fridge again. We might also expect more from Dempsey and Morley (0.06).

As for expected assists - yes, yes, whatever - top of the pile was Conor Bradley, the man with no output, on 0.17. Sexy 2nd, Dapo 3rd.

More later. Dinner-time now.

[GhostoftheBok]

All our mids like space. Open the pitch up and we look amazing. Dapo could make things happen even when you couldn't see the space. He'd either get through or get fouled.

What we need are a couple of players who can operate in the midfield even when it's congested.

There's too much "Don't pass to me, I'm marked."

We need one deep and one further up who will say, "Give me the ball, I'll rip this guy to bits."

Every midfielder we have will be useful next season and they'll all improve in a midfield that includes lads who can receive passes when markers are touch-tight.

[BWFC_Insane]

All our mids like space. Open the pitch up and we look amazing. Dapo could make things happen even when you couldn't see the space. He'd either get through or get fouled.

What we need are a couple of players who can operate in the midfield even when it's congested.

There's too much "Don't pass to me, I'm marked."

We need one deep and one further up who will say, "Give me the ball, I'll rip this guy to bits."

Every midfielder we have will be useful next season and they'll all improve in a midfield that includes lads who can receive passes when markers are touch-tight.

Yeah - and that was never more apparent than against Barnsley.

Its also about players further forward that make teams less able to press high. If you have a one pass chance of isolating Dapo or someone like that one on one it scares teams. Whereas a one pass chance to get Gethin Jones or Randell Williams on the run is less of a scare factor.

There are different types too aren't there in midfield. There is your deep lying midfield player who comes for the ball - they need as you say to be comfortable in tight spaces, have a passing range but they probably aren't going past people. Then there is the 8 and 10's who can take it tight and make something happen - your Mark Davies for example.

I do also strongly think that no matter what happens in the centre of midfield we need more out wide and higher up the pitch because that is what will stretch teams, make them drop or simply create the gaps between lines we can play into. The system we play vacates centre mid too often for me especially in games like Barnsley at home. Its where I think a 343 (with width in the front 3) would help us.

[Worthy4England]

There is an interview with Dapo in the Bolton News....pretty much confirming what we all thought we saw...IE not playing with wingers, tried him as a sorta 9, 10 and LWB so he didn't see where he fit in anymore...I didn't particularly want to see him go, but unless we were going to try and use him in his best position, then I understand why he felt it was in his best interests to move on.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There is an interview with Dapo in the Bolton News....pretty much confirming what we all thought we saw...IE not playing with wingers, tried him as a sorta 9, 10 and LWB so he didn't see where he fit in anymore...I didn't particularly want to see him go, but unless we were going to try and use him in his best position, then I understand why he felt it was in his best interests to move on.

I assume the interview quotes are entirely lifted from The Athletic's exclusive

Yeah, he didn't fit this system as well as the back four, and he probably needed to move on - he's never stayed anywhere long. I miss him, but it was probably the right move. I do feel, though, that we haven't replaced him – which only makes the achievement of reaching the playoffs that much more impressive.

[BWFC_Insane]

For all the positional talk I think it boils down to Dapo's heart wasn't in it anymore. I don't think he wanted to stay even if we played a 433. He'd had some good games up front, including beating Sunderland 5-0, 3-0 v Wycombe etc..he could have played up top for me if he'd really wanted to. He just obviously wanted to move in the summer probably or shortly after.

I too think we didn't replace him but probably a direct replacement was hard we needed to get his qualities in a couple and January probably fell short because Vic wasn't a good enough striker (stats aside) to command a regular starting place and Shoretire wasn't close to being a number 10 solution for us.

If both of those had come off we'd have probably felt like we were better off. They didn't. We managed to win the games to get us there but I do agree with twitter land that the Barnsley tie - Dapo on form and in the mood would have likely made a difference. But clearly were he here he'd likely have not been in the mood nor made the difference - given he didn't want to be here.

[GhostoftheBok]

Dapo had to go. That's done. We need some of the same attributes though, that much is true.

In Prem terms we need Rice and Eze - which by the way would be a great headline if they ever play together in a winning side.

We need a deep mid who can carry the ball through a press and an attacking mid who scares the living shit out of defenders.

[BWFC_Insane]

Dapo had to go. That's done. We need some of the same attributes though, that much is true.

In Prem terms we need Rice and Eze - which by the way would be a great headline if they ever play together in a winning side.

We need a deep mid who can carry the ball through a press and an attacking mid who scares the living shit out of defenders.

Can we have an MGW too please?

[GhostoftheBok]

Can we have an MGW too please?

Only if you eat all your vegetables.