Derren Brown - Predicting the Lottery

Prufrock · Post by **Prufrock** » Thu Sep 10, 2009 1:22 pm

thebish wrote:
Tombwfc wrote:But then his act isn't, and has never been as far as I can tell, that he's a psychic who can actually predict the lottery numbers through his own miraculous gift. He just creates the illusion that he predicted them.
indeed - absolutely - i don't disagree that's his purpose.. I'm just saying i am always turned off and lose interest when an illusionist does summat in a special box - or behind a screen - cos my mind thinks - if he can make that girl disappear - then why does he need the box? and if he can saw her in half without harming her - why does he need the box - and if he can run her through with 20 swords and not puncture her - then it would look better without the box...

so i am guessing the same would be true here - guessing cos i didn't see it - but guessing that my mind would say - if he can predict the lottery then why only show me after the event - or (as others have said) why not put his money where his mouth is and buy a ticket - then claim the winnings - to prove he actually predicted the numbers in advance...

once my mind does that - however clever the illusion - I can see it is an illusion and so it ceases to entertain me...

(on a side note... I often do the trick where you stuff a red silk into your fist and make it disappear - it can be quite effective. My missus begged me to show her how it is done - I warned her that once she knew it would destroy her enjoyment of anyone ever doing it or summat similar again - but she insisted - so i showed her - and she was crushingly disappointed at how obvious and crass the trick is.... and now wishes I had never told her...)

What Tom said. The reason I absolutely love the man is that whilst on the one hand, he is very clear that he isn't actually psychic, adn that anyone claiming to be is a complete fraud, he still manages to appear psychic. You still don't know how he does it, and so for me it is still fascinating. If you are holding out for somebody genuinely psychic, you may be waiting a while, coz there's no such thing. The fact magic and psychicness don't exist means your brain will always say 'this is bollocks', the fascination comes from trying to figure out how.

You mention once you know how a trick is done it loses it's appeal, and you are 100% correct but what Brown does really well is show you how he does a little trick, then come up with another more spectacular one to keep you guessing. Also he often tells people a 'wrong' answer. In his TV show he can pick up a woman, but a proper strong boxer can't because Derren has 'drained his strength through his mind'. Nowt to do with the fact boxer tries to lift her at arms length, but Derren from in close. Simple levers trick.

I'd be surprised if what he says on Friday is the actual way he did it, or if it is as simple as camera tricks.
Read his book, it's brilliant.

Worthy4England · Post by **Worthy4England** » Thu Sep 10, 2009 1:35 pm

Can we get him to predict a 3-1 away win for Bolton on Saturday?

Puskas · Post by **Puskas** » Thu Sep 10, 2009 1:45 pm

Worthy4England wrote:Can we get him to predict a 3-1 away win for Bolton on Saturday?

Indeed.

He could, no doubt, seal his prediction in an envelope, and, once we've won 3-1, produce the prediction.

Although I'm finding it easier to believe he is a witch with soothsaying powers than the the idea that we could win 3-1.

a1 · Post by a1 » Thu Sep 10, 2009 1:49 pm

Jamies Randi's had his act stole.

tony cunninghams willy · Post by **tony cunninghams willy** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 7:35 pm

If he produces a system to choose the lottery numbers every eejit in the country will follow the system tomorrow night and either 14 million people will share a £14 million jackpot or Derren Brown will be exposed as the bell end he really is.

Athers · Post by **Athers** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:06 pm

What a load of bollocks.

thebish · Post by **thebish** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:29 pm

so - for those of us who couldn't be arsed - what was the trick?

Athers · Post by **Athers** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:55 pm

He didnt say really.

Just a load of misdirection involving a group of 24 people doing completely random number selections, then taking 6 mean averages. The idea is much like the "country fair" method in which if 200 people guess the weight of an ox the average will be pretty close.

Horseshit though as I could get 100,000 people to select 6 numbers in their sleep and I'd still end up with a line of 6 with a 1 in 14m chance.

At the end of the show he talked through a method of rigging the machine and said well, which do you believe?

Waste of an hour, it was probably the camera thing after all

thebish · Post by **thebish** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 9:22 am

Athers wrote:He didnt say really.

Just a load of misdirection involving a group of 24 people doing completely random number selections, then taking 6 mean averages. The idea is much like the "country fair" method in which if 200 people guess the weight of an ox the average will be pretty close.

Horseshit though as I could get 100,000 people to select 6 numbers in their sleep and I'd still end up with a line of 6 with a 1 in 14m chance.

At the end of the show he talked through a method of rigging the machine and said well, which do you believe?

Waste of an hour, it was probably the camera thing after all

a - y'see - classic misdirection - getting a load of muppets to watch two programmes never mind one - oh the power of suggestion!

mofgimmers · Post by **mofgimmers** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 5:14 pm

Worthy4England wrote:Can we get him to predict a 3-1 away win for Bolton on Saturday?

You weren't bloody far off Worthy!

You're clearly a witch.

*BURN HIM*

Worthy4England · Post by **Worthy4England** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 5:41 pm

mofgimmers wrote:
Worthy4England wrote:Can we get him to predict a 3-1 away win for Bolton on Saturday?
You weren't bloody far off Worthy!

You're clearly a witch.

*BURN HIM*

So tonight's numbers are

4, 19, 23, 17, 8, 47

jimbo · Post by **jimbo** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 9:53 pm

I've just caught up with it and can't see how getting all of those people to predict the numbers and then averaging the guesses can work. He said it's based on the bull thing, but that isn't random. You can see the bull, it's there infront of you so you can have an educated guess. The more people that do, it will average out towards the real value. But for the lottery? If 16 has come out 8 times in a row, there's still the same chance of it popping up this week than maybe 20, which may not have appeared all year, meaning it is impossible to predict.

Anyway, not a clue how he does his things, but I think he's great and the next one looks interesting.

officer_dibble · Post by **officer_dibble** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 10:40 pm

Was out last night so recorded the Friday show, but might not watch it now, sounds like bollocks!

I was convinced it was the oild photo over half the camera trick, but then would that have made a 1hr tv show...i doubt it...!

Tombwfc · Post by **Tombwfc** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 11:12 pm

It was pretty much bollocks really. Split screen sounds massively more plausible.

Still, pulled in massive ratings, so I doubt he or C4 give a feck.

a1 · Post by a1 » Sun Sep 13, 2009 11:25 pm

Tombwfc wrote:It was pretty much bollocks really. Split screen sounds massively more plausible.

Still, pulled in massive ratings, so I doubt he or C4 give a feck.

the coin game only had a half arsed explanation of the rules,

he didnt predict it beforehand, he showed the guessed numbers after, he should have revealed his guesses seconds before the draw, its not like you could buy a ticket in tme.
-
it was like when the lotto came out and conmen were tricking their mates into buying drinks for them by showing the playing board with the ink lines filled in and not the actual ticket. someone on here tried it way back when. michelle or summert.

one of the wierd flashmob couldnt even choose randomly numbers properly yet was reallocated jobwise into working out mean averages.

penn and teller would tell you.

Prufrock · Post by **Prufrock** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 11:25 pm

Tombwfc wrote:It was pretty much bollocks really. Split screen sounds massively more plausible.

Still, pulled in massive ratings, so I doubt he or C4 give a feck.

I'm not buying split screen because that isn't how he does things, and I think he has too much pride (now he has enough money) not to mess around with boring, half arsed shite like that. Like I predicted though, there is no way what he said is actually how he did it. Either, the obvious answer, he obviously isn't going to tell the nation how to win the lottery, OR, the 'fixing the machine' is true and he is openly flaunting the fact he runs the world.

BWFC_Insane · Post by **BWFC_Insane** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:39 am

Prufrock wrote:
Tombwfc wrote:It was pretty much bollocks really. Split screen sounds massively more plausible.

Still, pulled in massive ratings, so I doubt he or C4 give a feck.
I'm not buying split screen because that isn't how he does things, and I think he has too much pride (now he has enough money) not to mess around with boring, half arsed shite like that. Like I predicted though, there is no way what he said is actually how he did it. Either, the obvious answer, he obviously isn't going to tell the nation how to win the lottery, OR, the 'fixing the machine' is true and he is openly flaunting the fact he runs the world.

He DID NOT predict jack shit.

He has found a way to put numbers on balls very quickly after a draw. OR its all camera tricks. Either is possible as he's done this to create controversy and build an audience and get everyone talking about him.

Since he's not admitting to the real reason then he can get away with it being "camera trickery".

As for "fixing the machine" what a load of absolute impossible bollocks. IF he really had done that the lottery would not still be happening now would it?

Prufrock · Post by **Prufrock** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 1:56 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Prufrock wrote:
Tombwfc wrote:It was pretty much bollocks really. Split screen sounds massively more plausible.

Still, pulled in massive ratings, so I doubt he or C4 give a feck.
I'm not buying split screen because that isn't how he does things, and I think he has too much pride (now he has enough money) not to mess around with boring, half arsed shite like that. Like I predicted though, there is no way what he said is actually how he did it. Either, the obvious answer, he obviously isn't going to tell the nation how to win the lottery, OR, the 'fixing the machine' is true and he is openly flaunting the fact he runs the world.
He DID NOT predict jack shit.

He has found a way to put numbers on balls very quickly after a draw. OR its all camera tricks. Either is possible as he's done this to create controversy and build an audience and get everyone talking about him.

Since he's not admitting to the real reason then he can get away with it being "camera trickery".

As for "fixing the machine" what a load of absolute impossible bollocks. IF he really had done that the lottery would not still be happening now would it?

Million Dead: I am the Party wrote: Swallowed the sleeve, but did not see my tongue, inside my cheek

I know he didn't really fix it, nor really predict it. Split camera just seems too much of a crappy cop out that he didn't need to do.

Athers · Post by **Athers** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 6:53 pm

There's plenty on Youtube seems to support the camera thing anyway, the last ball is slightly raised after the draw compared with before.

The illusion is getting us to think he cut the girl in half, not actually doing it. This is just overstated.

Bwfcraig · Post by **Bwfcraig** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:49 pm

Proberly didnt do a big reveal so he can repeat his lottery predicting skills elsewhere and get even more big rating shows.

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Derren Brown - Predicting the Lottery

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