League One, 2022/23

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The Bolton (evening) news have published an article on the remaining fixtures or all those in the hunt.
Interesting reading , Derby looks difficult whereas ours look the most favourable of the lot.
Am I allowed to post a link ? If so here it is with acknowledgement to the Bolton news website.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/23398059.amp/

Please do, mate (or rather thank you for doing so). Good to have reading material and the BN site will be glad of the traffic.

Couple of years ago I did a run-in spreadsheet. Am thinking of doing similar after Wembley, depending how it shakes up.

Derby are making some "simple" games look difficult at the moment - although TBF before Saturday they'd only lost to Plymouth, Barnsley and Wycombe. They may come again - Ipswich have - but hopefully not....

[BWFC_Insane]

The Bolton (evening) news have published an article on the remaining fixtures or all those in the hunt.
Interesting reading , Derby looks difficult whereas ours look the most favourable of the lot.
Am I allowed to post a link ? If so here it is with acknowledgement to the Bolton news website.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/23398059.amp/

Please do, mate (or rather thank you for doing so). Good to have reading material and the BN site will be glad of the traffic.

Couple of years ago I did a run-in spreadsheet. Am thinking of doing similar after Wembley, depending how it shakes up.

Derby are making some "simple" games look difficult at the moment - although TBF before Saturday they'd only lost to Plymouth, Barnsley and Wycombe. They may come again - Ipswich have - but hopefully not....

Next Saturday is Peterborough v Derby. Who do we want to win that? Derby for me.

The bottom line for me now is we're at best going to finish 5th and therefore there is little advantage in 5th or 6th.....indeed if Plymouth did drop out into 3rd they might be the best bet...Ipswich or Barnsley on their form...not likely.

So we need Derby to win that if at all possible.

Draw would be ok.

Its not the end of the world if Peterborough win but I rather think that just drives up the points total a little.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Next Saturday is Peterborough v Derby. Who do we want to win that?

Point apiece and eight red cards.

[brommers95]

The Bolton (evening) news have published an article on the remaining fixtures or all those in the hunt.
Interesting reading , Derby looks difficult whereas ours look the most favourable of the lot.
Am I allowed to post a link ? If so here it is with acknowledgement to the Bolton news website.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/23398059.amp/

Please do, mate (or rather thank you for doing so). Good to have reading material and the BN site will be glad of the traffic.

Couple of years ago I did a run-in spreadsheet. Am thinking of doing similar after Wembley, depending how it shakes up.

Derby are making some "simple" games look difficult at the moment - although TBF before Saturday they'd only lost to Plymouth, Barnsley and Wycombe. They may come again - Ipswich have - but hopefully not....

Cheers DSB for reminding me that I made a run-in spreadsheet a few weeks ago so I opened it up and decided to turn it into the below (probably best to click on the tweet to see the picture more clearly on Twitter)

Plymouth with (at this point in time) the 'easiest' run-in, facing teams with a current average position of 16.89. Wanderers (the real ones) rather encouragingly have the second easiest, facing teams with an average position of 16.38.

The pretend Wanderers and Pompey rather worryingly though also have quite favourable run-ins.

If Salop sneak into the playoffs they'll have earned it, with the 'hardest' run in facing teams with an average current league position of 7.67.

I've also slightly amended the graphic to the below, which depicts games against relegation threatened teams (mid blue) as harder than those against mid-table 'on the beach teams' (light blue), as anecdotally at least, it seems that those down the bottom always seem to pull a few surprise results out the bag when fighting to stay up.

*Disclaimer figures/fixture details may not be 100% accurate.

[bw@bw]

Barnsley v Sheff Wed now on Sky

Already 2-0 after less than 15 mins

Very poor defending from Wednesday

[knobpolisher]

Regarding Brommers analysis above , it's also in our interests that the top 4 stay bunched up tight until the very end of season. If push comes to shove in the final match we may need Sheffield Wed to beat Derby and Barnsley to beat Peterborough

[knobpolisher]

And Sheffield Wed pull one back

[Worthy4England]

The pretend Wanderers and Pompey rather worryingly though also have quite favourable run-ins.

Bizarrely, when I ran the top 8 sides through what I thought was likely results to the end of the season, (which didn't include Pompey at the time), it was Pompey that the "big online spreadsheet" had coming in as 6th...

[knobpolisher]

And Sheffield Wed equalise

[bw@bw]

And Sheffield Wed equalise

Barnsley got a third

And a 4th

[Harry Genshaw]

Amazing runs that both teams are on. Barnsley haven't looked back since we beat em! They've got to fancy nicking an automatic place now

[officer_dibble]

Plymouth haven’t had much of a stutter, and Ipswich are flying!

It’s 3 from them 4, surely…

[Harry Genshaw]

It's a fascinating promotion race. A couple of months back Derby were flying, Ipswich were stuttering and Barnsley were nowhere. I imagine some Wednesday fans will be getting jittery at their dropped points these last two matches.

It's a high bar and I'm not sure we're up to the standards that are being set yet. Great that we're still in the mix though.

[The_Gun]

The Luca Connell thing still rankles with me. He's the only good player we've produced in ages, and he's now helping a direct rival push for promotion. Frigging annoying.

[boltonboris]

He's a very good, technical player and he's tough, too.

I'd have him back in a heartbeat

[DJBlu]

The Luca Connell thing still rankles with me. He's the only good player we've produced in ages, and he's now helping a direct rival push for promotion. Frigging annoying.

He forced/wanted the move.

Don't forget that. Plenty could have stayed and weathered the storm, but most chose not too. They shall be put in the same pile as the rest. Feck em.

[The_Gun]

The Luca Connell thing still rankles with me. He's the only good player we've produced in ages, and he's now helping a direct rival push for promotion. Frigging annoying.

He forced/wanted the move.

Don't forget that. Plenty could have stayed and weathered the storm, but most chose not too. They shall be put in the same pile as the rest. Feck em.

Yeah I know, and I don't blame him at all because we had awful ownership and were in a terrible situation at the time. Doesn't stop it being annoying.

[BWFC_Insane]

The Luca Connell thing still rankles with me. He's the only good player we've produced in ages, and he's now helping a direct rival push for promotion. Frigging annoying.

He forced/wanted the move.

Don't forget that. Plenty could have stayed and weathered the storm, but most chose not too. They shall be put in the same pile as the rest. Feck em.

He was a kid - I don't blame him . But lets put into perspective. He went to Celtic after a few games - didn't make the grade there and is now back in league one.

Decent league one player though.

[The_Gun]

The Luca Connell thing still rankles with me. He's the only good player we've produced in ages, and he's now helping a direct rival push for promotion. Frigging annoying.

He forced/wanted the move.

Don't forget that. Plenty could have stayed and weathered the storm, but most chose not too. They shall be put in the same pile as the rest. Feck em.

He was a kid - I don't blame him . But lets put into perspective. He went to Celtic after a few games - didn't make the grade there and is now back in league one.

Decent league one player though.

Celtic didn't seem to give him much of a chance, but it's a big club anyway so not much shame in not making the grade there. At 21 he's definitely a Championship calibre player, and is probably now worth 5x what we sold him for.

The situation was what it was, but given our poor track record of producing/retaining talent, stuff like this does annoy me. Probably doubly so because we don't appear to have any decent youth prospects on our books these days.

[jmjhb]

We're up to 5th as things stand right now.