A Load of Cobblers. Away to Northampton Sat, 10th Feb.3-0'clock.

[TANGODANCER]

Just to keep everybody happy in this spell of footy absence, can we give a clogging to the Shoe Boys? Eight places and eighteen points separate us from Northampton, so effectively we have to look at taking three points home from this. Barring another "Rain stopped play", more conversant with cricket than football, we should be fine. Nothing to stop this thread from running alongside the general league one, so go at it.

[Mar]

They're comfortably midtable but are probably on the verge of feeling like season over so it's debatable as to what sort of performance they'll be likely to put in. No resting on laurels just yet.

This should be a game we win from doing a professional job. It's football though so anything can happen.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Funny old season for a funny old club.

Ever since joining the newly-incorporated Third Division (South) in 1920 they've pretty much always been lower-league stalwarts - barring a notable, remarkable and literally execeptional 1960s dash from the Fourth Division to the First (three promotions in five seasons) and back again (three relegations in four).

Since then they've largely shied away from finishing above mid-table in the the third tier, and have often bounced between the bottom two - six promotions and five subsequent relegations since 1996, including three ups and two downs since 2016 – that particular triumph under an emerging Chris Wilder.

The pattern has continued under their current boss, Jon Brady. Who he? Fair question. An Aussie who played nearly 300 Conference games for various sides, he went into Noethampton's youth setup and took over aged 46 in early 2021. He couldn't stop them being relegated that year, and the following year Northampton were denied automatic promotion by Bristol Rovers hammering Scunthorpe 7-0 (two from Aaron Collins) before flopping in the playoffs. Came up last year instead, in third place.

This season's been down and up, too. Nine losses in their first 15, culminating in a 4-0 slapping at Derby, left them only above the relegation zone on goal difference – but 7 wins in the next 10 moved them up to 9th and earned Brady a renewed contract. Five of those wins were at home. They've slipped a bit since to 11th, but you get the feeling that would be fine.

And they do seem to have a ceiling. In eight games against the current top six they've lost seven – including solid defeats to Pompey (3-0 and last Saturday's 4-1), Derby (4-0) and Stevenage (3-0) - so it seems like an early Wanderers goal *should* see us assume control. The one exception to their losses against the division's bigger boys was amusing for us: in the last minute of the Nene derby at home to Peterborough, Mitch Pinnock's hit-and-hope 35-yard whack goalwards was bundled over his own line by keeper Nicholas Bilakopic. See 1'49" below for a chuckle.



Pinnock punts aside, their lead scorer is, for the fourth consecutive season, Sam Hoskins - with whom we were once linked. Since 2021/22 he's bagged 13, 22 and 14-so-far... but he went off at Pompey last weekend with a hamstring injury so let's see if he appears.

For that game, Brady tried a back three which clearly didn't work. He has usually preferred a back four, although he has switched quite often between a back three and back four.

Although they've scored 8 goals from set pieces, they're very far from reliant on them. Indeed, they have the division's lowest ratio of xG from set pieces compared to the total (we're third-lowest, and have scored 10 that way - only six teams have scored more thusly). On the flip, we have the highest ratio of xG conceded from set plays to the total, so they might work on something.

Style-wise they're pretty typical for the division – neither savagely vertical nor simperingly horizontal and averaging a very typical number of passes per move. They're lower mid-table for the PPDA pressing statistic that we easily top – but they've picked their moments wisely: their high-turnover total of 204 is just one fewer than us, and those turnovers have ended in 35 shots compared to our 28, although we'e bagged 5 goals from such steals compared to their 4.

They haven't played at the county cricket ground since 1994 but Sixfields is a bit odd in itself. Built on a former tip prone to subsidence, it's loomed over by a 400ft concrete lift-testing tower, and since 2014 it's had a half-finished East Stand (to the visitors' right). It will always remind me of my utter confidence, during Parky's first season, that once we scored we'd win. The same should apply this weekend, really. Certainly bigger tasks await, but this will require a professional tidy-up job.

[Harry Genshaw]

Interesting stuff DSB. Along with Rochdale they used to form the answer to the footy trivia question - Who are the only teams, since the advent of the Premier league, to have played all their football in what were divisions 3 & 4? Dale's demise means they're now unique.

[Worthy4England]

A grand read, DSB. Thanks.

[TANGODANCER]

Good stuff D.S.B And meanwhile, in Farnworth, it's snowing...

[boltonboris]

Wife and Daughter are going to this one. Our families record for longer distance away games is absolutely horrific.

Portsmouth, Plymouth (last season), Reading, Forest Green (last season) Leyton Orient, MK Dons when we lost 2-0(?) season before last, to name but a few

I apologise in advance

[TANGODANCER]

Ben keeping an eye on the weather forecast over there in Sixfields. Don't look too promising. Is it a ground likely to be like Cambridge? Here's hoping not..

Bit of good news:Big Ric is back in training this next week. B.E.N.

[jmjhb]

According to their local press, their top scorer Hoskins is out for up to a month.

[TANGODANCER]

According to their local press, their top scorer Hoskins is out for up to a month.

Just as long as we score one more than them, that will do, preferably with us keeping a clean sheet. We've managed over injuries, internationals and January and come out okay. Bring em on...

[dave the minion]

Just as long as we score one more than them, that will do, preferably with us keeping a clean sheet. We've managed over injuries, internationals and January and come out okay. Bring em on...

Be nice to not only keep a clean sheet, but to avoid Baxter having to make a save, so he keeps his wrist wrapped in cotton wool....

[DJBlu]

Just as long as we score one more than them, that will do, preferably with us keeping a clean sheet. We've managed over injuries, internationals and January and come out okay. Bring em on...

Be nice to not only keep a clean sheet, but to avoid Baxter having to make a save, so he keeps his wrist wrapped in cotton wool....

The avatar is superb Dave.

[dave the minion]

I thank you. Courtesy of a free online AI image generator. Couldn't get it to be wearing a Bolton kit sadly, but thought that would do.....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Be nice to not only keep a clean sheet, but to avoid Baxter having to make a save, so he keeps his wrist wrapped in cotton wool....

Evatt: “Nathan’s wrist has settled really well, the swelling has more or less completely gone now, and he is fit to play."

[Worthy4England]

Shouldn't take long for a wrist injury to ba back at match fit.

[TonyDomingos]

Funny old season for a funny old club.

Ever since joining the newly-incorporated Third Division (South) in 1920 they've pretty much always been lower-league stalwarts - barring a notable, remarkable and literally execeptional 1960s dash from the Fourth Division to the First (three promotions in five seasons) and back again (three relegations in four).

Since then they've largely shied away from finishing above mid-table in the the third tier, and have often bounced between the bottom two - six promotions and five subsequent relegations since 1996, including three ups and two downs since 2016 – that particular triumph under an emerging Chris Wilder.

The pattern has continued under their current boss, Jon Brady. Who he? Fair question. An Aussie who played nearly 300 Conference games for various sides, he went into Noethampton's youth setup and took over aged 46 in early 2021. He couldn't stop them being relegated that year, and the following year Northampton were denied automatic promotion by Bristol Rovers hammering Scunthorpe 7-0 (two from Aaron Collins) before flopping in the playoffs. Came up last year instead, in third place.

This season's been down and up, too. Nine losses in their first 15, culminating in a 4-0 slapping at Derby, left them only above the relegation zone on goal difference – but 7 wins in the next 10 moved them up to 9th and earned Brady a renewed contract. Five of those wins were at home. They've slipped a bit since to 11th, but you get the feeling that would be fine.

And they do seem to have a ceiling. In eight games against the current top six they've lost seven – including solid defeats to Pompey (3-0 and last Saturday's 4-1), Derby (4-0) and Stevenage (3-0) - so it seems like an early Wanderers goal *should* see us assume control. The one exception to their losses against the division's bigger boys was amusing for us: in the last minute of the Nene derby at home to Peterborough, Mitch Pinnock's hit-and-hope 35-yard whack goalwards was bundled over his own line by keeper Nicholas Bilakopic. See 1'49" below for a chuckle.



Pinnock punts aside, their lead scorer is, for the fourth consecutive season, Sam Hoskins - with whom we were once linked. Since 2021/22 he's bagged 13, 22 and 14-so-far... but he went off at Pompey last weekend with a hamstring injury so let's see if he appears.

For that game, Brady tried a back three which clearly didn't work. He has usually preferred a back four, although he has switched quite often between a back three and back four.

Although they've scored 8 goals from set pieces, they're very far from reliant on them. Indeed, they have the division's lowest ratio of xG from set pieces compared to the total (we're third-lowest, and have scored 10 that way - only six teams have scored more thusly). On the flip, we have the highest ratio of xG conceded from set plays to the total, so they might work on something.

Style-wise they're pretty typical for the division – neither savagely vertical nor simperingly horizontal and averaging a very typical number of passes per move. They're lower mid-table for the PPDA pressing statistic that we easily top – but they've picked their moments wisely: their high-turnover total of 204 is just one fewer than us, and those turnovers have ended in 35 shots compared to our 28, although we'e bagged 5 goals from such steals compared to their 4.

They haven't played at the county cricket ground since 1994 but Sixfields is a bit odd in itself. Built on a former tip prone to subsidence, it's loomed over by a 400ft concrete lift-testing tower, and since 2014 it's had a half-finished East Stand (to the visitors' right). It will always remind me of my utter confidence, during Parky's first season, that once we scored we'd win. The same should apply this weekend, really. Certainly bigger tasks await, but this will require a professional tidy-up job.

TL;DR we'll shit 'em.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I barely mentioned Bolton

Evatt has said that he already had a team for this game in mind when he picked Tuesday's squad, and hinted that the postponement will probably not change those plans. Worth reiterating that Tuesday's 18 excluded 4 players who might have been expected to be in contention: Bodvarsson, Ashworth, Ramsay and Forrester.

Clearly Forrester isn't quite back from injury and that's OK; with Gethin back in Tuesday's XI, Jack Iredale dropped to the bench. It's possible that Jack's extra flexibility as a wingback will see him preferred over Forrester, who so far seems to be solely an outside centre-back, although he's arguably better cover for RCB than Jack. When Rico returns (not yet; from Evatt's chat, maybe next weekend or the midweek after) then that choice gets even harder; assuming the skipper and his newly-Aussie sidekick are in, does Toal play LCB with Caleb Taylor dropping to the bench? As usual, might depend on the fixture. For today, I'd expect the same Geth-Taylor-Toal lineup, unless we suspect we'd prefer Jack's Toal-trumping ability going forward.

The wingbacks will be interesting. Ashworth and Ramsay were rested for being in the red zone; did Ogbeta miss a big chance, through no fault of his own? Might Ramsay have today replaced JDC, who now probably doesn't need a rest? Personally I would like to see both Ogbeta and Ramsay get some serious minutes in the next two or three games, so we have genuine choice down the flanks, and I would like us to be more regularly substituting the wingbacks, to keep them fresh and ask the oppos different questions.

Speaking of missing a big chance, Morley was picked in Tuesday's midfield three alongside his fellow young Lancstrian Tomo with Sheehan behind them. According to my notes that's the first time that trio's started a league game since October's win at Charlton, when Demps was out and Maghoma not yet fully settled. Mozzer needed a start to show his capabilities, but will one of those two "free 8s" replace him today?

And then there's up top. It's not impossible that Tuesday was a last look at the Dion-Vic starting partnership before trying a different starting combo - we can't keep Collins on the bench forever.

One thing that is likely to happen is Coleman on the bench – firstly until Baxter's totally over his injury but then, I'm sensing from Evatt's quotes, more often than in recent seasons as the risk/reward balance titlts. That it has done so when we have Evatt's strongest ever squad means the manager has some difficult decisions and his choices will be pored over and discussed - but given the circumstances he wouldn't want it any other way...

[Worthy4England]

Obvs. Job #1 = 3 points. An area we could consider more is maybe the timing and ordering of subs. We've been a bit formulaic (Not a criticism, it's served us well overall) in that 70-75 we haul off one or both forwards and maybe 80-85 rest WBs. What might help a little to get some more game time is if we look on top and the board is in our favour, maybe go a little earlier with the subs, without necessarily throwing the whole plan out.

At 80-85 minutes, you're maybe rotating to eat up some minutes or hoping someone changes the result, IMO.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Obvs. Job #1 = 3 points. An area we could consider more is maybe the timing and ordering of subs. We've been a bit formulaic (Not a criticism, it's served us well overall) in that 70-75 we haul off one or both forwards and maybe 80-85 rest WBs. What might help a little to get some more game time is if we look on top and the board is in our favour, maybe go a little earlier with the subs, without necessarily throwing the whole plan out.

At 80-85 minutes, you're maybe rotating to eat up some minutes or hoping someone changes the result, IMO.

Agree. I'd be looking at making up to four changes (both strikers, both wingbacks) in that 60-70 zone and leaving one for later (but not much later) just in case - possibly an 8 (CMG?), or whatever we need.

Obviously plans can change and we should respond to events rather than Sticking To A Plan but yeah, we have a strong squad and we should be using it. I want people coming off after an hour thinking "but I wanted to carry on!" and thus being determined to make the best of their next chance.

[The_Gun]

A few weeks back I could pick our starting XI with like 90% confidence, but now I have no clue. A sign of some strong recruitment and a less clearly defined pecking order in a few positions.

Similar to DSB, I’d also like to see some more of the new boys at wing back, but it feels a little harsh on JDC and especially Ashworth, who have done very little wrong. I think I’d be minded to start with Zac on the left as a reward for his good form.

At the back there’s certainly an argument to bring Iredale in, but I’d probably stick with Toal, Taylor and Jones.

Dempsey, Sheehan and Thomason would be our best midfield three at the moment for me. Maghoma perhaps flattering to deceive of late.

I guess Dion and Collins would be our most talented forwards, but on form I think Vic deserves to retain his place over Charles, so I’d give a Vic and Collins partnership a whirl.

Whatever lineup Evatt plumps for I’m feeling dangerously optimistic about today’s game.

1-3 Bolton