Race to the tape: 2024's League One promotion campaign

[officer_dibble]

If the players can stop this being another Chelsea, Leicester, Birmingham, Wolves…that would be nice.

[TANGODANCER]

The word "easy" shouldn't even be in our vocabulary. Hard is the only way forth. Carlisle can play like Brazil with nothing to lose. Beating Bolton is a big feather in caps. "Ride boldly ride, the Shade replied, "if you seek Eldorado"..

[bw@bw]

Going into the playoffs in really good form is crucial.

In which case Lincoln are clear favourites.
If I have done the sums right they have 35 points out of the last 39
And scored 33 goals in that time

Their last league match is home against Pompey.
Lets hope Pompey still have something to play for

[DJBlu]

What would be amusing would be a Derby draw or loss and us beating Portsmouth on Saturday which in turn causes them to lose their last games.

Imagine.

[The_Gun]

Going into the playoffs in really good form is crucial.

In which case Lincoln are clear favourites.
If I have done the sums right they have 35 points out of the last 39
And scored 33 goals in that time

Their last league match is home against Pompey.
Lets hope Pompey still have something to play for

Lincoln aren't in the playoff positions currently, so they absolutely aren't clear favourites.

[Mar]

Going into the playoffs in really good form is crucial.

In which case Lincoln are clear favourites.
If I have done the sums right they have 35 points out of the last 39
And scored 33 goals in that time

Their last league match is home against Pompey.
Lets hope Pompey still have something to play for

Lincoln aren't in the playoff positions currently, so they absolutely aren't clear favourites.

Form is a good indicator, but I would suspect Lincoln's form to be hard to maintain given that they've pushed and pushed to get to where they are. They may end up dipping in form as they reach the final weeks of the season, almost as if they've sprinted to the finish line to early and possibly ran out of energy.

Now they're at the point they wanted to reach, chance of playoffs, that may add to the mental strain, now the pressure is on, rather than them being considered outsiders.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Lincoln haven't lost a league game since New Year's Day – W10 D6, including winning 5 of the last 6. They're now just 2pts behind Oxford, whom they visit on Tuesday. In the last 16 Oxford are W5 D6 L5 - although they have won their last two games 4-0 (albeit against two teams in the drop zone).

I would be happier facing Oxford than Lincoln. Oxford now have three home games on the bounce – but against Posh, Lincoln and Stevenage (they finish at Exeter). So they'll either earn their play-off spot or they won't get one.

[irie Cee Bee]

Winning all our remaining games is easy to say, but based on our recent form, is also highly unlikely. The good thing is that 75% of our remaining games are at home where we are stronger. Fingers crossed hoping that we will improve our form and win them all plus the playoffs.

Evatt need to motivate players, work out a good plan, and not harp on injuries and potential injuries (now he is fretting on Sheehan and Santos). We have a capable squad. Lets get on with it. I like Taylor, he is a good player and passer of the football from what I see. He can come in for Santos if necessary. Santos hasn't been at his best recently. Morely or Dempsey for Sheehan and we go more direct without the Quarter Back. Lets just get on with it, be mentally strong, and win everything.

[The_Gun]

Santos we're maybe equipped to deal without by shifting Toal into the middle, playing Jones or Forrester on the right and Iredale on the left. Taylor looks a promising player, but I'd be reluctant to chuck him in now off the back of an injury, and having only played 190 total minutes for us.

Sheehan I really don't think we're well equipped to deal without. There's no one else in the squad who can play that deep lying role very effectively, and Josh has probably been our player of the season thus far. I'd be extremely worried about our promotion chances if he's going to miss significant time.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Santos we're maybe equipped to deal without by shifting Toal into the middle, playing Jones or Forrester on the right and Iredale on the left. Taylor looks a promising player, but I'd be reluctant to chuck him in now off the back of an injury, and having only played 190 total minutes for us.

Sheehan I really don't think we're well equipped to deal without. There's no one else in the squad who can play that deep lying role very effectively, and Josh has probably been our player of the season thus far. I'd be extremely worried about our promotion chances if he's going to miss significant time.

I agree with huge swathes of this. No disrespect to Caleb Taylor, who is already a good player and is potentially a very good one, but I too would promote Forrester or Jones (depending on fitness and oppo) and switch Toal centrally. I still think we'd miss Rico, but that's what I'd do.

Sheehan is, as you say, a different case: so very calm and cool and always, always wanting the ball - vital in our system. Morley is the best like-for-like but has faded from the picture. I'm intrigued by the thought of playing Thomason at 6 with Dempsey reinstated. However, Tomo is a magnet for yellow cards – and whichever of the young Lancastrians plays there, I will be nightmarishly visualising a pass being intercepted a la Barnsley.

[officer_dibble]

Hundred percent agree - Taylor looked half fit when he wasn’t injured, cramp after about an hour! Looked a good player but he’s not helped us much. I’m happy for Toal to be moved inside and Forester to play - if we don’t go up Santos might fancy a crack at championship anyway so it might be a good test…

[The_Gun]

Barnsley losing to Stevenage. If it stays that way you’d think Posh would be the only side that could realistically catch up with us.

[knobpolisher]

Yep you would say that 4th is now our worst possible finishing position which should we not go up automatically would give us a second leg home fixture in the play offs.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Barnsley losing to Stevenage. If it stays that way you’d think Posh would be the only side that could realistically catch up with us.

It has stayed that way. Barnsley fans laughed when we celebrated what they called "winning the league" at theirs, but since then they've gone LWDLWLL (and the two wins were vs bottom-four teams). They've properly stacked it.

Blackpool edge out Fleetwood in the Fleaside Derby to stay in touch, but like Stevenage they'd need both Oxford and Lincoln to fall apart, really.

Screenshot 2024-04-09 at 21.50.44.png (64.93 KiB) Viewed 538 times

[jmjhb]

I'd say anyone below Peterborough are now irrelevant in a sense; Barnsley will do well not to fall out the playoffs at this rate.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'd say anyone below Peterborough are now irrelevant in a sense; Barnsley will do well not to fall out the playoffs at this rate.

Aye. When my phone pinged with a Barnsley score update, I completely forgot they were playing and wasn't too arsed that they were winning - which, typically enough, didn't last long.

Even so, I'll hope they stay in - perhaps to play us in the semis by finishing 6th, but it would be funny if they stayed 5th and beat Peterborough in the semis. Remember that Posh have the sweat-soaked, awakening-bolt-upright nightmare of last season's playoffs to get over; it's very far from fantastical to think they might falter again.

[Prufrock]

If it's playoffs, looks like a home second leg. And posh are the only team I'd worry about at Wembley given how nuts they are, beyond a "chance is a big thing and anytime can beat anyone sense".

[officer_dibble]

Lincoln are a bit of a wildcard - we haven’t played them since they got good!

[The_Gun]

On paper there's not too much to give you encouragement regarding Wycombe's prospects tonight. They have nothing to play for, are coming off the back of a Wembley defeat on Sunday, which in addition to the disappointment also means they'll be significantly less well rested than Derby, and their home record is not stellar.

However, at our level, where players are not generally multi-millionaires and contracts are shorter and harder to come by than at the top, there is always going to be plenty of personal motivation for individual players. Lot's of the Wycombe lads will want to put in good displays, especially against the big sides, in this end of season period as it could be the difference between them getting a new deal or not, or playing in Div 3 or Div 4 next season.

I'm still anticipating Derby grinding out a 0-1, but the Rams are no world-beaters, so I'm holding out some hope that the hosts tonight might be able to frustrate them and take at least a share of the spoils.

[dave the minion]

Aye. Look at Carlisle last night: dead and buried in the league, but pulled off a 1-0 win against Cheltenham - players playing for their positions/contracts next season.

I have a good feeling in my ageing bones about this week. We're due a bit of good fortune, so I can see a dour 0-0 tonight and an even dourer 1-0 win to us on Saturday....

Bring it on