The Politics Thread

[Worthy4England]

They could start with a few things like...

Stop trying to be pound shop Tories
Stop trying to cut things from old and the vulnerable
Help councils fix some of the things people most want fixed
At least look like you're trying tax rich folk and big companies
Stop pretending Trump is going to do you anything approaching a favour
Tell Blair to climb under a rock and stay there. Or better yet, deport him Trump style
Stop telling everyone you're taking the tough decisions
Stop pretending you're going to growth your way out of this mess

/applause

[BWFC_Insane]

There is no money. The next few years are going to be about more cuts and more tax rises because there is zero other choice. That’s it. Whoever is in charge that’s all that can be done - because the position is so bad, so dire that there is literally no choice. The markets are watching and waiting.

Pre election I said the public didn’t know how bad it was. I’m still not sure they’ve grasped it. This is infinitely worse than 2010 - when people fell for the Cameron routine. This is a fiscal crisis in the middle of what is likely to be a global economic downturn after 15 years of economic shocks.


There is no magic tax solution that isn’t going to be deeply unpopular. And no magic solution to avoid the cuts the Tories had baked in that were announced, those they had planned - already extreme, and then likely double or triple that again thanks to Trump and tariffs.

They sadly cannot get away with governing on vibes and promises in the current climate.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

There is a huge amount of money sloshing around. Sure not as much as anyone would like, but its about priorities. They are flirting around the edge of things trying to look good to some groups of people. Stop fecking about squeezing the wrong groups/people. At the moment they're driving small businesses out of business - the opposite of growth. They're making most people poorer, meaning they spend less - the opposite of growth. They are fecking useless.

They could be honest about how we can realistically improve growth, but what that also means for immigration. They wont. There will be no meaningful growth for anyone that really needs it.

[BWFC_Insane]

There is a huge amount of money sloshing around. Sure not as much as anyone would like, but its about priorities. They are flirting around the edge of things trying to look good to some groups of people. Stop fecking about squeezing the wrong groups/people. At the moment they're driving small businesses out of business - the opposite of growth. They're making most people poorer, meaning they spend less - the opposite of growth. They are fecking useless.

They could be honest about how we can realistically improve growth, but what that also means for immigration. They wont. There will be no meaningful growth for anyone that really needs it.

Borrowing is at 100% GDP. We’ve seen the tolerance in the markets for more borrowing too…none. The money that’s sloshing around is being spent on stuff - stuff that is also subject in many cases to above inflation rises. It’s bleak and going to get worse. Much worse.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

There is a huge amount of money sloshing around. Sure not as much as anyone would like, but its about priorities. They are flirting around the edge of things trying to look good to some groups of people. Stop fecking about squeezing the wrong groups/people. At the moment they're driving small businesses out of business - the opposite of growth. They're making most people poorer, meaning they spend less - the opposite of growth. They are fecking useless.

They could be honest about how we can realistically improve growth, but what that also means for immigration. They wont. There will be no meaningful growth for anyone that really needs it.

Borrowing is at 100% GDP. We’ve seen the tolerance in the markets for more borrowing too…none. The money that’s sloshing around is being spent on stuff - stuff that is also subject in many cases to above inflation rises. It’s bleak and going to get worse. Much worse.

I question what they're spending it on. They can do a lot better.

[Worthy4England]

It's dull economics and incorrect to say that approaching £1trn represents "no money." As you say AT, there's a shitload you can do with that. I see waste, over 30 years of dealing drectly with all government departments. I see factional infighting, absolutely dumbass and largely incompetent procurement.

[BWFC_Insane]

It's dull economics and incorrect to say that approaching £1trn represents "no money." As you say AT, there's a shitload you can do with that. I see waste, over 30 years of dealing drectly with all government departments. I see factional infighting, absolutely dumbass and largely incompetent procurement.

That’s the reform and Trump argument. That it can all be fixed via cutting waste. Also increasingly labours out of necessity. I think it’s rather like in the US going to turn out to be completely illusionary.

Yes there is waste. Yes there will be tons of anecdotal ‘my department bought a pack of biros for a million quid’ stories. Most of the waste will be non essential roles and duplication of function.

But it’s going to ultimately be chicken feed compared to spending and inflation. Whatever waste you cut will probably be swallowed up in rising borrowing costs alone.

Also most cuts end up being people who then are unemployed and it’s not cost neutral. Usually good people too who add value.

But I predict that they won’t find even the initial £18Bn of cuts they need to in waste in their line by line spending review and if they do it will involve cuts along the lines of winter fuel and PIP that are massively unpopular. There are large swathes of the public sector that even in today’s circumstances it’s very hard to cut. Political and real fallout is hard to avoid.

[Worthy4England]

It might be the Reform/Trump argument, but given I've been making it to Govt Procurement Depts since the mid noughties, I don't give a shit.

But. And this is sorta important, at no point did I say what your straw man is suggesting. That it can all be fixed, just by cutting wasteful spending. That would help some.

And it's fcuk all to do with biros for a million. They waste 100's of millions a year on just the way they procure IT. They have no fcuking clue. Which is great for my business. But having negotiated a lot of multi hundred million pound contracts with them, I'm not taking any other fcukers steer on it.

It won't solve everything. But it would add to the pot.

[Prufrock]

Government procurement really is horrific. Anyone good immediately gets poached by the private sector because the wage differential is insane. A proper false economy.

Small boats is a big one too. That's tough, but equally tough as it may be, you can't claim to be a serious government if you can't control borders. Immigration generally is clearly an issue for Reform voters, but the boats issue goes well beyond your "immigration sceptic" voters, and tbf fair enough. I'm liberal on immigration but you have to be able to control who. Clearing the asylum backlog and getting those numbers down is vital.

Then you've got public services which is tough given the financial situation. But given how hopeless the last government was, there's something to be said for just governing competently. People get understandably frustrated, but one year isn't big in the scheme of things. The worry is the global situation takes away the headroom they'd hoped to create early on to get on and fix things. But that's the job.

[BWFC_Insane]

Government procurement really is horrific. Anyone good immediately gets poached by the private sector because the wage differential is insane. A proper false economy.

Small boats is a big one too. That's tough, but equally tough as it may be, you can't claim to be a serious government if you can't control borders. Immigration generally is clearly an issue for Reform voters, but the boats issue goes well beyond your "immigration sceptic" voters, and tbf fair enough. I'm liberal on immigration but you have to be able to control who. Clearing the asylum backlog and getting those numbers down is vital.

Then you've got public services which is tough given the financial situation. But given how hopeless the last government was, there's something to be said for just governing competently. People get understandably frustrated, but one year isn't big in the scheme of things. The worry is the global situation takes away the headroom they'd hoped to create early on to get on and fix things. But that's the job.

Agree with this. The last bit though they had the smallest headroom in the history of headroom’s that was eaten by some relatively small market fluctuations and they made some cuts including on disability to theoretically restore the same small tiny headroom that will be eaten again by Trumps tariffs and the global economy.

The problem is that they are already making big cuts. And those cuts can’t sustain headroom in current economic conditions. And there are no room for more cuts without slashing stuff that people rely on or that props up stuff that people rely on.

I don’t think they’ve made any big mistakes thus far. I just don’t think they’ve done anywhere near a good enough job of communicating the situation. They did the usual political thing of coming in and blaming the last lot but that didn’t work because everyone blamed the last lot anyway and reform are here but even beyond politics they should have acknowledged that whilst the last lot were incompetent they’d been dealt a dreadful hand that is still being dealt. Pretence that competence would be enough to dig us out of a hole we’ve not seen maybe since WW2 but quite likely worse than even that - I don’t think was the right message.

[Worthy4England]

Government procurement really is horrific. Anyone good immediately gets poached by the private sector because the wage differential is insane. A proper false economy.

Small boats is a big one too. That's tough, but equally tough as it may be, you can't claim to be a serious government if you can't control borders. Immigration generally is clearly an issue for Reform voters, but the boats issue goes well beyond your "immigration sceptic" voters, and tbf fair enough. I'm liberal on immigration but you have to be able to control who. Clearing the asylum backlog and getting those numbers down is vital.

Then you've got public services which is tough given the financial situation. But given how hopeless the last government was, there's something to be said for just governing competently. People get understandably frustrated, but one year isn't big in the scheme of things. The worry is the global situation takes away the headroom they'd hoped to create early on to get on and fix things. But that's the job.

Yeah. I think on immigration the overall net number needs to fall, but then there's a world of pain when it does. It's a question of "would Sir/Madam like pain this way or that?"

I think, like you, most governments they try to get the shit out early and hope for pick-up nearer the next election. But frankly, they've targeted some very vulnerable groups and whilst I generally think governments need a couple of years, they have some lifting to do just to get anywhere near break even.

Their approach to build build build is awful. And after the last lot who were shit, they're just reinforcing the notion that neither party has a fcuking clue.

Quick peek at the map from last night "red wall," coast to coast light blue. They need to do something really significant to alter that trajectory.

[Prufrock]

There's a pretty massive "unknown" in there on Reform too. Broadly they're a bunch of fruit loops (any new party struggles with that tbf) and the whole thing is held together by Farage who could start an argument in a phone booth. If he can keep the show on the road, it could genuinely be existential for one of the big two (probably the Tories, but not inconceivable it could be Labour.)

If they fall apart (which tbf is most likely) you're probably in a similar situation to last time.

Gun to my head I still think Labour will win the next election. If reform are strong, I think greens and lib Dems will go French and hold their nose to vote for Starmer. If they collapse, similar to last time. Badenoch is terrible, but the replacements are worse.

Long time for things to change though.

[Prufrock]

While Worthy mentions build build build (where we don't see eye to eye ) I read something the other day that China has built 4 billion houses, and they have more *empty* houses than they have people!

I think there's a middle ground, lads!

[Worthy4England]

While Worthy mentions build build build (where we don't see eye to eye ) I read something the other day that China has built 4 billion houses, and they have more *empty* houses than they have people!

I think there's a middle ground, lads!

We need the right houses at the right price and in the right places. That's not what happens when the shellack green belt. You get profit heavy, unaffordable houses in the wrong places that are then purchased as assets. I'm not suggesting we don't need any houses. Oh and we need to make developers build their affordable commitment first, rather than allowing them to crawl out of it on every occasion on economic grounds.

[Worthy4England]

There's a pretty massive "unknown" in there on Reform too. Broadly they're a bunch of fruit loops (any new party struggles with that tbf) and the whole thing is held together by Farage who could start an argument in a phone booth. If he can keep the show on the road, it could genuinely be existential for one of the big two (probably the Tories, but not inconceivable it could be Labour.)

If they fall apart (which tbf is most likely) you're probably in a similar situation to last time.

Gun to my head I still think Labour will win the next election. If reform are strong, I think greens and lib Dems will go French and hold their nose to vote for Starmer. If they collapse, similar to last time. Badenoch is terrible, but the replacements are worse.

Long time for things to change though.

For a lot of folks, it's more about who they're not, than who they are.

If Tories don't pick up and their vote goes Reform of stay at home. And Labour voters say that was awful and don't turn out. It's mind the gap. There are lots of what I'd call middleground Tories near me "It's Tories, Sir. Thousands of 'em." They're not heading out to a Tommy Robinson march any time soon. Most days they vote Tory, really pissed, they'd stay in bed. I reckon 80% of them will vote Reform next GE, using my "man in a pub talking to his mates," swingometer.

[Prufrock]

Yeah, they're not UKIP or the Brexit Party. I still think there's a ceiling, but it's not the 25% single issue voters it used to be. Do think Farage is vital though, and he doesn't play nicely. Still think it most likely ends in tears, but equally wouldn't rule out completely PM Nige in 4 years. Christ.

[Worthy4England]

I was pretty happy Mr Money, Aaron Banks didn't get in. That'd be like minor Elon...

[BWFC_Insane]

All this though highlights the issue for Labour. Do they tack right to head off the drip feed of voters to them in the north and midlands and risk their urban strongholds falling green and Lib Dem? I mean they’d have to go very strong on immigration - like really strong and that has consequences in reality and politically. And the gain is maybe a slowing of an exodus that may or may not be enough.

Or do they try and shore up the progressive vote which we know in itself and with the electoral geography probably isn’t enough to win through more traditional post 1980 centre left policy and posturing?


I genuinely don’t think they can continue to try and do both - and yet neither convince me they are electoral winning strategies. Especially considering the massive constraints under which they govern.

[BWFC_Insane]

I suppose one has to only look to Canada and Australia where the governing equivalents of the UK Labour Party were dead and buried 6 months out from the election yet both won stunning victories. Life changes fast these days.

[Worthy4England]

Different electorates. Canada is broadly 50/50 on elections since 1980. Aus is weighted towards Labour wins. Over the same time we're pretty much opposite, weighted towards Tories. If your voter base is more inclined to vote "Labour/Liberal" and orange nepo-baby turns up in the US, that's likely to help get your vote out.

They could introduce PR....