Can Albion put us to the Sword? Home to Burton Sat Oct 19th 3-0' clock/.

[TANGODANCER]

Still four days before any football, but time to think ahead.

"Albion", the old name for Great Britain and fictitiously a magical sword back in the days of yore. Currently, the name of a Burton on Trent football club propping up League One of the Football leagues and due to cross swords with the mighty Whites come Saturday next. All things considered it might look like a foregone conclusion cake-walk, but then, we know all about those. Sitting in less than impressive 14th spot we are on a bit of a balancing act on the positional see-saw before a match we really cannot afford to lose. Few points separate a bunch of the peleton of chasing clubs after the top enders, but we really do need to move on like now.

No mercy then and lets send those Brewers home with half-full glasses. To horse and at em !

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't want to say must-win, but let's just say it will be very very ugly if we don't. Quite frankly, they owe the home fans.

Home games this season:
• Mansfield (Cup) - D 1-1, won on pens
• Wrexham - D 0-0
• Exeter - L 0-2
• Huddersfield - L 0-4
• Reading - W 5-2
• Shrewsbury - D 2-2
• Villa (Cup) - D 1-1, lost on pens

That's an absolute vale of tears - one, maybe two satisfactory results (if you count beating Mansfield on pengies as satisfactory). Even under normalt circumstances they would be hugely outweighed by at least three howlingly bad ones (Exeter, Hudds, Villa) - four really if you count have to claw back parity vs Shrewsbury. And these very much aren't normal circumstances - chasing 2ppg (most of which must surely come from home games), doubts over the manager from the very off, doubts noisily magnified as the season has lurched along.

He needs to start winning games. After this we travel to Birmingham in midweek then welcome Peterborough. It would be criminal to not get three points from hosting the second-bottom team. But that's what we said before Shrewsbury.

[Worthy4England]

Those 3, Stevenage and Stockport (a) prior to the next International Break? Feels pretty pivotal. But who knows where the Board are on it?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Those 3, Stevenage and Stockport (a) prior to the next International Break? Feels pretty pivotal. But who knows where the Board are on it?

Aye (on both). Walsall and Fleetwood in the cups either side of Stockport, but he knows what his task is.

How many points do we need from those 15 available to get to 1.66ppg (usually enough for 6th place) or 2ppg (2nd) by the time Lee Carsley saves Tommy Tuchel from poppy-rage?

[Worthy4England]

Just the full 15 to get to 2 ppg...

13 would be pretty close.

Surely no one is targeting 6th? (Being proper passive aggresive)

[officer_dibble]

Clean sweep? Wins at Birmingham and Stockport? One defeat for 12 which would surely be considered good enough? I’ll say we’ll get 8 points, two wins, two draws and a defeat. That’s got to include 3 against these feck* though. God it’s a depressing fixture Burton Albion.

[TANGODANCER]

Toal injured, but Gethin Jones available. Snakes and ladders again.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Just the full 15 to get to 2 ppg...

13 would be pretty close.

Surely no one is targeting 6th? (Being proper passive aggresive)

Absolute minimum target, because 6th could get us promoted, 7th can't. Right now we're 14th.

I doubt being 6th would win over his doubters, but I'm not entirely sure being promoted would either. Hey-ho - that's the target, that's the job.

[Worthy4England]

Understand 6th gives you a dog in the race. I'd take promoted from a play-off berth. That said, if that was our trajectory come the next IB, he should already be gone. We're way past "overtime" now and we need to be ahead of the curve to allow for "the odd blip" not behind it playing mathematical catch up.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Understand 6th gives you a dog in the race. I'd take promoted from a play-off berth. That said, if that was our trajectory come the next IB, he should already be gone. We're way past "overtime" now and we need to be ahead of the curve to allow for "the odd blip" not behind it playing mathematical catch up.

Interesting. Are you saying you think he needs to be above 6th after the next 5 games? (That could mean "for Sharon to be happy" and/or "for Worthy to be happy".) I'm not asking to 'catch you out' - genuinely interested, because I don't know how I feel.

We're currently 2pts off 6th but another 2 off 4th and then another 2 off 2nd. At the top, the pack is spreading out, whereas down in the long grass where we are, there's loads of teams in the way. Which is no excuse or reason not to fire him if we stay down there - uite the opposite. We are at the moment resolutely an "also-ran".

We're on 1.55 ppg, 6th usually needs 1.66ppg. Had we beaten Shrewsbury we'd have been 8th on 1.77ppg and still looking upwards. But we didn't, and that's the problem. (Well, one of them. )

[Worthy4England]

Understand 6th gives you a dog in the race. I'd take promoted from a play-off berth. That said, if that was our trajectory come the next IB, he should already be gone. We're way past "overtime" now and we need to be ahead of the curve to allow for "the odd blip" not behind it playing mathematical catch up.

Interesting. Are you saying you think he needs to be above 6th after the next 5 games? (That could mean "for Sharon to be happy" and/or "for Worthy to be happy".) I'm not asking to 'catch you out' - genuinely interested, because I don't know how I feel.

We're currently 2pts off 6th but another 2 off 4th and then another 2 off 2nd. At the top, the pack is spreading out, whereas down in the long grass where we are, there's loads of teams in the way. Which is no excuse or reason not to fire him if we stay down there - uite the opposite. We are at the moment resolutely an "also-ran".

We're on 1.55 ppg, 6th usually needs 1.66ppg. Had we beaten Shrewsbury we'd have been 8th on 1.77ppg and still looking upwards. But we didn't, and that's the problem. (Well, one of them. )

I suspect were we 6th, some folks less inclined to test the water, would probably be appeased. I'm not overly interested in talking about 6th - last year, year before good with it - our target is 2ppg. He has to go at 2.11 ppg over the rest of the season to do that - he's never done that with us over such a prolonged period.

We know that by the end October, the top 6 are typically set, in at least 5 of the places - so in that sense, 6th would be on target for "top 6" with a bit of an area of doubt. But a slip from there and you can easily end up 7th (or maybe 4th). My concern with playing catch up is we know any season will have ups and downs as we travel along. I'm not sure what we've seen has been just one of those downs - it's been pretty "typical" of our form since Jan. We know that as it gets colder we will likely lose a few to injury, we'll still have off days etc. etc. so you look like you're catching up - yet maybe you don't - you spin 4 wins and maybe the football Gods don't smile on game 5 and you lose it. I think we'll still have odd blips.

Our points have come from teams in 2nd (our only point v a team above us) 17th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd. So there's a reasonable case to suggest we've only beaten (or drawn), with teams currently in or around relegation slots. Our PPG doesn't really take that into account. We've had probably the kindest start you could wish for vs the league table. We have 1 point v teams in the top 9 of which we've played 4 - but only 1 out of the top 6 and three of those games were at home. We've not played our local bogey teams.

In short, I see the possibility of plenty more we can lose or draw, over the remainder. Which is why, for me, he needs to have credit in the bank, rather than playing catch-up.

Edit: Sorry not answered the main question. Yes, i think he needs to be above 6th.

[TANGODANCER]

A blatant N,S.Sherlock statement, but no time for indecision here or a repetition of recent performances. We have to grab this one by the curlies from the off and get a couple of quick goals without conceding soft goals. Easier said than done? well we really don't have options; we must win or see the ass end of the field disappearing like Holcombe Hunt in full cry, and anybody not prepared to give 110% to achieve it should not be on the team sheet. It musn't be just a one-off either, Birmingham or no Birmingham. It's wake up time at Camp Toughsheet. Tally Ho.....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Worthy - all fair. I suspect if we are 6th then the important voters in the plush seats will stick rather than twist. But you have a good point about the teams we’ve beaten… other also-fans or worse. That’s the job again Saturday, but thereafter the tasks stiffen - and as you also correctly note, Evatt’s running out of spare “off days” in terms of maths as well as PR.

[Mar]

Good way of reflecting on things there Worthy.

The whole situation has stunk out the place since January and we need a change in narrative and get that rallying cry that will give us the edge we need. I suspect that we're firefighting nerves at home and are a little bit more relaxed away.

Not sure what the catalyst for getting the ball rolling with that will be. A couple of good performances at home and a fighting performance against the Brum might just help.

That first season under Evatt came good when the ball got rolling. The Baka-Bod combo gave us the feeling we were gonna score last minute goals and push for a win. At the minute the feeling is seemingly it's not going to work out, despite us adding better quality firepower.

I think with the return of CMG, Jones, Forrester, etc. we should have enough to be able to get us heading in the right direction, but we've really got to start picking up the results against the top teams.

[dave the minion]

It'll be reet. We'll shit 'em

[officer_dibble]

Doesn’t seem to be any update on Tutu from what I’ve read. His 6 weeks are up. Would be nice to get some better quality from wide areas, and not have to rely on Dempsey positioning himself out there like he did in the second half against Shrewsbury.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Doesn’t seem to be any update on Tutu from what I’ve read. His 6 weeks are up. Would be nice to get some better quality from wide areas, and not have to rely on Dempsey positioning himself out there like he did in the second half against Shrewsbury.

Ilesy piece yesterday said "it has not yet been revealed whether wing-back Jordi Osei-Tutu is back in training [...] with the six-week estimate initially given by medics now up."

Baxter back on the grass today, so interesting to see if he's back or Southwood keeps the shirt. First of five games in a fortnight.

And one other thing to watch. With Evatt marooned in the stands, and the new techncial-area protocol saying only one member of the coaching staff is allowed to patrol the front of the area... will it be longtime sidekick Atherton or new boy Crainey stepping forward?

[HMX]

It'll be reet. We'll shit 'em

Agreed. 3-1

[BorsdaneWhite]

Not normally an optimist, but I fancy us battering them today. 5-1.

[officer_dibble]

I’m forecasting 1-1 with a red card as well.