The Politics Thread

[BWFC_Insane]

Genocidal liar? That's a bit...playground.

It was meant to be, but clearly I misjudged the sensitivity of current moods.

There's absolutely no point in dragging out hypothetical clap-trap regarding who'd have done well against who - to quote LP Hartley - "The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there".

I'm more interested in the current election and personally I'm no further forward in that I can't vote for either just now.

Going back to TV debates / interviews and so on, my personal thoughts as to why May refused to appear on a live TV debate are nothing to do with either perceived arrogance nor 'running scared'. I think it's simply because party advisors realised that the worst thing that could have possibly happened is that she'd have been ripped apart (ironic for a pro fox hunter) most certainly by Nicola Sturgeon. She's managed to run-down any scrap of leadership credibility she may have had single-handed, she's hardly needed a hand.

Thought you weren't a fan of Sturgeon?

[Prufrock]

Guess it depends what you mean by "fan". I wouldn't describe myself as a fan of hers but I think she's one of the most politically savvy operators around at the moment, and a clear stand out among the leaders.

It's the Lib Dems or a cock and balls for me. I might have been able to vote Labour if I wasnt literally voting for the terror-apologist himself.

[BWFC_Insane]

Guess it depends what you mean by "fan". I wouldn't describe myself as a fan of hers but I think she's one of the most politically savvy operators around at the moment, and a clear stand out among the leaders.

It's the Lib Dems or a cock and balls for me. I might have been able to vote Labour if I wasnt literally voting for the terror-apologist himself.

That is where I am. She's the best leader in British politics by a country mile. Like her policy or not. Take out the nationalism and her policies aren't half bad either.

[Bruce Rioja]

Genocidal liar? That's a bit...playground.

It was meant to be, but clearly I misjudged the sensitivity of current moods.

There's absolutely no point in dragging out hypothetical clap-trap regarding who'd have done well against who - to quote LP Hartley - "The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there".

I'm more interested in the current election and personally I'm no further forward in that I can't vote for either just now.

Going back to TV debates / interviews and so on, my personal thoughts as to why May refused to appear on a live TV debate are nothing to do with either perceived arrogance nor 'running scared'. I think it's simply because party advisors realised that the worst thing that could have possibly happened is that she'd have been ripped apart (ironic for a pro fox hunter) most certainly by Nicola Sturgeon. She's managed to run-down any scrap of leadership credibility she may have had single-handed, she's hardly needed a hand.

Thought you weren't a fan of Sturgeon?

I'm not. Thats hardly the point.

[BWFC_Insane]

Corbyn has finally grown a pair and is going to take part in the leaders debate tonight on BBC. He's calling for May to join him - doesn't seem like she will.

This election, against all odds, has suddenly gotten interesting. Hard to claim you are strong and stable if you aren't prepared to debate the other party leaders. Corbyn just has to avoid disaster tonight and I think that would be a big score for him.

There is absolutely no way for the Tories to lose this election, however, their hopes of a large majority surely now hang in the balance somewhat?

[Dr Hotdog]

She's an absolute chancer and not up to it.

She says: "He (Corbyn) ought to be paying more attention to thinking about the brexit negotiations - that's what I'm doing."

Hold the fecking phone Theresa, there's a flipping Election to win, one which, erm, you called, rather needlessly.

And now Trump is pulling the United States out of the Paris Climate Agreement. And we're fully in bed with that feck* more than we are with the mainland.

Send more fecking help.

[Prufrock]

She also said he was more interested in being on the telly. During a televised interview.

What a pair.

[boltonboris]

What a pair, indeed.

[boltonboris]

Farron is a slimey, snake skin salesman, but his little "look out of your window" comment was a cracker

[lovethesmellofnapalm]

Polls are going mental
YouGov has Tory lead down to 3 points
Dependent on turnout (YouGov presume 80% of 18-25 year olds will vote - seems unlikely but not impossible)
Chance to end 35 years of trickle down, free market neo liberal socially divisive rule.

C'mon Jezza

[Worthy4England]

Polls are going mental
YouGov has Tory lead down to 3 points
Dependent on turnout (YouGov presume 80% of 18-25 year olds will vote - seems unlikely but not impossible)
Chance to end 35 years of trickle down, free market neo liberal socially divisive rule.

C'mon Jezza

I'm fairly sure they did just this 2 years ago to the point of "hung parliament" as Cameron secured a majority...

[Harry Genshaw]

Farron is a slimey, snake skin salesman, but his little "look out of your window" comment was a cracker

Agreed. It sounded spontaneous and was both funny and cutting.

[boltonboris]

YouGov also 'predicted' a rather large victory for Remain

[Lord Kangana]

I'm pretty certain it was by 1%.

[BWFC_Insane]

I know a polling expert...his views...

1) Tory majority is nailed on.
2) The polls suggesting it will be closer are reliant on incredibly high turnouts from younger voters, levels we've not seen ever in history.
3) Labour have gained votes rather than any significant loss of Tory support. This is key. Were Tory voters showing signs of wavering the majority wouldn't be so sure. But the data available does not support any significant drop in support.
4) The Tory vote is far firmer than the Labour one. Which means they will likely have a solid turnout on the day whereas Labour's vote is far more up in the air. And still behind the Tory one raw numbers wise.
5) Some as yet unpublished data suggests that there could be an even greater swing from UKIP to the Tories than anticipated which puts under threat more Midlands and Northern Labour seats than was anticipated. This will partly be balanced by Labour vote strengthening in London.

[Worthy4England]

I know a polling expert...his views...

1) Tory majority is nailed on.
2) The polls suggesting it will be closer are reliant on incredibly high turnouts from younger voters, levels we've not seen ever in history.
3) Labour have gained votes rather than any significant loss of Tory support. This is key. Were Tory voters showing signs of wavering the majority wouldn't be so sure. But the data available does not support any significant drop in support.
4) The Tory vote is far firmer than the Labour one. Which means they will likely have a solid turnout on the day whereas Labour's vote is far more up in the air. And still behind the Tory one raw numbers wise.
5) Some as yet unpublished data suggests that there could be an even greater swing from UKIP to the Tories than anticipated which puts under threat more Midlands and Northern Labour seats than was anticipated. This will partly be balanced by Labour vote strengthening in London.

That's where my head's at. They could probably propose decapitating babies and still win

I can't decide with YouGov whether they're

a) Tories who always predict it closer to ensure a turn-out from the Tories
b) Labour who are just wishfully thinking and trying to turn-out Labour
c) Just pretty piss poor.

[TANGODANCER]

Being your totally last in line political commenter due to a lack of both interest and knowlege of politics, last night I watched (inadvertantly because it was on when I switched over from the tennis) a "debate" where the interviewer and a Lib Dem candidate spent some fifteen minutes (or so) each trying to shout down the other, one asking what sounded like meaningless questions and the other playing a sort of party game where he answered (tried) the previous question in answer to the current one. By the time it ended I was totally confused and almost left Coronation Street on (almost I say, because I switched the box off instead) . "The more I see of man"...etc...

[boltonboris]

I'm pretty certain it was by 1%.

P'raps, but still incorrect

[Lord Kangana]

Pretty much within the 3% stated tolerance though.

[BWFC_Insane]

Pretty much within the 3% stated tolerance though.

To be fair since 2015, polling has struggled. But in every case where it has got it wrong it has been an overestimation of 18-30 year olds turning out and an underestimation of pensioners turning out.

So if once again they have that wrong, then the Tories could end up with a 100+ majority as earlier polls showed.

My guess is that all we're seeing is the natural tightening of polls as the vote gets closer and that the final result will be a relatively large Tory majority.

If you propose the polls have been broadly correct then it was only natural for Labour's vote to improve from what would have possibly been their lowest point in over 50 years. Remember that potentially over 10% of the electorate have already voted.