This Exe is on fire: Exeter (A) Sat 9 Mar, 3pm

[BWFC_Insane]

Coleman, despite being badly at fault for their first, actually kept us in the game with 2 stunning saves in the 2nd half.

Toal and Iredale seem to be under instructions to only pass sideways to Rico, who then puts his foot on it until the opposition are back behind the ball, then tw*ats it upfield where we more than often lose possession. Madness that we didn't get Jones going down the wing today in either half.

Jon Dadi having a long moan at the end to Evatt and coaching staff, not sure over what.

In its current guise, this is a top 6 or 7 side at best. We're currently miles of a top two side, despite what the table suggests.

I think Santos has looked very out of sorts since coming back. Form or fitness?

[DJBlu]

Another injury with Vic's hamstring. Charles has aggrevated his knee injury. He fails to update on Baxter.

JDB, Jerome, Collins.

Bit shit this.

edit:

I do wonder if we're protecting Charles from a call up for N. Ireland. Worth risking over a friendly?

[officer_dibble]

Aye, coupled with the ghost loanees - Ramsay and Caleb Taylor makes January look like a bit of a bust.

That Mendes Gomes injury is the biggest shitter. fecking Wigan, we are cursed there!

[TANGODANCER]

Coleman, despite being badly at fault for their first, actually kept us in the game with 2 stunning saves in the 2nd half.

Toal and Iredale seem to be under instructions to only pass sideways to Rico, who then puts his foot on it until the opposition are back behind the ball, then tw*ats it upfield where we more than often lose possession. Madness that we didn't get Jones going down the wing today in either half.

Jon Dadi having a long moan at the end to Evatt and coaching staff, not sure over what.

In its current guise, this is a top 6 or 7 side at best. We're currently miles of a top two side, despite what the table suggests.

Which he shouldn't have had to make if we weren't scrambling. One up to 1-2 down in five minute's is hardly Champ stuff. The rest I agree with.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We need a new system. A new approach. Try something. Anything. Because doing the same thing week in week out is only going one way.

Presumably the 4-2-3-1 for which there's occasionally a cry. But if so, who goes up top? Jerome? Collins is finding his feet as a 10, but I don't think he's a 9 - or at least not yet. Bod tries, but again I think he's more 10 than 9. And that's before we start to ask about making subs up top, which is necessary with our pressing strategy - or are we throwing that out too?

I can't argue that it's very worrying, if we're now without Vic as well as Dion being delayed. But I think we need to wish carefully.

[Mar]

Aye, coupled with the ghost loanees - Ramsay and Caleb Taylor makes January look like a bit of a bust.

As far as I could tell, Ramsay and Taylor were just short term signings to cover our injury crisis. We needn't have signed them without that period. Now the mainstays are back it's only right we're not using them.

Coleman, despite being badly at fault for their first, actually kept us in the game with 2 stunning saves in the 2nd half.

I don't think it helps that we single out Coleman each week for criticism. Two stunning saves in the second half doesn't make up for his shocking moment of madness which rocked our squad for a good 40 minutes. I actually rate Coleman's ability to stop shots seems he has good reaction times, it's just the strange decision making when deciding to come for the ball or when to stay.

I would've thought Gilks and an on-hand Baxter would've been able to help settle him down and do some decision making work, but sadly it seems we've got some repeated uncertainties in his game. It's a real shame as it's unsettling us each week.

Sure we shouldn't go from dominating the match to playing second fiddle throughout the entirety of the second half solely on the basis of one error, buts that is what happened. Kill off the opposition in that first half and the Coleman mistake becomes a minor footnote in history.

We've had 9 games with Coleman in net yielding one clean sheet, 9 games in the space of 1 month (10/2/2024 - 9/2/2024) and 2 more to come before a significant break. Evatt's rotated to try and keep people fresh and uninjured. It's a case of we're firefighting. We've got two more games before the international break.

There's been no let up for the players since the 6 day stretch between Accrington Stanley and Luton games on the 10th - 16th Jan. The international breaks earlier in the season seemed to break things up and give players some rest.

The decision to squeeze in the Cambridge at home fixture when we did might have added to our woes.

I suspect that we've not had much time to train properly and the frequency of fixtures isn't helping recoveries.

Well, next up Oxford and Derby. Oxford televised usually won't help as we're not known for good results on TV (that 4-0 Wembley aside).

9 games left to go. A nice break after Derby and then some decently spaced fixtures remaining. Current form has us at 15 from the last 30 available. Lincoln with 22 out of 30 and Derby with 19 out of 30. Winning against Derby and winning our home games would see us get 18 points which based upon current form from other teams would likely see us over the line, but that's on the off chance that other teams dont step up their game.

[BWFC_Insane]

We need a new system. A new approach. Try something. Anything. Because doing the same thing week in week out is only going one way.

Presumably the 4-2-3-1 for which there's occasionally a cry. But if so, who goes up top? Jerome? Collins is finding his feet as a 10, but I don't think he's a 9 - or at least not yet. Bod tries, but again I think he's more 10 than 9. And that's before we start to ask about making subs up top, which is necessary with our pressing strategy - or are we throwing that out too?

I can't argue that it's very worrying, if we're now without Vic as well as Dion being delayed. But I think we need to wish carefully.

With three fit strikers till the end of the season (it sounds like) I’d say firstly we as a priority need to stop flogging them into the ground.

We need a more solid base as we don’t have the wing backs to carry this system right now.

I’d go with this.

Iredale Toal Santos Jones
Sheehan
GT. Maghoma
Ogbeta Williams
Collins

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, worrying about the strikers when we're conceding 2's, 3's and 4's seems like poor logic. We need to stop leaking stupid goals, especially with four attacking options injured...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I’d go with this.

Iredale Toal Santos Jones
Sheehan
GT. Maghoma
Ogbeta Williams
Collins

No goalkeeper, Iredale at right-back, Ogbeta at right-wing? You've not picked many teams have you?

In all seriousness, I see what you're saying - which is basically "drop a striker for a left-back". Fair enough if you think that'd work. But I would ask when we are going to work on the tactics of this? In the one full training session we'll have before hosting Oxford? Or the two we might just squeeze in before travelling to Derby?

Yeah, worrying about the strikers when we're conceding 2's, 3's and 4's seems like poor logic. We need to stop leaking stupid goals, especially with four attacking options injured...

We definitely need to concede fewer, I daresay that's not gone unnoticed. But we might also want to consider not curbing our attacking options - the ones brought by a system that broke goalscoring records - especially if we're currently having to bag multiple goals even to get a point...

Put it this way: If I have a spending problem, but a highly-paid job, it would be a curious decision to resign.

But then, Evatt has switched systems before, to great effect... it wouldn't astonish me after the break - but it would really surprise me this week.

[BWFC_Insane]

I’d go with this.

Iredale Toal Santos Jones
Sheehan
GT. Maghoma
Ogbeta Williams
Collins

No goalkeeper, Iredale at right-back, Ogbeta at right-wing? You've not picked many teams have you?

In all seriousness, I see what you're saying - which is basically "drop a striker for a left-back". Fair enough if you think that'd work. But I would ask when we are going to work on the tactics of this? In the one full training session we'll have before hosting Oxford? Or the two we might just squeeze in before travelling to Derby?

Yeah, worrying about the strikers when we're conceding 2's, 3's and 4's seems like poor logic. We need to stop leaking stupid goals, especially with four attacking options injured...

We definitely need to concede fewer, I daresay that's not gone unnoticed. But we might also want to consider not curbing our attacking options - the ones brought by a system that broke goalscoring records - especially if we're currently having to bag multiple goals even to get a point...

Put it this way: If I have a spending problem, but a highly-paid job, it would be a curious decision to resign.

But then, Evatt has switched systems before, to great effect... it wouldn't astonish me after the break - but it would really surprise me this week.

We need to be more compact and less wide open. Grind out some wins.

If the argument is keep doing the same things till it’s too late then we have the evidence in the last 6 weeks that it’s not going to magically change.

[Worthy4England]

Not buying that DSB. That it broke "scoring records" is fine, but doesn't get you promoted necessarily. 7-0, 3-3 bags you 4 points not 6 despite 10 goals. 1-0, 1-0 gets you 6.

What we need right now is wins not high scoring draws. That's not a forever plan. There's 9 games left. I don't mind if we win 'em all 3-2 from here on in, but I'll settle for 8, 1-0's which seems statistically more likely. Dropping out of the promotion party whilst celebrating total goal tally would be hollow for me. Might as well applaud xG.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If the argument is keep doing the same things till it’s too late

I suggest you don't get a job abridging books.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Not buying that DSB. That it broke "scoring records" is fine, but doesn't get you promoted necessarily. 7-0, 3-3 bags you 4 points not 6 despite 10 goals. 1-0, 1-0 gets you 6.

What we need right now is wins not high scoring draws. That's not a forever plan. There's 9 games left. I don't mind if we win 'em all 3-2 from here on in, but I'll settle for 8, 1-0's which seems statistically more likely. Dropping our of the promotion party whilst celebrating total goal tally would be hollow for me. Might as well applaud xG.

Applaud whatever you like, me old matey. I'm just saying we need to keep scoring goals.

[BWFC_Insane]

If the argument is keep doing the same things till it’s too late

I suggest you don't get a job abridging books.

The results are very poor. As are performances. We are down to three strikers.

We have two must win games coming up. How do we change the current form? Because we need to change it and in two days.

I accept it’s not a lot of time to work on a new system but I’m asking you how you address the systemic failings of our team in the last ten games? Is it just play the same system and hope it works out? Because we’ve been doing that and it hasn’t.

If you think there is a reason why it suddenly will now, then I’m all ears.

If the argument is you don’t think the alternative will work either than fine, but isn’t it worth a try?

[Worthy4England]

Not buying that DSB. That it broke "scoring records" is fine, but doesn't get you promoted necessarily. 7-0, 3-3 bags you 4 points not 6 despite 10 goals. 1-0, 1-0 gets you 6.

What we need right now is wins not high scoring draws. That's not a forever plan. There's 9 games left. I don't mind if we win 'em all 3-2 from here on in, but I'll settle for 8, 1-0's which seems statistically more likely. Dropping our of the promotion party whilst celebrating total goal tally would be hollow for me. Might as well applaud xG.

Applaud whatever you like, me old matey. I'm just saying we need to keep scoring goals.

We do. And to concede fewer.

[BWFC_Insane]

Worthy is right imho. Our biggest issue is a lack of clean sheets. 1-0 wins would do and grinding them out is a necessity.

In open games where we are flogging our wing backs up and down the line we are leaving ourselves too easy to score against. We can blame the keeper but the second goal yesterday was farcical defending from the whole side and not Coleman’s fault. It’s how we are setup. It works when we are flying and on form and wing backs are effective but now they are not. So the system is falling apart. We are not able to win games like this. We can’t play a high line. We can’t cope being pressed. And we can only sustain our game for periods. And when we drop off we lack the energy and ability to see games out in this shape.

If we had more structure less space for the opponents to play in we might be able to use the quality of Collins up top and some pace from wide ‘attackers’ who have less up and down work to do.

We might be able to do less running overall and eke out some results - that we desperately need.

But we’ve gone past the point that our issues can’t be classed as systemic. They are.

[Prufrock]

I posted this after Blackpool:

He won't rip it up, and probably rightly so. We were good against Cambridge, and good going forwards with 11 against Blackpool. The issues yesterday were individual mistakes rather than the shape.

I would personally like to see us go 343 though. CMG has been the brightest spark in the last two games, and we need to get Collins in.

Part of our issue at the moment is we're always looking to get 2v1 down the side with the wing backs and the 8s, and so Sheehan gets left alone, and when the wing backs get pinned in we can't get out.

So at home against Cambridge say you could go:

Coleman
Jones, Santos, Toal
JDC Sheehan Thomason Ogbeta
CMG Vic Collins

But a Wigan away:

Coleman
Jones Santos Toal
JDC Sheehan Thomason Ogbeta
Dempsey Vic Maghoma.

You also have the option to go and or press high as a 3 rather than a 2, or to fill the middle of the pitch.

Also, Christ we miss Baxter.

Might be something that forces his hand, he now can't change both strikers in a 2.

CMG a loss, but Randy has spent a lot of his career as a RW.

[officer_dibble]

Another argument is get your best players on the pitch - if we’ve got no Victor or Dion on Tuesday then for me Bod isn’t in our best 11 available. Randell further forward is more likely to score…

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I suspect words like “systemic” are being misused to fit a theory, or at least not used to stress-test alternatives like a 4-2-3-1.

Take yesterday’s game as an example. That first goal we scored, over which we were all rightly purring, came about because of overloads and movement. When Thomason whips in that gorgeous ball from 30 yards out, right by the touchline, Aaron Collins has passed him the ball and is now basically standing on chalk. Meanwhile, Gethin Jones is a yard from the angle of the penalty box. And that’s before we mention Sheehan, our supposed No.6, bursting into the box and cutting back from within five yards of the byline. None of those things happen in a “cautious” system with Collins as a 9, Geth as a stay-home right-back and Sheehan as anchorman. So that goal doesn’t happen. Neither do many others.

Exeter’s goals both came down our right. The first was a long diag in which Geth fails to win his header. He fails to win that header whether he’s nominally a wingback, a full-back or a linesman - it’s got nowt to do with The System. Nor does the fact that Toal is turned easily and Coleman is apparently on the way back to the dressing room as if he’s forgotten his gloves. Those are player errors.

For their second goal, Toal (a player I like a lot and hate digging out, but you can’t conduct an autopsy without a scalpel) is caught between two men and skitters, with dark hilarity in retrospect, between the two men - running away from the striker too late to reach the winger, but in doing so leaving the striker unmarked to run through onto the winger's pass. Now, there’s an argument to say a back four would have added a man there, but when we lost possession we were on the attack – and in the attack phase a back four leaves even more space down the sides of the centre-backs. Unless you keep both full-backs doggedly ‘at home’, in which case you aren’t scoring as many because you’re outnumbered.

The two goals we conceded at Barnsley. One is Tomo being caught in possession, which is nothing to do with formations (and, again, in a back four there’d be less cover behind him). The other is not clearing a corner, which is nothing to do with formations. But our first goal is (IMO) due to the fluidity of our formation.

Wigan’s goal: we’re set deep because they’ve had the ball for 20 seconds and we’ve flooded back – when the assist-pass is played we’ve literally got nine behind the ball. However, the runner sprints between Sheehan and JDC and behind Geth, none of whom even seem to notice. Not a formational system error, but a multiple player error.

Blackpool. Our goal created by JDC’s run making space for Dempsey to find Tomo. Their first: we’re in a good shape but nobody tackles the passer or the shooter. Their second: terrible defending on the line but we should also have stopped the cross coming in, which is less likely when you have a back four than a five (JDC was there, but in the box: too defensive?). Their third’s a penalty and their fourth when we’ve basically abandoned defence.

Cambridge away. For their goal, we’ve literally got eight men in our box but it loops off one of them. Not systemic.

Charlton 3-3. Ashworth assists Adeboyejo with a cross 10 yards from the byline – less likely in a cautious back four. They equalise from a deep cross (less likely to be cut out by a cautious back four) left untroubled by centre-back or goalkeeper. They go in front from a corner - not systemic. We equalise but let them score again when we have eight men in our box (one of them the stricken JDC). Not systemic. We equalise again with an assist from an overlapping wing-back. Systemic.

Etc and so on. This little ghost-train trip shows we have a lot of mistakes to get rid of, mistakes we didn't make when this system was working fine before Christmas. I'm not even totally against the idea of a back four, but I think the notion that it cures all ills is as naive as the worst of our defending.

[Worthy4England]

I don't think a back 4 cures everything either, on its own. But I'd also say that the spin seems to be that we only score goals because of this system. How did we get on in 96/7? I'd be surprised if we get to 100 goals this season, less surprised if the against column reads less than 53...