Rising in Wembley's Glow: A Bolton Wanderers Tale - Bolton vs Oxford. 18th May 2024, 4.15pm

[Worthy4England]

EIEIEIO...COYWM

[TANGODANCER]

Stonewall penalty for me!

Oh, I'm not saying it wasn't a penalty, just tough it happened. Serious stuff, but one comic moments was when an Ox lad took one on the chin and three pairs of Posh arms shot skyward.

So, there we have it; Bolton Wanderers v Oxford United for the laurel wreath.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Hats off that the Happy Shop has done a Pollockesque (Jackson not Jamie) T-shirt for the new chant.

https://www.bwfcdirect.co.uk/wembley/playoff-final/

[BWFC_Insane]

EIEIEIO...COYWM

Good lord that’s guaranteed Oxford to go up!

[irie Cee Bee]

Never expected to be facing Oxford in the final but feeling a lot better about this than preparing to face Posh. Oxford will feel they have exceeded expectations to get there and will be more relaxed. We are feeling disappointed for not getting up automatically, and will be tense if its 0-0 after 60 mins in the 2nd half and panic. Nonetheless, its ours to lose.

[BWFC_Insane]

Darren Ferguson showing his usual horrendous lack of class. Battered them, they didnt deserve to go through, Oxford just got lucky.

It’s not what I watched Darren. You had a lot of the ball. Didn’t do much with it.

[The_Gun]

Didn’t watch the game as I was playing football, but Oxford would’ve been my preferred final opponent pre-match. Having said that, after yesterday I’m not at all confident that we’re going to prevail.

[Worthy4England]

EIEIEIO...COYWM

Good lord that’s guaranteed Oxford to go up!

It wasn't a prediction!

[TANGODANCER]

Darren Ferguson showing his usual horrendous lack of class. Battered them, they didnt deserve to go through, Oxford just got lucky.
It’s not what I watched Darren. You had a lot of the ball. Didn’t do much with it.

It's about scoring goals Darren. Nice football gets no cigars. Deserve has nothing to do with it, as we well know. Take it on the chin man.

[Mar]

Darren Ferguson showing his usual horrendous lack of class. Battered them, they didnt deserve to go through, Oxford just got lucky.
It’s not what I watched Darren. You had a lot of the ball. Didn’t do much with it.

It's about scoring goals Darren. Nice football gets no cigars. Deserve has nothing to do with it, as we well know. Take it on the chin man.

Stats wise would back up Ferguson somewhat.

8 on target, 9 off target compared to 1 and 4 for Oxford. 69% possession, 14 corner kicks, 37 throw ins.

Sounds like Oxford did a job of frustrating Peterborough and killing any momentum that Peterborough might get.

[BWFC_Insane]

Darren Ferguson showing his usual horrendous lack of class. Battered them, they didnt deserve to go through, Oxford just got lucky.
It’s not what I watched Darren. You had a lot of the ball. Didn’t do much with it.

It's about scoring goals Darren. Nice football gets no cigars. Deserve has nothing to do with it, as we well know. Take it on the chin man.

Stats wise would back up Ferguson somewhat.

8 on target, 9 off target compared to 1 and 4 for Oxford. 69% possession, 14 corner kicks, 37 throw ins.

Sounds like Oxford did a job of frustrating Peterborough and killing any momentum that Peterborough might get.

Peterborough created nothing if note until the late scrambles.

Oxford did a job on them and Ferguson should some shown more class. I worry about overconfidence now tbh. Oxford will be very hard to beat in the final and as a few have noted our performances of late generally have not been great compared to theirs.

No room at all for any complacency we have to be at our absolute best to have a chance.

[Mar]

Darren Ferguson showing his usual horrendous lack of class. Battered them, they didnt deserve to go through, Oxford just got lucky.
It’s not what I watched Darren. You had a lot of the ball. Didn’t do much with it.

It's about scoring goals Darren. Nice football gets no cigars. Deserve has nothing to do with it, as we well know. Take it on the chin man.

Stats wise would back up Ferguson somewhat.

8 on target, 9 off target compared to 1 and 4 for Oxford. 69% possession, 14 corner kicks, 37 throw ins.

Sounds like Oxford did a job of frustrating Peterborough and killing any momentum that Peterborough might get.

Peterborough created nothing if note until the late scrambles.

Oxford did a job on them and Ferguson should some shown more class. I worry about overconfidence now tbh. Oxford will be very hard to beat in the final and as a few have noted our performances of late generally have not been great compared to theirs.

No room at all for any complacency we have to be at our absolute best to have a chance.

Definitely, 17 shots doesn't really mean much given that they could just be hopeful half way line efforts and the stats would still show that number. Didn't like Chris Eagle's shooting from outside the box for that exact reason, its just turning over possession. So as well as Peterborough were doing last night, if they're turning the ball over easily to the opposition then it's likely to play into Oxford's hands.

[Worthy4England]

There's a big step between confident and complacent.

I doubt I'd have much to compare between our recent performances and theirs, but we should absolutely view them as the team that's got every bit as far as us and knock outs don't give chances to come back next game (at this point).

I want us to be confident. Nervous may well lead to as equally bad a place as complacency.

[BWFC_Insane]

There's a big step between confident and complacent.

I doubt I'd have much to compare between our recent performances and theirs, but we should absolutely view them as the team that's got every bit as far as us and knock outs don't give chances to come back next game (at this point).

I want us to be confident. Nervous may well lead to as equally bad a place as complacency.

Absolutely on the confident and focussed thing. Just not complacent.

Here is a stat though. Last 6 games we have conceded 10. Oxford have conceded 4. We’ve scored 13 and they’ve scored 10. Included in that is their 5-0 win against Peterborough.

So we need to be very aware that they are a side who aren’t conceding many. Capable of scoring goals - they don’t have the same firepower we do for sure. But defensively on current form…..they are much much better than us.

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, but Posh rested a load as we were up next...edit: think that was the game they made 8 changes?

[dave the minion]

if you drag in the 2 before the last 6, its even worse as they also won them both 4-0......
(although if you bring in another few games, they were well beaten 5-0 by a certain team.....)

Don't worry though. i'll be reet. We'll shit 'em....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yeah, but Posh rested a load as we were up next...edit: think that was the game they made 8 changes?

No, that was another game a bit later in the season, mate.

Curious though, Oxford. As I say, after that 5-0 walloping at Bolton, Buckingham tweaked his midfield (from "two 6s and an 8" to "a 6 and two 8s"), and then ent into a run of four games against drop-dodgers. They won at Vale, drew at Shrewsbury, flattened Fleetwood 4-0 and battered Burton by the same score. Then they pummelled Peterborough, the weekend after Posh's Wembley win, 5-0. Fair f*cks.

Since then, scorelines have been significantly less impressive. They had a Tuesday-Friday double of home games yielding one point - losing to Lincoln and drawing with Stevenage, each in the sort of fashion that would drive some Bolton fans mad: against Lincoln they had 66% possession and 17 shots but only 5 on target; v Stevenage it was 65%, 25 shots, 6 on target. The only goal from those 42 attempts came from a penalty.

That meant that when Lincoln won the next day Oxford were out of the play-offs on GD with one game to go. That game was at midtable Exeter and Oxford won 2-1 (40% possession, 15 shots with 5 on target) - goals from a high turnover and a penalty. It was enough to overtake Lincoln, who lost to champions Pompey, and Barnsley.

So Posh it was in the playoffs. Won at home with a header from a corner – again, minority possession, 8 shots (4 on target). Away, backs to wall against a Posh who flattered to deceive, levelled through a penalty which was their only shot on target (30% possession, if you're tracking it).

Congrats to Oxford for finding ways to win, which is after all the aim. But while they're not the team we beat 5-0, they're also not quite the team who ripped others apart in early April. Last five games they've scored five goals – three penalties, one header from a corner, so just one in open play. The fact it was a high turnover should be noted - they can punish any defender sloppy on the ball - but we can certainly take succour from the fact they haven't been scoring for fun, or even through desperation.

We can do it. COYWM

[Worthy4England]

Cheers mate.

There are no unbeatable teams in the play-offs. Most are there because their abilities are a bit more patchy than the top 2 and a bit less patchy than the team that finished 7th.

I also think we're better on the front foot than ultra cautious scrap. I don't think we set out to defend a lead on Tuesday, but our average positions looked a chunk deeper than maybe typical, to my untrained eye on whoscored...

Just play our 100% best game, confidently, do our individual jobs to the absolute best. If you do that and still come out the wrong side, it's fair play to the oppo.

[officer_dibble]

Sounds like VAR will be in use.

[BWFC_Insane]

Not saying that we will lose I merely want us to show Oxford the respect we should afford them. They have the ‘finished 6th’ momentum and the way they nullified Peterborough was the way some teams have had success against us this season.

On the plus side I think if we play at our best and take our chances we will win. And I don’t think that was a guarantee against Peterborough who have a lot of dangers when on their day they can hurt you.