Ox on the box, c*cks on the blocks? Oxford (H) Tue 12 Mar, 8pm

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

After one home game in the last six, Wanderers return to the Toughsheet on TV. Will it be good viewing at home sweet home? Well that depends on the result.

Actually, results aren't everything in determining the mood. A 2-2 at Barnsley was cheered to the echo; a 2-2 at Exeter provoked the clanging chimes of doom. A fortunate 1-0 squeak past Oxford wouldn't make those bells end, especially not with a daunting day at Derby looming at the weekend.

Not winning at Exeter dropped Bolton below Derby into third. Even so, automatic promotion is in Evatt's hands - win all their remaining games and Bolton go up. But if Derby win all theirs, they go up. And if Posh win all theirs, they (almost certainly) go above Bolton, and force Derby to win all theirs to retain 2nd place. Tight race.

Oxford were in that race for a while, but their underlying numbers were never particularly strong and the loss of gaffer Liam Manning to Bristol City affected them badly. They were 2nd when he left in early November, but his replacement Des Buckingham got 2pts from his first four games to drop to 5th place.

Four wins in six followed but didn't improve the league position – Pompey, Posh, Bolton and Derby all applied the afterburners at that point – and since mid-January the irritatingly apostrophised U's have won 2 in 11 league games (D5 L4). They're basically now in a straight fight with Stevenage for the final playoff place.

That's a battle of styles – Stevenage's long-ball against Oxford's short passing. Buckingham is Oxford born and bred – he came through the club's youth ranks, didn't make the cut and immediately started coaching their youth teams at age 18 – but he has been moulded by Man City. At age 35 he was hired by Melbourne City, the City Football Group's Aussie outfit, and then switched to Mumbai City, their Indian bureau.

So while it's potentially problematic to parse the Opta data when managers change midstream, I think we can confidently expect Oxford to play out from the back. Over the season, they're the closest to us on the Opta style matrix - indeed in the 24-team tables for passes per sequence, direct speed, 10+-pass open play sequences and build-up attacks, they're right next to us. Should be nice for the viewers, if not for the terrified fans.

We're basically looking at a mirror image of ourselves, except one which is desperately trying to get into the play-offs instead of desperately trying to avoid them. Funny how football goes.

[officer_dibble]

I can see a 0-0, repeat of the away game.

[boltonboris]

I can see a 0-0, repeat of the away game.

This is where I was heading, but I'm not sure I see a clean sheet.

[The_Gun]

I guess Evatt will be doing a press conference today, but did he already say something about Charles re-aggravating his injury? Another kick in our already bruised bollocks if so.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I can see a 0-0, repeat of the away game.

This is where I was heading, but I'm not sure I see a clean sheet.

In the last 11 games, we've scored in 10 and conceded in 10. Since Dec 23rd, Oxford have played 16 league games; they've scored in 14 and conceded in 15. (In January they lost Brighton loanee keeper James Beadle – who we'd chased in summer – when the Seagulls upgraded him to Sheffield Wednesday, where he's become first choice and kept five clean sheets in 10 games.)

I'm not a gambler, but if I were, I wouldn't be betting on bagels. Might well be another Tuesday night nail-biter.

[BWFC_Insane]

I guess Evatt will be doing a press conference today, but did he already say something about Charles re-aggravating his injury? Another kick in our already bruised bollocks if so.

What he said has been reported - Charles aggravated his knee. Nothing more said. But reading between the lines from what Iles has said it doesn't seem good.

[BWFC_Insane]

I find it impossible to read our games these days. Could be anything this I suspect. 0-0 to high scoring draw to any result in between.

All I know is - its another game where realistically anything else other than a Bolton win will not be enough for our ambitions.

Don't expect a win, don't expect a defeat - I literally cannot call it or even have a hunch.

I feel like we need to adjust how we play a bit given the striker injuries - I just don't think its prudent to ask two to go hell for leather and then either injure themselves or feel the need to take them off. Collins needs to a lot of the time be nursed through 90 mins if possible. We need to ask him to almost be selfish and play up front in a selfish role - drift into spaces and cause havoc but save his legs the rest of the time.

[officer_dibble]

I’d be tempted with Randell up top, I really would. Not a bad finisher and quick. Not ideal but we would have Bod and Jerome on the bench who do seem better as subs.

[TANGODANCER]

Que-Sera Sera, as ever for me. Speculation and hope are equal chess pieces and managing to get a decent side out is a bonus. Can't even contemplate a draw because anything less than a win lets the boat drift away on the tide. All depends what we're satisfied with at season end, because, being honest, I doubt few of us thought injuries would deal us such a crap hand when we looked in the crystal ball. . As ever, I'll go with hope. Come on lads, dig in and fight the fight.

[boltonboris]

I do think Personnel is pointing at 4-3-3 but a lack of prep time will stop us doing it, presumably.

Hypothetically, if we did, we'd have Thomason screening so the full backs can still offer that width, Sheehan probing and Maghoma the one highest up feeding the the wide men and/or the striker.

It actually sounds pretty good at face value and I do believe we have the players to at least give it a go. But as said, 1 day to prepare a new system against a decent side is probably suicidal

[TANGODANCER]

I do think Personnel is pointing at 4-3-3 but a lack of prep time will stop us doing it, presumably.

Hypothetically, if we did, we'd have Thomason screening so the full backs can still offer that width, Sheehan probing and Maghoma the one highest up feeding the the wide men and/or the striker.

It actually sounds pretty good on paper and I do believe we have the players to at least give it a go. But as said, 1 day to prepare a new system against a decent side is probably suicidal

Totally agree, so it's a time to leave the drawing board under cover just go out and play football. They are professionals and it's what they're paid for, so be a bit inventive and let's see a bit of personal; skills at work.

[Worthy4England]

I do think Personnel is pointing at 4-3-3 but a lack of prep time will stop us doing it, presumably.

Hypothetically, if we did, we'd have Thomason screening so the full backs can still offer that width, Sheehan probing and Maghoma the one highest up feeding the the wide men and/or the striker.

It actually sounds pretty good at face value and I do believe we have the players to at least give it a go. But as said, 1 day to prepare a new system against a decent side is probably suicidal

Yeah - I think there is a genuine question around whether we might have been working it in the background for longer than a day. I mean ostensibly we're only one attacking player worse off today than Friday. At that point, we already had an "injury list," most of it known for a week or so, so it's possible they were working something in the background anyhow? Dunno.

[boltonboris]

You mean.... a plan B???????

[jmjhb]

Expecting a 1-1 draw

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

It's not infeasible that we've been working on a different system but when?

There's 65 days between Sun 7 Jan (Luton away) and Mar 12 (er, tomorrow). In that time we'll have kicked off 20 times – with two abandonments, but those games will have been carefully planned for, affecting training. Post-game, many of the most involved players will have a rest day (say Sunday), then a fairly full training day prepping for the next game (Monday), then very light work, if any, on the matchday Tuesday. Post-midweek it will be similar; they might be able to also do a Friday morning session, but they won't go mad.

We all chuckle about Evatt's #content #download but he's always been a system-based manager. One who, thankfully, is willing to change when necessary... but he will need time "on the grass" to do that. It's possible he could have spent some Friday mornings (say) pointing at magnetic pieces on a whiteboard, but he would want to drill those concepts on the grass – and immediately pre-match, would rather keep players focused on the task imminently at hand rather than a theoretical future world.

I could be wrong - they could pull a big surprise tomorrow or at Derby; it would certainly spanner Warne's scouting, but it would also be a huge huge huge risk for a game of that magnitude.

[Spartan2]

I've had the feeling for a while that 433 is Evatt's plan for next season. He's admitted that he thinks it's a better setup, why wouldn't you transition towards it if you think that. It better explains some of our signings like Collins and particularly Gomez, you could see both of them as wide forwards with Dion in the middle. The lack of WB cover, (thinking maybe it might be preferable to have 1 full back and 1 wb in a 433 but maybe that's stretching it).

I agree though, I'd be surprised if he changed anything this season.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I've had the feeling for a while that 433 is Evatt's plan for next season. He's admitted that he thinks it's a better setup, why wouldn't you transition towards it if you think that. It better explains some of our signings like Collins and particularly Gomez, you could see both of them as wide forwards with Dion in the middle. The lack of WB cover, (thinking maybe it might be preferable to have 1 full back and 1 wb in a 433 but maybe that's stretching it).

I'd like us to be able to play both, or rather either – makes us much harder to predict. Maybe Evatt hasn't trusted his players are good enough to do that but the time must be approaching.

The other question is whether it suits the players we have. Dion IMO works better with a partner. Rico better as the spare man. Most of the others I can see in either system - and as you say, perhaps more so CMG and Collins (although to me, in a two-striker system Collins can be a 10 with licence to roam).

[BWFC_Insane]

It's not infeasible that we've been working on a different system but when?

There's 65 days between Sun 7 Jan (Luton away) and Mar 12 (er, tomorrow). In that time we'll have kicked off 20 times – with two abandonments, but those games will have been carefully planned for, affecting training. Post-game, many of the most involved players will have a rest day (say Sunday), then a fairly full training day prepping for the next game (Monday), then very light work, if any, on the matchday Tuesday. Post-midweek it will be similar; they might be able to also do a Friday morning session, but they won't go mad.

We all chuckle about Evatt's #content #download but he's always been a system-based manager. One who, thankfully, is willing to change when necessary... but he will need time "on the grass" to do that. It's possible he could have spent some Friday mornings (say) pointing at magnetic pieces on a whiteboard, but he would want to drill those concepts on the grass – and immediately pre-match, would rather keep players focused on the task imminently at hand rather than a theoretical future world.

I could be wrong - they could pull a big surprise tomorrow or at Derby; it would certainly spanner Warne's scouting, but it would also be a huge huge huge risk for a game of that magnitude.

I take your point but we've had managers in the past who would change the system game to game sometimes. Sometimes even mid game.

We'd switch to something and try it. As others have mused I do wonder if partly the 'time on grass to prepare' thing is a bit overdone. Or perhaps we've made ourselves victims to it? Some would argue that professional footballers should be able to switch systems - maybe not all the time but I think the idea that playing with a back 4 is such an alien concept we can't do it without a week or two to prepare perhaps is symptomatic of some of the issues?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I take your point but we've had managers in the past who would change the system game to game sometimes. Sometimes even mid game.

We'd switch to something and try it. As others have mused I do wonder if partly the 'time on grass to prepare' thing is a bit overdone. Or perhaps we've made ourselves victims to it? Some would argue that professional footballers should be able to switch systems - maybe not all the time but I think the idea that playing with a back 4 is such an alien concept we can't do it without a week or two to prepare perhaps is symptomatic of some of the issues?

See my subsequent post - I'd be happy for us to switch it up. But I'd imagine Evatt is a bit more considered than Redknapp's "just go on and run abaht a bit".

[boltonboris]

Imagine if we switched shape and got beat. It would be cited as THE reason and the stick to beat him with, even though people are pandering for it