Kiev

[bobo the clown]

Russia will, in a false democratic move, effectively annex Crimea this coming week. They will arrange that senior politicians from the eastern Ukraine to invite them in 'for reasons of protection'. That will trim about 30% of the Ukraine off and under Russian control.

The west needs Russian oil & gas. We will make huge noises but ultimately do f'call.

If what's left of the Ukraine is daft enough to goad the Russians there will be NO appetite for a proper fight.


I bet you a pizza ... & I can't say fairer than that (due to my speech impediment).

[William the White]

Russia will, in a false democratic move, effectively annex Crimea this coming week. They will arrange that senior politicians from the eastern Ukraine to invite them in 'for reasons of protection'. That will trim about 30% of the Ukraine off and under Russian control.

The west needs Russian oil & gas. We will make huge noises but ultimately do f'call.

If what's left of the Ukraine is daft enough to goad the Russians there will be NO appetite for a proper fight.


I bet you a pizza ... & I can't say fairer than that (due to my speech impediment).

I'll match your pizza and raise you a glass of red. I don't think we are likely to do anything effective if Russia does play out your scenario - possibly there is actually nothing effective that CAN be done if Putin is determined to do that, at least short of planetary annihilation. But there will be some diplomatic and economic response. And a real freezing and - possibly - a return to cold war sabre rattling.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

As much as the oil is needed by many European countries, full economic sanctions would hurt Russia even more in the long term. It's a game of bluff.

The other is that Ukraine were guaranteed sovereignty their land for giving up nuclear weapons. A lot of implications if those guarantors are found wanting.

[Prufrock]

Yeah Russia would be f*cked if the West stopped buying their gas. Not saying we will, but in a cynical moment a few pages back I pointed out that America is sitting on a shiiiiit load of gas they're looking to start exporting.

[bobo the clown]

As much as the oil is needed by many European countries, full economic sanctions would hurt Russia even more in the long term. It's a game of bluff.

The other is that Ukraine were guaranteed sovereignty their land for giving up nuclear weapons. A lot of implications if those guarantors are found wanting.

But energy demand is an immediate matter, sanctions and not receiving income is a tad more medium/long term.

[Hoboh]

Kerry pushed Lavrov to stop Russia taking steps escalating the crisis – creating "facts on the ground" – and instead open negotiations on alternative proposals for ending the standoff. One proposal was for Russian troops in the Crimea to withdraw to their barracks and be replaced by troops from the pan-European Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Just about sums up the stupidity of the US

Dear Mr plastic Kerry

I really like your proposal to introduce US/UE troops into the Ukraine to ensure the safety of Russian troops in their barracks; unfortunately, it is one I shall not be taking you up on for obvious reasons.

Yours sincerely

Vlad

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

As much as the oil is needed by many European countries, full economic sanctions would hurt Russia even more in the long term. It's a game of bluff.

The other is that Ukraine were guaranteed sovereignty their land for giving up nuclear weapons. A lot of implications if those guarantors are found wanting.

But energy demand is an immediate matter, sanctions and not receiving income is a tad more medium/long term.

Difficult to solve, but not impossible if there is a will.

[Hoboh]

As much as the oil is needed by many European countries, full economic sanctions would hurt Russia even more in the long term. It's a game of bluff.

The other is that Ukraine were guaranteed sovereignty their land for giving up nuclear weapons. A lot of implications if those guarantors are found wanting.

But energy demand is an immediate matter, sanctions and not receiving income is a tad more medium/long term.

Difficult to solve, but not impossible if there is a will.

The Russians have in the past endured hardship over the years that would make most other countries hard times seem like 'a walk in the park', seriously what makes you think they would give a sh*t over Western sanctions. You seem to think they have the Wests or more precisly the US outlook that cash is all.
If I was a German given what my country had inflicted on the Russians, I'd be very worried about the wasp chewer leading any charge over sanctions.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

As much as the oil is needed by many European countries, full economic sanctions would hurt Russia even more in the long term. It's a game of bluff.

The other is that Ukraine were guaranteed sovereignty their land for giving up nuclear weapons. A lot of implications if those guarantors are found wanting.

But energy demand is an immediate matter, sanctions and not receiving income is a tad more medium/long term.

Difficult to solve, but not impossible if there is a will.

The Russians have in the past endured hardship over the years that would make most other countries hard times seem like 'a walk in the park', seriously what makes you think they would give a sh*t over Western sanctions. You seem to think they have the Wests or more precisly the US outlook that cash is all.
If I was a German given what my country had inflicted on the Russians, I'd be very worried about the wasp chewer leading any charge over sanctions.

It would be more effective than you think. Many Russians have been enjoying a much higher standard of living than previously. It hurts far more to have it taken away than to have not known it. Additionally, many of the elite will suddenly lose a lot of wealth. They might still be pretty rich, but they'll be most pissed at losing as much as they likely would. Putin isn't stupid and he knows if he isn't careful he could easily push the wrong button and lose a lot of his support.

[Hoboh]

As much as the oil is needed by many European countries, full economic sanctions would hurt Russia even more in the long term. It's a game of bluff.

The other is that Ukraine were guaranteed sovereignty their land for giving up nuclear weapons. A lot of implications if those guarantors are found wanting.

But energy demand is an immediate matter, sanctions and not receiving income is a tad more medium/long term.

Difficult to solve, but not impossible if there is a will.

The Russians have in the past endured hardship over the years that would make most other countries hard times seem like 'a walk in the park', seriously what makes you think they would give a sh*t over Western sanctions. You seem to think they have the Wests or more precisly the US outlook that cash is all.
If I was a German given what my country had inflicted on the Russians, I'd be very worried about the wasp chewer leading any charge over sanctions.

It would be more effective than you think. Many Russians have been enjoying a much higher standard of living than previously. It hurts far more to have it taken away than to have not known it. Additionally, many of the elite will suddenly lose a lot of wealth. They might still be pretty rich, but they'll be most pissed at losing as much as they likely would. Putin isn't stupid and he knows if he isn't careful he could easily push the wrong button and lose a lot of his support.

You are still looking at this through the eyes of a Westener, the rich the fairly rich and the comfortable are not the Russian mind set, the Army and its people are the force.
Putin has to keep these on board not the elite.
Remember the elite who fall foul usually find nice hotels in Siberia or get poked with a brolly or maybe unwittingly handle hazzadous materials, even in this modern age!

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

You are still looking at this through the eyes of a Westener, the rich the fairly rich and the comfortable are not the Russian mind set, the Army and its people are the force.
Putin has to keep these on board not the elite.
Remember the elite who fall foul usually find nice hotels in Siberia or get poked with a brolly or maybe unwittingly handle hazzadous materials, even in this modern age!

Proper sanctions would hurt at all levels. Russia has changed immensely in the last 20 years and capitalism is very alive and well there.

[Hoboh]

You are still looking at this through the eyes of a Westener, the rich the fairly rich and the comfortable are not the Russian mind set, the Army and its people are the force.
Putin has to keep these on board not the elite.
Remember the elite who fall foul usually find nice hotels in Siberia or get poked with a brolly or maybe unwittingly handle hazzadous materials, even in this modern age!

Proper sanctions would hurt at all levels. Russia has changed immensely in the last 20 years and capitalism is very alive and well there.

I think we will agree to disagree at this point 20 years is merely a blink

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

You are still looking at this through the eyes of a Westener, the rich the fairly rich and the comfortable are not the Russian mind set, the Army and its people are the force.
Putin has to keep these on board not the elite.
Remember the elite who fall foul usually find nice hotels in Siberia or get poked with a brolly or maybe unwittingly handle hazzadous materials, even in this modern age!

Proper sanctions would hurt at all levels. Russia has changed immensely in the last 20 years and capitalism is very alive and well there.

I think we will agree to disagree at this point 20 years is merely a blink

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Ok
Way back in 1994, after the Soviet Union had broken up, a democratically elected President of Crimea put forward a plan for a referendum to secede from Ukraine and join the (then newly formed) Russian Union. Seven months after the announcement of the referendum (which had five options all the way from staying in Ukraine through total Independence through to amalgamation to Rudsia) and two weeks before the ballot, Ukraine in the form of its 'President' declared the position of President of the Ukraine abolished and cancelled the referendum.
Also, the democratically elected parliament of the Crimea, after the democratically elected President of Ukraine had been disposed of by the mob nominated rump parliament of Ukraine, appointed the present prime minister of Crimea. Ukraine then did two things - it outlawed Rusdian as a second languague and put out arrest warrants for the new pm of Crimea. Ukraine has since rescinded the language crap but still has arrest warrants out.
Given all that ^ is it any wonder that Russians say f*ck us.
And that's all before Crimea was Russian prior to 1950.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Another feckin thing is this insistence by Hague&Kerry that Russia is abusing international protocols.
So explain to me how a province (Kosovo) which had never in its history been an independent nation (unlike Crimea) and without even the hint of a referendum, but with NATO planes bombing the shit out of the legal country's troops who owned it (Serbia) manages to be legal?
You reap what you sow. Russia are correct, Hague&Kerry are a feckin joke.

[Gravedigger]

This time next year Ukraine will be a member of NATO. Also there could be the biggest tank battle in history on the plains. The further west the Russians will have to take the battle the greater the need for resupply. The hard lessons the Germans learned will not be remembered and lots of people will die through a winter in the open. Vlad has all the cards at pres but Turchynov has the resupply advantage. It's going to get very messy and we'll be able to help with a platoon from the Home Guard.

[Montreal Wanderer]

Another feckin thing is this insistence by Hague&Kerry that Russia is abusing international protocols.
So explain to me how a province (Kosovo) which had never in its history been an independent nation (unlike Crimea) and without even the hint of a referendum, but with NATO planes bombing the shit out of the legal country's troops who owned it (Serbia) manages to be legal?
You reap what you sow. Russia are correct, Hague&Kerry are a feckin joke.

When exactly was the Crimea an independent nation as opposed to an autonomous region within another independent nation? It was briefly independent in the 15th century, but the population were then Crimean Tartars. Josef Stalin changed all that. If autonomous regions count then Kosovo was an autonomous region within the Kingdom of Yugoslavia following WW2.

[Hoboh]

An attempt by the German Green Party to ban Mr Schroeder from speaking in public about Ukraine was narrowly defeated in the European parliament on Thursday.

WTF?

Do the European Parliament really have the power to do this?

If they do then I hope Putin Nukes feckin' Brussels!

[Hoboh]

The annexation of Crimea is, it seems, inevitable. Putin’s men marched their propagandists so far up the hill, they can scarcely march them down again. What’s more, the referendum will be monitored by Russian observers, who know a thing or two about achieving the correct result. Plans are already in place to swap Crimea’s Ukrainian currency for the rouble, and the Russian Duma has scheduled a debate on the incorporation of Crimea for March 21.

So what can the West do? Not much. Insisting that Putin talk to Ukrainian leaders he regards as putschists is pointless. He won’t. Sanctions will not stop Putin either. It is also too late now to give him the assurances he has sought about Russia’s own security. He is convinced the West is out to get him, and has dug in for the long haul.

In Munich in 2007, Putin made a no-holds-barred speech which was essentially a cry of frustration at being ignored. We ignored it. And now he doesn’t give a damn what we think.

Sums it up perfectly

[CrazyHorse]

An attempt by the German Green Party to ban Mr Schroeder from speaking in public about Ukraine was narrowly defeated in the European parliament on Thursday.

WTF?

Do the European Parliament really have the power to do this?

If they do then I hope Putin Nukes feckin' Brussels!

Here's the thing mate. If you tried to express your genuine opinions in a sensible manner instead of in this ridiculous Alf Garnett styled Hoboh persona you've created folk'd be more inclined to take you seriously.

Or do you really hope Putin starts the chain of events that will kill everyone on earth over a gagging order? Cos that's one hell of an over reaction don't you think?