This Exe is on fire: Exeter (A) Sat 9 Mar, 3pm

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Next: to the Exe. The river after which Exeter is named was once dammed by one of those selfish landlords in which the English gentry excel, even though it choked off trade to the city. Can we choke off our promotion rivals, or are we also damned to failure?

The Barnsley brouhaha might be the nicest point we've had this season. Back in 2018 we also drew 2-2 at Oakwell, having been behind with 10 to go and ahead in injury time, before Oli McBurnie swooped to deny us two points that could have meant relegation. This time it felt very different and could be a springboard for more.

Changes may be necessary or desirable. We wait to see how bad Cogz' injury is, and a fair few would like to see Gethin Jones moved to RWB anyway to accommodate the impressive Iredale at LCB with Toal at RCB. Maghoma may rotate back in for Dempsey, and there's a chance Randell 'The Equaliser' Williams will return to the starting XI against the team he represented for a quarter of a decade - including doing his best to spike a Wanderers promotion party by scoring as the Grecians made Evatt wait to exit the Fourth Division in May 2021.

Exeter followed us up the next season, and settled into 14th last term despite losing manager Matt "Not That One" Taylor midway. Gary Caldwell's still at the helm and right now the team is in 16th, although only 3 points separate 14th and 20th in a tremendously tight race just above the bottom four.

Exeter have been in that group pretty much all season; even when a 7-0 tatering at ours left Caldwell expecting the sack, and even when a subsequent 2+0 loss at Cambridge made it 3pts from a possible 39, they didn't dip below the dots. Caldwell kept his job and they had a good January/February - four wins in five games, including at home to Peterborough and away to Wigan, Barnsley and (deliciously given their manager is now Matt 'Not That One' Taylor) Bristol Rovers. However, they've only got one point from the last four games.

They're the division's fourth-worst team at home – since mid-September they've lost there to nil twice as many times (six) as they've won by any score. Indeed, home or away when the opponent scores first (which has happened 24 times) they've only equalised 6 times (we've levelled 9 times out of 17, not always as spectacularly as at Barnsley).

Style-wise they're fairly average for the division - precisely average for direct speed, slightly more passes per sequence than the norm - and they're also midtable for pressing. They are, in short, not as good as us. The table suggests the vast majority of the divison aren't. Time to prove it.

Match Info

[The_Gun]

Tickets are actually still available for this one, but the trains from the smoke look dear and my Mrs might not be best pleased at being left in the lurch with the kids. Still tempted to do it after last night, though...

[boltonboris]

They'll think they owe us one and we should expect a tough game. I think (hope) we'll be buoyed by last night and win by the odd goal

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

They'll think they owe us one and we should expect a tough game. I think (hope) we'll be buoyed by last night and win by the odd goal

They're also the only team in the last 17 games to beat Barnsley, so they're capable. But they seem to have gone to sleep since that spurt. We've all done it.

[Izual_Rebirth]

Exeter don’t really have much to play for at the moment so that works in your favour.

[Worthy4England]

We'd be pretty fcuking dumb to believe that, and I'm pretty sure we won't.

[jmjhb]

We really need 6 points from our next 2 going into the game with Derby.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

We really need 6 points from our next 2 going into the game with Derby.

Sat 16 - when we're at Derby and Posh are at Peterborough, after which there's an international break - looks a crucial day.

Before then we're at Exeter and home to Oxford, which seems 6-able... but Derby have Bristol Rovers (A) and Reading (H), which also seems 6-able, as do Barnsley's games vs Lincoln (H) and Carlisle (A). Pompey are at Blackpool and home to Burton, so you can imagine the top four all going 100% before that weekend.

Oh and on that Sat 16, Barnsley host Cheltenham - so they'll be well-placed to tiptoe through the wreckage if the other top-5 teams tear each other apart.

[knobpolisher]

I'd wager the top 4 don't go 100% before that weekend as long as we do we should be in a good place.

[BWFC_Insane]

Looking at fixtures and whilst odd things happen in run ins I honestly think we need 8 wins out of our remaining fixtures at least. Barnsley and Derby have 8 wins imo and whilst one might slip - chances are both won’t.

Thats 94 points which I suspect is around where the mark will be.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Barnsley and Derby have 8 wins imo and whilst one might slip - chances are both won’t.

Looking at their fixtures, Barnsley could well win 10 - maybe even 11, given their Pompey gane might be rescheduled to the midweek after the leaders are at ours.

They could, but they probably won't.

[BWFC_Insane]

Barnsley and Derby have 8 wins imo and whilst one might slip - chances are both won’t.

Looking at their fixtures, Barnsley could well win 10 - maybe even 11, given their Pompey gane might be rescheduled to the midweek after the leaders are at ours.

They could, but they probably won't.

Yeah the 8 estimation allows for some of that. Win an unexpected game. Lose an unexpected one.

I do think that’s where we will need to be though. Expecting both derby and Barnsley to significantly fall away is unlikely to me. It might be 7 wins it might even be 9. I suspect though 8 will be about right. 89-94 points is where I think mark will be.

[DJBlu]

Would love a comfortable large win however Exeter have not been leaking too many goals in their past 6. Their losses have been by the odd goal.

3 points is all that matters and if we can get that then that's all that matters.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Barnsley and Derby have 8 wins imo and whilst one might slip - chances are both won’t.

Looking at their fixtures, Barnsley could well win 10 - maybe even 11, given their Pompey gane might be rescheduled to the midweek after the leaders are at ours.

They could, but they probably won't.

Yeah the 8 estimation allows for some of that. Win an unexpected game. Lose an unexpected one.

I do think that’s where we will need to be though. Expecting both derby and Barnsley to significantly fall away is unlikely to me. It might be 7 wins it might even be 9. I suspect though 8 will be about right. 89-94 points is where I think mark will be.

Aye. It's gonna be interesting to watch. Or maybe terrifying, but with love comes fear.

Genuinely, all of Barnsley's games (possibly bar Pompey away) look winnable to a team in form – but they just keep conceding, and few teams have gone up by winning 3-2 every week, so they will drop points (or rather drop more points - they dropped two on Tuesday from 2-0 up). Hopefully Tuesday's events will be not just a momentum springboard for us but an existential brake on their confidence - but that's guesswork or perhaps just wishful thinking.

Analytically, calmly, journalistically, I suspect Derby are a bigger threat for several reasons. Warne has been here before; they have better players (after all, they're paying more than enough for them); they're organised in defence and threatening in attack. But then, they've lost two of their last three, and each time after taking the lead...

[jmjhb]

https://www.probs4.club/team/Bolton

6 wins gives us a >50% chance. 7 wins nearly 90%.

[Mar]

https://www.probs4.club/team/Bolton

6 wins gives us a >50% chance. 7 wins nearly 90%.

That historical points progression graph looks great as far as this season goes. We're having our second best ever season if that is anything to go by.

[Worthy4England]

https://www.probs4.club/team/Bolton

6 wins gives us a >50% chance. 7 wins nearly 90%.

That historical points progression graph looks great as far as this season goes. We're having our second best ever season if that is anything to go by.

It is and we are.

[TANGODANCER]

No Nostradamus me, I'll stick with hope .."The best laid plans of mice and men" etc. Hope springs eternal and is ever present, so I just keep hoping. Not done too bad up to now. Strangely confident with this one though.

[irie Cee Bee]

In all run in's, the seemingly "easier" games against teams fighting to stay alive are usually more difficult that the games considered "hard" so I expect many twists and turns. We can only take care of our business and care not for what others are doing. Every game from now on will be battles. I am happy that Evatt now has an effective plan B to bypass the press, and have players returning to fitness. Exciting times ahead.

[Worthy4England]

Cup finals. 10 of 'em.