The Politics Thread

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Who will you be voting for?

Labour
12
40%
Conservatives
11
37%
Liberal Democrats
2
7%
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
0
No votes
Green Party
3
10%
Plaid Cymru
0
No votes
Other
1
3%
Planet Hobo
1
3%
 
Total votes: 30

Bruce Rioja
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Bruce Rioja » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:36 pm

LeverEnd wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:50 am

Let's hope for a decent leader of the opposition.
Keir Starmer - he's yer man.

Looking at some of the places that have gone blue from red - Workington, Barrow, Redcar - fecking REDCAR!!! Sedgfield, Bandwagon Burnham's Leigh, Bridgend, Don Valley, Grimsby.... the list goes on. An absolute disaster for Labour.
Last edited by Bruce Rioja on Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Enoch
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Enoch » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:40 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:36 pm
LeverEnd wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:50 am

Let's hope for a decent leader of the opposition.
Keir Starmer - he's yer man.
The deceitful, lying bastard.

If they were serious about being a serious opposition they could always dig up Alan Arthur Johnson.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Bruce Rioja » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:44 pm

Enoch wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:40 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:36 pm
LeverEnd wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:50 am

Let's hope for a decent leader of the opposition.
Keir Starmer - he's yer man.
The deceitful, lying bastard.
Perfect credentials then. :D
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Bruce Rioja » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:49 pm

Look at these numbers. This is exactly why the current electoral system absolutely stinks.

https://www.google.com/search?safe=off& ... NnUTRqj64g
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by jimbo » Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:00 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:49 pm
Look at these numbers. This is exactly why the current electoral system absolutely stinks.

https://www.google.com/search?safe=off& ... NnUTRqj64g
Yep. As resounding as the Conservative majority in parliament is, over half the country didn’t vote for them. It’s probably time for a reform of FPTP to allow some more varied voices come to the fore and encourage some collaborative working between parties.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:06 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:36 pm
LeverEnd wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:50 am

Let's hope for a decent leader of the opposition.
Keir Starmer - he's yer man.

Looking at some of the places that have gone blue from red - Workington, Barrow, Redcar - fecking REDCAR!!! Sedgfield, Bandwagon Burnham's Leigh, Bridgend, Don Valley, Grimsby.... the list goes on. An absolute disaster for Labour.
Pre election I was shouting this from the rooftops. But as bright, sensible and honest as he is - he's a human rights QC from London. He's the most pro-remain figure in Labour. I'm unsure how he wins back those seats you've listed. He's like the credible alternative if Labour could win based on a metropolitan vote but seems now they probably cannot.

The difficult thing for Labour is this - they got more votes than Blair in 2005. More people voted for them this time round. Because Corbyn has engaged young voters, London voters, city voters more than any Labour leader in recent history - like it or not. But in doing that they lost their Northern and Midlands vote. Sure Brexit precipitated it, but Corbyn's image of a London centric metropolitan hasn't helped - and arguably a bigger factor.

In the election just gone Starmer as leader might have galvanised those voters who wished to remain and maybe seriously challenged the Tories - he'd still have lost those Northern seats.

So I'm not sure it is that simple an answer. The ironic thing is that Corbyn more than any Labour leader stood on a manifesto to actually help the people who ultimately turned against him - the promises whether deliverable or otherwise were actually likely to improve the lives of those people. Or at least aimed to do so.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Enoch » Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:34 pm

Did enjoy watching Jo's Swansong.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by jimbo » Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:15 pm

Enoch wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:34 pm
Did enjoy watching Jo's Swansong.
She’s got things so so wrong and paid the price. She also somehow seemed to be held to account for austerity more than the Conservative party itself. From claiming PM potential 5 weeks ago to now is quite some fall. Not sure how LDs move on from here. There’s limited leadership candidates, and their main / only policy focus for the last 3 years has disappeared now that Brexit will happen next month.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Bruce Rioja » Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:26 pm

jimbo wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:00 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:49 pm
Look at these numbers. This is exactly why the current electoral system absolutely stinks.

https://www.google.com/search?safe=off& ... NnUTRqj64g
Yep. As resounding as the Conservative majority in parliament is, over half the country didn’t vote for them. It’s probably time for a reform of FPTP to allow some more varied voices come to the fore and encourage some collaborative working between parties.
Aye. The Lib Dems won 1.2 million more votes than in 2017 but ended up with one seat fewer. It's a nonsense.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Enoch » Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:31 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:26 pm
jimbo wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:00 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:49 pm
Look at these numbers. This is exactly why the current electoral system absolutely stinks.

https://www.google.com/search?safe=off& ... NnUTRqj64g
Yep. As resounding as the Conservative majority in parliament is, over half the country didn’t vote for them. It’s probably time for a reform of FPTP to allow some more varied voices come to the fore and encourage some collaborative working between parties.
Aye. The Lib Dems won 1.2 million more votes than in 2017 but ended up with one seat fewer. It's a nonsense.
It's the mother of parliamentary democracy and has made my lifetime very comfortable.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by LeverEnd » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:05 pm

I see jezza is sticking around for a bit and doing the 'responsible thing' by waiting until a new leader is chosen. I imagine he means he's going to make sure they don't commit the terrible sin of putting someone sensible and electable in charge.
...

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:20 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:53 am
Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:33 am
dave the minion wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:45 am
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:01 am
Like it or not, it's a ringing endorsement for Brexit and for Boris. God help us!
Don't think it is a ringing endorsement for either. I think it was more a case of the "least bad" option prevailed, rather than a scenario where people really wanted this outcome. In my line of work I come across a lot of people from different walks of life and there is still a huge support for no brexit, but also a sense of resignation that its going to happen and Boris and his chums will get this done the quickest so we can all move on (the uncertainty around Brexit or not or when is harming markets massively and people just want a solution).

As I said, I think a lot of people voted Tory not because the believe in them or support Boris, but purely because they couldn't vote for the current shambles that Labour are in, and didn't want to "waste" a vote on the LibDems - Conservative was the least bad....
This has been one of the worst governments in history for cutting back the state and it's spending, poverty is very real and rising, the gap between haves and have nots, getting wider. Despite that, Labour has been thoroughly trounced. People like me, left of centre but marginally so, couldn't vote for the stupidity policies or especially Corbyn and Momentum. Brexit played pretty much zero part in my thinking. I didn't vote Tory but I didn't vote Labour either, despite thinking "I'm wasting my vote, here"...

Labour carry on their dalliance with Momentum and the harder left, and they might as well read "Militant" from the 1980's, spending years unsuccessfully trying to convince an electorate that is broadly right of centre and further right of centre, that they have the best ideas.
Would a centrist Labour leader have made any difference? I'm no Corbyn fan and my vote I suspect was exactly the same as yours (and similarly wasted) but centrist Labour would be more pro EU than Corbyn. And what would they have to persuade the wider electorate not to vote for the Tories given we're in a sea of rising right wing populism?

I mean centrist Ed Milliband got fewer votes in 2015 than Corbyn did last night. I think it's oversimplifying it to say "appoint a centre left type". Sure it would win back you and I - but not those who vote purely on immigration or wanting an end to liberal values in this country - as is the current trend.

Clearly Corbyn needs to go and immediately. And so does MOST but not all of his front bench. But they need to offer something brave and hopeful and inspiring. That's the only way they'll win round an electorate and it will take time, lots of it. But as you say this government have played the classic con-trick of increasing poverty, running down the NHS and public services and then getting the very people they've disadvantaged to vote for them by passing the blame on the "immigrants, EU and anyone who isn't a rabid right wing nuisance". That's the situation. To counter that Labour need to offer something radically different, deliverable (not nationalising everything that moves) but also exciting. Just putting the nearest thing to Blair in there won't fix this. A move to the centre doesn't entirely fix it. They need credibility and stature amongst the electorate but also to appear to be offering a genuine improvement for people. I've no idea how they achieve that now, but somehow eventually they will. They'll have to.
We've just had an election that's stuffed Labour out of sight, after a hung parliament, marginal government and minority government, all of which have just cut and slashed spending and they did not manage to get their Brexit through their own majority.

How radical was the thing the electorate have just been offered that achieved this?

Get Brexit done. No increase in taxation. Bit extra for NHS and Police (replacing what was taken away). They didn't even have to commit to "slashing immigration" - all they said was they'd introduce a points based system.

That's hardly a hugely radical pitch and Labour didn't need to offer one. Blair's pledge card in 1997 contained the following radical proposals.

Cut class sizes to under 30 for 5-7 year olds. Fast track young offender punishments. Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients. Get 250,000 under 25's off benefits. No rise in Income tax, cut VAT, get inflation and interest rates to "as low as possible".

The Labour manifesto the way it was pitched, sounded like a fcuking IKEA wardrobe assembly sheet - no fcuker could understand it, no fcuker could work out how it was being paid for, other than some people were going to get taxed more (which accounted for less than 10% of the increased spending according to the IFS), we might have left the EU (then again we might not), and it was presented by someone with some of the worst approval ratings ever seen. There wasn't one policy announcement people could digest, before the next one came along. I listened to Rebecca Long-Bailey witter on, on one of the debates about the differences between capital and operational budgets in Government finance. Sure-fire vote winner, right there.

Generally, electorates as a whole don't want radical change, they will accept some incremental change. The electorate in the UK has always been right of centre and pretty much always will be for as long as I can see into the future. Trying to shift them full-on left as Labour tried in the 1980's didn't work then and won't work now.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:37 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:20 pm

We've just had an election that's stuffed Labour out of sight, after a hung parliament, marginal government and minority government, all of which have just cut and slashed spending and they did not manage to get their Brexit through their own majority.

How radical was the thing the electorate have just been offered that achieved this?

Get Brexit done. No increase in taxation. Bit extra for NHS and Police (replacing what was taken away). They didn't even have to commit to "slashing immigration" - all they said was they'd introduce a points based system.

That's hardly a hugely radical pitch and Labour didn't need to offer one. Blair's pledge card in 1997 contained the following radical proposals.

Cut class sizes to under 30 for 5-7 year olds. Fast track young offender punishments. Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients. Get 250,000 under 25's off benefits. No rise in Income tax, cut VAT, get inflation and interest rates to "as low as possible".

The Labour manifesto the way it was pitched, sounded like a fcuking IKEA wardrobe assembly sheet - no fcuker could understand it, no fcuker could work out how it was being paid for, other than some people were going to get taxed more (which accounted for less than 10% of the increased spending according to the IFS), we might have left the EU (then again we might not), and it was presented by someone with some of the worst approval ratings ever seen. There wasn't one policy announcement people could digest, before the next one came along. I listened to Rebecca Long-Bailey witter on, on one of the debates about the differences between capital and operational budgets in Government finance. Sure-fire vote winner, right there.

Generally, electorates as a whole don't want radical change, they will accept some incremental change. The electorate in the UK has always been right of centre and pretty much always will be for as long as I can see into the future. Trying to shift them full-on left as Labour tried in the 1980's didn't work then and won't work now.
Well I agree to an extent - but I'd like to pick at a few things. By radical I didn't mean "left wing" I just meant - they need something that offers people change. Brexit has been viewed as this "radical change" and embraced by Johnson.

The conditions that got Blair over the line were quite specific - a tired and crumbling Tory government - black Wednesday - Major's scandals and Blair a shiny new pup taking the John Smith spoils and adding a rock and roll edge to them just as Brit Pop was big...it was like a classic perfect storm. You're right he offered a cautious manifesto. And it worked a treat. And I liked him and his efforts in the main.

But the thing is that we know from various studies (and all the blind policy polling online) that centre left policies are far more popular with the electorate than centre right ones - yet centre right parties are usually far far more popular. So there is something about image and positioning and also showing people you can be the one to make a real difference to their lives. My fear is Blair and his politics - didn't help those that yesterday held their nose and voted Tory in Labour heartlands - and those people would not necessarily be keen on a Blair type - given they are the very people furious at his EU/immigration stance (I vehemently disagree with them btw - just explaining how I see their view).

Long Bailey is a dud. But who can compete with Boris - who can connect with people across the country across the political and Brexit divide? I don't think there is a clear "just bung a centrist in and it'll be fine" answer to that. I really do not. I wish it was that simple.

For all his faults - Corbyn still got a heck of a lot of people to vote for him - just not enough in the right places. But still - those people if you disregard them and let them wither - Labour won't be close to power - just as if you ignore the other side Labour cannot win. Its a very tough conundrum to solve. Almost like it needs someone completely new, untarnished and shiny...to offer hope.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Harry Genshaw » Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:47 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:06 pm

The difficult thing for Labour is this - they got more votes than Blair in 2005. More people voted for them this time round.
More in number of votes but a lesser share of the vote than Michael Foot managed?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:03 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:47 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:06 pm

The difficult thing for Labour is this - they got more votes than Blair in 2005. More people voted for them this time round.
More in number of votes but a lesser share of the vote than Michael Foot managed?
Yes - but it's numbers in isolation, too simplistic a view - the historic low turn out since 1945 was in 2001 followed by 2005. So Blair didn't need more votes. There are 7 million more people in the county now than there were in 2005.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Enoch » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:31 pm

They came a.very poor second. Not at all complicated.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:32 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:37 pm
Its a very tough conundrum to solve. Almost like it needs someone completely new, untarnished and shiny...to offer hope.
Yes, I'm not suggesting picking just anyone who happened to be nearer centre would work. Not sure even that person required is in current Labour party. If they are, I've not seen them yet...

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Worthy4England » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:34 pm

Enoch wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:31 pm
They came a.very poor second. Not at all complicated.
To suggest anything other is overthinking it. Which vested interests are already starting to do, no doubt

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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Harry Genshaw » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:47 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:03 pm
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:47 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:06 pm

The difficult thing for Labour is this - they got more votes than Blair in 2005. More people voted for them this time round.
More in number of votes but a lesser share of the vote than Michael Foot managed?
Yes - but it's numbers in isolation, too simplistic a view - the historic low turn out since 1945 was in 2001 followed by 2005. So Blair didn't need more votes. There are 7 million more people in the county now than there were in 2005.
Agreed. Election night has something akin to an Ashes series in Australia. You go to bed all excited and optimistic and then wake up to us all out for 83 or bloody John Major as prime minister!

That year, 1992, Major was seen as just pipping Kinnock to the post. I've since heard he won either more votes or a greater share (I forget which) than any other Tory PM since the war.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Post by Enoch » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:51 pm

Worthy4England wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:32 pm
Not sure even that person required is in current Labour party. If they are, I've not seen them yet...

Apart from when he came out for David Miliband in 2010, rather than run himself, the only Labour politician I've seen as a credible threat to the Tories for a good while is Alan Johnson. He's happy with his lot though and enjoying his retirement. No Marxist will ever win a UK election and until the labour movement finally manages to distance itself from the red wedge, it's swimming up stream.

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