The Politics Thread

[Lord Kangana]

I watched episode 2 of Benefits Street.

Ignore the stupid name - again I thought the subjects were portrayed pretty sympathetically - this time Romanian immigrants. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to be moved by these men's explanantions of how they are driven on by a love for their kids.

I still can't get past the idea of it being highly exploitative, but it must serve as a lesson to those who would deride people on benefits as "living it up" at our expense. It looked the most god-forsaken way to exist I've seen. I hadn't thought people could still live like that in a 21st century social democracy.

[William the White]

i haven't watched. Try to avoid voyeur television. IIRC the opening song of excellent satire Jerry Springer, the Opera is the audience gearing up by singing a number with the refrain Bring on the losers.... Tasty.

[Hoboh]

Watched 5 mins then ran out of bullets!

[Athers]

Unemployment fell by 167,000 in 3 months to November to 2.32 million, a change in rate from 7.4% to 7.1%

I know they lead the polls at the moment but can't see Labour still being favourites in 2015 if this keeps up..?

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Unemployment fell by 167,000 in 3 months to November to 2.32 million, a change in rate from 7.4% to 7.1%

I know they lead the polls at the moment but can't see Labour still being favourites in 2015 if this keeps up..?

But if the reductions in unemployed are largely due to part time minimum wage or badly paid zero hours type work then the Tories can hardly be claiming any sort of success.

[BWFC_Insane]

Unemployment fell by 167,000 in 3 months to November to 2.32 million, a change in rate from 7.4% to 7.1%

I know they lead the polls at the moment but can't see Labour still being favourites in 2015 if this keeps up..?

But if the reductions in unemployed are largely due to part time minimum wage or badly paid zero hours type work then the Tories can hardly be claiming any sort of success.

Well quite, and in my experience people's lives are not on the whole improving. In many cases they are getting progressively worse as bills go up.

[Athers]

Unemployment fell by 167,000 in 3 months to November to 2.32 million, a change in rate from 7.4% to 7.1%

I know they lead the polls at the moment but can't see Labour still being favourites in 2015 if this keeps up..?

But if the reductions in unemployed are largely due to part time minimum wage or badly paid zero hours type work then the Tories can hardly be claiming any sort of success.

Are you going to analyse them to determine this for us? http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just look at the macro indicators at the moment: Strong growth, unemployment falling quickly, inflation at target, positive noises in business and consumer confidence... 15 more months of this and people will be feeling better off. It's late, but it looks like it's finally happening.

I think Labour may end up forced to run their campaign on the NHS, energy bills and putting those #costoflivingcrisis graphics on Twitter.

[Hoboh]

Unemployment fell by 167,000 in 3 months to November to 2.32 million, a change in rate from 7.4% to 7.1%

I know they lead the polls at the moment but can't see Labour still being favourites in 2015 if this keeps up..?

But if the reductions in unemployed are largely due to part time minimum wage or badly paid zero hours type work then the Tories can hardly be claiming any sort of success.

Are you going to analyse them to determine this for us? http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just look at the macro indicators at the moment: Strong growth, unemployment falling quickly, inflation at target, positive noises in business and consumer confidence... 15 more months of this and people will be feeling better off. It's late, but it looks like it's finally happening.

I think Labour may end up forced to run their campaign on the NHS, energy bills and putting those #costoflivingcrisis graphics on Twitter.

It may also force their hand on the Europe issue too which they seem to be dodging at the moment

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Unemployment fell by 167,000 in 3 months to November to 2.32 million, a change in rate from 7.4% to 7.1%

I know they lead the polls at the moment but can't see Labour still being favourites in 2015 if this keeps up..?

But if the reductions in unemployed are largely due to part time minimum wage or badly paid zero hours type work then the Tories can hardly be claiming any sort of success.

Are you going to analyse them to determine this for us? http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just look at the macro indicators at the moment: Strong growth, unemployment falling quickly, inflation at target, positive noises in business and consumer confidence... 15 more months of this and people will be feeling better off. It's late, but it looks like it's finally happening.

I think Labour may end up forced to run their campaign on the NHS, energy bills and putting those #costoflivingcrisis graphics on Twitter.

I've a life to lead, so wont analyse it My take is:

Unemployment may be falling, but as said, I don't think they are in the main jobs that people particularly want or pay enough to live in any comfort (subjective I know).

Where is this growth? If it is Amazon and the like experiencing the growth then the benefit of that growth will be sucked offshore and ever day people wont be any better for it.

Inflation may be at target, but increasing number of people are unable to afford groceries and utility bills (if the news and food banks are to be believed)

Consumer confidence is the most brittle of things. With the numbers of shops struggling to stay open and offering ever more desperate discounts I'm not convinced.

Business confidence doesn't really mean anything unless they act on that confidence and start giving pay increases and create new positions paying reasonable salaries. My old company was confident these last few years. Despite increase in profits they made a fair few redundant and did away with pay reviews for the last 5 years.

The proof wont be in statistics, it will be in how people perceive their own situation and those around them. Whilst things have improved for some, I think the majority feel worse off now then they did last year, the year before and even a few before that.

I don't have stats to back any of this up. From what I read and the stories I hear it seems quite realistic to me compared to what the government will have us believe (who state many more cuts to come yet).

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

I don't have stats to back any of this up.

But yet strangely you feel qualified to comment from 3000 miles away - go figure!

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

I don't have stats to back any of this up.

But yet strangely you feel qualified to comment from 3000 miles away - go figure!

Mainly because I keep up to date with current affairs more than many in the UK do. I also speak to family, friends and ex colleagues that are all still in the UK. I was also in the UK twice last year. Given technology you hardly have to be somewhere to have a clue these days. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have an opinion that doesn't deserve to be dismissed because of my current location.

[Hoboh]

I don't have stats to back any of this up.

But yet strangely you feel qualified to comment from 3000 miles away - go figure!

Mainly because I keep up to date with current affairs more than many in the UK do. I also speak to family, friends and ex colleagues that are all still in the UK. I was also in the UK twice last year. Given technology you hardly have to be somewhere to have a clue these days. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have an opinion that doesn't deserve to be dismissed because of my current location.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don't have stats to back any of this up.

But yet strangely you feel qualified to comment from 3000 miles away - go figure!

But bizarrely he seems more in touch with what is actually happening than some of those who comment from these shores!

[Lord Kangana]

Most people couldn't give a shit about stats. And most people I speak to, to back AT up, are fed up of being told everything's better when the experience of their own lives doesn't reflect that.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Most people couldn't give a shit about stats. And most people I speak to, to back AT up, are fed up of being told everything's better when the experience of their own lives doesn't reflect that.

Would it be fair to say that anecdotal evidence is always likely to support our own world view because we tend to talk to like-minded people?

[Athers]

The point is that it's GETTING better. If this momentum carries on 15 months down the line when we have the election, more and more people will feel it.

The ONS figures also showed that the number of people in employment increased by 280,000 to reach 30.15 million.

Bet these folk think things are better now though!

[thebish]

The point is that it's GETTING better. If this momentum carries on 15 months down the line when we have the election, more and more people will feel it.

The ONS figures also showed that the number of people in employment increased by 280,000 to reach 30.15 million.

Bet these folk think things are better now though!

maybe they do - maybe they don't... it's entirely possible that lots have been pushed into low-paid/part-time work that they hate and leaves them still claiming top-up, in-work benefits and basically the same kind of income they had before - in those circumstances it may very well be that they don't feel that much better off... (I know a few people in this position - some of whom now have two jobs - but still require top-up benefits to survive...)

on the other hand - some of them might have secured a highly-paid career in a field of their choosing and are living a super-duper new lifestyle - in which case they might feel better off... (I don't know anyone like this - but then, as Mummy correctly points out, the anecdotal evidence we have usually comes from our own sphere of work/family/friends)

there's a third category (and also probably many more) that seems common amongst people I know - that is those whose job is now much bigger than it ever was before (due to them taking on the responsibilities of others who were laid off) - but with the same pay - pay that feels like a cut because it has not kept pace with inflation... they don't feel better off either...

i suspect it is a very mixed bag...

i haven't done much research to determine if there are significantly more of one than the other...

[thebish]

on the other hand - I am irritated by Labour's constant "standard of living" mantra. To me, it is FAR from obvious that we should expect an year-on-year endless rise in standard of living... i'm quite happy with my standard of living now. it is modest by UK standards - but massively privileged by world standards... i don't need to to rise - i am happy enough anyway - i'd still be happy if it fell....

[Beefheart]

The point is that it's GETTING better. If this momentum carries on 15 months down the line when we have the election, more and more people will feel it.

The ONS figures also showed that the number of people in employment increased by 280,000 to reach 30.15 million.

Bet these folk think things are better now though!

Feeling better than compared to when? I'm sure they'll feel better than when they were unemployed but what was their situation pre-crash?

Also, with inflation hitting it's target of 2%, Unemployment set to go below 7%, how long can the BoE maintain interest rates at 0.5%, and if they are forced to increase them how sensititive will the recovery be to an interest rates rise?

[BWFC_Insane]

on the other hand - I am irritated by Labour's constant "standard of living" mantra. To me, it is FAR from obvious that we should expect an year-on-year endless rise in standard of living... i'm quite happy with my standard of living now. it is modest by UK standards - but massively privileged by world standards... i don't need to to rise - i am happy enough anyway - i'd still be happy if it fell....

I get that, though an improvement in standard of living especially for the poorest elements of society is important. Especially now when I suspect many people are far far worse off than they were pre 2008.