Burn after Reading. Reading (A) League 1. Saturday 16th September 2023. 3pm KO

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

See, this is the problem. I genuinely wasn't setting a trap when asking for the "4231 XI" but after making the post – actually on a flight while experiencing some particularly bad turbulence, always good for focusing the mind on the important things – I realised I wasn't asking the right question, and the XI certainly isn't solving the right problem, or even the second-biggest problem.

The biggest problem right now is that only one of our strikers looks anything like scoring (and still not always reliably so - which is not to criticise the chances he does convert, without which we'd be f*cked, but I can only imagine the reaction if our other strikers had spurned some of the chances Dion's passed up). Victor's four goals look good on paper, but the last of them was more than a month ago; he's made nine appearances and not scored in seven of them, including the last six. The longer that goes on, the more the Fleetwood hat-trick looks like an outlier. And yet he is clearly, almost unarguably, our second-best striker, largely because the third, fourth and fifth are so desperately underachieving.

That problem becomes particularly acute when we change the strikers. For a long time we had the league's most effective bench, who came on to capitalise on the "starters" having run the oppo ragged. We scored the most late goals. We never stopped. Now, it feels like we need a two-goal cushion before the hour, or the wobble begins. And I'm not sure replacing a striker with a left-back helps that.

Poor sub options are part of what is currently (IMO) the second-biggest problem: a shallow squad. Sure, had we kept everybody fit, it might have worked. But we haven't, because we never do (whether we suffer an unusually high injury rate is an interesting side discussion). Before the international break, it didn't matter much as most of the knocks were to the back three, where we have the best depth (funny, that). Now it's hitting us in the "finishers" - the lads who might come on to change the game or see it out. Again, and while being aware of green-grass pathology and the Andranik syndrome, I weep for the Premier loanees we spurned. Right now, with CMG & Maghoma out, I'd welcome back Shoretire. But I'm also convinced there are fellas we turned down that Evatt may now regret.

Losing CMG is unfortunate; simultaneously losing Maghoma leaves us with very few gamechangers. Because the strikers sure ain't doing it - see (the current) "main problem" as diagnosed by Dr Barnet – and the shallow squad means we have very few changemakers behind them. Evatt's gambling has become a problem.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Surely time to start Bod or why give him a contract to warm benches? Why indeed did we even sign him if we don't intend to use him? Has he not fully recovered fro injury, or what. Speak up Mr Evatt....?

All sorts of questions over Bod. He's been firmly relegated to fifth-choice striker – frequently left benched when Dan and Cameron have lumbered on, or brought on as last-chance third-choice. His only start, against Salford, didn't exactly scorch the turf.

Was that contract gamble another mistake? Or a lack of imagination?

[BWFC_Insane]

^ Totally agree DSB but my thesis is this....the system we play is expansive...it requires a lot of work from the wingbacks (for whom we have no cover) and the midfield (their cover is injured). Therefore given our strikers (IF Charles is out) are all poor why not play 1 up top and be a little more tight in behind, restrict spaces and free Dempsey up to get in and join up with Adeboyejo.

A less expansive, less 'running' based system built to try and win tight games 1 or 2 nil in the immediate situation. This assumes Charles is out. We aren't likely to smash 4 in minus Charles and therefore we can't be leaving ourselves reliant on a non existent bench to see games out as players tire - so we need a more calculated and measured approach.

The problem with the 352 is its main advantage is 2 up top but if one of your two is one of the 3 backups then you are not just handing yourself a deficit but giving the opposition a leg up - as things stand - assuming that they don't step up (which they really should considering they are being paid and not small amounts).

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yeah, I can see the switch making sense if we're protecting a lead. But it's one of those "wish carefully" scenarios. Imagine we play 4231 and we're 1-0 up despite Dion's injury. Vic has run himself to a standstill. Who the hell comes on? Nlundulu brings to mind a phrase from Tim Parks' Serie A memoir A Season with Verona about a particularly inept player – "I'm afraid he's in the wrong job". Bodvarsson is a shadow of himself, a huge risk. Jerome isn't so much yesterday's man as last decade's. The problem with having no decent back-up strikers is that if there's only one of them, they're laughably easy to defend against.

Alternatively, say we're winning 1-0 and Evatt decides to switch to this 'safer' system. Subs a striker for Iredale, who is hardly the golden boy du jour. Is that a change that's going to be warmly received?

IDK. As a general rule there's clear logical sense in reducing the number of passengers in the team. (Another memorable concept from A Season with Verona - an interesting book, if already toe-curlingly dated in some of its language – is that football is just 11 blokes trying to do something good while trying to stop something bad happening.) But I don't think going more defensive is necessarily the answer. We're already teetering on the edge of not scoring enough – in the last five games against teams better than Salford, Charles is the only Wanderer to score.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'd argue its less about going more defensive and more about not leaving the pitch so wide open and asking our lot to do so much running when we're clearly flagging in games and not looking like burying games early enough to render the flagging irrelevant.

The issue being we don't have the bodies to come on and manage the system we're playing through.

Systems aren't the whole story I just think we need to be more compact, less open and consider eeking out some results in the current situation. If we're leaving games 1-0 I'd rather we'd not flogged ourselves as much as we are doing and have some more in the tank to try and see it out. I think the current system is a problem in that scenario if we've not got the adequate quality off the bench MORE than say having a back four.

But I'm not screaming for a system change as I don't think its a panacea. The system we play suits us best its just current circumstances are suggesting issues with immediate results.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye.

To play devil's advocate - if your first XI is massively better than your bench, maybe the thing to do is not make so many subs. Which in our case means not so much "going defensive" as "going reactive".

It's not something I can easily imgine Evatt doing, though. He's frequently been commendably open to formation switches - in each season, if you include last spring's relatively minor inversion of the midfield triangle from "two behind a 10" to "quarterback behind two free 8s". But he's always, always been about relentlessness - even down to the famous "run off at half-time" diktat. I prefer that attitude to the awful gloves-up prepare-to-be-pummeled experience of Champo Parky or Dougie "control without the ball" Freedman. But it comes at a cost.

[Worthy4England]

I think if you're playing a style that almost begs the "starters" to run themselves ragged for 60 minutes - a fairly conscious decision - knowing they get a shower after that, then you either have to equip the squad in a manner that supports a third of every game with fresh legs and some level of parity, or you need a serious look at whether the approach is sustainable. I doubt just telling Dion, Vic, JDC and Randy not to run as far over 60 minutes, is aligned to what we're trying to achieve....

It feels to me like we need to move to "something" that's not what we currently do and get more out of the players the high side of the capability line. That de facto means less running over 60.

[TANGODANCER]

Bottom line, to win games and points in this league we need to score two goals first. Tactic it to death, it's a fact/

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think if you're playing a style that almost begs the "starters" to run themselves ragged for 60 minutes - a fairly conscious decision - knowing they get a shower after that, then you either have to equip the squad in a manner that supports a third of every game with fresh legs and some level of parity, or you need a serious look at whether the approach is sustainable.

Which is why the thin-squad decision is so weird – and already backfiring, a fortnight or so into what might be a long winter.

[BWFC_Insane]

It feels to me like we need to move to "something" that's not what we currently do and get more out of the players the high side of the capability line. That de facto means less running over 60.

That was my thought with the system change (IF Charles is out). Less workload for JDC and Randy - with full backs behind them. Midfield less stretched out into the wide areas so a bit more contained in terms of running.

Theory is never the same as practice but the high line 3 at the back system we adopt seems problematic if we aren't able to stay the course or adequately replace players as they tire.

[Harry Genshaw]

Pretty pissed off at us for losing this one. Last year we were tight at the back but didn't create or convert, enough chances.

Saturday we looked shaky at the back from the off and yet created enough chances to have been able to declare by the hour mark. Converting still an issue then.

I like Evatt, still trust him but even this early on I can't see us being in contention at Christmas time. If we've too much to do by then,another season in L1 awaits. That wouldn't be the worst thing. Of course, I do want to see us progress and win every game we play but I watched Leicester last Friday and it made me fearful of what would happen if we did go up

[officer_dibble]

This is the year to go up…next year the 3 clubs coming down won’t be in as big a mess (of course we’ve done our upmost to dispel that myth), we’ll likely have a notts county/Wrexham type with money coming up and then there will be stronger Wigans etc. we really could do with going up this season.

[BWFC_Insane]

Somewhere along the line (should have happened ages ago) which is now we need to stop the BS talk.

Football management is a simple game. Assemble the best team you possibly can within budget constraints organise them, get them fit and then pick them in combinations that win as many games as possible.

Our best manager ever knew this. He knew that assembling the best talent often meant being creative or sacrificing some of his ideals. Was Stelios his ideal? Unlikely but he was an outstanding footballer who made us better and I doubt we could have signed that in a bigger more robust package.

Evatt who is clearly never reaching the levels Allardyce did needs to learn this. You can’t manage in league one by taking never have beens spending your resources on them and hoping. It’s three summers running where he’s in various guises claimed we didn’t need better players available to us and each time he’s been bang wrong.

So no - the process is bogus. It’s flawed. It won’t work.

The only thing that works is putting a team out that week in week is good enough to win games. Whether that’s sweeping teams off the park 4-0 or grinding out a lot of 1-0’s from set pieces doesn’t ultimately matter…but either way you need the best players to do it. Not to be rejecting clearly better players cos they won’t ‘press’ but might score goals.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Pretty pissed off at us for losing this one. Last year we were tight at the back but didn't create or convert, enough chances.

Saturday we looked shaky at the back from the off and yet created enough chances to have been able to declare by the hour mark. Converting still an issue then.

I like Evatt, still trust him but even this early on I can't see us being in contention at Christmas time. If we've too much to do by then,another season in L1 awaits. That wouldn't be the worst thing. Of course, I do want to see us progress and win every game we play but I watched Leicester last Friday and it made me fearful of what would happen if we did go up

Nodding away to much of this, although I do think this season is a very good chance and fanbase patience might thin considerably.

On the bold - Ilesy's brave-facing piece on striker possibilities notes how Vic's xG is high, but I think this raises more questions...
I note that as a team we are actually ahead of our xG so by that rationale we're scoring more than we should... but the eyes say different...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Somewhere along the line (should have happened ages ago) which is now we need to stop the BS talk.

Best close the forum...

[Worthy4England]

Somewhere along the line (should have happened ages ago) which is now we need to stop the BS talk.

Football management is a simple game. Assemble the best team you possibly can within budget constraints organise them, get them fit and then pick them in combinations that win as many games as possible.

Our best manager ever knew this. He knew that assembling the best talent often meant being creative or sacrificing some of his ideals. Was Stelios his ideal? Unlikely but he was an outstanding footballer who made us better and I doubt we could have signed that in a bigger more robust package.

Evatt who is clearly never reaching the levels Allardyce did needs to learn this. You can’t manage in league one by taking never have beens spending your resources on them and hoping. It’s three summers running where he’s in various guises claimed we didn’t need better players available to us and each time he’s been bang wrong.

So no - the process is bogus. It’s flawed. It won’t work.

The only thing that works is putting a team out that week in week is good enough to win games. Whether that’s sweeping teams off the park 4-0 or grinding out a lot of 1-0’s from set pieces doesn’t ultimately matter…but either way you need the best players to do it. Not to be rejecting clearly better players cos they won’t ‘press’ but might score goals.

Evatt does have the highest win rate for 125 years and one the lowest loss rate, despite his "errors of judgement/capability" jsl

[boltonboris]

If he had us in the play-offs last season playing ugly defensive, back to front football, I'm convinced our fans would think more highly of him.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If he had us in the play-offs last season playing ugly defensive, back to front football, I'm convinced our fans would think more highly of him.

All our fans, most of them, or just some of the loudest ones?

[truewhite15]

If he had us in the play-offs last season playing ugly defensive, back to front football, I'm convinced our fans would think more highly of him.

This. HOOF!

[BWFC_Insane]

Somewhere along the line (should have happened ages ago) which is now we need to stop the BS talk.

Football management is a simple game. Assemble the best team you possibly can within budget constraints organise them, get them fit and then pick them in combinations that win as many games as possible.

Our best manager ever knew this. He knew that assembling the best talent often meant being creative or sacrificing some of his ideals. Was Stelios his ideal? Unlikely but he was an outstanding footballer who made us better and I doubt we could have signed that in a bigger more robust package.

Evatt who is clearly never reaching the levels Allardyce did needs to learn this. You can’t manage in league one by taking never have beens spending your resources on them and hoping. It’s three summers running where he’s in various guises claimed we didn’t need better players available to us and each time he’s been bang wrong.

So no - the process is bogus. It’s flawed. It won’t work.

The only thing that works is putting a team out that week in week is good enough to win games. Whether that’s sweeping teams off the park 4-0 or grinding out a lot of 1-0’s from set pieces doesn’t ultimately matter…but either way you need the best players to do it. Not to be rejecting clearly better players cos they won’t ‘press’ but might score goals.

Evatt does have the highest win rate for 125 years and one the lowest loss rate, despite his "errors of judgement/capability" jsl

That’s true and I’m not calling for him to be sacked. I’m simply stating that for three summers now we’ve made the same mistake. We’ve only really been at a point where you could argue we were ‘better’ than the season before post January though last season I’m not sure we improved then either.

Evatt has improved our league finish season on season but what he’s not done is take us into a season where we look convincingly like one of the best two teams in the league. And that was the job this time. The only thing that mattered was having the best squad most able to win week in week out we could afford. I don’t think anyone believes we’ve come close to that and as it is we are constantly allowing talk of ‘projects’, patience, improvements….which I really don’t like. It smacks of all those failed project manager types that graced the premiership….spurs went through half a dozen of them.

It’s nice to plan long term and develop players but we don’t even trust our B team lads to play in the Micky mouse cup games. That’s where the development should be. Not people we need in the first team week in week out in a season where we have stated our ambition is the top two. I mean it’s not even like Evatt trusts promising youngsters and throws them in. He’s a very conservative manager in that regard. But what matters is building the team here and how to win promotion. One that had the best we can afford and is most effective at winning results week in week out across the entirety of a season which is ultimately what dictates success.

I don’t mind having to be creative and find players from odd places…or make the best of certain skill sets. Because we don’t have millions to throw round. But we’ve spent a fair bit. And signed a lot of degrees of ‘hopefuls’. Players who could really develop into something but right now few are exactly where we need them to be.