Race to the tape: 2024's League One promotion campaign

[Worthy4England]

There are a number of calculator(s) to put your own scores in, but with so many games left, it feels like heavy lifting at this point.

https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=3

[TonyDomingos]

What's sex?

[knobpolisher]

Looking at the table as it stands today we have 16 games left . Realistically we could afford to lose 6 and win 10 which would give us 92 points. At our current ppg we would get to 94 points, dig in lads.
Surely thats enough !

[officer_dibble]

We’ll probably draw a couple, so then you get into losing 4 I think. Draws against Peterborough, Blackpool, Wigan(?) may be the ones to target. Win your home games.

[TANGODANCER]

Let's win em all. No reason why not; we're currently winning while not playing at our best, so if we get it together we can do it. Think positive. Thomason is a real blow, but if we get over our injuries, who knows?

[bw@bw]

Looking at the table as it stands today we have 16 games left . Realistically we could afford to lose 6 and win 10 which would give us 92 points. At our current ppg we would get to 94 points, dig in lads.
Surely thats enough !

You would hope so

But Last year Sheff Wed got 96 points and were only 3rd

so we just need to keep winning

[Worthy4England]

^^ Sorta don't matter. All relative from here...As you say. Keep winning.

[DJBlu]

16 cup finals boys and girls. Strap in as it's going to get turbulent.

[TANGODANCER]

16 cup finals boys and girls. Strap in as it's going to get turbulent.

And the most important one is always the next one, then the next one, then,,,,,,ONE DAY AT A TIME hey, because others think exactly the same as we do. . What we do is right, we just need to do it a little bit better. Patience be my friend!

[officer_dibble]

Derby sign Dwight Gayle, that’s them twisting then I guess.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Derby sign Dwight Gayle, that’s them twisting then I guess.

Christ they are absolutely throwing money at this

If we knock them down into the playoffs I might feel almost guilty cos if they don’t go up they might go pop

*Almost* guilty

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Last midweek, Peterborough won their Sherpa Van Trophy semi-final; last night, Wycombe won theirs. Wycombe's scheduled opponents on the weekend of what I am as a journalist morally obliged to call The Wembley Showpiece were Derby - so one of our big promotion rivals will now face a weekend off (April 6) and a midweek catchup.

It's possible they could bring it forward to Tue 5 March, when neither team currently has a game. That would mean Wycombe host Barnsley then Derby and we can all become Sadlier fans again.

Here's an update on the top 3's fixtures to the next international break, by which point we're (currently) set to realign on the same number of games played (39).
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Screenshot 2024-02-22 at 10.44.54.png (62.59 KiB) Viewed 611 times

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At that break (Mar 23rd) I'm expecting Pompey-Barnsley, Northampton-Derby and Bolton-Shrewsbury to all be postponed for call-ups. It's Easter the following weekend but none of the top 3 have any midweek games scheduled in April. Barnsley are at Stevenage on Tue 9th so Pompey-Barnsley is likely to be shunted to the 16th or even 23rd (the final midweek). We could choose to reschedule our home game against Shrewsbury to either the 9th or the 16th, and guess who we play at home on the 13th? Pompey... so we could play first, hoping to win and crank up the pressure, or spend the week on the training ground.

[Spartan2]

5 aways in the next 7, including Derby, Wigan and Barnsley, urgghh that's tough. Time for some big performances.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don’t think it’s too crazy to suggest that the next 5 will probably be key in deciding our fate and we get a massive clue from the next two games.

We are now at the point where whilst we won’t need to win every game to finish in the top two it’s not going to be massively far from that either. So every game now is must win category because we simply don’t know whether there is much more margin for error.

Next two will probably be instructive as to how we will cope.

[officer_dibble]

Next two, 4 points is probably par. Two wins would buy us a draw elsewhere. We have to win at Blackpool at some point….???

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Next two, 4 points is probably par. Two wins would buy us a draw elsewhere. We have to win at Blackpool at some point….???

They said the same about Cambridge...

2ppg over that list would leave us on 80pts with 7 games to go. It's big ask but the big guns are returning.

What we've got to try to do is dispatch the "lesser" opponents with maximum efficiency. Cambridge at home three days before we go to Barnsley - we'll want an early goal or two. Those last three look tough - long trip to Exeter on the Saturday, then home to Oxford - not what they were, but still in the playoff shakeup - and then a trip to Derby. Fingernails and worry-beads that week.

[Worthy4England]

You're going to get big asks at the top end of the Division. It really comes with the territory. I'll want an early goal or two in all of 'em TBF.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if one team in the mix (at least) didn't get the "we're going up" bonus, when you go on a roll and play with swagger and everything that bounces off your ass goes in. It would be decent if we could make that us.

[BWFC_Insane]

Got to say, run in or not I’m looking at the fixture list and I’m struggling to see the 10 wins we probably need to have a chance of top 2 in that lot.

Home we have Cambridge, Oxford, Reading, Shrewsbury, Portsmouth and Port Vale.

Now we will absolutely HAVE to win all those bar maybe Pompey where we could maybe settle for a draw. So that’s 5 of the wins.

Away we have Wigan, Barnsley, Exeter, Derby, Stevenage, Bristol Rovers, Peterborough.

Wigan, Exeter and Bristol Rovers all must wins if we have any chance. Then try and find two out of rest to win. Barnsley, Stevenage, Derby and Posh - struggling to see two out of those tbh.

But I think it’s clear we’ve absolutely run out of any margin now. We ain’t beating all those teams at the top end away from home so the rest of the games we can’t afford to draw or lose any of them.

[officer_dibble]

I’m struggling - when did we last win a game that’s tough on paper / against a form or team where you think before that a points ok? Derby at home? There’s several games that will require us to dig in to get a result and we’re running out of games where a point will do. We have the worst run in. Maybe third is an artificial league position.

[BWFC_Insane]

I’m struggling - when did we last win a game that’s tough on paper / against a form or team where you think before that a points ok? Derby at home? There’s several games that will require us to dig in to get a result and we’re running out of games where a point will do. We have the worst run in. Maybe third is an artificial league position.

Yep. I think this is it. We haven’t made a habit of winning the biggest games against good teams or the toughest of aways against local rivals. Now we need to win a bunch of them.