Brexit or Britin

[Worthy4England]

If the Government are going to live or die by the economics and policies underlying the decision then it's really a decision they should make. That said, they promised a referendum so we're having one.

[thebish]

If the Government are going to live or die by the economics and policies underlying the decision then it's really a decision they should make. That said, they promised a referendum so we're having one.

oh aye - I'd have been perfectly happy without a referendum - it won't settle anything (see scotland)! - but then I would say that, wouldn't I!

[Rjs37]

A correspondence from your foreighn ambassador in the "just don't know" republic:

So this is a situation where a wrong decision could have appalling effects on the country in many areas (if what we hear from both sides has any truth) and our venerable government of world leaders answer is to throw it up in the air and ask, "What do you folks think? You decide! "

Both sides are massively exaggerating their arguments with outrageous scaremongering.

Personally I don't see either decision having appalling effects on the country - not on its own at least. There are situations with both options that could make those decisions retrospectively appalling but foresight is a wonderful thing. In either option, I don't really see all that much changing for the average person, at least in terms of noticeable changes. We'll still go to work, earn a salary, hate politicians, love eating, sleeping and watching football.

Even in the worst case economic forecasts (it's a stretch to call it a forecast), GDP will still rise, just not by as much. It's hard to miss something that never happened. There will obviously be some key differences and the changes post-Brexit would diverge over time, as we introduce our own laws and EU introduces their laws.

I am glad to see that Brexit economy document, because there's been a severe lack of detailed analysis made from the Brexit campaign. In terms of what we'll do, what will happen etc. Much of that is because, those in the campaign aren't going to be the ones making the decisions if Brexit went ahead. That would be the people saying that we're risking war by leaving.

Scaremongering from the two campaigns was (as annoying as it is) to be expected, though I do wish the government itself had remained impartial on the debate. They should have been providing clear information on what they would do should Brexit occur. They've surely got a Plan B in place, but they wouldn't dare think of sharing it.

[Hoboh]

Cameron does not respect anyone. Cameron has attempted to couch his Remain appeal in patriotic terms saying 'I want to show you that if you love this country, if you want to keep it strong in the world and keep our people safe our membership of the EU is one of the tools'. This is absurd. The purpose of the EU is to move away from notions of sovereignty and patriotism in favour of the European Superstate. How can Cameron talk of loyalty and nationalism when this is the reality?

Cameron promised us all a radical change in the UK's relationship with the EU, only for him to collapse at the first whiff of opposition from Brussels. The result was his pathetic damp squib of a deal. Cameron's lack of determination is an indicator of chronic weakness and absence of purpose. His impulse to retreat is profoundly undemocratic because it gives too much power to unaccountable, self appointed pressure groups, lobbyists, trade unions and the EU, who learn that they can get their way by making a lot of noise.

In a question and answer session with senior MPs, Cameron insisted Turkey would not join the European Union for decades. Also he claimed the issue should not influence the outcome of the in-out EU referendum. Turkey joining the EU would seriously undermine the government's attempt to reduce net annual migration. In December 2014, Cameron stated 'in terms of Turkish membership of the EU, I very much support that. That's a longstanding position of British foreign policy which I support'. Cameron has handed over £1.8 billion to five countries including Turkey to help prepare them for future EU membership.

Cameron's words do not match his actions. He is making us the laughing stock of the world.

[Hoboh]

Anyone care to explain why a single market and tariff free trade needs the free, mass movement of people?

[bedwetter2]

Anyone care to explain why a single market and tariff free trade needs the free, mass movement of people?

It doesn't.
It is obvious to me that the EU-wide unrestricted movement policy was the prelude to ever closer union and an eventual "United States of Europe".
The direction of travel promoted by the Commission and Council of Europe has not changed.

[thebish]

I think it is far from clear that voting to leave will result in us NOT signing up to an arrangement where we opt-in to the free movement of labour... some parts of the leave campaign seem to be talking about "Flexcit": a version of the Norway option in respect of both the Single Market and free movement (Switzerland and Norway both accept free movement of EU workers)

[thebish]

Bozza is in Cornwall today... ahhh - cornwall - wave a pasty...

[Hoboh]

Bozza is in Cornwall today... ahhh - cornwall - wave a pasty...

He'd have a problem waving a tin mine.

[Worthy4England]

Anyone care to explain why a single market and tariff free trade needs the free, mass movement of people?

Did anyone ever say it did?

[Hoboh]

Anyone care to explain why a single market and tariff free trade needs the free, mass movement of people?

Did anyone ever say it did?

Wellll, according to most Europhiles one is not possible without the other.

[Worthy4England]

Anyone care to explain why a single market and tariff free trade needs the free, mass movement of people?

Did anyone ever say it did?

Wellll, according to most Europhiles one is not possible without the other.

I didn't realize you'd head there.

I guess it depends what question you're asking "most Europhiles" (Are you producing French translations etc. for French Europhiles when you're asking them?) If you're asking them whether free movement of goods, services, capital and persons have always been a tenet of the club we joined in the 70's then the answer is yes. So if that was the question, then you'd get the response that one is not possible without the other.

If you're asking them do you think the EU will divorce the two, to strike a Trade Agreement with the UK, then the answer is unlikely to be anything other than no. So you'd probably get the response that one is not possible without the other here too.

If you're asking them is there any significant economic argument that free movement of people has a direct impact on trade agreement duties - then the answer is probably no/or fairly limited/marginal. You should probably get a different answer here.

The free movement of people was in the Treaty of Rome in 1957 (it's impact then is not the same as it is now - less EU member states and the rights were different). But it's always been there as one of the 4 "pillars" of being in the club. Freedom of movement for Goods, Services, Capital and People. It's not new. It's been there 60 years. So Bedwetter is right, the direction of travel hasn't changed for 60 years, nor for the 40-odd years we've been in the Club. The rules on social security co-ordination were originally laid out in 1958. Restrictions on movement and residence - 1968. All prior to us joining in the first place.

I realize this could be counted as undemocratic, as we didn't get to vote on the rules they made up prior to us joining. Just like we won't get to vote on the rules they make up, should we leave.

[bedwetter2]

I think it is far from clear that voting to leave will result in us NOT signing up to an arrangement where we opt-in to the free movement of labour... some parts of the leave campaign seem to be talking about "Flexcit": a version of the Norway option in respect of both the Single Market and free movement (Switzerland and Norway both accept free movement of EU workers)

Switzerland are just about to vote in a referendum as to whether they should continue to accept free movement from the EU. 25% of their population comes from within the EU (born in EU countries) and they appear to think that is too much. Usual problems of compatibility of way of life, stretching of services to their limit and mosque building everywhere they care to look.

[Worthy4England]

I think it is far from clear that voting to leave will result in us NOT signing up to an arrangement where we opt-in to the free movement of labour... some parts of the leave campaign seem to be talking about "Flexcit": a version of the Norway option in respect of both the Single Market and free movement (Switzerland and Norway both accept free movement of EU workers)

Switzerland are just about to vote in a referendum as to whether they should continue to accept free movement from the EU. 25% of their population comes from within the EU (born in EU countries) and they appear to think that is too much. Usual problems of compatibility of way of life, stretching of services to their limit and mosque building everywhere they care to look.

I think if we got anywhere near that number, we should have a referendum.

How can they see any mosques when they're the other side of an Alp?

[thebish]

I think it is far from clear that voting to leave will result in us NOT signing up to an arrangement where we opt-in to the free movement of labour... some parts of the leave campaign seem to be talking about "Flexcit": a version of the Norway option in respect of both the Single Market and free movement (Switzerland and Norway both accept free movement of EU workers)

Switzerland are just about to vote in a referendum as to whether they should continue to accept free movement from the EU. 25% of their population comes from within the EU (born in EU countries) and they appear to think that is too much. Usual problems of compatibility of way of life, stretching of services to their limit and mosque building everywhere they care to look.

indeed... I suspect the EU won't budge on this - the swiss can vote against it, but could not implement that without losing a lot of their market access - they have a choice to make... From what I have read - they are not happy with their market access - even as it is (never mind losing more of it) - and frustrated by their lack of control (surprise!) Their previous referendum instructed the swiss govt to negotiate free movement with the EU - the EU didn't budge.

had they managed to negotiate some restrictions on free movement and keep their market access - that would have been a coup for Brexit - but they didn't... as I understand it (and i am no swiss expert!) they now have a choice to make balancing market access and free movement... it'll be interesting to see which way they go.

(it should also be noted that we are different to the Swiss in that we didn't join Schengen - and they did.)

[Bruce Rioja]

Bozza is in Cornwall today... ahhh - cornwall - wave a pasty...

He can't be in Cornwall else one of those 4ucking herring gulls would've swooped down and nabbed it!

[bedwetter2]

I think it is far from clear that voting to leave will result in us NOT signing up to an arrangement where we opt-in to the free movement of labour... some parts of the leave campaign seem to be talking about "Flexcit": a version of the Norway option in respect of both the Single Market and free movement (Switzerland and Norway both accept free movement of EU workers)

Switzerland are just about to vote in a referendum as to whether they should continue to accept free movement from the EU. 25% of their population comes from within the EU (born in EU countries) and they appear to think that is too much. Usual problems of compatibility of way of life, stretching of services to their limit and mosque building everywhere they care to look.

indeed... I suspect the EU won't budge on this - the swiss can vote against it, but could not implement that without losing a lot of their market access - they have a choice to make... From what I have read - they are not happy with their market access - even as it is (never mind losing more of it) - and frustrated by their lack of control (surprise!) Their previous referendum instructed the swiss govt to negotiate free movement with the EU - the EU didn't budge.

had they managed to negotiate some restrictions on free movement and keep their market access - that would have been a coup for Brexit - but they didn't... as I understand it (and i am no swiss expert!) they now have a choice to make balancing market access and free movement... it'll be interesting to see which way they go.

(it should also be noted that we are different to the Swiss in that we didn't join Schengen - and they did.)

There is a tradition of direct democracy in Switzerland and despite the established political party leaders being keen to maintain their current arrangements I'll wager that the population may well tell them to get stuffed and bugger off to Strasbourg.
Market access? What does that mean? Are you going to stop buying Swiss watches or consuming their chocolate? Is the EU going to erect walls at the underground borders of the Large Hadron Collider, CERN? Are people going to stop holidaying there? Is the road and rail traffic going to take a detour to avoid going through those tunnels to Italy or south eastern Europe? Do behave.

[Worthy4England]

Really, consumer buying of chocolate and watches isn't going to make much of a dent against their much larger exports - precious metals/pharmachem. So unlikely to make a difference at a consumer level.
Having duty on large scale volumes of precious metals and pharma-chem products which is 50% of their export base, might be more of a problem...

[Prufrock]

Free movement of people is less about goods (though it does making shifting them easier) and more about services - something we may be a teensy bit reliant on.

[Montreal Wanderer]

Anyone care to explain why a single market and tariff free trade needs the free, mass movement of people?

Did anyone ever say it did?

Wellll, according to most Europhiles one is not possible without the other.

Canada is in a single market with the USA and Mexico. No free movement of people, in fact stricter border controls in the last few years. There is even talk of a wall somewhere....