Scientists jailed for not predicting earthquake

[Verbal]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wow.

[malcd1]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626

Wow.

I read this earlier. Very strange.

There is a quote from the BBC correspondent saying they were jailed not for the failure to predict the earthquake but not warning of the dangers. I'm not sure there is much difference when dealing with natural occurrences like earthquakes.

But the authorities who pursued the seven defendants stressed that the case was never about the power of prediction - it was about what was interpreted to be an inadequate characterisation of the risks; of being misleadingly reassuring about the dangers that faced their city.

[Little Green Man]

The whole of the Italian peninsula is in a zone of seismic activity. The town of L'Aquila has existed for centuries and throughout its history it has suffered devastating earthquakes with death tolls in the thousands. It didn't require the state geophysicists and seismolgists to tell the population that they were in peril. If seismic events were predictable then I could understand the need for an inquiry. The fact is they're not.

This judicial sentence is disgusting but guess we shouldn't be surprised - it is Italy we're talking about.

[Montreal Wanderer]

One of my friends is a vulcanologist of sorts. When I told her she should be careful in any predictions she responded: "I am, at least, prudent in my science. Political correctness in science is serious while the expectations of the public in what we are capable of is unrealizable. Had I been studying the Aguila situation, I would have offered something like -- 1 chance in 50 of a damaging earthquake in the next 25 years. We can't know what Vulcan is doing in the underworld. We can only offer risk estimates of the consequence of his play."

Given the precision of this science these sentences are utterly absurd and represent something I would not have expected from a Western European legal system.

[Dujon]

I'm flabbergasted that such a decision has been made and also confused as to how charges could have been laid in the first place. The article doesn't say, so I'm assuming The State was the complainant.

It seems to me that if an appeal is dismissed then the ramifications for future science - of any kind - within Italy (at least) are horrendous. I can also see a sudden spike in the number of Italian scientists seeking overseas posts. Many areas of science are imprecise which is why they exist. Science is not a religion it is the art of seeking the 'why' of the world and where the world fits into the universe as a whole. I wonder how many seismologists can claim a prediction ratio of better than one in a hundred after analysing such data as are available.

Yours in disgust,

[Lord Kangana]

Are there any high calibre scientists worth poaching? Should we get on the blower, now?

[Lost Leopard Spot]

The human race is dumbing down faster than you can say Richter Scale.

[David Lee's Hair]

I was surprised then saw it was in Italy... then realised that in a country that constantly votes Berlusconi into power anything is possible....

[ohjimmyjimmy]

Did the Kaiser Chiefs not get jailed because a riot only happened about 4 years after they predicted one?

[CrazyHorse]

Did the Kaiser Chiefs not get jailed because a riot only happened about 4 years after they predicted one?

No, they were jailed for crimes against music, the talentless Yorkshire shitehawks.

[thebish]

One of my friends is a vulcanologist of sorts. When I told her she should be careful in any predictions she responded: "I am, at least, prudent in my science. Political correctness in science is serious while the expectations of the public in what we are capable of is unrealizable. Had I been studying the Aguila situation, I would have offered something like -- 1 chance in 50 of a damaging earthquake in the next 25 years. We can't know what Vulcan is doing in the underworld. We can only offer risk estimates of the consequence of his play."

Given the precision of this science these sentences are utterly absurd and represent something I would not have expected from a Western European legal system.

well - it's heartening to know that scientists are basing their predictions on guesses about the capriciousness of ancient Roman gods!

[Lord Kangana]

That would be an ecumenical matter.

[Gary the Enfield]

That would be an ecumenical matter.

[Lord Kangana]

Thats the one!

[Montreal Wanderer]

One of my friends is a vulcanologist of sorts. When I told her she should be careful in any predictions she responded: "I am, at least, prudent in my science. Political correctness in science is serious while the expectations of the public in what we are capable of is unrealizable. Had I been studying the Aguila situation, I would have offered something like -- 1 chance in 50 of a damaging earthquake in the next 25 years. We can't know what Vulcan is doing in the underworld. We can only offer risk estimates of the consequence of his play."

Given the precision of this science these sentences are utterly absurd and represent something I would not have expected from a Western European legal system.

well - it's heartening to know that scientists are basing their predictions on guesses about the capriciousness of ancient Roman gods!

Indeed, but I think my friend is accurate in suggesting the impossibility of predicting where and when something will go bang given the current state of the science. If as she suggests the closest they could come would be one chance in fifty of something happening in the next 25 years, then the Italians were probably correct in downplaying the immediate danger thus avoiding panic - and only wrong in retrospect.