Whatever floats your boat.. V Oxford United, Tuesday 28th Nov.7-45.

[TANGODANCER]

One game at a time as in two days the Whites leave the University of Bolton behind and punt southwards for the font of all knowledge that is Oxford University.. (How many of their players have ever been there for learning?)

Forget all but winning the next game. Oxford are but three points behind us and won't want to see that increase especially in the "City of Dreaming Spires" their cap and gown home ground. I doubt anybody will expect a seven goal repeat of Saturday, but three points in any fashion has to be our degree. Undergraduates we may well be, but underdogs, never. Seriously, it should be a close call unless Admiral Evatt has a few tricks up his tracksuit sleeve. No real need to change the side except for tiredness/injury etc, but it's just speculation right now. Keep doing the homework and we'll get the Sheila Fergusons..At em...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't quite know how to feel.

I do know that we've spent a lot of the Evatt Era worrying we can be bullied, or thwarted by a low block. Exeter stacked their back five/seven with oxen and stuck another up top, and while it took us half an hour to find a way, we did so on our own terms.

They notably tried to keep us flowing left, presumably figuring Iredale was less of a threat than their old mate Randy, especially when surrounded by the non-left-footed outside centre-back Toal and often the non-left-footed Maghoma. All third-tier managers must also know that our right-side unit is ticking like a techniquey timebomb, with JDC's energy and overlaps creating space for Geth's intelligent probings – and that duo supplemented by a host of players rotating and dropping in. Knowing we can leave Rico 1v1, we quite simply outnumber the opposition with our movement, touch and interplay.

And nowadays, we fully merit the old Paddock chant "once we get one, we'll get more." We can score through interplay, we can score off corners, we can score off through-balls, we can score off scrapping for second balls. And we want to score more. The subs – or rather "finishers", a term derided not long since – have a point to prove and often the ability to prove it. Yesterday we brought on Morley and Bodvarsson; then Dempsey, CMG and Dan. That's not a bad suite of changes. And while the latter two have points to prove, they want to prove them.

And so - on to the next challenges. Evatt has been consistent on not getting carried away, raising the bar. Exeter are not very good. Oxford and Pompey have been much better, and although they have their problems and question marks, they are a sight better than Exeter – and in front of their own fans.

Style-wise, both our rivals are much more like us than (Saturday's) Exeter, but there are a couple of differences. Pompey are a bit quicker to get it forward, but let's leave them aside for now and focus on Oxford. All style suppositions must be caveated by the departure of Manning and arrival of Des Buckingham, who sounds like a 1980s interior decorator, but given his (Man) City Group background I think we can safely assume he's cut from a similar possession-based cloth to his predecessor.

What's interesting to me about Oxford is their standoffishness. They let teams play – at least until the reach the U's defensive third. While we have the division's busiest pressing stats (10.1 PPDA - see below for definition) and Pompey are 4th (11.7), Oxford are fourth-bottom with a meekly permissive 16.3.

(*Brief but hopefully illuminating definition: PPDA is the number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team's own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third. A lower figure indicates a higher level of pressing, while a higher figure indicates a lower level of pressing.)

"What does that mean, DSB?" Well, hopefully it means they will leave Sheehan the f**k alone to do what he does so devastatingly, which is pass the oppo to death. It's possible Buckingham will tweak their usual game to target him – he'll have to change his usual No.10 anyway, as Ruben Rodrigues was sent off yesterday – and it's also true that we have enough rotation and technique to let others pick the passes. But I wouldn't be surprised if we make the breakthrough on Tuesday through a slightly longer ball than the two-dimensional old idea of Evattball might suggest - say a quick ping in transition to JDC, outpacing their overlapping left-back, to cross for Dion to finish.

And then we go again...

[EDIT: I said we had the 'highest' pressing stats - which is morally true but potentially confusing as the lower the number, the harder the pressing]

[DJBlu]

God help the league if this team becomes confident.

[Mar]

Judging from DSB's writing i'm expecting us to face Oxford's low block defence and their ability to counter successfully. Given we've come relatively adept at facing a low block lately, we should be able to make the most of our good form.

Not saying Oxford are going to be push overs, but if they're known for letting teams play, and we've been known for dominating possession, I suspect it'll be difficult for Oxford to make headway.

The only time we've really struggled is against a team that's pressing hard, but recently we've stepped up our ability to match the oppositions effort levels and a bit of trickery from Thomason, Sheehan and Maghoma is making decent headway.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Mar (and others) - dig deeper here if you like https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/leagu ... 23-24-opta

I wouldn't say necessarily that Oxford will sit and defend their 18-yard line; it's just that almost every other team in the division makes a bigger effort to stop their opponents. Whatever they've been doing, it's been working better than most.

[Harry Genshaw]

I was reading some Oxford fans stuff the other day which said they struggled with an aggressive approach. If the opposition let them play they're more confident that they'll score goals from all around the pitch.

2-2

[Mar]

Mar (and others) - dig deeper here if you like https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/leagu ... 23-24-opta

I wouldn't say necessarily that Oxford will sit and defend their 18-yard line; it's just that almost every other team in the division makes a bigger effort to stop their opponents. Whatever they've been doing, it's been working better than most.

Thats interesting, cheers DSB.

The whole zones of control one is interesting and we're the only team in the league that is contesting the amount of play just outside the opposition box. That's an incredible feat to achieve.

[BWFC_Insane]

Obviously it’s a tough game and entirely possible it could end our fabulous run. Equally though we go in full of confidence off the back of a 7-0 win they go into it off the back of a defeat at lowly Cheltenham. We rested some players for some minutes on Saturday so hopefully are relatively fresh.

Every game is its own incident in this division. But if someone offered me a draw now I’d not take it. We can go there and win. We might not but absolutely shouldn’t be settling for a draw given how we are playing.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Mar (and others) - dig deeper here if you like https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/leagu ... 23-24-opta

I wouldn't say necessarily that Oxford will sit and defend their 18-yard line; it's just that almost every other team in the division makes a bigger effort to stop their opponents. Whatever they've been doing, it's been working better than most.

Thats interesting, cheers DSB.

The whole zones of control one is interesting and we're the only team in the league that is contesting the amount of play just outside the opposition box. That's an incredible feat to achieve.

Yeah it’s a good resource for stats. Pity they’ve now hidden previous seasons - I was doing a deep dive into our progression under Evatt - but never mind.

In terms of possession in that “second 18-yard box” - I guess that’s a combo of at least two things: our high press to get the ball, and some teams letting us have it in that zone (defending the last say 25 yards in a low block). We have been accused of passing it sideways in that area…

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Obviously it’s a tough game and entirely possible it could end our fabulous run. Equally though we go in full of confidence off the back of a 7-0 win they go into it off the back of a defeat at lowly Cheltenham. We rested some players for some minutes on Saturday so hopefully are relatively fresh.

Every game is its own incident in this division. But if someone offered me a draw now I’d not take it. We can go there and win. We might not but absolutely shouldn’t be settling for a draw given how we are playing.

Agreed. Depending on events I may settle for a draw on the night but I think we should be going into every single game to win it. Fear nobody.

[TANGODANCER]

Utterly heart-warming is the clubs, players (and supporters) reaction to Dan's little moment of triumph. (Bolton News.) He too seems over the moon with just about everything. A lovely situation to have. Go Dan the Man..

[officer_dibble]

He’s back on the bench Tuesday though - I wonder if Randell Williams will be on instead of Jerome?

Brilliant performance Saturday; hopefully we aren’t now overconfident - feet on the ground and go again tomorrow. Totally agree with the above - we should be going looking for the win.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

He’s back on the bench Tuesday though - I wonder if Randell Williams will be on instead of Jerome?

It's an interesting question. Would be harsh to drop Iredale and perhaps his added defensive nous might be a shout in a tough game against a side that usually plays 4-2-3-1 (although sometimes 3-4-2-1). Randy always an option off the bench (either flank).

If it's Randell on the bench I'd say Jerome should be the most likely to give way. Which would presumably make the subs Bod, Dan, CMG, Dempsey, Morley, Williams, Forrester – although given the game importance (and Iredale's presence as spare centre-back) Coleman might replace Forrester on the bench.

Not to get too far ahead, but there'll be some good underused players itching to prove themselves against Harrogate and Vale in the cup games between Oxford and Pompey...

[Worthy4England]

I don't have a problem with confidence, it's a positive with a bit of a swagger maybe. Over-confidence is the problem. We'd be stupid to take a game against the team in third, with anything other than the respect it deserves, but we should be confident in what we're doing right now.

[DJBlu]

Keep the games coming and ride the wave of confidence.

Fear no one, respect them as opponents but know that we can beat anyone on our day.

We had two 5-0 back to back last season so we're due another 3 goals.

COYWM!!!!

[sonicthewhite]

I've been perusing the Oxford forum and to say they're not overly confident is an understatement.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don't have a problem with confidence, it's a positive with a bit of a swagger maybe. Over-confidence is the problem. We'd be stupid to take a game against the team in third, with anything other than the respect it deserves, but we should be confident in what we're doing right now.

Yep. I doubt Evatt will let over confidence slip in. I think its about the right balance. We should be going to Oxford expecting to put a performance in similar to our recent standards. What that leads to....we'll see on the night.

[dave the minion]

If it's Randell on the bench I'd say Jerome should be the most likely to give way. Which would presumably make the subs Bod, Dan, CMG, Dempsey, Morley, Williams, Forrester – although given the game importance (and Iredale's presence as spare centre-back) Coleman might replace Forrester on the bench.

Given the oft-spoken narrative that we have a thin squad and recruitment has generally been poor - especially in the summer - thats not a bad bunch of players to have warming the bench is it!?!?!?!

[Worthy4England]

If it's Randell on the bench I'd say Jerome should be the most likely to give way. Which would presumably make the subs Bod, Dan, CMG, Dempsey, Morley, Williams, Forrester – although given the game importance (and Iredale's presence as spare centre-back) Coleman might replace Forrester on the bench.

Given the oft-spoken narrative that we have a thin squad and recruitment has generally been poor - especially in the summer - thats not a bad bunch of players to have warming the bench is it!?!?!?!

It's not but some statements are relative to time, it looked a lot thinner with CMG injured, Maghoma not integrated into the team, Bod looking like he was struggling to stand up, Santos carrying a knock etc. There's a couple of positions we clearly could look a whole lot weaker with a couple of injuries...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If it's Randell on the bench I'd say Jerome should be the most likely to give way. Which would presumably make the subs Bod, Dan, CMG, Dempsey, Morley, Williams, Forrester – although given the game importance (and Iredale's presence as spare centre-back) Coleman might replace Forrester on the bench.

Given the oft-spoken narrative that we have a thin squad and recruitment has generally been poor - especially in the summer - thats not a bad bunch of players to have warming the bench is it!?!?!?!

It's not...when everyone is fit. I was as irked as anyone when we didn't recruit a head or two more, late in the window – but I'll hold my hands up and say the gaffer's got it right, on balance.

He said a while ago (I'm paraphrasing) that he didn't want prime pros sat in the stands, and he said last week it's hard to pick the 11 and even harder to pick the 18. If everyone is fit tomorrow then he's only leaving out say Jerome (old enough to understand), Ashworth (young enough to keep plugging away) and Coleman (reserve keeper, tactical choice).

I still think we're a bit thin on wingbacks, so I'd like us to give Matheson some serious minutes vs Harrogate and Vale. And there are still question marks over most of the strikers, but the goodwill levels are rising like a creek in flood. It'd be nice to go into a window without any glaring holes in the XI or the backups – just waiting to see who might become available that would make a huge difference, and could stick around next season...