Cam on, fear the noise: Cambridge (H) Sat 2 Mar 3pm

[Prufrock]

It's also just not true. We had basically the same conversation last year. It's one of those biases (like DSB's imagine you were watching a game as a fan of the other team, how would you think it was going?)

The better teams are better, so results are naturally mixed. Everyone in those groups is used to winning most of the time, so they remember those games they naturally don't win, and they stand out - "we're terrible against the top teams" - without remembering everyone thinks that, because everyone takes points off each other.

It's also pretty similar to last year in that there is one stand out team. Last year Plymouth's results against the rest of the top 4/6 were freakishly good, Pompey's aren't quite as stellar, but they still comfortably top both the Top 4 and 6 PPG table. That's largely due to a 100% home record against other high-fliers (and Barnsley and Derby both have to go there) which is tempered by them having won 1/3 away v Top 6 (and they have to come to us).

Next on both the Top 4 and Top 6 PPG table is.... Bolton Wanderers. We have more points per game than Barnsley and Derby v the rest of the Top 4, and than both as well as P'Boro and Stevenage v Top 6. Though it's tight, and we have a lot of aways. We're certainly not particularly bad, though.

Now it's pretty tight v Top 4, and v Top 6 skewed by having played 5/6 at home, but we're still 2nd.

A lot will depend on the games still to come v Top 6 - but it simply isn't true that we are any worse than the rest, and so far we've been slightly better (bar Pompey). Of course if you assume we'll lose all of our remaining games, things look worse, but that's kind of self-evident.

Top 4
-------------Pts (Games)-----PPG (Rank)-------Games Left
Pompey-----7 (3)--------------2.33 (1)-----------3
Derby-------4(4)---------------1 (=3)-------------2
Bolton-------4 (3)-------------1.33 (2)-----------3
Barnsley-----4(4)--------------1 (=3)-------------2

Top 6

--------------Pts--------------PPG (Rank)---Games Left
Pompey----14 (6)-----------2.33 (1)------------ 4
Derby------10 (8)-----------1.25 (4)-------------2
Bolton------8 (5)------------1.6 (2)--------------5
Barnsley---8 (7)------------1.14 (5)-------------3
P'Boro------9 (7)------------1.29 (3)-------------3
Stevenage-5 (7)-------------0.71 (6)------------3

[BWFC_Insane]

I think it’s a fair question to ask why Portsmouth are doing so much better in these games than us? I don’t believe they have better players. They’ve also been plagued with injuries.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

It's also just not true. We had basically the same conversation last year. It's one of those biases (like DSB's imagine you were watching a game as a fan of the other team, how would you think it was going?)
[...much detailed research studiously ignored]

Yeah but you can prove anything with facts, Pru. The real true fact is that we always bottle in the big games – as I remember saying on the way back from Wembley to my friend the six-foot rabbit.

[dave the minion]

I think it’s a fair question to ask why Portsmouth are doing so much better in these games than us? I don’t believe they have better players. They’ve also been plagued with injuries.

Equally as fair to ask why Derby & Barnsley et al are NOT doing so much better in these games than us. And they've not been plagued with injuries

[BWFC_Insane]

I think it’s a fair question to ask why Portsmouth are doing so much better in these games than us? I don’t believe they have better players. They’ve also been plagued with injuries.

Equally as fair to ask why Derby & Barnsley et al are NOT doing so much better in these games than us. And they've not been plagued with injuries

I mean derby have been. But if we keep that fact and keep those two teams below us in this table we will go up.

But that’s the thing isn’t it. If not then we will be looking at these games against the top 6 and a record that sits below the promoted teams and asking why we struggle in those games and Portsmouth or Plymouth didn’t for example?

[Prufrock]

I suspect it's one of both of:

1) Like Plymouth, they are the best team. You're entitled to think they don't have better players, but if they keep up their current ppg against the top 6 I'm pretty confident they'll go up as champions, deservedly so, and that's pretty good evidence as to how good their players are. They are also unbeaten against the rest of the top 4 (and I think, but would have to check) the top 6.

2) their home form so far has been exceptional (as was Plymouth's), but they still have Barnsley and Derby to visit. So that's still a question (are they excellent at home, or is their top 6 form padded but winning the home games against us, P'Boro and Stevenage).

[BWFC_Insane]

I suspect it's one of both of:

1) Like Plymouth, they are the best team. You're entitled to think they don't have better players, but if they keep up their current ppg against the top 6 I'm pretty confident they'll go up as champions, deservedly so, and that's pretty good evidence as to how good their players are. They are also unbeaten against the rest of the top 4 (and I think, but would have to check) the top 6.

2) their home form so far has been exceptional (as was Plymouth's), but they still have Barnsley and Derby to visit. So that's still a question (are they excellent at home, or is their top 6 form padded but winning the home games against us, P'Boro and Stevenage).

Are they the best set of players or are they better managed and coached to play football more effectively than we are?

[TANGODANCER]

Best to see this one as no more or less important than the rest. We need to win them all, so regard them all the same as regards effort and attitude.

[truewhite15]

I suspect it's one of both of:

1) Like Plymouth, they are the best team. You're entitled to think they don't have better players, but if they keep up their current ppg against the top 6 I'm pretty confident they'll go up as champions, deservedly so, and that's pretty good evidence as to how good their players are. They are also unbeaten against the rest of the top 4 (and I think, but would have to check) the top 6.

2) their home form so far has been exceptional (as was Plymouth's), but they still have Barnsley and Derby to visit. So that's still a question (are they excellent at home, or is their top 6 form padded but winning the home games against us, P'Boro and Stevenage).

Are they the best set of players or are they better managed and coached to play football more effectively than we are?

Won't be happy until Evatt's gone, will you?

[BWFC_Insane]

I suspect it's one of both of:

1) Like Plymouth, they are the best team. You're entitled to think they don't have better players, but if they keep up their current ppg against the top 6 I'm pretty confident they'll go up as champions, deservedly so, and that's pretty good evidence as to how good their players are. They are also unbeaten against the rest of the top 4 (and I think, but would have to check) the top 6.

2) their home form so far has been exceptional (as was Plymouth's), but they still have Barnsley and Derby to visit. So that's still a question (are they excellent at home, or is their top 6 form padded but winning the home games against us, P'Boro and Stevenage).

Are they the best set of players or are they better managed and coached to play football more effectively than we are?

Won't be happy until Evatt's gone, will you?

Portsmouth finished 3 places and 11 points below us last season.

So either they’ve recruited far better than we have to not just bridge the gap but go well beyond it.

Or are managed and coached better.

Or a combination of the two. Why is it unfair to ask the questions?

[Prufrock]

I suspect it's one of both of:

1) Like Plymouth, they are the best team. You're entitled to think they don't have better players, but if they keep up their current ppg against the top 6 I'm pretty confident they'll go up as champions, deservedly so, and that's pretty good evidence as to how good their players are. They are also unbeaten against the rest of the top 4 (and I think, but would have to check) the top 6.

2) their home form so far has been exceptional (as was Plymouth's), but they still have Barnsley and Derby to visit. So that's still a question (are they excellent at home, or is their top 6 form padded but winning the home games against us, P'Boro and Stevenage).

Are they the best set of players or are they better managed and coached to play football more effectively than we are?

There's no way to know, conveniently.

I mean, what are best players? Man for man is surely Derby (you'd hope so if you had the chequebook). But it's combinations, matched to coaching style etc.

But given they don't mean much in isolation, the league table seems the best way of determining it. We'll see.

[Worthy4England]

Coz you didn't suggest there was owt wrong in 2017, when we were W18 D9 L8 at the same point, because you liked Parky and the way he played?

[dave the minion]

Or a combination of the two. Why is it unfair to ask the questions?

Its not unfair at all, its just really, really, really f*cking boring you repeating the same old negative comments about the players/manager/coaching setup/owners/any combination of them.....

[BWFC_Insane]

Coz you didn't suggest there was owt wrong in 2017, when we were W18 D9 L8 at the same point, because you liked Parky and the way he played?

Match day 35 in that season we went to Fleetwood who were above us at the time with ourselves scnuthorpe and them battling for second spot and overran their midfield with the return of Pratley and won 4-2.

It’s possible we do something similar Tuesday. I’m fairly sure that there were a lot of complaints that season. Indeed I remember them.

[Mar]

Top 4
-------------Pts (Games)-----PPG (Rank)-------Games Left
Pompey-----7 (3)--------------2.33 (1)-----------3
Derby-------4(4)---------------1 (=3)-------------2
Bolton-------4 (3)-------------1.33 (2)-----------3
Barnsley-----4(4)--------------1 (=3)-------------2

Top 6

--------------Pts--------------PPG (Rank)---Games Left
Pompey----14 (6)-----------2.33 (1)------------ 4
Derby------10 (8)-----------1.25 (4)-------------2
Bolton------8 (5)------------1.6 (2)--------------5
Barnsley---8 (7)------------1.14 (5)-------------3
P'Boro------9 (7)------------1.29 (3)-------------3
Stevenage-5 (7)-------------0.71 (6)------------3

Going off those tables, Derby having two games left with a worse PPG rank than it might be a safe assumption to think they'll likely struggle to improve that record given they're against us at home and vs Portsmouth away.


The fact we're looking at table table thinking we're bottle jobs against the tough teams is probably skewed somewhat by our performances vs Reading and Wigan, who were a better prospect against us than they are currently.

With 5 games left for us to play against the top 6, our sample size vs the top teams is relatively small and we just consider ourselves to be bad, because historically that's been the case. This season, given our 1.6 PPG, that's not the case. Perception can be a strange thing.

Looks like we're better than we think and we only consider ourselves to be bad because we can reflect on games vs the likes of Portsmouth and Barnsley and think urgh.

[Prufrock]

I'm not sure, pretty sure when I did the same thing at about the same stage we weren't exceptionally poor then either (we weren't second though). I think it just always feels that way (to everyone).

[Worthy4England]

Coz you didn't suggest there was owt wrong in 2017, when we were W18 D9 L8 at the same point, because you liked Parky and the way he played?

Match day 35 in that season we went to Fleetwood who were above us at the time with ourselves scnuthorpe and them battling for second spot and overran their midfield with the return of Pratley and won 4-2.

It’s possible we do something similar Tuesday. I’m fairly sure that there were a lot of complaints that season. Indeed I remember them.

All true. Just not from your good self.

[BWFC_Insane]

Coz you didn't suggest there was owt wrong in 2017, when we were W18 D9 L8 at the same point, because you liked Parky and the way he played?

Match day 35 in that season we went to Fleetwood who were above us at the time with ourselves scnuthorpe and them battling for second spot and overran their midfield with the return of Pratley and won 4-2.

It’s possible we do something similar Tuesday. I’m fairly sure that there were a lot of complaints that season. Indeed I remember them.

All true. Just not from your good self.

Well aye. But we went up.

[truewhite15]

Coz you didn't suggest there was owt wrong in 2017, when we were W18 D9 L8 at the same point, because you liked Parky and the way he played?

Match day 35 in that season we went to Fleetwood who were above us at the time with ourselves scnuthorpe and them battling for second spot and overran their midfield with the return of Pratley and won 4-2.

It’s possible we do something similar Tuesday. I’m fairly sure that there were a lot of complaints that season. Indeed I remember them.

All true. Just not from your good self.

Well aye. But we went up.

But that was just as uncertain at the time as it is right now. The win against Fleetwood came off the back of a run of poor results, not as the apex of a fantastic run. Yet you seem determined to predict oh so confidently that we're going to bollix it up this season, apparently all because of Evatt's perceived failings.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Coz you didn't suggest there was owt wrong in 2017, when we were W18 D9 L8 at the same point, because you liked Parky and the way he played?

Match day 35 in that season we went to Fleetwood who were above us at the time with ourselves scnuthorpe and them battling for second spot and overran their midfield with the return of Pratley and won 4-2.

It’s possible we do something similar Tuesday. I’m fairly sure that there were a lot of complaints that season. Indeed I remember them.

All true. Just not from your good self.

Well aye. But we went up.

But that was just as uncertain at the time as it is right now. The win against Fleetwood came off the back of a run of poor results, not as the apex of a fantastic run. Yet you seem determined to predict oh so confidently that we're going to bollix it up this season, apparently all because of Evatt's perceived failings.

It did indeed. And the week before Fleetwood, after we'd disappointingly drawn at home to AFC Wimbledon – meaning we'd only won two of our previous 10 league games - one p1ssed-off punter wrote thusly on this forum:

Frankly we will be clinging on for a play off place at best. And unless the new lads suddenly click, can't see us troubling any of the play off sides right now. We are too disjointed.

Same poster also said:

Our problem is at the minute that when we lose control of a game, as every side in history will, we can't keep the lid on things.

And:

Reading between the lines of that Taylor interview, it sounds to me like there is a feeling in the squad that they aren't good enough. [...] The cockiness we went into games with pre Christmas, where even if we didn't play particularly well (Scunthorpe for example), we always stayed in games and found ways to win, in my view evaporated suddenly in January. The old mental weakness creeping back in?

Any guesses who? Answer's at viewtopic.php?p=1037354#p1037354