The Politics Thread

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Who will you be voting for?

Labour
13
41%
Conservatives
12
38%
Liberal Democrats
2
6%
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
0
No votes
Green Party
3
9%
Plaid Cymru
0
No votes
Other
1
3%
Planet Hobo
1
3%
 
Total votes: 32

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Oct 30, 2024 2:37 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:12 am
What with a budget due and most signs suggesting it's going to be a shitshow and MPs thinking it's ok to smack constituents. I think Labour are going to have to explain how they've divided "working people" from errr "working people." It's been an inauspicious start for me...
Remove the right wing tabloid tittle tattle and I think they are doing it right. Their comms as in the election is god awful. Starmer is very good in many circumstances speaking but in others I do wonder if he was briefed by a twelve year old.

But the substance? It’s good imho. Proof in the pudding of course. They have five years to improve public services and fix the economy. Talk is cheap…or in this case not. But if they don’t manage to do so sufficiently then this country is finished and I’m moving abroad.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:14 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 2:37 pm
Worthy4England wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:12 am
What with a budget due and most signs suggesting it's going to be a shitshow and MPs thinking it's ok to smack constituents. I think Labour are going to have to explain how they've divided "working people" from errr "working people." It's been an inauspicious start for me...
Remove the right wing tabloid tittle tattle and I think they are doing it right. Their comms as in the election is god awful. Starmer is very good in many circumstances speaking but in others I do wonder if he was briefed by a twelve year old.

But the substance? It’s good imho. Proof in the pudding of course. They have five years to improve public services and fix the economy. Talk is cheap…or in this case not. But if they don’t manage to do so sufficiently then this country is finished and I’m moving abroad.
I'll be back when I've had chance to read the detail, although it sure isn't the quick-fix "Let's just say we'll do growth, whilst cutting taxes and having zero plans for growth."

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:31 pm

Need to see the detail myself, but on the surface it still feels more in the tinkering round the edges than radical change column.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:22 pm

Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:31 pm
Need to see the detail myself, but on the surface it still feels more in the tinkering round the edges than radical change column.
Not sure I agree on that. It’s a pretty fundamental shift. Not perfect for me but I think perfect went out the possibility window a long time ago.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:39 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:22 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:31 pm
Need to see the detail myself, but on the surface it still feels more in the tinkering round the edges than radical change column.
Not sure I agree on that. It’s a pretty fundamental shift. Not perfect for me but I think perfect went out the possibility window a long time ago.
So, we have a freeze for car drivers but an increase for bus users. Not quite the progressive green policy.
NI increases that will hit small businesses disproportionately, along with another fairly major hike in minimum wage
I'm not seeing much for the 0.1% to worry about. Not much that is moving the dial meaningfully on poverty.
Growth still seems to be predicated on the market that has largely been more interested in share buy backs and executive pay that investment. I'll not be holding my breath on that happening anytime soon.

Don't get me wrong, its an improvement on the Tories, but it isn't radical and it isn't going after wealth, more the easier to target middle. Forgive me for paucity of enthusiasm...

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Abdoulaye's Twin » Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:46 pm

Just to add, I'm all for dragging up low wages, but it needs to be planned over time to enable smaller businesses to keep up. Cost pressures of recent years, along with consumer spending power and expectation of what something should cost is making small business deeply unprofitable. In 2018 the minimum wage was £7.50. Currently it is £11.44 and soon to be £12.21. Lets put it this way, if I'd put my prices up in line with that over the same time period you'd all be on bread and dripping again.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:01 pm

Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:39 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:22 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:31 pm
Need to see the detail myself, but on the surface it still feels more in the tinkering round the edges than radical change column.
Not sure I agree on that. It’s a pretty fundamental shift. Not perfect for me but I think perfect went out the possibility window a long time ago.
So, we have a freeze for car drivers but an increase for bus users. Not quite the progressive green policy.
NI increases that will hit small businesses disproportionately, along with another fairly major hike in minimum wage
I'm not seeing much for the 0.1% to worry about. Not much that is moving the dial meaningfully on poverty.
Growth still seems to be predicated on the market that has largely been more interested in share buy backs and executive pay that investment. I'll not be holding my breath on that happening anytime soon.

Don't get me wrong, its an improvement on the Tories, but it isn't radical and it isn't going after wealth, more the easier to target middle. Forgive me for paucity of enthusiasm...
The thing is that analysis shows the lowest earners are biggest gainers and higher earners are taking the brunt. But people always think the people taking the brunt are them.

There is some relief for small businesses too via employment allowance changes that will shield the smallest businesses from the NI changes and indeed reduce their NI bills.

But the burden had to fall somewhere and realistically there’s no magic wealth tax that raises the revenue whilst only hitting billionaires. It doesn’t exist. Inspire of all the people who pretend it does.

Loads of money raised for public services. Loads for investment. It has to work but previously labours plan was bidenomics without the stimulus. Now they have the stimulus. Which I do think is their only real option. I’d have preferred them to just reverse the NI cuts the Tories had made tbh rather than claw it back off employer contributions. But then that would have been a tax on lower paid people - and there is the political manifesto issue too.

Fundamentally they’ve had people screaming at them for a year saying they had to raise taxes and borrowing to restore public services or they’d be a disgrace to the Labour name. They’ve done that. So I’m in the
‘Now you’ve got to deliver’ camp. Bit like Evatt. Though they’ve not had several historic goes.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Hoboh » Wed Oct 30, 2024 7:59 pm

For your average Joe, it wasn't too bad, for small and medium businesses, I wouldn't hold my breath.
Borrowing for growth is one thing, if it gets there and not merely swallowed up by unions or simply tipped into the NHS abyss. Some folk will feel the pinch, landlords and those from families with any sort of substantial capital.
AT the reference to not good for their green agenda gets completely wiped out if you look at VED rates for new ICE cars compared to EV.
I note little of any substance was referenced about irregular migration and costs and to be honest, I'm far from happy about the £3 billion heading to Zelensky every year until.... given they are putting less into our defence.
Overall, the majority escaped in your face rises in this budget but I suspect inflation and price rises will eventually be felt.
The problem will be, if this doesn't work out, we are the next targets, we'll see.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Oct 31, 2024 10:35 am

Hoboh wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 7:59 pm
For your average Joe, it wasn't too bad, for small and medium businesses, I wouldn't hold my breath.
Borrowing for growth is one thing, if it gets there and not merely swallowed up by unions or simply tipped into the NHS abyss. Some folk will feel the pinch, landlords and those from families with any sort of substantial capital.
AT the reference to not good for their green agenda gets completely wiped out if you look at VED rates for new ICE cars compared to EV.
I note little of any substance was referenced about irregular migration and costs and to be honest, I'm far from happy about the £3 billion heading to Zelensky every year until.... given they are putting less into our defence.
Overall, the majority escaped in your face rises in this budget but I suspect inflation and price rises will eventually be felt.
The problem will be, if this doesn't work out, we are the next targets, we'll see.
I think this is probably a decent reflection Hobes.

SMB's get some relief, through business rate capping and the like, but nothing that will "improve their lot" - I'd also be worried about the lowering of the NI Cap + the increase in NMW will tip the balance for some businesses - they should have had an exemption threshold on the NI element. Our local, for example, hires 16-18 year olds - why because they're cheaper. This isn't a guy that's spending 6 months in the Maldives - he's barely breaking the surface as costs energy, product (booze and food) have all been hit hard by inflation. Small/Mediums need more help imo.

Direct personal tax, pretty neutral.

To Insano's point about there being no magic wealth tax - I agree - first and foremost because people are able to hide it. To get to it, there needs to be more co-ordinated efforts probably with US/UK at the spearhead, to continue to improve sight-lines into tax free hidey holes. I mean just start changing tax laws so that Amazon can't have the benefit of our market, whilst also having the benefit of the lowest cost offshore tax options.

£13.6bn (in payouts relating to Horizon IT and (mainly - £11bn) blood scandal) - eye-watering number. Not saying it's a wrong number - just that it's fcuking big.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Oct 31, 2024 10:44 am

Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:46 pm
Just to add, I'm all for dragging up low wages, but it needs to be planned over time to enable smaller businesses to keep up. Cost pressures of recent years, along with consumer spending power and expectation of what something should cost is making small business deeply unprofitable. In 2018 the minimum wage was £7.50. Currently it is £11.44 and soon to be £12.21. Lets put it this way, if I'd put my prices up in line with that over the same time period you'd all be on bread and dripping again.
I think that's a real problem mate, whilst I agree there should be a NMW. I think they've underestimated how close smaller businesses are to staying afloat, after a series of system shocks. The volume of small business bankruptcies are at 10 year highs. They needed to do more in this area, for me, and improve the situation rather than try and keep it neutral or worse off...When SMB's go bankrupt, there's a cost to the taxpayer as we're now paying unemployment...

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:04 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:01 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:39 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:22 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:31 pm
Need to see the detail myself, but on the surface it still feels more in the tinkering round the edges than radical change column.
Not sure I agree on that. It’s a pretty fundamental shift. Not perfect for me but I think perfect went out the possibility window a long time ago.
So, we have a freeze for car drivers but an increase for bus users. Not quite the progressive green policy.
NI increases that will hit small businesses disproportionately, along with another fairly major hike in minimum wage
I'm not seeing much for the 0.1% to worry about. Not much that is moving the dial meaningfully on poverty.
Growth still seems to be predicated on the market that has largely been more interested in share buy backs and executive pay that investment. I'll not be holding my breath on that happening anytime soon.

Don't get me wrong, its an improvement on the Tories, but it isn't radical and it isn't going after wealth, more the easier to target middle. Forgive me for paucity of enthusiasm...
The thing is that analysis shows the lowest earners are biggest gainers and higher earners are taking the brunt. But people always think the people taking the brunt are them.

There is some relief for small businesses too via employment allowance changes that will shield the smallest businesses from the NI changes and indeed reduce their NI bills.

But the burden had to fall somewhere and realistically there’s no magic wealth tax that raises the revenue whilst only hitting billionaires. It doesn’t exist. Inspire of all the people who pretend it does.

Loads of money raised for public services. Loads for investment. It has to work but previously labours plan was bidenomics without the stimulus. Now they have the stimulus. Which I do think is their only real option. I’d have preferred them to just reverse the NI cuts the Tories had made tbh rather than claw it back off employer contributions. But then that would have been a tax on lower paid people - and there is the political manifesto issue too.

Fundamentally they’ve had people screaming at them for a year saying they had to raise taxes and borrowing to restore public services or they’d be a disgrace to the Labour name. They’ve done that. So I’m in the
‘Now you’ve got to deliver’ camp. Bit like Evatt. Though they’ve not had several historic goes.
To point, the first. They needed to stop shuffling deckchairs and look at widening how and where from, we take tax. They've done some of this, but nowhere near enough. If I have 100 taxpayers and I need more tax, then sure I could move it from low to high or high to low, but I still have 100 taxpayers. You get a bit more or a bit less (in country economy terms) from the same captive audience. Dial hardly moves - some "winners," "some losers," but overall a sort of status quo - saying that the burden has to fall somewhere, doesn't cut it for me, in the sense you cast it. I agree, but I'd rather us went after all the avoidance (and sometimes evasion) elements - irrespective of "wealth/earnings" - to close many more of them off. Like every "system" there are plenty taking every benefit they can, legally or illegally, whilst that captive 100 argues the toss.

The magic wealth tax that only hits billionaires would of course be one that kicked in at £1,000,000,000 - (or slightly lower number :-) ). I've been batting on about the "missing tax element" for a while now and you can't ever get at them through normal taxation, because they have highly paid loophole specialists. Maybe a revenue tax would solve it - but that's obviously difficult too - because overall, that's the bit that grows year on year. The archaic notion that it would stop "innovation and investment" I think is a fallacy. Most people's wages have been broadly stagnant, but I haven't spotted them all stopping working in protest.

The front loading of the investment is a worry, because you then need the growth over the 5 year term - Labour were generally (comparatively) good at growth for most of their last term, but this feels like a 5 year government defining gamble - that's not being judgemental as to whether it'll pay off or not. Just that it's a gamble.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:29 pm

How much do you actually need to maintain a good lifestyle, at whatever level is considered good for the rest of your own life? Oh aye, I can imagine the outrage at even the audacity of such a question, "What doth it profit a man?" etc, but that's basically what it's all about without the Financial Times rules and regs oligarchs emulating Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great, Napoleon and co and making their own elastic rules. How many companies, properties, villas abroad and a couple of yachts and maybe a helicopter are balanced by the rule-makers of the norm against Joe- nine-to-five, Ford Focus driver who has one vacation in the sun per year if he's lucky? (Those that actually work I hasten to add)

Finished chortling yet? The reality is actually not too far from the nonsense that prevails in a world of greed, financial fairytales and with the ever present impending threat of war scattered world-wide. As Omar Khayam said..quote,,

How sweet is mortal Sovranty!" - think some :
Others - "How blest the Paradise to come!"
Ah, take the Cash in hand and waive the Rest;
Oh, the brave Music of a distant Drum!
unquote

Meanshile...in Westminster... :wink:
Si Deus pro nobis, quis contra nos?

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Thu Oct 31, 2024 5:06 pm

Well? How much is it? :-)

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:21 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:04 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:01 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:39 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 5:22 pm
Abdoulaye's Twin wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:31 pm
Need to see the detail myself, but on the surface it still feels more in the tinkering round the edges than radical change column.
Not sure I agree on that. It’s a pretty fundamental shift. Not perfect for me but I think perfect went out the possibility window a long time ago.
So, we have a freeze for car drivers but an increase for bus users. Not quite the progressive green policy.
NI increases that will hit small businesses disproportionately, along with another fairly major hike in minimum wage
I'm not seeing much for the 0.1% to worry about. Not much that is moving the dial meaningfully on poverty.
Growth still seems to be predicated on the market that has largely been more interested in share buy backs and executive pay that investment. I'll not be holding my breath on that happening anytime soon.

Don't get me wrong, its an improvement on the Tories, but it isn't radical and it isn't going after wealth, more the easier to target middle. Forgive me for paucity of enthusiasm...
The thing is that analysis shows the lowest earners are biggest gainers and higher earners are taking the brunt. But people always think the people taking the brunt are them.

There is some relief for small businesses too via employment allowance changes that will shield the smallest businesses from the NI changes and indeed reduce their NI bills.

But the burden had to fall somewhere and realistically there’s no magic wealth tax that raises the revenue whilst only hitting billionaires. It doesn’t exist. Inspire of all the people who pretend it does.

Loads of money raised for public services. Loads for investment. It has to work but previously labours plan was bidenomics without the stimulus. Now they have the stimulus. Which I do think is their only real option. I’d have preferred them to just reverse the NI cuts the Tories had made tbh rather than claw it back off employer contributions. But then that would have been a tax on lower paid people - and there is the political manifesto issue too.

Fundamentally they’ve had people screaming at them for a year saying they had to raise taxes and borrowing to restore public services or they’d be a disgrace to the Labour name. They’ve done that. So I’m in the
‘Now you’ve got to deliver’ camp. Bit like Evatt. Though they’ve not had several historic goes.
To point, the first. They needed to stop shuffling deckchairs and look at widening how and where from, we take tax. They've done some of this, but nowhere near enough. If I have 100 taxpayers and I need more tax, then sure I could move it from low to high or high to low, but I still have 100 taxpayers. You get a bit more or a bit less (in country economy terms) from the same captive audience. Dial hardly moves - some "winners," "some losers," but overall a sort of status quo - saying that the burden has to fall somewhere, doesn't cut it for me, in the sense you cast it. I agree, but I'd rather us went after all the avoidance (and sometimes evasion) elements - irrespective of "wealth/earnings" - to close many more of them off. Like every "system" there are plenty taking every benefit they can, legally or illegally, whilst that captive 100 argues the toss.

The magic wealth tax that only hits billionaires would of course be one that kicked in at £1,000,000,000 - (or slightly lower number :-) ). I've been batting on about the "missing tax element" for a while now and you can't ever get at them through normal taxation, because they have highly paid loophole specialists. Maybe a revenue tax would solve it - but that's obviously difficult too - because overall, that's the bit that grows year on year. The archaic notion that it would stop "innovation and investment" I think is a fallacy. Most people's wages have been broadly stagnant, but I haven't spotted them all stopping working in protest.

The front loading of the investment is a worry, because you then need the growth over the 5 year term - Labour were generally (comparatively) good at growth for most of their last term, but this feels like a 5 year government defining gamble - that's not being judgemental as to whether it'll pay off or not. Just that it's a gamble.
I agree really. I just think we need long term tax reform that was never coming in this budget.

As for the gamble bit…totally agree. I was more worried they wouldn’t gamble tbh….that would be worse. But there are big risks here. Big risks.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by TANGODANCER » Thu Oct 31, 2024 7:10 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2024 5:06 pm
Well? How much is it? :-)
Ask the Russians..https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxvnwkl5kgo

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Oct 31, 2024 8:10 pm

I love listening to the sob stories. The couple who own 60 yes that’s right 60 buy to let properties who have supposedly had to sell their boat and come out of retirement because of the budget. Hahahaha.

The farmer who says he’s finished because he owns a 3.5M farm that he would not have to pay inheritance tax on to pass to his children. Turns out it’s less a farm and more a caravan park. But whatever. And he was probably using the classification to fiddle IHT. But let’s ignore that. He can avoid paying IHT fairly easily with appropriate insurance given he’s under 60. And I’d imagine it’s not going to financially destroy him.

They are all coming out of the woodwork.

Capital gains, IHT, - these have been needing changing for a while.

I do have sympathy for some businesses though. The NIC rise is going to cause pain. Though a lot of the small businesses up in arms are starting to twig they won’t be any worse off and some actually will be better off. But the potential impact in some industries on the third sector is troubling. I do hope they’ve got the gamble right there because it’s medium sized businesses, charities and the like that I think might seriously struggle.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Hoboh » Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:40 am

One really worrying thing emerging is the effects of the NIC on charities who are being given no exceptions even if they work with unaffected public bodies.
Yeah, I've seen the bleating about overpaid CEO's and managers alongside the why should those wanting holidays for pets, (tongue in cheek btw) not be included, but this will have a serious effect on Hospices (who get little by way of funding from the NHS despite carrying out extremely important work for them) and even load costs on GP surgeries because they are classed as private enterprises. Bad enough now getting hold of them, imagine less receptionists etc.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Nov 01, 2024 11:14 am

Hoboh wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:40 am
One really worrying thing emerging is the effects of the NIC on charities who are being given no exceptions even if they work with unaffected public bodies.
Yeah, I've seen the bleating about overpaid CEO's and managers alongside the why should those wanting holidays for pets, (tongue in cheek btw) not be included, but this will have a serious effect on Hospices (who get little by way of funding from the NHS despite carrying out extremely important work for them) and even load costs on GP surgeries because they are classed as private enterprises. Bad enough now getting hold of them, imagine less receptionists etc.
Yep. Might be rare but you and I are in agreement here.

I’ve seen some analysis from a friend who does this research for a living and it’s a really uneven effect - a lot of business will be better off or unaffected but look at the care world, third sector and things like GP practices and it is going to impact a lot.

It’s the mid sized stuff with a fair number of low paid workers that is going to be hit massively.

I think they need to rethink that somehow. The % rise is probably fine but the threshold lowering is going to hurt the third sector and care hugely.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:56 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2024 11:14 am
Hoboh wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:40 am
One really worrying thing emerging is the effects of the NIC on charities who are being given no exceptions even if they work with unaffected public bodies.
Yeah, I've seen the bleating about overpaid CEO's and managers alongside the why should those wanting holidays for pets, (tongue in cheek btw) not be included, but this will have a serious effect on Hospices (who get little by way of funding from the NHS despite carrying out extremely important work for them) and even load costs on GP surgeries because they are classed as private enterprises. Bad enough now getting hold of them, imagine less receptionists etc.
Yep. Might be rare but you and I are in agreement here.

I’ve seen some analysis from a friend who does this research for a living and it’s a really uneven effect - a lot of business will be better off or unaffected but look at the care world, third sector and things like GP practices and it is going to impact a lot.

It’s the mid sized stuff with a fair number of low paid workers that is going to be hit massively.

I think they need to rethink that somehow. The % rise is probably fine but the threshold lowering is going to hurt the third sector and care hugely.
I think this is one of the problems with "big" budget approaches - in the round you look at net effects of some smallish changes, but not the impact they have on individuals - so you end up with a "spreadsheet view" of the world, rather than a real one. I'm sure there's stories as you mention Insano - I think our overall approach to tax, often penalises those who try to play a straight bat because they're a low cost, easy target - they're the ones that get hit time and again - be it conservatives giving tax cuts to middle, higher earners at the expense of lower income/wider base or labour going at it the other way around to redress the balance.

I think there's a reasonable argument on pensions, as they're tax free when you put into them.

I don't agree on things you've already paid tax on, that's then getting taxed again. As for the business element - you can get business relief for business assets including buildings as long as they were business assets at date of death - 2 years. So once again clever people will asset mask because we have an overly-complicated tax system that allows it. Needs simplifying and being equitable.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Nov 01, 2024 1:38 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:56 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2024 11:14 am
Hoboh wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:40 am
One really worrying thing emerging is the effects of the NIC on charities who are being given no exceptions even if they work with unaffected public bodies.
Yeah, I've seen the bleating about overpaid CEO's and managers alongside the why should those wanting holidays for pets, (tongue in cheek btw) not be included, but this will have a serious effect on Hospices (who get little by way of funding from the NHS despite carrying out extremely important work for them) and even load costs on GP surgeries because they are classed as private enterprises. Bad enough now getting hold of them, imagine less receptionists etc.
Yep. Might be rare but you and I are in agreement here.

I’ve seen some analysis from a friend who does this research for a living and it’s a really uneven effect - a lot of business will be better off or unaffected but look at the care world, third sector and things like GP practices and it is going to impact a lot.

It’s the mid sized stuff with a fair number of low paid workers that is going to be hit massively.

I think they need to rethink that somehow. The % rise is probably fine but the threshold lowering is going to hurt the third sector and care hugely.
I think this is one of the problems with "big" budget approaches - in the round you look at net effects of some smallish changes, but not the impact they have on individuals - so you end up with a "spreadsheet view" of the world, rather than a real one. I'm sure there's stories as you mention Insano - I think our overall approach to tax, often penalises those who try to play a straight bat because they're a low cost, easy target - they're the ones that get hit time and again - be it conservatives giving tax cuts to middle, higher earners at the expense of lower income/wider base or labour going at it the other way around to redress the balance.

I think there's a reasonable argument on pensions, as they're tax free when you put into them.

I don't agree on things you've already paid tax on, that's then getting taxed again. As for the business element - you can get business relief for business assets including buildings as long as they were business assets at date of death - 2 years. So once again clever people will asset mask because we have an overly-complicated tax system that allows it. Needs simplifying and being equitable.
Ironically one of the classic schemes is to buy up land and reclassify it as agricultural to get the relief.

I think you are right in that the problem with budget measures that have uneven impacts are it’s very hard to adequately mitigate them. They could have had a different threshold for NIC for non profits that might help. But in a way baked in even more lumpiness.

I think most of the changes indeed the whole thing are reasonable in that they protect the poorest and place the burden more on broader shoulders. But the NIC changes feel dangerous for some sectors - and sectors we rely on.

Mind whole thing isn’t helped by an OBR error wiping £18Bn off the budget.

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