The Politics Thread

[Worthy4England]

Just on the "housebuilding crisis" BW2 - that's being caused almost exclusively by developers and land-bankers stifling the supply and playing the system into not having to build "20% affordable housing". Greater Manchester (for example) has 15 years supply (by their own warped calculations) of plots on none greenfield land - enough for 172,000 dwellings. Yet the developers are delivering a post war record low, saying there's no supply

[BWFC_Insane]

Interesting Monty but the article seems have missed the elephant in the room: - Room. Otherwise known as population density.

I understand that Canada and, to a slightly lesser extent, the USA has rather more space for development than the UK.

Generally, Britain has been tolerant to immigration over the centuries because the relatively slow pace of immigration has been absorbed without putting huge strain on the taxpayer-funded services. That, it appears, is no longer the case with daily stories of road gridlock, an inadequate public transport system in many parts of the UK (railways, despite the investment put in over the last decade or two, now constantly overcrowded) schools over-subscribed, medical practices overwhelmed by demand and the hospitals in a dire state. The physical effects are noticed by more and more people, apart from some parts of the Scottish Highlands where one's only company may be a passing red deer.

The estimated figures are stark - if the population of the UK is 65m as claimed, an annual influx of a further 0.5m per year may have added a further 5m over the last 10 years. That is 5 new Birminghams (which we don't want. We haven't managed to get rid of the first one yet.). That is getting on for an 8% increase. Have Canada and the USA seen such a percentage growth in such a short period of time? In reality no one knows what the net migration really is because of the incompetence of this and previous governments.
Hence the housebuilding crisis and the pinching of greenbelt land which would normally be used for farming. So, population density. and it's rise leads to push-back from the voters.

And before anyone brings up the myth of immigrants covering their costs by their tax contributions, it's a lie. Even the most economically illiterate can soon see that the theory is nonsense. Average UK income £26k, average tax take per individual £8k including all taxes, duties, etc. Average number of dependents, say 1.6. Average use of taxpayer funded facilities and services per individual £10k x 1.6 = £16k.

Virtually every country in the world has a lower population density than the UK and that is the real reason for antipathy to further mass immigration. Not the colour of peoples skin, the language they were brought up with or their cultural differences. Just too many people fighting for room and resources which are just not there where people want to live. Although if you live on top of a windswept hill in the Pennines and never go anywhere, it may not be that relevant.

There are so many holes to pick in this that I literally do not know where to start.

1) Average "drain on services and facilities" does not equate to spend per head (which I think is roughly the figure you are using).
2) Migrants on average use far less tax funded facilities and services (especially EU migrants) since they are often of young working age, healthy and earning a living here.
3) Your net migration figures are entirely wrong. There aren't 0.5m coming in every year net.
4) None of the data backs up pressures in the NHS or public services as being primarily down to migration. In fact quite the opposite they show that has a very, very small impact. These pressures are caused by an ageing population that generally demands more, and underfunding of the NHS, Social Care and Local authorities. The idea that our transport woes are down to "immigration" literally makes me ROFL. Literally. As though we haven't had ever increasing cars on the road for the past 6 decades. As though the lack of investment in public transport hasn't materially damaged its ability to cope. It is laughable that anyone would seriously try to claim immigration is a major factor in this - particularly this.
5) The housing crisis is because we don't build enough houses. Even more so enough houses for first time buyers at reasonable prices. You could get rid of every EU migrant tomorrow and we'd still have the same housing crisis.
6) Virtually every country in the world has a lower population density than the UK - well I guess if you discount the 49 that don't then yes virtually every country...likes of Netherlands, Belgium, Japan, South Korea all have higher ones.

[Lord Kangana]

I'm giving a big fat....



to anyone bandying about migration figures. My recollection is that particular one originates with The Sun and forced a retraction from them (naturally somehwere amongst the dial-a-granny ads) by the IPCC.

[Montreal Wanderer]

The question was raised as to whether Canadians were less (significantly) concerned that Brits because of population density - i.e. Canada has more room for immigrants. It is true Canada is the second largest country on earth but very large parts of it are basically uninhabitable. Well over 90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the American border. Our immigrants are probably the least capable of living further North - Syrians don't get on well near the arctic circle. I suppose Australia has a similar per cent of uninhabitable land, though the population appears to be far more anti immigration than in Canada.

[Hoboh]

Interesting Monty but the article seems have missed the elephant in the room: - Room. Otherwise known as population density.

I understand that Canada and, to a slightly lesser extent, the USA has rather more space for development than the UK.

Generally, Britain has been tolerant to immigration over the centuries because the relatively slow pace of immigration has been absorbed without putting huge strain on the taxpayer-funded services. That, it appears, is no longer the case with daily stories of road gridlock, an inadequate public transport system in many parts of the UK (railways, despite the investment put in over the last decade or two, now constantly overcrowded) schools over-subscribed, medical practices overwhelmed by demand and the hospitals in a dire state. The physical effects are noticed by more and more people, apart from some parts of the Scottish Highlands where one's only company may be a passing red deer.

The estimated figures are stark - if the population of the UK is 65m as claimed, an annual influx of a further 0.5m per year may have added a further 5m over the last 10 years. That is 5 new Birminghams (which we don't want. We haven't managed to get rid of the first one yet.). That is getting on for an 8% increase. Have Canada and the USA seen such a percentage growth in such a short period of time? In reality no one knows what the net migration really is because of the incompetence of this and previous governments.
Hence the housebuilding crisis and the pinching of greenbelt land which would normally be used for farming. So, population density. and it's rise leads to push-back from the voters.

And before anyone brings up the myth of immigrants covering their costs by their tax contributions, it's a lie. Even the most economically illiterate can soon see that the theory is nonsense. Average UK income £26k, average tax take per individual £8k including all taxes, duties, etc. Average number of dependents, say 1.6. Average use of taxpayer funded facilities and services per individual £10k x 1.6 = £16k.

Virtually every country in the world has a lower population density than the UK and that is the real reason for antipathy to further mass immigration. Not the colour of peoples skin, the language they were brought up with or their cultural differences. Just too many people fighting for room and resources which are just not there where people want to live. Although if you live on top of a windswept hill in the Pennines and never go anywhere, it may not be that relevant.

There are so many holes to pick in this that I literally do not know where to start.

1) Average "drain on services and facilities" does not equate to spend per head (which I think is roughly the figure you are using).
2) Migrants on average use far less tax funded facilities and services (especially EU migrants) since they are often of young working age, healthy and earning a living here.
Been in A&E Recently or your local GP?
3) Your net migration figures are entirely wrong. There aren't 0.5m coming in every year net.
The number of people migrating to the UK has been greater than the number emigrating since 1994. For much of the twentieth century, the numbers migrating to and from the UK were roughly in balance, and from the 1960s to the early 1990s the number of emigrants was often greater than the number of immigrants. Over the last twenty five years, both immigration and emigration have increased to historically high levels, with immigration exceeding emigration by more than 100,000 in every year since 1998.
4) None of the data backs up pressures in the NHS or public services as being primarily down to migration. In fact quite the opposite they show that has a very, very small impact. These pressures are caused by an ageing population that generally demands more, and underfunding of the NHS, Social Care and Local authorities. The idea that our transport woes are down to "immigration" literally makes me ROFL. Literally. As though we haven't had ever increasing cars on the road for the past 6 decades. As though the lack of investment in public transport hasn't materially damaged its ability to cope. It is laughable that anyone would seriously try to claim immigration is a major factor in this - particularly this.
See above you are fcuking jesting mate, I've seen more of the NHS the last three years than I'd care to, saying it has nothing to do with problems is a joke, most don't need interpreters for one.
5) The housing crisis is because we don't build enough houses. Even more so enough houses for first time buyers at reasonable prices. You could get rid of every EU migrant tomorrow and we'd still have the same housing crisis.
Plenty of empty property about mate, some just don't want to live in certain areas for starters and it's the value not lack of building to blame plus not everyone wants to live in a shoebox overlooked by other shoeboxes.
6) Virtually every country in the world has a lower population density than the UK - well I guess if you discount the 49 that don't then yes virtually every country...likes of Netherlands, Belgium, Japan, South Korea all have higher ones. Until all the African Italians start to arrive.

[Lord Kangana]

We'll never fit them all in, what with all the 15m Turks on their way, will we?

[Worthy4England]

We'll never fit them all in, what with all the 15m Turks on their way, will we?

I think you might find it was all 85 million of them.

I have to say, whilst road warrioring up and down the M40, I've always found it astoundingly complex to recognise that the gridlock was created by Bulgarian immigrants.

I have similar problems spotting Poles in A&E..

Maybe I need an eye test.

[Lord Kangana]

The ultimate irony, of course, is that yes I have been to a GP recently. Interestingly the only immigrants (or shall we say, non-white) folk I've seen there are the staff. Coming over here, stealing our highly skilled jobs. Etc etc.

[BWFC_Insane]

@Hoboh the point re net migration figures is that it has never been 0.5m a year. Ever.

As for the rest of your points why use anecdotes when there are plenty of evidence backed studies out there?

[Hoboh]

@Hoboh the point re net migration figures is that it has never been 0.5m a year. Ever.

As for the rest of your points why use anecdotes when there are plenty of evidence backed studies out there?

Bollocks!

So my eyes are not as good as evidence someone can be quite selective about where he/she gathers information from?

You fookin' avoid certain areas then naturally you won't see problems.

I had to wait for an appointment, was there on time, but went in 45 mins late, reason family, yes whole feckin' family gone in to see specialist who apologised to me saying she had to have everything translated by various family members, when they understood, so don't tell me about anecdotal evidence. At least I suppose the NHS didn't have to foot the bill for an interpreter for that one!

[BWFC_Insane]

@Hoboh the point re net migration figures is that it has never been 0.5m a year. Ever.

As for the rest of your points why use anecdotes when there are plenty of evidence backed studies out there?

Bollocks!

So my eyes are not as good as evidence someone can be quite selective about where he/she gathers information from?

You fookin' avoid certain areas then naturally you won't see problems.

I had to wait for an appointment, was there on time, but went in 45 mins late, reason family, yes whole feckin' family gone in to see specialist who apologised to me saying she had to have everything translated by various family members, when they understood, so don't tell me about anecdotal evidence. At least I suppose the NHS didn't have to foot the bill for an interpreter for that one!

Hoboh, 20 years ago I had to wait over an hour for an appointment.

Anecdotal evidence is utterly pointless. Utterly and totally pointless. If you cannot understand that it is worthless continuing this conversation. As your "evidence" will ultimately always suit your point of view and never actually be based on any fact.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Hoboh, even if the selective evidence is 2 experiences it is still a more comprehensive selection of 'evidence' than your 1 experience

No doubt that immigration has had a negative impact on services amongst other things in a small number of locations, but overall immigration has been positive for the UK. Immigration does need controlling better than it has, but then successive governments haven't bothered to control it with the rules and laws already in place. Rather than throw the baby out with the bath water it would have been wise to exercise those powers and see if it had a positive enough effect to please everybody. I also see to recall a lot of the remain voting areas were the ones with the immigrants and many of the brexit voting areas against immigration as it stood had hardly any immigrants. It would be interesting to see how many Daily Mail readers were in each of those types of area. Seems to me governments and media have sought to blame immigrants rather than shit disastrous policies

[Lord Kangana]

I had my scheduled operation put back a whole week a few years back because the orthopaedic trauma ward was crammed full of dickheads who'd been tanked up and fighting in Farnworth one saturday night.

What the f*ck does your evidence prove anymore than mine?

[Hoboh]

I had my scheduled operation put back a whole week a few years back because the orthopaedic trauma ward was crammed full of dickheads who'd been tanked up and fighting in Farnworth one saturday night.

What the f*ck does your evidence prove anymore than mine?

Exactly my point regarding 'experts' as well.

[Hoboh]

@Hoboh the point re net migration figures is that it has never been 0.5m a year. Ever.

As for the rest of your points why use anecdotes when there are plenty of evidence backed studies out there?

Bollocks!

So my eyes are not as good as evidence someone can be quite selective about where he/she gathers information from?

You fookin' avoid certain areas then naturally you won't see problems.

I had to wait for an appointment, was there on time, but went in 45 mins late, reason family, yes whole feckin' family gone in to see specialist who apologised to me saying she had to have everything translated by various family members, when they understood, so don't tell me about anecdotal evidence. At least I suppose the NHS didn't have to foot the bill for an interpreter for that one!

Hoboh, 20 years ago I had to wait over an hour for an appointment.

Anecdotal evidence is utterly pointless. Utterly and totally pointless. If you cannot understand that it is worthless continuing this conversation. As your "evidence" will ultimately always suit your point of view and never actually be based on any fact.

I understand that you can gather statistics from anywhere and make them say what you want them to.

Look I know you live by the see no evil, hear no evil style and think everybody is just misunderstood or deprived, does that extent to acid attackers as well? Personally, IMHO, the softer society has got with problems the larger they are becoming, one day it will be far to late to change things and I firmly blame the leftie lovies.

[Lord Kangana]

I had my scheduled operation put back a whole week a few years back because the orthopaedic trauma ward was crammed full of dickheads who'd been tanked up and fighting in Farnworth one saturday night.

What the f*ck does your evidence prove anymore than mine?

Exactly my point regarding 'experts' as well.

So you're calling bullshit on your own conclusions then?

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

I had my scheduled operation put back a whole week a few years back because the orthopaedic trauma ward was crammed full of dickheads who'd been tanked up and fighting in Farnworth one saturday night.

What the f*ck does your evidence prove anymore than mine?

Exactly my point regarding 'experts' as well.

You're Michael Gove and I forgoe my Internet fiver and opt for punching him in the gob instead

[Hoboh]

I had my scheduled operation put back a whole week a few years back because the orthopaedic trauma ward was crammed full of dickheads who'd been tanked up and fighting in Farnworth one saturday night.

What the f*ck does your evidence prove anymore than mine?

Exactly my point regarding 'experts' as well.

You're Michael Gove and I forgoe my Internet fiver and opt for punching him in the gob instead

I'd smack you back mate, with malice

Actually the truth is lost in the middle somewhere.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

I had my scheduled operation put back a whole week a few years back because the orthopaedic trauma ward was crammed full of dickheads who'd been tanked up and fighting in Farnworth one saturday night.

What the f*ck does your evidence prove anymore than mine?

Exactly my point regarding 'experts' as well.

You're Michael Gove and I forgoe my Internet fiver and opt for punching him in the gob instead

I'd smack you back mate, with malice

Actually the truth is lost in the middle somewhere.

Trust me, if you're Michael Gove you wont be getting back up any time soon

[BWFC_Insane]

I understand that you can gather statistics from anywhere and make them say what you want them to.

And in saying that you show that you do not understand how proper research is carried out.

Just accept that proper factual evidence won't always support your view, just like it doesn't always support mine. In those cases we need to think whether we should re-evaluate some things.