Oh to be in Bolton....At Home to Carlisle United , Sat 7th Sept. 3-o'clock.

[officer_dibble]

Feels like we are in that mix of sides who could win/lose against each other on any given day. Roughly similar to last season.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Feels like we are in that mix of sides who could win/lose against each other on any given day. Roughly similar to last season.

Yep, the division is... odd this year. 17 teams within 9pts of each other; you can win or lose 9pts in a week. Carlisle (20th) are as close to the play-offs as they are to the bottom.
.

Screenshot 2023-10-16 at 13.32.17.png (119 KiB) Viewed 9724 times

.
The worry is that the biggest gap is behind the front two. We need to get to the front of the pack and then claw back that gap.

[BWFC_Insane]

Feels like we are in that mix of sides who could win/lose against each other on any given day. Roughly similar to last season.

Yep, the division is... odd this year. 17 teams within 9pts of each other; you can win or lose 9pts in a week. Carlisle (20th) are as close to the play-offs as they are to the bottom.
.
Screenshot 2023-10-16 at 13.32.17.png
.
The worry is that the biggest gap is behind the front two. We need to get to the front of the pack and then claw back that gap.

The top 2 are on the same points as the top 2 were this time last year. As are we. I think the top of the table will look very similar points wise to last season. Very very similar.

[The_Gun]

Are Oxford as good as Plymouth, Ipswich or Wednesday? It doesn't seem that way to me, although of course what's important is how good they are relative to the rest of the teams in the league this season. I certainly wouldn't be confident they'll finish above us, though.

[BWFC_Insane]

Are Oxford as good as Plymouth, Ipswich or Wednesday? It doesn't seem that way to me, although of course what's important is how good they are relative to the rest of the teams in the league this season. I certainly wouldn't be confident they'll finish above us, though.

I mean its possible the start has flattered them. It happens. But people said the same about Plymouth. Some comes down to luck I guess and keeping key players fit for teams like Oxford. We should be more than competitive given resources but thus far in a 'relatively weaker' league we are exactly the same points at this stage as last season. We're all hoping that the top 2 don't get as many as the top 2 did last time of course but the evidence as it stands suggests they may well do and it may even be that Barnsley or one or two others are also right up there to potentially push the total on.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Just from their results, one could argue Oxford look better than Pompey. Oxford have scored more from fewer games; five of their wins have been by 2+ goals, three by 3 goals, whereas since their second-Saturday cakewalk at Orient Pompey have only won two games by 2 goals and none by more. They're also sharing the goals round more – five players with more than one goal, and their leading scorer is LWB Greg Leigh – whereas Pompey are far more reliant on eight-goal Colby Bishop.

Then again, only one team (Barnsley) are outperforming their xG more than Oxford.

It could be that Portsmouth are this season's Plymouth - hey, their names are even similar - and Oxford are the Ipswich. Worth remembering too that Oxford boss Liam Manning has already had a play-off run in this division, whereas Pompey's Mousinho (who, intriguingly, was at Oxford for his last six years) has only managed in this calendar year.

IDK. Not yet convinced that they won't hiccup. But then, Ipswich had a wobble and recovered. Best teams do. And we've shown ourselves very capable of putting a run together, so I live in hope.

[BWFC_Insane]

Just from their results, one could argue Oxford look better than Pompey. Oxford have scored more from fewer games; five of their wins have been by 2+ goals, three by 3 goals, whereas since their second-Saturday cakewalk at Orient Pompey have only won two games by 2 goals and none by more. They're also sharing the goals round more – five players with more than one goal, and their leading scorer is LWB Greg Leigh – whereas Pompey are far more reliant on eight-goal Colby Bishop.

Then again, only one team (Barnsley) are outperforming their xG more than Oxford.

It could be that Portsmouth are this season's Plymouth - hey, their names are even similar - and Oxford are the Ipswich. Worth remembering too that Oxford boss Liam Manning has already had a play-off run in this division, whereas Pompey's Mousinho (who, intriguingly, was at Oxford for his last six years) has only managed in this calendar year.

IDK. Not yet convinced that they won't hiccup. But then, Ipswich had a wobble and recovered. Best teams do. And we've shown ourselves very capable of putting a run together, so I live in hope.

Our best run was 3 wins in a row at the start of the season against teams who probably look among some of the weaker this year.

Automatic promotion runs need 6-7 back to back winning runs, followed by maybe a loss and then back onto another lengthy winning run.

I'd say if I had a concern its that at no point have I felt we've looked like the sort of consistent runs that get you automatic promotion. This season or last. We've always looked like there will be too many little rocky periods that will last just a bit too long each time!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I meant Evatt's teams historically.

2020/21 - WWWWWWDWWW in Feb/Mar
2021/22- WWWWDWW in Jan/Feb
2022/23 - WWWWW in Jan/Feb

I'm not suggesting we wait until 2024 to pop a few greens on the board but I heartily dispute the idea that Evatt's teams can't put a winning run together. Let's just hope we crack on with it.

[Prufrock]

Without points deductions Wigan would be in the pack, and reading not far from it. Which would have the top two and the bottom one, and then everybody else!

We're two points better off than from the same ten fixtures last season. That's 8 points over a season.

We're still at the point were extrapolating is tough beyond the broad and general.

[Mar]

I meant Evatt's teams historically.

2020/21 - WWWWWWDWWW in Feb/Mar
2021/22- WWWWDWW in Jan/Feb
2022/23 - WWWWW in Jan/Feb

I'm not suggesting we wait until 2024 to pop a few greens on the board but I heartily dispute the idea that Evatt's teams can't put a winning run together. Let's just hope we crack on with it.

Our usual problems are pre Christmas, so any significant change in this period is likely what will get us over the line.

As for post Christmas runs, we've not exactly been affected by fa cup disruption. That might possibly be an issue this year

[BWFC_Insane]

I meant Evatt's teams historically.

2020/21 - WWWWWWDWWW in Feb/Mar
2021/22- WWWWDWW in Jan/Feb
2022/23 - WWWWW in Jan/Feb

I'm not suggesting we wait until 2024 to pop a few greens on the board but I heartily dispute the idea that Evatt's teams can't put a winning run together. Let's just hope we crack on with it.

Sure but last season was a nice run but not the sort that will propel you towards the top two and certainly wasn’t enough nor early enough.

21/22 was after a great January. 20/21 was similarly a January that turned round our fortunes.

For me we are already at the extremes of a gap that could be overcome post January, 7/8 points in this league feels like the most you could realistically turn round in the second half of the season given that it’s unlikely that several teams all blow up together and also given the nature of the division and the recent consistency of top sides. Ideally you’d be much closer come January.

We need to show a level of consistency now that is far greater than we’ve shown this season in both result and performances. Teams that win automatic promotion win game week after week without too much fuss, without the idea that they are tired mid week and when they do slip up they are straight back on it. That’s what we need to show now. We simply can’t afford another performed like Carlisle or Wigan or even Stevenage. We need to be on it every game. If we aren’t playing well we need to run more, fight harder and out power the opposition. Because that’s what being top two demands, winning games in different ways, consistently and being able to meet the variety of challenges. What you can’t be is flaky and struggle against certain types of teams.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

21/22 - that run came after four straight losses. So not really "a great January" unless you mean the transfer window, which I'm sure you've previously argued was rubbish. That would, after all, be bang on-brand.

I had a quick look at recent auto promoted clubs' results yesterday and I didn't see a single seven-game winning streak. Most had one of 5 or 6 and no more. But what they had was a lot of mini-runs of 2 or 3 or 4 – and as you said yesterday, if they blipped it was usually only for a game or two.

It's not the long unbroken runs, which tend to gather more attention but also superstition; it's the being more likely to win than not, week in week out. If you stumble, get back up. Don't bang on about the defeat - follow it with a win. Both previous times this season when we've lost a league game, we've drawn the next one; not bad, but not as good as it should be.

The very best sides simply dust themselves down and starty winning again immediately. I'm yet to see us really do that over a period longer than say three months, but I'm also aware that this is a work in progress (hopefully). What doesn't help, one could argue, is panic-fannying... the idea that you can't make up more than 8 points over half a season (23 games, 69pts) sounds to me needlessly pessimistic. (It's also still October.)

For avoidance of doubt, nobody but nobody is saying we're doing as well as we can or even as well as could be expected. So let's not be daft the other way and say that all is lost before the pumpkins are out and the clocks go back.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^21/22 January we added Charles, Fossey, Bod etc…..not sure I would ever have said that was a rubbish window…..

[boltonboris]

You probably did at the time