The Politics Thread

[BWFC_Insane]

If Labour is winning Tamworth and Mid Beds the country is pretty sure they're the answer.

bi election wins in history.

It don't get more woke than that...World's falling to bits...

Realistically, if Labour can't win after austerity, Brexit, COVID, Johnson, Truss and Kamikwase, failing services and the highest tax burden in 70 years, then they should pack up

Whether they'll be able to do enough about it to last longer than 5 years, is tomorrow's problem...

I blame apple!

But yes and no. It’s only two years ago when there was zero prospect of labour winning and looked like an even bigger Tory majority on the cards.

However the Tory collapse has been spectacular.

And I agree about the rest there are no easy answers or quick fixes.

[Worthy4England]

All gone quiet this Trump stuff, which is not really surprising. What's the latest over there MW?

Over here, we've got our government putting migrants on a giant barge at an expense greater than it would have cost to put them all on an all-inclusive year long Round-the-World trip on a luxury cruise ship and they've all got feckin Legionnaires disease! All the while our Tory MP's are telling us is that all we have to do, is for the people of the United Kingdom to accept a complete removal of our human rights and we can put them all back on it and torpedo the bleeding thing

What a shithole we're living in

Pretty lively on Trump stuff atm. He and 19 others just got charged with racketeering in Georgia. Minimum mandatory sentence of 5 years, max of 20. If it stays in state court he cannot be pardonned so he wants it to go to federal court. He is also fuming about the judge in the DC case which may cost him dearly. His faithful are remaining faithful but some Republican congressmen have gone strangely silent. Four indictments in four different jurisdiction plus the civil case. News is evenly divided between him and Hawaii. Apparently nothing else is happening in the world.

It's warming up as Powell, Chesboro in Georgia have now flipped, he's on the line in the fraud case and Big Jack has hardly got going yet...

In other news, cases to prevent him even being on ballot are progressing.

All warming up nicely.

[Harry Genshaw]

If Labour is winning Tamworth and Mid Beds the country is pretty sure they're the answer.

Yeah I found it odd that someone fell for the Tory (and Corbyn supporter) propaganda that tried to downplay labours biggest ever bi election wins in history.

Well it doesn't feel like the run up to 97, with a huge momentum behind a charismatic candidate. This is more, to me anyway, voting not Tory, rather than an endorsement of Sir Keir. A mid term by election is one thing, but can he do it on a wet Thursday in Leigh or Hartlepool at a general?

[Montreal Wanderer]

All gone quiet this Trump stuff, which is not really surprising. What's the latest over there MW?

Over here, we've got our government putting migrants on a giant barge at an expense greater than it would have cost to put them all on an all-inclusive year long Round-the-World trip on a luxury cruise ship and they've all got feckin Legionnaires disease! All the while our Tory MP's are telling us is that all we have to do, is for the people of the United Kingdom to accept a complete removal of our human rights and we can put them all back on it and torpedo the bleeding thing

What a shithole we're living in

Pretty lively on Trump stuff atm. He and 19 others just got charged with racketeering in Georgia. Minimum mandatory sentence of 5 years, max of 20. If it stays in state court he cannot be pardonned so he wants it to go to federal court. He is also fuming about the judge in the DC case which may cost him dearly. His faithful are remaining faithful but some Republican congressmen have gone strangely silent. Four indictments in four different jurisdiction plus the civil case. News is evenly divided between him and Hawaii. Apparently nothing else is happening in the world.

It's warming up as Powell, Chesboro in Georgia have now flipped, he's on the line in the fraud case and Big Jack has hardly got going yet...

In other news, cases to prevent him even being on ballot are progressing.

All warming up nicely.

News now split between Israel and the Republican party's inability to elect a speaker paralyzing Congress. Trump only turns up occasionally while all this is going on - most recently being fined for breaking a gag order. He may be beginning to panic - I certainly would in his shoes. Time to move to Brazil on his private jet.

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, know it's not leading headline, Monty. But it's just lying a fraction under the surface on pretty much a daily basis. Can't decide whether it would actually strengthen his base if they dumped him in pokey for a bit for contempt or whether it would just help things quieten down...

As for Speaker, McCarthy reaped what he sowed with the crazy 8. If I was GOP Rep, I'd nominated Gaetz just to watch him get 8 votes. Jordan was just laughable.

Spotted they just flipped Ellis too (probably fairly minor but they all count) as Trump tries to pretend he doesn't know who Powell is...gonna end in tears, just hope they're all his.

[Montreal Wanderer]

Yeah, know it's not leading headline, Monty. But it's just lying a fraction under the surface on pretty much a daily basis. Can't decide whether it would actually strengthen his base if they dumped him in pokey for a bit for contempt or whether it would just help things quieten down...

As for Speaker, McCarthy reaped what he sowed with the crazy 8. If I was GOP Rep, I'd nominated Gaetz just to watch him get 8 votes. Jordan was just laughable.

Spotted they just flipped Ellis too (probably fairly minor but they all count) as Trump tries to pretend he doesn't know who Powell is...gonna end in tears, just hope they're all his.

It is getting more serious for him. Ellis is quite important because she was "in the room" while everything was going on, and stated she believed the lies that more experienced lawyers told her (which doesn't look good for America's Mayor). Today Donald got fined a second time for violating his gag order, and stormed out of court. The Republicans finally selected a speaker - unfortunately he was an election denier (not only voted against accepting the elector's slate but framed a letter suporting the Texas challenge, asking all Republican Representatives to sign, saying he would be showing it to Trump). He is strongly opposed to abortion and gay rights, and apparently wants funding for Israel but not Ukraine. A good friend of Jim Jordan, though not quite so annoying. Not a good choice in many ways.

So the circus continues. Will Mark Meadows be the next domino to fall?

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, know it's not leading headline, Monty. But it's just lying a fraction under the surface on pretty much a daily basis. Can't decide whether it would actually strengthen his base if they dumped him in pokey for a bit for contempt or whether it would just help things quieten down...

As for Speaker, McCarthy reaped what he sowed with the crazy 8. If I was GOP Rep, I'd nominated Gaetz just to watch him get 8 votes. Jordan was just laughable.

Spotted they just flipped Ellis too (probably fairly minor but they all count) as Trump tries to pretend he doesn't know who Powell is...gonna end in tears, just hope they're all his.

It is getting more serious for him. Ellis is quite important because she was "in the room" while everything was going on, and stated she believed the lies that more experienced lawyers told her (which doesn't look good for America's Mayor). Today Donald got fined a second time for violating his gag order, and stormed out of court. The Republicans finally selected a speaker - unfortunately he was an election denier (not only voted against accepting the elector's slate but framed a letter suporting the Texas challenge, asking all Republican Representatives to sign, saying he would be showing it to Trump). He is strongly opposed to abortion and gay rights, and apparently wants funding for Israel but not Ukraine. A good friend of Jim Jordan, though not quite so annoying. Not a good choice in many ways.

So the circus continues. Will Mark Meadows be the next domino to fall?

Meadows was reported earlier in the week as at least having the basis for a flip agreement, if not already flipped in the Jack Smith case, which if you're looking at someone right in the middle (and we believe they now have more of his comms than the initial 2,000 messages turned to J6).

Then there's going to be some compelling narrative against Trump, who's already denying he's met some of them and at the same time pointing to the fact they were advising him.

Speaker was a "hey look, he's Jim Jordan, but most people haven't heard of him pick.." to my mind. Some of his positions as you mention are horrifying...

[Worthy4England]

What an absolute tw@t Braverman is. Her latest stunt is aimed at homeless people in tents.

"Braverman has formally pitched a ban on tents in urban areas - except on your own land or the back garden - as well as a new civil penalty for charities to stop them giving out tents to homeless people for free," one source told the FT."

Let's not resolve the cause, just put penalties on the outcome. I understand lots of people might not want someone in a tent down the bottom of their house, but this isn't going to solve the problem.

[Harry Genshaw]

^ Hear hear!
I only found out today that 'A small Eva Braun' is an anagram of Suella Braverman

[Worthy4England]

^ Hear hear!
I only found out today that 'A small Eva Braun' is an anagram of Suella Braverman

[BWFC_Insane]

What an absolute tw@t Braverman is. Her latest stunt is aimed at homeless people in tents.

"Braverman has formally pitched a ban on tents in urban areas - except on your own land or the back garden - as well as a new civil penalty for charities to stop them giving out tents to homeless people for free," one source told the FT."

Let's not resolve the cause, just put penalties on the outcome. I understand lots of people might not want someone in a tent down the bottom of their house, but this isn't going to solve the problem.

I know someone who has had dealings with her and the words ‘think of someone who is stupid then multiply that by a million and you still aren’t close to how unremittingly thick she really is’ were ushered once in conversation.

Like a lot of these politicians she’s surrounded herself with a bunch of right wing headbangers and is too stupid to ever question anything she’s told.

So when she says ‘most homelessness is a choice’ she actually does believe that as she has no counter information to work from.

[Montreal Wanderer]

^ Hear hear!
I only found out today that 'A small Eva Braun' is an anagram of Suella Braverman

Amusing but,alas, not accurate. Suella Braverman has 15 letters, 3 a's, 2 r's and 2 e's. 'A small Eva Braun' has 14 letters, 4 a's, 1 r and 1 e. But all is not lost. You can use 'smaller Eva Braun' and be spot on.
Best wishes from your pedantic Canadian friend,
MW.

[BWFC_Insane]

If Labour is winning Tamworth and Mid Beds the country is pretty sure they're the answer.

Yeah I found it odd that someone fell for the Tory (and Corbyn supporter) propaganda that tried to downplay labours biggest ever bi election wins in history.

Well it doesn't feel like the run up to 97, with a huge momentum behind a charismatic candidate. This is more, to me anyway, voting not Tory, rather than an endorsement of Sir Keir. A mid term by election is one thing, but can he do it on a wet Thursday in Leigh or Hartlepool at a general?

Just noticed this but I mean I don’t really get the comparison to 1997 anyway. It’s not like any given situation has to be 1997. And if we really want to compare - these results are better than anything Labour achieved in the run up to that election in terms of swing….which is the metric that matters. But in 1997 Major had sat on a tiny majority that was gone by 1997 whereas the Tories now have a big majority. The fact is that no party has won an overall majority from the other having a majority so we are sort of in unprecedented times IF Labour are to turn this round.

And ironically although we tend to view history through a certain lens in 1996 after similar sorts of wins the right wing media and Tory press were pumping out this exact line ‘there is no enthusiasm for Blair we just need to mobilise the right wing vote’. There are receipts available for that.

It’s undeniable that enthusiasm for any politician is lower now than then. I also don’t particularly think Starmer is anyone’s first choice or even second or third choice. He is probably the best we will get in the current climate.

[Worthy4England]

Feels a bit "some of this" and "a chunk of that." Whilst it is true to say Major had a small majority (in parliamentary seats), it's pretty easy to overlook that he polled 14.1m votes to Kinnock's 11.6m in 1992, and the seat gap between Tory/Labour was 65 so yes in overall majority terms it was pretty slender, the gap between Tory and Labour was significant by most measures.

1997 - Blair gets 13.5m votes which is 0.6m lower than Major got 5 years earlier and scoops up 80 odd more seats. After 97, what we were generally seeing was votes leech away from both Tory&Lab...

Not sure I get the part about on party won a majority from the other party having a majority? Do you mean at the point the election was called?

We can only really comment about our own echo chambers, but it doesn't feel to me like any Tories I know - and I know a good few - are contemplating voting for Labour at all. Not a one. They might not get their ass outta bed to vote Tory (and they might give Reform a go), but hell is going to have to freeze over for them to vote Labour.

[BWFC_Insane]

Feels a bit "some of this" and "a chunk of that." Whilst it is true to say Major had a small majority (in parliamentary seats), it's pretty easy to overlook that he polled 14.1m votes to Kinnock's 11.6m in 1992, and the seat gap between Tory/Labour was 65 so yes in overall majority terms it was pretty slender, the gap between Tory and Labour was significant by most measures.

1997 - Blair gets 13.5m votes which is 0.6m lower than Major got 5 years earlier and scoops up 80 odd more seats. After 97, what we were generally seeing was votes leech away from both Tory&Lab...

Not sure I get the part about on party won a majority from the other party having a majority? Do you mean at the point the election was called?

We can only really comment about our own echo chambers, but it doesn't feel to me like any Tories I know - and I know a good few - are contemplating voting for Labour at all. Not a one. They might not get their ass outta bed to vote Tory (and they might give Reform a go), but hell is going to have to freeze over for them to vote Labour.

Since 1997 the Tories have increased their share of the popular vote in every single subsequent general election. Somewhat chilling but also true.

As for switching voters I think the reality is that instances where an ‘almost always Tory voter’ will vote Labour or visa versa is pretty low (BES says usually well under 10% most of the time) inspite of the way it’s often presented. Swings and the like are talked about but they almost never represent that…usually they represent two things…genuine floating voters switching and ability to turnout the vote of either main party……the similarity between now and 97 is the high level of anti Tory tactical voting (that is apparent in locals and bi elections) making the Labour (and LD) vote very efficient at winning seats at least on the face of it.

And yeah I mean at point of election I don’t think a majority one way has ever been flipped….which maybe tells us generally the winds of change in British politics turn very slowly…over maybe a decade rather than a few years. This period now is unprecedented in that you go back to mid 2021 and the Tories looked set to increase their majority again under Johnson with Labour’s biggest hope being maybe taking a few seats back.

[Harry Genshaw]

^ Hear hear!
I only found out today that 'A small Eva Braun' is an anagram of Suella Braverman

Amusing but,alas, not accurate. Suella Braverman has 15 letters, 3 a's, 2 r's and 2 e's. 'A small Eva Braun' has 14 letters, 4 a's, 1 r and 1 e. But all is not lost. You can use 'smaller Eva Braun' and be spot on.
Best wishes from your pedantic Canadian friend,
MW.

Apologies, it was my error MW. It was smaller rather than small. It was used as a cryptic crossword clue in one of the nationals so it had to be correct. Crossword enthusiasts are the only folk more pedantic than Canadian ex pats

[Worthy4England]

Feels a bit "some of this" and "a chunk of that." Whilst it is true to say Major had a small majority (in parliamentary seats), it's pretty easy to overlook that he polled 14.1m votes to Kinnock's 11.6m in 1992, and the seat gap between Tory/Labour was 65 so yes in overall majority terms it was pretty slender, the gap between Tory and Labour was significant by most measures.

1997 - Blair gets 13.5m votes which is 0.6m lower than Major got 5 years earlier and scoops up 80 odd more seats. After 97, what we were generally seeing was votes leech away from both Tory&Lab...

Not sure I get the part about on party won a majority from the other party having a majority? Do you mean at the point the election was called?

We can only really comment about our own echo chambers, but it doesn't feel to me like any Tories I know - and I know a good few - are contemplating voting for Labour at all. Not a one. They might not get their ass outta bed to vote Tory (and they might give Reform a go), but hell is going to have to freeze over for them to vote Labour.

Since 1997 the Tories have increased their share of the popular vote in every single subsequent general election. Somewhat chilling but also true.

As for switching voters I think the reality is that instances where an ‘almost always Tory voter’ will vote Labour or visa versa is pretty low (BES says usually well under 10% most of the time) inspite of the way it’s often presented. Swings and the like are talked about but they almost never represent that…usually they represent two things…genuine floating voters switching and ability to turnout the vote of either main party……the similarity between now and 97 is the high level of anti Tory tactical voting (that is apparent in locals and bi elections) making the Labour (and LD) vote very efficient at winning seats at least on the face of it.

And yeah I mean at point of election I don’t think a majority one way has ever been flipped….which maybe tells us generally the winds of change in British politics turn very slowly…over maybe a decade rather than a few years. This period now is unprecedented in that you go back to mid 2021 and the Tories looked set to increase their majority again under Johnson with Labour’s biggest hope being maybe taking a few seats back.

Yeah - I mean I could see Tory's "not winning" but I could also envisage Labour "not winning" either...Not sure about Tory's increasing their share of the vote since 97, in absolute numbers they crashed after 1997, just that Labour went backwards too - share in 1997 was 40.x%, William Hague managed nearer 30%. Michael Howard slightly better at 31%

[BWFC_Insane]

Tory vote shares…
97 - 30.7
01 - 31.7
05 - 32.6
10 - 36.1
15 - 36.8
17 - 42.3
19 - 43.6

So I mean their share has gone up every election since 97.

[Hoboh]

Put simply,

The stay at homes will decide the next election.

Figure I might join them and wait for the inevitable melt down.

[Worthy4England]

Tory vote shares…
97 - 30.7
01 - 31.7
05 - 32.6
10 - 36.1
15 - 36.8
17 - 42.3
19 - 43.6

So I mean their share has gone up every election since 97.

Aye gotcha!