Season 23/24 Predictions

[Mar]

(slightly off-topic but) Gareth Ainsworth has a prediction: that the new anti-timewsting regulations will be rescinded.

"People who have probably never played the game have made some of these rules," he whined. "I've really challenged some of them. We were the kings of time management at Wycombe. God knows what they will put on, but let's suck it and see. I think that there will be some in-season reviews on some of these rules. I really do, because I can't see them working."

Frig off you twunt. (He also has the brass neck and thick head to then say "It's a brilliant game and let's hope it doesn't get spoiled by too many stoppages.")

So basically, "We're going to keep spoiling the game and hopefully it'll become so problematic the authorities will give up."

Aye. Although given he's gone public on it, every manager of possession-based Champo teams (and that would these days be the majority) will presumably be reminding the officials of his determination to undermine the rules they've been told to apply. For the paying customers.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone down the tactical route of trying to figure out how to waste time on the pitch. For instance, defenders retaining the ball or keepers retaining the ball until they get pressed. At least this time they get to get pressed to speed the game up.

[Mar]

I find it interesting how many of us think May will go well. Yet we spent more money to sign Nlundulu….

I still do wonder how much we might regret that.

Less resale value for May than for N'lundulu. May's 30 and N'lundulu's 24. May comes good and there's no money to be had there. N'lundulu comes good and theres a sellable asset. Surely that's come into the thinking.

[Prufrock]

I think it's "ceiling" generally, not just resale value. May is a good L1 striker but realistically he's never going to be more than that. And he's only had success at league level full stop at Cheltenham where he's the main man, and even then nearer to 1 in 3 than 1 in 2.

Nlundulu might not even get to that level like, but equally there's much more potential in there.

[BWFC_Insane]

I find it interesting how many of us think May will go well. Yet we spent more money to sign Nlundulu….

I still do wonder how much we might regret that.

Less resale value for May than for N'lundulu. May's 30 and N'lundulu's 24. May comes good and there's no money to be had there. N'lundulu comes good and theres a sellable asset. Surely that's come into the thinking.

I get that but I’m not sure of the validity. If promotion is worth 6-7M in extra revenue and we all think May is likely to bag 15 plus. How much would he be worth to us vs potential? Potential that at 24 has not at all been realised. I doubt many million pound strikers have ever had 6 league goals by age 24. Even later maturing ones.

[Mar]

I think it's "ceiling" generally, not just resale value. May is a good L1 striker but realistically he's never going to be more than that. And he's only had success at league level full stop at Cheltenham where he's the main man, and even then nearer to 1 in 3 than 1 in 2.

Nlundulu might not even get to that level like, but equally there's much more potential in there.

I guess the presumption with Alfie May is that he's only just hitting his stride late in his career. It's probably the reason no-one higher than League One has taken a gamble on him and clubs are thinking its a calculated gamble rather than something that will definitively pay off.

Southampton had N'lundulu on their books for a decade, coming through the youth ranks and having something that may or may not come off. Given they've been one of the best producers of talent over the years its highly likely that there's something there from N'lundulu that makes him an untapped resource. Should he manage to fulfil his potential he'll be able to go to a higher level than Alfie May you would suspect. Right now however, its hard to say that N'lundulu is the better of the two options, just that N'lundulu has more potential.

[Mar]

I find it interesting how many of us think May will go well. Yet we spent more money to sign Nlundulu….

I still do wonder how much we might regret that.

Less resale value for May than for N'lundulu. May's 30 and N'lundulu's 24. May comes good and there's no money to be had there. N'lundulu comes good and theres a sellable asset. Surely that's come into the thinking.

I get that but I’m not sure of the validity. If promotion is worth 6-7M in extra revenue and we all think May is likely to bag 15 plus. How much would he be worth to us vs potential? Potential that at 24 has not at all been realised. I doubt many million pound strikers have ever had 6 league goals by age 24. Even later maturing ones.

That's the trade off. Not all of the decisions being made are down to the current state of play, some are driven by financial and tactical decisions that aren't around goals. Clearly working with the player, Evatt has seen enough to be able to know its a calculated risk. He's probably scouted May and either considered the cost too high or that May isn't as good in the press as the likes of N'lundulu, Charles or Adeboyejo. Not only that but he might not fit the system we play very well. I can't see Evatt changing systems to solely suit a striker.

Clearly the argument is, how much does it cost, whats the resell value, what does it provide and for how long.

We signed Elmander at 27 years of age on a three year deal. At 30 his resale value had gone and we'd essentially lost a good £8.2m. Signing May for money would definitely end up in a similar manner as no one would likely be splashing money around on a 32 year old. At least with N'lundulu, there's a chance for profit and success.

[Prufrock]

I find it interesting how many of us think May will go well. Yet we spent more money to sign Nlundulu….

I still do wonder how much we might regret that.

I don't know,
Less resale value for May than for N'lundulu. May's 30 and N'lundulu's 24. May comes good and there's no money to be had there. N'lundulu comes good and theres a sellable asset. Surely that's come into the thinking.

I get that but I’m not sure of the validity. If promotion is worth 6-7M in extra revenue and we all think May is likely to bag 15 plus. How much would he be worth to us vs potential? Potential that at 24 has not at all been realised. I doubt many million pound strikers have ever had 6 league goals by age 24. Even later maturing ones.

It's 6 more than May had. Vardy, Lambert come to mind.

The other thing is Dion is obviously going to play and be the main man. Not sure you're breaking many defensive teams down with May and Charles.

It's suck it and see. I can see your thinking, but I can see the club's too. Ultimately the proof is in the tasting.

[BWFC_Insane]

I find it interesting how many of us think May will go well. Yet we spent more money to sign Nlundulu….

I still do wonder how much we might regret that.

I don't know,
Less resale value for May than for N'lundulu. May's 30 and N'lundulu's 24. May comes good and there's no money to be had there. N'lundulu comes good and theres a sellable asset. Surely that's come into the thinking.

I get that but I’m not sure of the validity. If promotion is worth 6-7M in extra revenue and we all think May is likely to bag 15 plus. How much would he be worth to us vs potential? Potential that at 24 has not at all been realised. I doubt many million pound strikers have ever had 6 league goals by age 24. Even later maturing ones.

It's 6 more than May had. Vardy, Lambert come to mind.

The other thing is Dion is obviously going to play and be the main man. Not sure you're breaking many defensive teams down with May and Charles.

It's suck it and see. I can see your thinking, but I can see the club's too. Ultimately the proof is in the tasting.

Sure but Vardy had a lot at non league. May isn’t and hasn’t ever been a million pound striker either.

If Nlundulu matures into May at the same rate that is no use to us.

There is always a balance and for me the one thing that would have really seen is much more likely to go up is that extra goalscorer proven at this level.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I find it interesting how many of us think May will go well. Yet we spent more money to sign Nlundulu….

I still do wonder how much we might regret that.

More money gross. I think the idea is Nlundulu will have resale value (I hope that's true) whereas May's signed a two-year contract with an optional extra year; depending on that extension, that contract will end three days before either his 32nd or 33rd birthday.

Obviously a very effective player can tip the balance, which is why Fergie broke his own "no expensive oldies" rule to sign Van Persie. However, it might be telling that the local Charlton press said the main rivals for May's signature were Bristol Rovers and Gillingham (he's a Kent lad), so clearly plenty of other clubs made the same calculation.

[Worthy4England]

Bit on the fence, here. If N'lundulu was our main spearhead, first pick, goalscorer, then sure, I'd be really worried. Because that's what we're comparing him against. As it happens, I mentally have him as #4/#5 out of 5, so somewhat less worried. DadBod and Vic need to step up, more importantly, for me...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Bit on the fence, here. If N'lundulu was our main spearhead, first pick, goalscorer, then sure, I'd be really worried. Because that's what we're comparing him against. As it happens, I mentally have him as #4/#5 out of 5, so somewhat less worried. DadBod and Vic need to step up, more importantly, for me...

This is fair, too. I suspect Dan's ahead of Jerome but when Bod's back you would imagine Dan's 4th – although "sixth striker" CMG might be preferred for some fixtures: Evatt certainly seems to be in horses-for-courses mode, and that's fine by me if he makes those calls right.

Obviously Victor's got to step up, but you're right to say that so has Bod. 3 goals in 21 league appearances last season - ok, many as sub, but he still racked up 758 league minutes so that's one every 4hrs 12mins (and shouldn't strikers profit against tired defenders?) Of those three, two were 'grace goals' when we were already ahead.

For clarity, I like Bod, he's a good player and a good man. But he's got some faith to repay too. To a greater or lesser extent, they all have – and it starts tomorrow. COYWM!!

[BWFC_Insane]

Bit on the fence, here. If N'lundulu was our main spearhead, first pick, goalscorer, then sure, I'd be really worried. Because that's what we're comparing him against. As it happens, I mentally have him as #4/#5 out of 5, so somewhat less worried. DadBod and Vic need to step up, more importantly, for me...

I agree. I just think that should we have added May for £250K or even Stockton who can score a lot at this level and are experienced enough - we’d have had another potential 20 goal a season striker to go with Charles. Which would have spread the risk but also maybe taken some pressure off.

It’s possibly Vic or Dan will net a lot this season it’s just not something we can really say based on history is likely. But history isn’t the full story. I hope we can find the goals amongst the strikers and I think we probably can so long as it’s not like last season where it was Charles and whoever we could muster to go with him.

[Worthy4England]

Not sure anyone knows the shape of both deals. May was undisclosed and we have no idea what his weekly payments were. I'd be pretty surprised if we were offering the same total terms to N'lundulu as we'd have needed to secure May...

[BWFC_Insane]

Not sure anyone knows the shape of both deals. May was undisclosed and we have no idea what his weekly payments were. I'd be pretty surprised if we were offering the same total terms to N'lundulu as we'd have needed to secure May...

I’d honestly be surprised if Nlundulu was cheaper. I suspect considerably more. Higher reported fee. Premiership player (albeit relegated) with a year left…..vs 30 year old league one journeyman.

I think Stockton and May would have cost less. Much lower resale value for sure. It’s a question of how much more they’d have contributed to success this season for me.

[Mar]

Bit on the fence, here. If N'lundulu was our main spearhead, first pick, goalscorer, then sure, I'd be really worried. Because that's what we're comparing him against. As it happens, I mentally have him as #4/#5 out of 5, so somewhat less worried. DadBod and Vic need to step up, more importantly, for me...

This is fair, too. I suspect Dan's ahead of Jerome but when Bod's back you would imagine Dan's 4th – although "sixth striker" CMG might be preferred for some fixtures: Evatt certainly seems to be in horses-for-courses mode, and that's fine by me if he makes those calls right.

Obviously Victor's got to step up, but you're right to say that so has Bod. 3 goals in 21 league appearances last season - ok, many as sub, but he still racked up 758 league minutes so that's one every 4hrs 12mins (and shouldn't strikers profit against tired defenders?) Of those three, two were 'grace goals' when we were already ahead.

For clarity, I like Bod, he's a good player and a good man. But he's got some faith to repay too. To a greater or lesser extent, they all have – and it starts tomorrow. COYWM!!

I don't think Evatt sees N'lundulu as 4th or 5th choice but rather a squad option where its needed. So while we might consider him not to be first choice I think the reality is, its much more nuanced than that.

Had we signed Stockton or May I don't think either would have been happy playing second fiddle to Charles or Adeboyejo.

If you listen to the interview with Evatt and Markham, they talk about players that can do specific roles on the pitch. Notably wingbacks where one is intended for defence and the other for offence with both having some overlapping skillsets, so its a case of picking the right person for the right game. I'd imagine that's the case with our squad where players are of a similar ilk.

Bodvarsson / Jerome
Charles / Adeboyejo
Gomes / N'lundulu

Likelihood is they get swapped out, rotated, whatever, when its not working.

So the pitch to N'lundulu wouldn't have necessarily been you're coming in to be first choice, second choice or whatever. It more than likely would've been we're signing you to do this specific job on the pitch.

[GhostoftheBok]

Alfie May's wages at Charlton are rumoured to be considerable by League One standards. Unless we've broken the wage structure to sign Nlundulu (we've clearly not) then I very much doubt the Nlundulu deal will be more over the course of the first two years.

Regardless, the comparison doesn't really matter, If Evatt needs a striker that looks like a Dan Nlundulu then the alternative is not "or Alfie May."

What other player who offers what Nlundulu does could we have got in for the same money?

[Worthy4England]

Bit on the fence, here. If N'lundulu was our main spearhead, first pick, goalscorer, then sure, I'd be really worried. Because that's what we're comparing him against. As it happens, I mentally have him as #4/#5 out of 5, so somewhat less worried. DadBod and Vic need to step up, more importantly, for me...

This is fair, too. I suspect Dan's ahead of Jerome but when Bod's back you would imagine Dan's 4th – although "sixth striker" CMG might be preferred for some fixtures: Evatt certainly seems to be in horses-for-courses mode, and that's fine by me if he makes those calls right.

Obviously Victor's got to step up, but you're right to say that so has Bod. 3 goals in 21 league appearances last season - ok, many as sub, but he still racked up 758 league minutes so that's one every 4hrs 12mins (and shouldn't strikers profit against tired defenders?) Of those three, two were 'grace goals' when we were already ahead.

For clarity, I like Bod, he's a good player and a good man. But he's got some faith to repay too. To a greater or lesser extent, they all have – and it starts tomorrow. COYWM!!

I don't think Evatt sees N'lundulu as 4th or 5th choice but rather a squad option where its needed. So while we might consider him not to be first choice I think the reality is, its much more nuanced than that.

Had we signed Stockton or May I don't think either would have been happy playing second fiddle to Charles or Adeboyejo.

If you listen to the interview with Evatt and Markham, they talk about players that can do specific roles on the pitch. Notably wingbacks where one is intended for defence and the other for offence with both having some overlapping skillsets, so its a case of picking the right person for the right game. I'd imagine that's the case with our squad where players are of a similar ilk.

Bodvarsson / Jerome
Charles / Adeboyejo
Gomes / N'lundulu

Likelihood is they get swapped out, rotated, whatever, when its not working.

So the pitch to N'lundulu wouldn't have necessarily been you're coming in to be first choice, second choice or whatever. It more than likely would've been we're signing you to do this specific job on the pitch.

Point is, bit like Dion, who, apart from when he's "rested" is probably up there with the names you'd expect to see on the team sheet, Alfie May would likely expect to be starting most of the time too.

[Mar]

Point is, bit like Dion, who, apart from when he's "rested" is probably up there with the names you'd expect to see on the team sheet, Alfie May would likely expect to be starting most of the time too.

Exactly, and I think that's where the N'lundulu deal makes sense. I don't think N'lundulu's come here expecting to start most matches, I suspect he's more than likely come in to give a good account of himself and earn those starting spots. We wouldn't have that with May, he'd've likely been starting striker.

[BWFC_Insane]

Point is, bit like Dion, who, apart from when he's "rested" is probably up there with the names you'd expect to see on the team sheet, Alfie May would likely expect to be starting most of the time too.

Exactly, and I think that's where the N'lundulu deal makes sense. I don't think N'lundulu's come here expecting to start most matches, I suspect he's more than likely come in to give a good account of himself and earn those starting spots. We wouldn't have that with May, he'd've likely been starting striker.

But that’s cos he’s a better player who more than likely would improve the team and score goals though?

I don’t get that. We signed a player who would be happy being a backup to another player who is worse than a player we could have signed but didn’t

Is the argument really that we wouldn’t sign a player who would be first choice for fear of having to have a stronger team?

[Mar]

Point is, bit like Dion, who, apart from when he's "rested" is probably up there with the names you'd expect to see on the team sheet, Alfie May would likely expect to be starting most of the time too.

Exactly, and I think that's where the N'lundulu deal makes sense. I don't think N'lundulu's come here expecting to start most matches, I suspect he's more than likely come in to give a good account of himself and earn those starting spots. We wouldn't have that with May, he'd've likely been starting striker.

But that’s cos he’s a better player who more than likely would improve the team and score goals though?

I don’t get that. We signed a player who would be happy being a backup to another player who is worse than a player we could have signed but didn’t

Is the argument really that we wouldn’t sign a player who would be first choice for fear of having to have a stronger team?

You can't keep buying first choice strikers without making other players second choice. Clearly we've had the chance to discuss a deal with Alfie May when we were interested in Adeboyejo. When we signed Adeboyejo we had him as a main player, signing him and then making him second fiddle would be bad business planning. So we've gone down the route of signing players that will help get the best out of what we have, in which case this is N'lundulu.