Who opened the door? My money is on Janus! 2024 January transfer thread.

[sonicthewhite]

Well it's fast approaching that time of year again when the overload of mince pies and turkey butties starts to fade. So as the month is named after the Roman God Janus who was pretty handy with opening doors and new beginnings generally, we can turn our attention to all things transfer related. What do we need I hear you say? That's for you fine gentlemen to gossip about and to calculate exactly what the maestro Evatt will do with the team.

[truewhite15]

Decent loanees to cover the potential/probable absences of CMG, Jones and Iredale. Possibly another striker, possibly another hard-tackling midfielder. But definitely loan cover for our wandering Wanderers.

[Worthy4England]

I think some of the "gaps" which haven't manifested since summer, are still there. Cover for JDC, Randy as out and out WB's. Probably someone up-front. (The thing about "up-front" for League goals, we have Dion chugging along happily on 11, Vic on 6 - next is Oggys, Iredale and Maghoma on 3, Morley, Thommo, Randy on 2, JDC, Demps, Toal, Sheehan, Dan.)

We still have three strikers on 1 league goal between them, two of which will be out of contract in summer...Happy to acknowledge they haven't had much "pitch time" - Dan 392 minutes, JDB 192 and Cameron 124. Question for me is, do we think that will continue, into the second half, or we should jettison 1 or 2 out of contract players...

MF looks like it might have stabilised with Sheehan, Thomason and Maghoma and I think Demps is probably next on the rank, we look a lot more suspect defensively with Aaron - albeit he still has 5 "goal actions", CMG, I genuinely don't think we'll miss during ANC from what he's done in the League so far.

[boltonboris]

I can see us going for somebody who can provide cover at RCB / RWB - Can Forrester do it? Is that enough?

Would also like us to see if there are any striking upgrades out there too. If somebody comes available who is a serious player for the level and can get us over the line, we need to take it. Jerome stays on as coach, Dan maybe leaves on loan if needs be, though he seems a good guy to have around the place

[officer_dibble]

I think Matheson is seen as RWB cover now…shame he was injured last night.

Still would like a striker - upgrade on Victor ideally - if there’s someone we can get now who would work at a league above on the last 6 months of a contract I would be twisting Sharon’s arm for him!

[Worthy4England]

I think the plan for Jerome to go "backroom" was previously articulated, but he hasn't really been in the equation recently anyhow...

Dion looks pretty safe.

So you're still only left with Vic, Bod and Dan if you need to unload one...

[officer_dibble]

Fine by me - all upgradable IMO. Jerome I would pay up if necessary to free up a squad place.

[Prufrock]

I don't think we'll do much. Prem loan cover for centre back (Mbete type, but hopefully more successful!) and then see what is available. Are there any champo level players we think we can get now and bed in with 6 months on content.

Three weeks ago I'd have had a centre forward as a priority, but think Dan and Bod have probably done enough to survive for now, unless a big upgrade was there.

[Worthy4England]

Dan and Bod have bagged against (variously) teams nowhere near the capability of top end of L1. I'm delighted for both, as they're at least getting on the scoresheet. I don't see IE changing his "preferred" front 2 anytime soon, outside of injury, general red zone or maybe the odd game situationally. The question is, whether they add much value on limited play-time coming on as subs - there I'm less sure (still) in a League game...

[TANGODANCER]

Is the Championship really that much better than League One ? If the squad we have now (minus a couple) plays to full potential, can we improve without too much change? Plymouth aren't breaking all the pots so far but Ipswich are right up there, so nothing is crystal clear yet. Personally, I'd like to think we can do well without shedding too many feathers, but it's all very Que Sera at this stage.

As Omar Khayyam say: "It's it's all a game of night and days, where destiny with men for pieces plays'' , but then again, he never played football. We may just attract a few talented stars who don't want a million pounds a week wage....... and King Charles may open Bucks Fizz as a youth club...you just never know..

[TonyDomingos]

Well it's fast approaching that time of year again when the overload of mince pies and turkey butties starts to fade. So as the month is named after the Roman God Janus who was pretty handy with opening doors and new beginnings generally, we can turn our attention to all things transfer related. What do we need I hear you say? That's for you fine gentlemen to gossip about and to calculate exactly what the maestro Evatt will do with the team.

So Janus was good at opening doors, but could he SLAM a window shut?

[sonicthewhite]

Well it's fast approaching that time of year again when the overload of mince pies and turkey butties starts to fade. So as the month is named after the Roman God Janus who was pretty handy with opening doors and new beginnings generally, we can turn our attention to all things transfer related. What do we need I hear you say? That's for you fine gentlemen to gossip about and to calculate exactly what the maestro Evatt will do with the team.

So Janus was good at opening doors, but could he SLAM a window shut?

Probably depended on how big the draught was

[Mar]

I'd hope we don't do too much business in the transfer window. The squad doesn't need overhauling.

If anything I'd be expecting the club to be looking longer term, any young promising players with potential. Matheson fits that criteria quite well.

Presumably there needs to be a succession plan in place for the JDB and Jerome situation. Presumably JDB can do a job should we get promoted, but we'd have to ensure we don't put our eggs in one basket in case there's an injury recurrence.

There's also the locking down of midfield quality. Turning Maghomas loan into a permanent would be decent business but may be too far a stretch, especially so early in the season. I think his contracts up at the end of next season so they may be looking to cash in prior to his value inevitably dropping as his contract expires.

The same can be said for Morleys situation. His contract expires at the end of next season so decisions will need to be made how to act upon that. It doesn't feel like Morley has kicked on like Thomason has and it feels like he's slipping down the pecking order. Presumably adjustments in his family life such as newborns maybe the reason for some disruption and its up to the club to support where possible. He may get some grace if he's keen and willing or the decision may be to sort out alternate arrangements for players job security like we saw with John and Bakayoko.

For me, long term planning for strikers, midfield and wingbacks seem to be the consideration. Jerome possibly taking a coaching role will likely see him needing replacing, I'd be surprised if Carty could make the jump up. Khumbeni looks decent for backup midfield.

We're blessed with a well performing squad. I can see a case where there's no window action in Jan.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Yeah, I think the worry beads from Summer are still there, but fortunately, major problems (such as what happens if JDC or Dion gets injured), haven't transpired thankfully. I wonder if we'd be quite as happy with squad depth, had one or both picked up a "term" knock in September. Life looks a chunk thinner, if you take out an 11 goal striker and replace him with the next leading league scorer. To the point that was raised on a previous thread that not many teams have "cover" for their leading striker - I agree - it's really about whether there's someone who is notionally "third" on the list capable of stepping up to reasonable on goal return given more game time than they've had, without us going to shit.

So we're in a good place and like you, I don't see necessarily a large scale overhaul like we've maybe seen in some previous January's, but as we know, promotions are about run-ins - If you're in/around the automatics in Jan, you probably don't want to look back and wonder what might have been, after a decent start. The teams in the top 3 currently are on the same sort of points tally as last year, so the notion that the overall pace might be lower, doesn't seem to be panning out, so far. (After 18 games last season, only Plymouth would have been in front of us by 3 points on 42, Ipswich 38 and Sheff 37).

I think Aaron's problems are more defensive than attacking and maybe work-rate. When he's on it and going forwards, he still has a few things going for him. Stats-wise, he has the same amount of assists in half the time on the pitch, as Thomo. Only Sheehan has a higher Key Pass number, but, both Sheehan and Thomo are making 40 passes a game, Aaron is around Demps numbers on 25. The defensive side is worse fewer tackles/fewer interceptions than Josh, who's a paper tank! I've not quite given up on him, yet!

[TANGODANCER]

I'd hope we don't do too much business in the transfer window. The squad doesn't need overhauling.
We're blessed with a well performing squad. I can see a case where there's no window action in Jan.

Or maybe action that is instigated by outside interest rather than just ours. We have a few players that must be attracting some attention? "The chances of anyone coming Mr Mars, are a million to one he said" but still they may come.!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Is the Championship really that much better than League One ? If the squad we have now (minus a couple) plays to full potential, can we improve without too much change? Plymouth aren't breaking all the pots so far but Ipswich are right up there, so nothing is crystal clear yet.

Ipswich's success this season with a not dissimilar type of football is heartening for us, as was the success last season of Luton (small budget) and Cov (carefully run). I'm less despondent than I have been about survival (of either kind!) in that division, although I still suspect this season might be more fun. We'll see (hopefully...)

Trouble is, Ipswich spent a lot of money. I know I keep coming back to it, but paying £1m for a 21-year-old left-back was... bold; even if they may now recoup that and more in selling him on, it's not the sort of circle we're operating in.

As various others have noted, we're still slightly thin in a position or two, and it looks like we might get temporarily thinner – if Geth and Iredale are called up for Australia's Asian Cup campaign (and they were scouted as recently as Saturday by Socceroos assistant, ex-Fergie sidekick and fleeting Fulham gaffer Rene Meulensteen), we could lose them for up to six weeks. And they are precisely the sort of players whose positional versatility makes them worth slightly more than one squad slot - they may be primarily centre-backs (so we'd be down to just three players - Santos, Toal, Forrester – for those three places) but they also cover wing-backs, where they're arguably first reserves to JDC and Williams. In other words, if they go, we have no cover for the 'back five' except Matheson and Ashworth.

What's more, that tournament – for which they're 5/1 joint-second favourites – kicks off on January 12 and runs until February 10. So they'd probably be called up very early in the window and I'm fairly sure they'd be gone for all of it. Their last group match is Jan 23 but given they're top seeds and have been drawn with Uzbekistan, Syria and India, I rather suspect they'll manage. If as expected they win the group they'll play a 3rd-place team on Jan 28th; win that and they're in the quarters on Feb 2. There they might face the Saudis (tournament odds 6/1), and after that possibly Japan (3/1 tournament favourites) in the Feb 6 semis.

So yeah - that would be a sizeable hole, but only a temporary one and we know how long it takes incoming players to come up to the standards required (standards which are rising all the time, too). Squads must be named 30 days before each team's opener, which in this case means next Thursday (14th). If both are named, I wonder if Evatt and Markham will peruse their possibilities... possibly bearing in mind that we should be looking to strengthen for next season and beyond. Do we patch up or trade up?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Anyway, here's a potential hide-and-seek game to play.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/details ... e/45775285
Transfermarkt allows you to search for players by a number of criteria. Here (∆) I've chosen those Championship players whose contracts expire in 2024 – and there are more than 250, the maximum amount it will return. But underneath, you can sub-divide by your chosen metric: position? height? age? there are, for example, only 183 returns if you exclude those aged 31+.

So what? Well, I suspect we might once again find our January business includes fringe players on dwindling contracts. In January 2021 it was Dec and MJ; in 2022, Dion, Bod and Sadlier (plus Morley and Dempsey, sold by their clubs before they walked for nothing); last time, Randell and I suppose Jerome. As we seek players comfortable at the next level but available without breaking the bank, I think we'll be returning to that market – albeit perhaps with slightly less urgency than in some previous campaigns.

Note that the results might also return lapsing loanees to the Championship whose parent-club contract lasts beyond next summer – but those, too, might be interesting for us next season...

So who should/could/might we go for?

(You could also change the search to look at League One players on lapsing contracts who we might believe could make the step up - call it the Moxon Metric)

[sonicthewhite]

Here's a thought, would we still be interested in Moxon if we gain promotion?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Here's a thought, would we still be interested in Moxon if we gain promotion?

That has surely had to be a thought for each of the last three windows – we've made no bones about our intended direction of travel. Anyone we hire now should be seen as suitable to step up (with the possible exception of a six-month loanee to boost numbers in this season's second half).

I don't know how real the Moxon rumours were, and it's not like he's torn the division apart – but then, Dempsey and Morley played for struggling drop-dodgers (arguably Dion too although Accy were slightly more confortable) so it's often the old thing about if they'll play better in a better team. Ceilings, dear boy.

[Worthy4England]

Ceilings, dear boy.

Artex. You know where you stand with Artex. Non of this fancy-Dan new bollocks.