Not exactly a Derby. Away to The Rams, Sat 16th March 3-0'clock.

[TANGODANCER]

A seventy six mile trip doesn't really qualify as a Derby in the Strict football sense, so a two hour or so, coach trip, isn't exactly visiting the neighbours. It will also be a little less than a pleasure trip to Pride Park as a bit more than your normal footy match is at stake. Can the Super Whites (who will probably be in black) maintain the scintillating stuff we had against Oxford? This is likely to be a single goal win or lose with a draw not exactly ruled out, but hey, let's go positive and show some pride of our own. Who do we take to battle and will Dion figure? Let's go..

[enrdentw]

This is our biggest game of the season.
Looking at the Derby website earlier and it’s pretty much a sell out.
We must not lose.

[BWFC_Insane]

This is our biggest game of the season.
Looking at the Derby website earlier and it’s pretty much a sell out.
We must not lose.

Succinct. But absolutely accurate.

[Worthy4England]

If we want to be top 2, that would currently preclude Derby being second. Need to win (but deffo not lose). We've had "must wins" since about Christmas. This probably is one. All the stuff IE talks about being brave - now is the time, with a few more to come before seasons end.

[plymouth wanderer]

Huge game. making the drive up. cannot wait.

[Harry Genshaw]

I love this team and love the manager, however I'm still unconvinced about us in games like this.

A draw would be great and sadly, I think the best we can hope for.

1-3 loss.

[Mar]

The one Derby game that we don't consider to be a Derby game and hopefully we don't treat it as such.

Chance to go 2nd before the international break. Time to stand up and be counted.

[Mar]

I love this team and love the manager, however I'm still unconvinced about us in games like this.

A draw would be great and sadly, I think the best we can hope for.

1-3 loss.

Arguably we would've said the same earlier in the season before playing Oxford away. Might just be selection bias as to why we feel that way.

[Harry Genshaw]

I love this team and love the manager, however I'm still unconvinced about us in games like this.

A draw would be great and sadly, I think the best we can hope for.

1-3 loss.

Arguably we would've said the same earlier in the season before playing Oxford away. Might just be selection bias as to why we feel that way.

I don't think it is. A midweek game at a decent Oxford side was a good point. It doesn't negate the hammering at Blackpool, the 2 defeats v Wigan or the failure to beat any of the top 3 last season.

This side has answered a lot of question marks against it but aren't yet winning games I'd expect a top 2 side to win.

[TANGODANCER]

This side has answered a lot of question marks against it but aren't yet winning games I'd expect a top 2 side to win.

Sheffield Wednesday management probably thought the same...

[Prufrock]

I haven't updated the top 6 v top 6 game in a few weeks but I suspect our draw at Barnsley keeps us second in that (albeit pending). Everyone feels that way.

[Harry Genshaw]

I haven't updated the top 6 v top 6 game in a few weeks but I suspect our draw at Barnsley keeps us second in that (albeit pending). Everyone feels that way.

Well yes, we've still to travel Derby, Stevenage and Peterborough so plenty of chances to lay down markers. As well as top6 v top6, I include fierce local derbies in crunch games and we've largely been found wanting in those.

[BWFC_Insane]

I haven't updated the top 6 v top 6 game in a few weeks but I suspect our draw at Barnsley keeps us second in that (albeit pending). Everyone feels that way.

We’ve not won away at any of the top 8. We still have Derby, Stevenage and Posh to play away but one can summise that most teams that go up will win some of these games. Meaning we have to break that duck at least a couple of times if we want to do this. Saturday seems like the place to start.

[Worthy4England]

I think there's some interest in looking at how many points the last 6 accumulated in the final 8 games, last season.

Plymouth on 80 after 38 = 21
Sheff on 79 after 38 = 17
Ipswich on 78 after 38 = 20
Barnsley on 75 after 38 = 11
Bolton on 74 after 38 = 17
Peterborough on 63 after 38 = 17

Plymouth are on the same tally as the team who won it last season
P2 is 4 points lower
P3 is 4 points lower
P4 is 1-4 points lower (depending on game in hand)
P5 is 3 points lower
P6 is 2 points lower

It suggest that whilst the teams below Plymouth might be a bit adrift, we still might have to accumulate 17-21 points out of 24. There's not a lot of perms that do this (possible I've missed a couple).

17 = 5W, 2D, 1L
18 = 5W, 3D or 6W, 2L
19 = 6W, 1D, 1L
20 = 6W, 2D
21 = 7W, 1L
22 = 7W, 1D
23 = Not possible
24 = 8W

There probably aren't too many losses left in the games with a route to automatics. 1 would be bad, 2 might be fatal.

Obviously all teams might cave in and lose form, in which case this would all be bollocks - but I suspect it shows there's little margin for error.

[BWFC_Insane]

^Agree with the analysis I think we are looking at 90-95 points range if we want top two. And it will be somewhere in there.

However, we can’t have been on 74 points after 38 last season surely?

[Worthy4England]

^Agree with the analysis I think we are looking at 90-95 points range if we want top two. And it will be somewhere in there.

However, we can’t have been on 74 points after 38 last season surely?

Sorry mate - typo - 64 and we got +17 to end on 81.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

@Worthy interesting stuff, thanks for researching. I have a couple of questions…

First I'm assuming the 2nd and 3rd mentions of "Plymouth" re this season are actually Portsmouth.

More overall. If we're saying that barring Pompey, this term's pace is currently slightly cooler that last year's – as I understand by the "x points lower" comparisons - then surely it's a bit odd to say this season's competitors will need to match last season's totals?

IDK. As the Owls found last season, you can be on a damn good statistical path but if somebody's on one slightly better it doesn't matter a jot. And as you've pointed out a couple of times, this is statistically our second-best season ever, but again it'll matter little if we finish 3rd and lose in the playoffs.

There's some interest in these things – I know I spend a lot of time looking into them myself - but in the end it's just being better than the team in third. Tempting to see it right now as "do better than Derby" but that might change within a game if Posh and/or Barnsley keep a better pace.

Just keep winning, I guess. Usually solves the issue. To do so tomorrow would be smashing.

[Worthy4England]

@Worthy interesting stuff, thanks for researching. I have a couple of questions…

First I'm assuming the 2nd and 3rd mentions of "Plymouth" re this season are actually Portsmouth.

More overall. If we're saying that barring Pompey, this term's pace is currently slightly cooler that last year's – as I understand by the "x points lower" comparisons - then surely it's a bit odd to say this season's competitors will need to match last season's totals?

IDK. As the Owls found last season, you can be on a damn good statistical path but if somebody's on one slightly better it doesn't matter a jot. And as you've pointed out a couple of times, this is statistically our second-best season ever, but again it'll matter little if we finish 3rd and lose in the playoffs.

There's some interest in these things – I know I spend a lot of time looking into them myself - but in the end it's just being better than the team in third. Tempting to see it right now as "do better than Derby" but that might change within a game if Posh and/or Barnsley keep a better pace.

Just keep winning, I guess. Usually solves the issue. To do so tomorrow would be smashing.

2nd/3rd mentions - yup Pompey (trying to do too many things at once).

As for the "odd comparison" We could assume they get a lower points total, but they'll get a lower points total just by matching last years run-in tally. They'd have to get higher number of points to hit the same final tally. So for Derby to get to 2nd place, they'd need 23 points, so 8 wins to get to a minimum 98 points (the team in 3rd - us, would need the same tally to "do an Ipswich"). So it self corrects in the sense that we're looking at what teams did from here, rather than what they've done to get here. There's a win and a draw different so far - so you probably wouldn't bet against there being much more than a 3 point difference.

You are welcome to back 15 being enough, I wouldn't. But one (or more) team(s) often tends to get some wind in their sails, one might drop off a bit like Barnsley. . The three teams that got 17 points from here, didn't make the top 2 and in Sheff's case 18 wouldn't have helped them. So if we assume Portsmouth - now a significant 5 points clear - get one slot, then there's 4 fighting for the other

I think we need at least 6 wins to end up top 2. And that might not quite be good enough.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

As for the "odd comparison" We could assume they get a lower points total, but they'll get a lower points total just by matching last years run-in tally. They'd have to get higher number of points to hit the same final tally. So for Derby to get to 2nd place, they'd need 23 points, so 8 wins to get to a minimum 98 points (the team in 3rd - us, would need the same tally to "do an Ipswich"). So it self corrects in the sense that we're looking at what teams did from here, rather than what they've done to get here. There's a win and a draw different so far - so you probably wouldn't bet against there being much more than a 3 point difference.

You are welcome to back 15 being enough, I wouldn't. But one (or more) team(s) often tends to get some wind in their sails, one might drop off a bit like Barnsley. . The three teams that got 17 points from here, didn't make the top 2 and in Sheff's case 18 wouldn't have helped them. So if we assume Portsmouth - now a significant 5 points clear - get one slot, then there's 4 fighting for the other

I think we need at least 6 wins to end up top 2. And that might not quite be good enough.

All fair.

It could go either way. The contenders could continue to fall short of last year's (frankly unbelievable) pace; right now Posh are headed for 88.2pts, us 89.5pts, Derby 90.7pts - the latter being 7.3pts short of Ipswich's 2nd-place total. They may even slacken off a bit - after all, remaining games include Posh-Pompey, Derby-Bolton, Pompey-Derby, Bolton-Pompey and Posh-Bolton, we can't all keep flying along.

Then again, as you say, a flyer often emerges. You'd have to fancy them for 2nd, if it's any of the teams currently 2nd-5th.

There's also the quality of opposition to consider, and that can't really be satisfactorily ascertained in "1st=1.0, 24th=0.0" binary. I haven't got the past data to prove this, but it feels like this season there's a whole swathe of not-very-good teams who are nonetheless reeeesaonably safe from relegation. And a further wide belt of midtable teams who are never gonna make the playoffs so might start to don the flipflops in the immediate future more than a team fighting for its life.

[Worthy4England]

All decent commentary. Given you can't get half points, you might back Derby for 91. So we'd need 6 wins out of 8. Whichever way it's spun, apart for a 4 team capitulation, it feels like a min of 6 out of 8 wins and that may not be goid enough. We probably only have room for maybe 1 loss as 2 might be fatal...