Not exactly a Derby. Away to The Rams, Sat 16th March 3-0'clock.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm glad we're performance and process driven. That's how you get results.

Played well, didn't win. Annoying, but sometimes that's how it goes.

He's the best manager we've had since Sam for me. Close with Parky, but true. I'm enjoying the ride.

Process and performance is fine but there is more to winning a football game than that. There is the intangibles. The Gerrard dragging Liverpool through repeatedly for example even when they didn’t play well. The derby keeper making a save like that.

The problem is not that we focus on process and performance for me it’s that it isn’t working. Our form is not good. So maybe we should be looking at results and questioning them and be driven somewhat by that. If the insistence is ‘well we just trust the process’ it’s not worked.

If you can find a way to quantify those intangibles then i'm sure the club would be all ears. As it is there's no way of doing that and showcasing that we're making progress. With Evatt's strategy it seems very much like it's a moneyball approach, adopting systems and processes and coming out with a way that improves xG.

Sure we could Owen Coyle it and hope for the best by playing fluid fast attacking football that hoped for the best, but if you look at the metrics it'd likely show that to be a worse option than the one we're currently adopting.

We're missing so many fixes that Evatt has put in place, CMG, Charles, Baxter, Johnston, N'lundulu, etc. that we've probably got the solution, it just isn't available. The tactics that we're playing now aren't dissimilar to the ones we were using with Baka and Bod up top where we seemed to score late goals all the time, perhaps its just a case of all the players believing at the same time, so with that in mind i'd be looking to tinker around the edges. The sort of quirks that Allardyce did such as the days off for a win, the psychological help, the yoga, etc. things that lessen the pressure.


I'd argue our performances warrant more than we've accrued in the last 10 games.

Derby and Portsmouth have horrendous injury lists. So we aren’t alone there.

The intangibles probably come down to character. People who when it really matters stand up to be counted. And teams that do the same. When you need something to get you out of a hole who do you look for. I think we’ve got a lack of those sorts of players. It’s not a lack of fight it’s a lack of leaders who absorb pressure and thrive under it. Who when it really matters produce a performance of the highest quality.

My sense with this team is that when there is something slightly askew, slightly off they struggle. Whether that’s psychological or physical. I don’t know. But in early season when the pressure is off and the suns out and everyone is fit and we aren’t carrying knocks we look like a team that can’t lose. First bump when Wigan come and try and get in our faces and we fall apart.

To me it’s hard to describe it but it’s flat track bully stuff. When we are content and settled and feel everything is right it’s complete dominance. But when that’s not the case we aren’t able to find other ways to get the results all too often. But my main point is we can’t just ignore that. We need to find fixes. Losing out in these games even when we’ve played ‘well’ is not a case of just waiting for our luck to turn. We have to be trying to fix what is happening and work out what is missing. You can say we did little wrong at Derby and I’d agree. But we only really for all our play created two chances and one was a half chance really the other produced a stunning save. And then conceded a soft one. The inability to force the issue and create chances for the possession we have and our ability to concede goals especially soft ones is not isolated to that game. It’s a running theme - through the second half of the season especially but it pre dates this season.

[Mar]

We're missing so many fixes that Evatt has put in place, CMG, Charles, Baxter, Johnston, N'lundulu, etc. that we've probably got the solution, it just isn't available. The tactics that we're playing now aren't dissimilar to the ones we were using with Baka and Bod up top where we seemed to score late goals all the time, perhaps its just a case of all the players believing at the same time, so with that in mind i'd be looking to tinker around the edges. The sort of quirks that Allardyce did such as the days off for a win, the psychological help, the yoga, etc. things that lessen the pressure.

So are Portsmouth & Derby, both have as many key injuries as us but they still manage to get results even when not playing well - points get you out of this league not possession stats or the process etc. unless things have changed and the EFL have now awarded a promotion place for process & performances ?

Snarky comments won't get us promoted either.

Process and performance have a high correlation with success. There's a reason the approach has been adopted by the likes of Southampton, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, etc.

We're not going to like it when its not working (Evatt's first 3 months in charge) and it's going to be frustrating after having success (now), but it's not exactly the call to arms to change everything.

[Prufrock]

I'm glad we're performance and process driven. That's how you get results.

Played well, didn't win. Annoying, but sometimes that's how it goes.

He's the best manager we've had since Sam for me. Close with Parky, but true. I'm enjoying the ride.

Process and performance is fine but there is more to winning a football game than that. There is the intangibles. The Gerrard dragging Liverpool through repeatedly for example even when they didn’t play well. The derby keeper making a save like that.

The problem is not that we focus on process and performance for me it’s that it isn’t working. Our form is not good. So maybe we should be looking at results and questioning them and be driven somewhat by that. If the insistence is ‘well we just trust the process’ it’s not worked.

We've been through this before but you're essentially talking about witchcraft and juju. Backwards projecting a combination of just good players playing well, and luck, into some magic ability. Where were Gerrard's intangibles when Demba Ba was strolling through on goal (answer - nestling on the Anfield turf).

Your second point is much more valid. I think we've been unlucky rather poor over the past 10-12 games, but there's certainly been a drop off in performances. It's their job to figure it out and improve.

We're clearly a lot closer to the autos this season, so it's progress again. Sometimes you have to hold up your hands that others (Pompey, and Derby with the budget of a minor European nation) have done a better job. It doesn't mean we've been a disaster (you could ask Charlton fans about that).

[Prufrock]

We're missing so many fixes that Evatt has put in place, CMG, Charles, Baxter, Johnston, N'lundulu, etc. that we've probably got the solution, it just isn't available. The tactics that we're playing now aren't dissimilar to the ones we were using with Baka and Bod up top where we seemed to score late goals all the time, perhaps its just a case of all the players believing at the same time, so with that in mind i'd be looking to tinker around the edges. The sort of quirks that Allardyce did such as the days off for a win, the psychological help, the yoga, etc. things that lessen the pressure.

So are Portsmouth & Derby, both have as many key injuries as us but they still manage to get results even when not playing well - points get you out of this league not possession stats or the process etc. unless things have changed and the EFL have now awarded a promotion place for process & performances ?

This argument willfully misunderstands what Evatt and others are saying. No-one is suggesting you get awards for performances. They're a means to an end, that being results. You can't just decide to get good results, sometimes you play badly and win, others you play well and lose. But you can control your own performance, and if you play well over a period of time, results will follow.

[Mar]

We're missing so many fixes that Evatt has put in place, CMG, Charles, Baxter, Johnston, N'lundulu, etc. that we've probably got the solution, it just isn't available. The tactics that we're playing now aren't dissimilar to the ones we were using with Baka and Bod up top where we seemed to score late goals all the time, perhaps its just a case of all the players believing at the same time, so with that in mind i'd be looking to tinker around the edges. The sort of quirks that Allardyce did such as the days off for a win, the psychological help, the yoga, etc. things that lessen the pressure.

So are Portsmouth & Derby, both have as many key injuries as us but they still manage to get results even when not playing well - points get you out of this league not possession stats or the process etc. unless things have changed and the EFL have now awarded a promotion place for process & performances ?

This argument willfully misunderstands what Evatt and others are saying. No-one is suggesting you get awards for performances. They're a means to an end, that being results. You can't just decide to get good results, sometimes you play badly and win, others you play well and lose. But you can control your own performance, and if you play well over a period of time, results will follow.

To that end, the 'control the controllables' line often touted by Evatt is probably a fair reflection of that. We're controlling what we can in order to maximise output from our performance, tracked via the likes of xG. It's not going to always pay off but the metrics are in place that reflect positively on what Evatt is doing, even if the layman can't see it when its not working.

[Mar]

Derby and Portsmouth have horrendous injury lists. So we aren’t alone there.

No, but you're looking for a solution that we've arguably already got.

The intangibles probably come down to character. People who when it really matters stand up to be counted. And teams that do the same. When you need something to get you out of a hole who do you look for. I think we’ve got a lack of those sorts of players. It’s not a lack of fight it’s a lack of leaders who absorb pressure and thrive under it. Who when it really matters produce a performance of the highest quality.

I don't get your logic of wanting to people to be good, confident, leaders on the pitch and thinking the solution is to call them crap and incompetent every week. It hardly breeds that mentality when fans do that.

My sense with this team is that when there is something slightly askew, slightly off they struggle. Whether that’s psychological or physical. I don’t know. But in early season when the pressure is off and the suns out and everyone is fit and we aren’t carrying knocks we look like a team that can’t lose. First bump when Wigan come and try and get in our faces and we fall apart.

Presumably, the players that tick the boxes that you're after are already the ones that have been picked up by bigger clubs with more financial muscle than us. We're looking for value for money. We can't sign the finished article and expect it not to cost a small fortune. We've got to turn what we've got into the finished article.

To me it’s hard to describe it but it’s flat track bully stuff. When we are content and settled and feel everything is right it’s complete dominance. But when that’s not the case we aren’t able to find other ways to get the results all too often. But my main point is we can’t just ignore that. We need to find fixes. Losing out in these games even when we’ve played ‘well’ is not a case of just waiting for our luck to turn. We have to be trying to fix what is happening and work out what is missing. You can say we did little wrong at Derby and I’d agree. But we only really for all our play created two chances and one was a half chance really the other produced a stunning save. And then conceded a soft one. The inability to force the issue and create chances for the possession we have and our ability to concede goals especially soft ones is not isolated to that game. It’s a running theme - through the second half of the season especially but it pre dates this season.

You say we cant just ignore that a lot, as if anyone is failing to see what you see. No-one is ignoring it, but the solution isn't to paint a false narrative that all is broken and that all our players are crap.

[officer_dibble]

Derby had 3 injuries during the game on Saturday alone - I think if that had happened to us it would have joined our list of excuses for not winning. They just got on with it.

[BWFC_Insane]

Derby and Portsmouth have horrendous injury lists. So we aren’t alone there.

No, but you're looking for a solution that we've arguably already got.

The intangibles probably come down to character. People who when it really matters stand up to be counted. And teams that do the same. When you need something to get you out of a hole who do you look for. I think we’ve got a lack of those sorts of players. It’s not a lack of fight it’s a lack of leaders who absorb pressure and thrive under it. Who when it really matters produce a performance of the highest quality.

I don't get your logic of wanting to people to be good, confident, leaders on the pitch and thinking the solution is to call them crap and incompetent every week. It hardly breeds that mentality when fans do that.

My sense with this team is that when there is something slightly askew, slightly off they struggle. Whether that’s psychological or physical. I don’t know. But in early season when the pressure is off and the suns out and everyone is fit and we aren’t carrying knocks we look like a team that can’t lose. First bump when Wigan come and try and get in our faces and we fall apart.

Presumably, the players that tick the boxes that you're after are already the ones that have been picked up by bigger clubs with more financial muscle than us. We're looking for value for money. We can't sign the finished article and expect it not to cost a small fortune. We've got to turn what we've got into the finished article.

To me it’s hard to describe it but it’s flat track bully stuff. When we are content and settled and feel everything is right it’s complete dominance. But when that’s not the case we aren’t able to find other ways to get the results all too often. But my main point is we can’t just ignore that. We need to find fixes. Losing out in these games even when we’ve played ‘well’ is not a case of just waiting for our luck to turn. We have to be trying to fix what is happening and work out what is missing. You can say we did little wrong at Derby and I’d agree. But we only really for all our play created two chances and one was a half chance really the other produced a stunning save. And then conceded a soft one. The inability to force the issue and create chances for the possession we have and our ability to concede goals especially soft ones is not isolated to that game. It’s a running theme - through the second half of the season especially but it pre dates this season.

You say we cant just ignore that a lot, as if anyone is failing to see what you see. No-one is ignoring it, but the solution isn't to paint a false narrative that all is broken and that all our players are crap.

I’m not the manager.

The thing is you say ‘we don’t just ignore it’ yet the same words are uttered game after game ‘if we keep up that level of performance we will be fine’…it doesn’t suggest we are trying to examine the reasons we keep not being fine. We just think that if we keep performing something will change.

But it hasn’t. It’s stayed the same. We still lose those games, and in the same manner. So what are we doing to change it or find a solution? How are we doing things differently to change the outcomes?

[TANGODANCER]

Derby had 3 injuries during the game on Saturday alone - I think if that had happened to us it would have joined our list of excuses for not winning. They just got on with it.

Sorry, Dibs, but there's no such thing as an excuse needed for not winning a football match where both sides are trying their best; Thinking there is is called human nature (amongst other things). It's the old story of putting it in little boxes that can be controlled like a chess board. It can't. Boringly perhaps, I resort to believing Shakespeare's "“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,/Than are dreamt of in your philosophy”...quote. ..because fate is a present tense thing that happens on the spot and the rest is just guesswork or history where even the bookmakers use the C,Y,A factor on everything. What excuse do you need for giving your best that's any different than the opponents? How do you classify a defender slipping and giving the ball away at a critical time or a rebound hitting a defender and resulting in a goal? You can't call these things excuses.

I know I might be a target for ass-kicking victim of the year, but stats and research are just another title for what is no more than educated guesswork when people are involved. Ask Devon Loch! Hey, horses are human, maybe even Jon-Bod's header. Could you call either an excuse? If not, what would you call them? ....Answers to Ian Evatt at B.W.F.C..

[Mar]

I’m not the manager.

The thing is you say ‘we don’t just ignore it’ yet the same words are uttered game after game ‘if we keep up that level of performance we will be fine’…it doesn’t suggest we are trying to examine the reasons we keep not being fine. We just think that if we keep performing something will change.

But it hasn’t. It’s stayed the same. We still lose those games, and in the same manner. So what are we doing to change it or find a solution? How are we doing things differently to change the outcomes?

I'm not the manager either, so those questions are probably be suited for the actual manager. Just because you can't identify the solution doesn't mean there's not one being put in place, successful or no.


As for improvement, last season we played Derby twice, 0-0 at home and lost 2-1 away, to get a total of 1 point.

At Home 0-0 draw:
9 shots, 2 on target (Us), 54% possession
11 shots, 2 on target (Them), 46% possession

Away 2-1 defeat:
6 shots, 3 on target (Us), 58% possession
9 shots, 5 on target (Them), 42% possession

This season, we played Derby twice and got 3 points:

At home 2-1 win:
20 shots, 6 on target (Us), 71% possession
10 shots, 1 on target (Them), 29% possession

Away 1-0 defeat:
6 shots, 3 on target (Us), 56% possession
10 shots, 3 on target (Them), 44% possession


Comparatively we've improved the number of shots at home and been more dominant and been on a par with our result away last season.

As for xG and xGA, here it is;

xG Home:
23-24: 1.53 (4th)
22-23: 1.45 (14th)

xG Away:
23-24: 1.42 (4th)
22-23: 1.32 (10th)

We've improved our xG both home and away.

xGA Home
23-24: 1.11 (19th)
22-23: 1.22 (14th)

xGA Away
23-24: 1.19 (21st)
22-23: 1.47 (18th)

We're conceding less, both home and away.


Long story short, we're doing better in terms of matches against Derby, and in terms of goals, shots, expected goals, expected goals against, etc.

But because there's a feeling of history repeating itself with the Wigan-esque result, we should fail to acknowledge the benefits that the system is bringing us?

Evatt can't manage off of feelings.

Derby was a game where we deserved more, but one bad set piece doesn't remove all the good things from that match. We should've won that match based upon the performance.

[Bertie Wooster]

XG this & XG that....is this what football has become !

We've won 4 out of the last 12, that's the stat that I'm more concerned about.

XG and possession hasn't helped us get the points we should have got since Xmas has it - what do points make ?

[Mar]

I know I might be a target for ass-kicking victim of the year, but stats and research are just another title for what is no more than educated guesswork when people are involved. Ask Devon Loch!

Not sure i'd call you a target for ass-kicking, but I would say that anyone thinking stats count for nothing is not looking at a big enough sample set. Anything can happen in a one off, Devon Loch's race was just that.

[Bertie Wooster]

I've no doubt that we had more possession & a better XG than the opposition in all of the last 8 away games - however we have won
only 1.

Yes 1 win out of the last 8 away games - its ok though as we have process & performance.

[BWFC_Insane]

I’m not the manager.

The thing is you say ‘we don’t just ignore it’ yet the same words are uttered game after game ‘if we keep up that level of performance we will be fine’…it doesn’t suggest we are trying to examine the reasons we keep not being fine. We just think that if we keep performing something will change.

But it hasn’t. It’s stayed the same. We still lose those games, and in the same manner. So what are we doing to change it or find a solution? How are we doing things differently to change the outcomes?

I'm not the manager either, so those questions are probably be suited for the actual manager. Just because you can't identify the solution doesn't mean there's not one being put in place, successful or no.


As for improvement, last season we played Derby twice, 0-0 at home and lost 2-1 away, to get a total of 1 point.

At Home 0-0 draw:
9 shots, 2 on target (Us), 54% possession
11 shots, 2 on target (Them), 46% possession

Away 2-1 defeat:
6 shots, 3 on target (Us), 58% possession
9 shots, 5 on target (Them), 42% possession

This season, we played Derby twice and got 3 points:

At home 2-1 win:
20 shots, 6 on target (Us), 71% possession
10 shots, 1 on target (Them), 29% possession

Away 1-0 defeat:
6 shots, 3 on target (Us), 56% possession
10 shots, 3 on target (Them), 44% possession


Comparatively we've improved the number of shots at home and been more dominant and been on a par with our result away last season.

As for xG and xGA, here it is;

xG Home:
23-24: 1.53 (4th)
22-23: 1.45 (14th)

xG Away:
23-24: 1.42 (4th)
22-23: 1.32 (10th)

We've improved our xG both home and away.

xGA Home
23-24: 1.11 (19th)
22-23: 1.22 (14th)

xGA Away
23-24: 1.19 (21st)
22-23: 1.47 (18th)

We're conceding less, both home and away.


Long story short, we're doing better in terms of matches against Derby, and in terms of goals, shots, expected goals, expected goals against, etc.

But because there's a feeling of history repeating itself with the Wigan-esque result, we should fail to acknowledge the benefits that the system is bringing us?

Evatt can't manage off of feelings.

Derby was a game where we deserved more, but one bad set piece doesn't remove all the good things from that match. We should've won that match based upon the performance.

That’s the exact issue, I’m a huge believer in data. You have to use it. You have to understand how to use it also.

Our form is mid table. Our form since Christmas is way off the pace. Form as in actual results.

You can throw all the data at that you want but what you can’t do is continually just shrug off the failings as ‘well the performance deserved more’. Thats not how football works. We lost. They won. And in an isolated game that’s fine, but it’s not isolated, we are 13th in the form league. So it’s not ‘one off games’.

You can cite any statistic you want in the world but I think it’s distorting it. Saturday according to your stats we had the same number of target as them and fewer shots overall. That doesn’t to me equate to ‘well we were just unlucky it will come’. It suggests there is a reason that sort of result keeps happening.

There is a reason it’s not just ‘ball wouldn’t go in for us’. We aren’t doing enough. Same as at Wigan. We are conceding too many and not scoring goals in tight games. You can stat that as much as you want but the bottom line is it’s the reality.

[Mar]

XG this & XG that....is this what football has become !

We've won 4 out of the last 12, that's the stat that I'm more concerned about.

XG and possession hasn't helped us get the points we should have got since Xmas has it - what do points make ?

How would you track how well we are doing? Feelings?

Looking at xG and xGA is a business way of monitoring progression. Allardyce was lauded for being ahead based upon stats and metrics and approach and Evatt's doing similar things.

Winning 4 out of the last 12 is very short sighted, as is looking solely on the results. The performances have warranted more than we have got. Majority of the time we'd be seeing better results, the stats back that up aswell (those with a higher xG tend to score more than those that dont).

[BWFC_Insane]

I've no doubt that we had more possession & a better XG than the opposition in all of the last 8 away games - however we have won
only 1.

Yes 1 win out of the last 8 away games - its ok though as we have process & performance.

When your proxy metrics aren’t predicting performance then you have to question why. In any business. Either the metrics are not the right ones or some are missing or there is a gap between the metric and reality that you need to plug.

[Bertie Wooster]

XG this & XG that....is this what football has become !

We've won 4 out of the last 12, that's the stat that I'm more concerned about.

XG and possession hasn't helped us get the points we should have got since Xmas has it - what do points make ?

How would you track how well we are doing? Feelings?

Looking at xG and xGA is a business way of monitoring progression. Allardyce was lauded for being ahead based upon stats and metrics and approach and Evatt's doing similar things.

Winning 4 out of the last 12 is very short sighted, as is looking solely on the results. The performances have warranted more than we have got. Majority of the time we'd be seeing better results, the stats back that up aswell (those with a higher xG tend to score more than those that dont).

Results.

[Mar]

That’s the exact issue, I’m a huge believer in data. You have to use it. You have to understand how to use it also.

You say you are a huge believer in data, but you never use it to back up any of your arguments. All I see is feelings and discrediting stats based upon feelings.

Our form is mid table. Our form since Christmas is way off the pace. Form as in actual results.

You can throw all the data at that you want but what you can’t do is continually just shrug off the failings as ‘well the performance deserved more’. Thats not how football works. We lost. They won. And in an isolated game that’s fine, but it’s not isolated, we are 13th in the form league. So it’s not ‘one off games’.

No, its not one off games. I'm fairly confident we've experienced issues lately in terms of getting the ball to the wingbacks as well as getting decent delivery. Our xG against Derby (A) shows that, we had plenty of build up but very little xG's comparative to Derby, which goes to show we're not really delivering aswell as we'd like from out wide. It's just harder to get data based upon the build up out wide.

You can cite any statistic you want in the world but I think it’s distorting it. Saturday according to your stats we had the same number of target as them and fewer shots overall. That doesn’t to me equate to ‘well we were just unlucky it will come’. It suggests there is a reason that sort of result keeps happening.

There is a reason it’s not just ‘ball wouldn’t go in for us’. We aren’t doing enough. Same as at Wigan. We are conceding too many and not scoring goals in tight games. You can stat that as much as you want but the bottom line is it’s the reality.

I go back to the issues out wide. Derby and Wigan both consistently dealt with threats out wide and frustrated us to few opportunities. They seemed to know what to do to prevent us getting crosses in. It's what good defences do. We struggled to break a low block last season aswell. Stats however suggest we're generally better at scoring against those sorts of teams this season.

[Mar]

XG this & XG that....is this what football has become !

We've won 4 out of the last 12, that's the stat that I'm more concerned about.

XG and possession hasn't helped us get the points we should have got since Xmas has it - what do points make ?

How would you track how well we are doing? Feelings?

Looking at xG and xGA is a business way of monitoring progression. Allardyce was lauded for being ahead based upon stats and metrics and approach and Evatt's doing similar things.

Winning 4 out of the last 12 is very short sighted, as is looking solely on the results. The performances have warranted more than we have got. Majority of the time we'd be seeing better results, the stats back that up aswell (those with a higher xG tend to score more than those that dont).

Results.

Okay, now apply that same logic at the start of the match (or 15 mins in if you would) and see how you get on.

[Bertie Wooster]

Winning 4 out of the last 12 is very short sighted, as is looking solely on the results. The performances have warranted more than we have got. Majority of the time we'd be seeing better results, the stats back that up aswell (those with a higher xG tend to score more than those that dont).

I honestly thought that the aim in football was about winning games of football, so that's where I've been going wrong all these years !