The Politics Thread

[Prufrock]

It's a politically stale argument as well. This argument has been going on about two years, now. And to the general public I'd guess that the general message hasn't changed. As Mandleson said last week, if you're going to criticise the government's policy, fine. But beating that drum for two years without offering a viable alternative kinda becomes boring after a while.

But, what if you don't have an alternative, or,, you do, but it isn't that much different, and is only different in ways that are difficult to articulate? Play on an unpopular government, highlight the poshness of the guys you're against and hope to win it by being less unpopular. Mid-term polls are always dodgy, but the current Labour approach certainly isn't a complete disaster so far.

I'd like Labour to come out, explain properly what their plan is so we can decide properly. I think they're more bothered with winning.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

I feel this has to be a willed non-comprehension. A £17.5 million bonus angering people reeling from the results of the crisis that finance capital has inflicted worldwide is, i feel, understandable... You really don't understand? This has to be a failure of imagination of record breaking order...

Barclays has not received taxpayer assistance and that bonus pushes Ricci's next tax bill to over £9million, which goes back into the pot that sorts out the problems bailing out other institutions has caused (without being a feedback loop originating in public money).

I understand that people are bewildered by very high pay, wherever it occurs, be it in sport, finance, or the production of mp3 players, but I don't understand why this particular episode has wound people up so much.

As for 'finance capital' as an abstract concept 'inflicting crisis'... if this is so, then it must be true that either people enjoy a false level of prosperity between crises, or that the activity of finance makes a contribution in the good periods. It might even be that this contribution makes the crisis periods worth it in the long run.

[BWFC_Insane]

You can, which is exactly what the Tories are trying and failing to do now, with a difficult situation that they've only managed to make worse thus far.

And to quote yourself: Bollocks. Utter bollocks.

Since the Tories came in with their austerity plan they've;

Dragged us back into recession
Stagnated any growth meaning the tax bill has not increased as they expected, meaning they've borrowed as Bish says, billions more than they intended to
Lost the AAA credit rating, the very measure which they at one point stated our economy should be judged by
Have slashed public services
All of this, whilst according to the OBR barely if at all touching the deficit

Now for me none of that means we're better off than we were when they came into government. In fact for me it means we're worse.

However, I don't think we're ever going to agree because ultimately your core ideology is probably the polar opposite to mine. So probably best to agree to differ.

[mrkint]

It's a politically stale argument as well. This argument has been going on about two years, now. And to the general public I'd guess that the general message hasn't changed. As Mandleson said last week, if you're going to criticise the government's policy, fine. But beating that drum for two years without offering a viable alternative kinda becomes boring after a while.

But, what if you don't have an alternative, or,, you do, but it isn't that much different, and is only different in ways that are difficult to articulate? Play on an unpopular government, highlight the poshness of the guys you're against and hope to win it by being less unpopular. Mid-term polls are always dodgy, but the current Labour approach certainly isn't a complete disaster so far.

I'd like Labour to come out, explain properly what their plan is so we can decide properly. I think they're more bothered with winning.

But all the while this game of dispatch box tennis is getting very boring, especially after a 24-month rally as it feels like. Labour are ahead in the polls last time I checked, so you could argue their methods are working (or maybe the government is defending terribly) but this is just going to erode interest in the main two parties, which seems detrimental in the long run (democracy in fostering short-termism shocker) for them and opens the door for the likes of UKIP. I'm assuming the Lib Dems will get destroyed in the polls.

imo, anyway

[Bruce Rioja]

However, I don't think we're ever going to agree because ultimately your core ideology is probably the polar opposite to mine. So probably best to agree to differ.

Not at all. I like to food shop at M&S too.

[Il Pirate]

That's not actually true - I understand their date was confirmed and in the diary long before the Budget was.

That makes everything ok then.....................

[thebish]

It's true that Labour's message is impossible to communicate.

On Wednesday the Eds were mocking the Chancellor for doing too much borrowing whilst offering more borrowing as the solution.

hmmm... no - I don't think so. They were mocking the chancellor for borrowing 2.5billion more than he promised he would.

they are NOT mocking "more borrowing" per se. they are mocking "more borrowing" to achieve no growth - and (whether or not they are right) promoting borrowing to kick-start/stimulate growth.

of course - you know this.

but - as i said (and you have repeated) - it is a hard argument to put because it sounds like the "wrong kind of snow" announcements - it's the wrong kind of borrowing.

[thebish]

You can, which is exactly what the Tories are trying and failing to do now, with a difficult situation that they've only managed to make worse thus far.

And to quote yourself: Bollocks. Utter bollocks.

if that is bollox - then in what way? in what way is the tory strategy working?

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

You can, which is exactly what the Tories are trying and failing to do now, with a difficult situation that they've only managed to make worse thus far.

And to quote yourself: Bollocks. Utter bollocks.

if that is bollox - then in what way? in what way is the tory strategy working?

JSA claimants down, bond rates very low, economy not contracting, deficit on its way down.

Of course we would like to have a bit more growth instead of flatlining, but given the state of our main trading partners' economies, I think it's very difficult to argue that this Government's policies have been nothing short of a disaster.

[thebish]

JSA claimants down, bond rates very low, economy not contracting, deficit on its way down.

Of course we would have a bit more growth instead of flatlining, but given the state of our main trading partners' economies, I think it's very difficult to argue that this Government's policies have been nothing short of a disaster.

I think it would be possible to list stats in different combinations to allege that it is working or not working in roughly equal measure. what I was trying to suggest was that simply saying "that's bollox" - as BWFCi and Bruce have done, doesn't really add anything to the discussion unless you can say why you think it is bollos. BWFCi has had a go at offering his list of (slightly exaggerated woes) - but Bruce hasn't offered any analysis or opinion at all beyond the "bollox" and a personal snipe at BWFCi for doing some shopping in M&S. That was the actual point of my post...

as for the JSA coming down - it is! and that's good news on the surface. Before I were to break open another bottle of Dom Perignon I'd want to know a little bit more about where these job-seekers have gone.

uni
low-paid jobs
part-time jobs
full-time well-paid jobs
somewhere else..

if they have gone into low-paid part-time jobs - then they are most probably simply claiming other kinds of benefit - most benefits go to people in work don't they? (or have i got that wrong?) I don't know how they will fare when the benefit changes take effect and there is a single Universal Credit - whether it will actually be worth it for them to keep those jobs... (I genuinely don;t know this - and neither do the local job centre staff with whom we are working to set up young-peoples Job Clubs across Torbay... they are going to offer us training in the intricacies of the the Universal Credit - but they say they don't understand it themselves yet and the picture seems to change week by week as the govt is still tinkering with it in response to 1001 anomolies that were not properly thought through in the first place...)

[Lost Leopard Spot]

You see what really fecking annoys me about politicians, and it's both Labour and the Tories, are the lies they spout at Budget time. I notice all the interesting arguments above about which party is/isn't telling porkies about the economy - well the sad truth is that they tell porkies all the time and expect us not to notice.
Take this deficit business for example, or the figures they state will be the borrowing amounts in the future. They go DOWN. All the time. They say total bollox like "This government is reducing the amount we borrow and in 2022 we will not be borrowing anything at all". It's total shite.
Here for example are this year's figures (from OBR - the Office of Budget Responsibility) as stated by the Chancellor for borrowing:
2012-2013 £121bn
2013-2014 £121bn
2014-2015 £110bn
2015-2016 £98bn
2016-2017 £68bn
2017-2018 £42bn

notice the relentless downward trend of this year after year, and of course this isn't bollocks at all, is it. Oh no siree it's economic science at its pristine uncluttered honest best, isn't it?

Well here are the same figures, by the same bloke (from the same source) except they are from the 2010 budget, with the figures for borrowing as follows:

2011-2012 £116bn
2012-2013 £89bn
2013-2014 £60bn
2014-2015 £37bn
2015-2016 £20bn

Notice again the relentless downward trend. Only it isn't is it - because in 2010, this year (2012-2013) was forecast to be £89bn worth of borrowing, but as you can see from this year's actual figures the borrowing is £121bn - WHICH IS MORE, much more, THIRTY TWO BILLION POUNDS MORE. In 2010 he was predicting that in 2016 we wpould be borrowing only £20bn, but this year he is predicting that in 2016 we will be borrowing £98bn.
That is £78,000,000,000,000 more of borrowing than he said two years ago, and the tw*t is making out like he's delivering good news: makes me want to spit feathers.
When we actually get to 2016 the actual borrowing taking place will in all probability be higher than the £121bn worth that we borrowed this year, and still the lying feckers will be producing forecasts showing a relentless downward trend in the future. Because that's what politicians do best - they hoodwink, lie, and con you - and you all take sides in this, pretending some of them don't feckin lie. THEY ALL FECKIN LIE.

[Armchair Wanderer]

I've always thought the Bank of England has been more political than it should be. The OBR is another independent body that seems quite political.

[BWFC_Insane]

You see what really fecking annoys me about politicians, and it's both Labour and the Tories, are the lies they spout at Budget time. I notice all the interesting arguments above about which party is/isn't telling porkies about the economy - well the sad truth is that they tell porkies all the time and expect us not to notice.
Take this deficit business for example, or the figures they state will be the borrowing amounts in the future. They go DOWN. All the time. They say total bollox like "This government is reducing the amount we borrow and in 2022 we will not be borrowing anything at all". It's total shite.
Here for example are this year's figures (from OBR - the Office of Budget Responsibility) as stated by the Chancellor for borrowing:
2012-2013 £121bn
2013-2014 £121bn
2014-2015 £110bn
2015-2016 £98bn
2016-2017 £68bn
2017-2018 £42bn

notice the relentless downward trend of this year after year, and of course this isn't bollocks at all, is it. Oh no siree it's economic science at its pristine uncluttered honest best, isn't it?

Well here are the same figures, by the same bloke (from the same source) except they are from the 2010 budget, with the figures for borrowing as follows:

2011-2012 £116bn
2012-2013 £89bn
2013-2014 £60bn
2014-2015 £37bn
2015-2016 £20bn

Notice again the relentless downward trend. Only it isn't is it - because in 2010, this year (2012-2013) was forecast to be £89bn worth of borrowing, but as you can see from this year's actual figures the borrowing is £121bn - WHICH IS MORE, much more, THIRTY TWO BILLION POUNDS MORE. In 2010 he was predicting that in 2016 we wpould be borrowing only £20bn, but this year he is predicting that in 2016 we will be borrowing £98bn.
That is £78,000,000,000,000 more of borrowing than he said two years ago, and the tw*t is making out like he's delivering good news: makes me want to spit feathers.
When we actually get to 2016 the actual borrowing taking place will in all probability be higher than the £121bn worth that we borrowed this year, and still the lying feckers will be producing forecasts showing a relentless downward trend in the future. Because that's what politicians do best - they hoodwink, lie, and con you - and you all take sides in this, pretending some of them don't feckin lie. THEY ALL FECKIN LIE.

The trouble is that the nature of government and politics, dictates to them they must "lie".

Were they honest, they'd not last and let whichever opposition lied the most, into power.

It's a flawed self perpetuating system.

I'm not really sure there is an alternative way though. At the end of the day it's like most things in life, a great big pointless charade.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

You see what really fecking annoys me about politicians, and it's both Labour and the Tories, are the lies they spout at Budget time. I notice all the interesting arguments above about which party is/isn't telling porkies about the economy - well the sad truth is that they tell porkies all the time and expect us not to notice.
Take this deficit business for example, or the figures they state will be the borrowing amounts in the future. They go DOWN. All the time. They say total bollox like "This government is reducing the amount we borrow and in 2022 we will not be borrowing anything at all". It's total shite.
Here for example are this year's figures (from OBR - the Office of Budget Responsibility) as stated by the Chancellor for borrowing:
2012-2013 £121bn
2013-2014 £121bn
2014-2015 £110bn
2015-2016 £98bn
2016-2017 £68bn
2017-2018 £42bn

notice the relentless downward trend of this year after year, and of course this isn't bollocks at all, is it. Oh no siree it's economic science at its pristine uncluttered honest best, isn't it?

Well here are the same figures, by the same bloke (from the same source) except they are from the 2010 budget, with the figures for borrowing as follows:

2011-2012 £116bn
2012-2013 £89bn
2013-2014 £60bn
2014-2015 £37bn
2015-2016 £20bn

Notice again the relentless downward trend. Only it isn't is it - because in 2010, this year (2012-2013) was forecast to be £89bn worth of borrowing, but as you can see from this year's actual figures the borrowing is £121bn - WHICH IS MORE, much more, THIRTY TWO BILLION POUNDS MORE. In 2010 he was predicting that in 2016 we wpould be borrowing only £20bn, but this year he is predicting that in 2016 we will be borrowing £98bn.
That is £78,000,000,000,000 more of borrowing than he said two years ago, and the tw*t is making out like he's delivering good news: makes me want to spit feathers.
When we actually get to 2016 the actual borrowing taking place will in all probability be higher than the £121bn worth that we borrowed this year, and still the lying feckers will be producing forecasts showing a relentless downward trend in the future. Because that's what politicians do best - they hoodwink, lie, and con you - and you all take sides in this, pretending some of them don't feckin lie. THEY ALL FECKIN LIE.

The trouble is that the nature of government and politics, dictates to them they must "lie".

Were they honest, they'd not last and let whichever opposition lied the most, into power.

It's a flawed self perpetuating system.

I'm not really sure there is an alternative way though. At the end of the day it's like most things in life, a great big pointless charade.

Maybe the way forward then, is to truly have an independent Office of Budget Responsibility. With a Truth Officer appointed to vet all statements that the Chancellor makes pre-budget, and to go even further and ban the buggers from 'projecting' anything beyond the next two years, and all projected figures conforming to some kind of distortion coefficient whereby each Chancellor/government/party's figures are porky-scrutinised and adjusted accordingly.

[BWFC_Insane]

You see what really fecking annoys me about politicians, and it's both Labour and the Tories, are the lies they spout at Budget time. I notice all the interesting arguments above about which party is/isn't telling porkies about the economy - well the sad truth is that they tell porkies all the time and expect us not to notice.
Take this deficit business for example, or the figures they state will be the borrowing amounts in the future. They go DOWN. All the time. They say total bollox like "This government is reducing the amount we borrow and in 2022 we will not be borrowing anything at all". It's total shite.
Here for example are this year's figures (from OBR - the Office of Budget Responsibility) as stated by the Chancellor for borrowing:
2012-2013 £121bn
2013-2014 £121bn
2014-2015 £110bn
2015-2016 £98bn
2016-2017 £68bn
2017-2018 £42bn

notice the relentless downward trend of this year after year, and of course this isn't bollocks at all, is it. Oh no siree it's economic science at its pristine uncluttered honest best, isn't it?

Well here are the same figures, by the same bloke (from the same source) except they are from the 2010 budget, with the figures for borrowing as follows:

2011-2012 £116bn
2012-2013 £89bn
2013-2014 £60bn
2014-2015 £37bn
2015-2016 £20bn

Notice again the relentless downward trend. Only it isn't is it - because in 2010, this year (2012-2013) was forecast to be £89bn worth of borrowing, but as you can see from this year's actual figures the borrowing is £121bn - WHICH IS MORE, much more, THIRTY TWO BILLION POUNDS MORE. In 2010 he was predicting that in 2016 we wpould be borrowing only £20bn, but this year he is predicting that in 2016 we will be borrowing £98bn.
That is £78,000,000,000,000 more of borrowing than he said two years ago, and the tw*t is making out like he's delivering good news: makes me want to spit feathers.
When we actually get to 2016 the actual borrowing taking place will in all probability be higher than the £121bn worth that we borrowed this year, and still the lying feckers will be producing forecasts showing a relentless downward trend in the future. Because that's what politicians do best - they hoodwink, lie, and con you - and you all take sides in this, pretending some of them don't feckin lie. THEY ALL FECKIN LIE.

The trouble is that the nature of government and politics, dictates to them they must "lie".

Were they honest, they'd not last and let whichever opposition lied the most, into power.

It's a flawed self perpetuating system.

I'm not really sure there is an alternative way though. At the end of the day it's like most things in life, a great big pointless charade.

Maybe the way forward then, is to truly have an independent Office of Budget Responsibility. With a Truth Officer appointed to vet all statements that the Chancellor makes pre-budget, and to go even further and ban the buggers from 'projecting' anything beyond the next two years, and all projected figures conforming to some kind of distortion coefficient whereby each Chancellor/government/party's figures are porky-scrutinised and adjusted accordingly.

The trouble is that even then it's all down to interpretation and "spin". And what one man might let fly another man or woman may not.

So I'm not sure it's even as easy as that.

[thebish]

Maybe the way forward then, is to truly have an independent Office of Budget Responsibility. With a Truth Officer appointed to vet all statements that the Chancellor makes pre-budget, and to go even further and ban the buggers from 'projecting' anything beyond the next two years, and all projected figures conforming to some kind of distortion coefficient whereby each Chancellor/government/party's figures are porky-scrutinised and adjusted accordingly.

to be fair to the OBR and to the tories - the OBR is a step forward - setting it up is something the tories got right. and only a couple of weeks ago the OBR slapped the PM down very publically for misrepresenting what they had said.

the figures you quote are what they now believe - they are not lies. they do still predict a year-on-year fall - that's what they are asked to do.

the person who needs to provide answers is the chancellor - who promised it would be different. the OBR is just doing what it is asked to do - ie - based on what we NOW know - after another year of Osborne's plan has passed - what is your best guess about the future.

I think you are pointing your gun-of-truth in the wrong direction...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Maybe the way forward then, is to truly have an independent Office of Budget Responsibility. With a Truth Officer appointed to vet all statements that the Chancellor makes pre-budget, and to go even further and ban the buggers from 'projecting' anything beyond the next two years, and all projected figures conforming to some kind of distortion coefficient whereby each Chancellor/government/party's figures are porky-scrutinised and adjusted accordingly.

to be fair to the OBR and to the tories - the OBR is a step forward - setting it up is something the tories got right. and only a couple of weeks ago the OBR slapped the PM down very publically for misrepresenting what they had said.

the figures you quote are what they now believe - they are not lies. they do still predict a year-on-year fall - that's what they are asked to do.

the person who needs to provide answers is the chancellor - who promised it would be different. the OBR is just doing what it is asked to do - ie - based on what we NOW know - after another year of Osborne's plan has passed - what is your best guess about the future.

I think you are pointing your gun-of-truth in the wrong direction...

My gun of truth was aimed squarely at the politician's heads. It is the Chancellor who contrives the borrowing figures. The figures are presented as though they will be adhered to. The OBR publishes them without pointing out that they are a) wild speculation, and b) have never been adhered to, and even c) projected downward trends (if downwards is good) and upwards trends (if upwards is good) more often than not are opposite in reality. My Truth Officer was just an instrument of potential adjustment utilised in order to attempt to put a brake on politician's lies.

[thebish]

My gun of truth was aimed squarely at the politician's heads. It is the Chancellor who contrives the borrowing figures. The figures are presented as though they will be adhered to. The OBR publishes them without pointing out that they are a) wild speculation, and b) have never been adhered to, and even c) projected downward trends (if downwards is good) and upwards trends (if upwards is good) more often than not are opposite in reality. My Truth Officer was just an instrument of potential adjustment utilised in order to attempt to put a brake on politician's lies.

surely those figures were simply the OBR's figures - not ones he has made up... or have I missed something? the point of thr OBR is that the chancellor doesn't make economic forecasts anymore.

he does make promises about what he will achieve in the lifetime of the parliament - but he has already got to the point where he won't be delivering many of those!!

surely it has been said lots that the forecasts are being revised in a bad direction? because of the OBR - which he must regret setting up - Osborne has had to come to the dispatch box several times and explain that the forecasts have got worse...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

My gun of truth was aimed squarely at the politician's heads. It is the Chancellor who contrives the borrowing figures. The figures are presented as though they will be adhered to. The OBR publishes them without pointing out that they are a) wild speculation, and b) have never been adhered to, and even c) projected downward trends (if downwards is good) and upwards trends (if upwards is good) more often than not are opposite in reality. My Truth Officer was just an instrument of potential adjustment utilised in order to attempt to put a brake on politician's lies.

surely those figures were simply the OBR's figures - not ones he has made up... or have I missed something? the point of thr OBR is that the chancellor doesn't make economic forecasts anymore.

he does make promises about what he will achieve in the lifetime of the parliament - but he has already got to the point where he won't be delivering many of those!!

surely it has been said lots that the forecasts are being revised in a bad direction? because of the OBR - which he must regret setting up - Osborne has had to come to the dispatch box several times and explain that the forecasts have got worse...

It is my understanding that those are the Chancellor's figures insofar as they are projected and calculated by the OBR by being based on the budget input conjured up by the Chancellor. There are also specified statistical pathways agreed by the cabinet (things like: you may project into the future an increase in population, but only if criteria x is satisfied and the same increase is applied to calculation y, or whatever) which are heavily politically biased that the OBR agrees to follow.
So in other words there are a set of agreed functions (as in mathematical functions) that the OBR can use, the Chancellor then gives them the starting input, the OBR turns the handle and out pops the output which the OBR publishes as their own work.

[Hoboh]

You can, which is exactly what the Tories are trying and failing to do now, with a difficult situation that they've only managed to make worse thus far.

And to quote yourself: Bollocks. Utter bollocks.

if that is bollox - then in what way? in what way is the tory strategy working?

JSA claimants down, bond rates very low, economy not contracting, deficit on its way down.

Of course we would like to have a bit more growth instead of flatlining, but given the state of our main trading partners' economies, I think it's very difficult to argue that this Government's policies have been nothing short of a disaster.

Totally agree they have, not quite as bad yet as the last lot (the total bill for their warmongering is not in yet) were! Still theres time yet.