Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[boltonboris]

He's also 'in' with the senior players in the squad after just a few stuttering months on loan, so he's obviously highly thought of by his colleagues, which goes a long way

[BWFC_Insane]

I think we can take a rounded view but as a striker what will matter is end product. Like it or not. You can’t carry someone who occasionally makes a good run if they aren’t scoring goals or at the very least an integral part of creating them.

To this point in his career Nlundulu hasn’t been.

That's not true though, is it?

Dan started 26 games last season and created or scored 7 goals (5 goals and 2 assists). So that's a goal or an assist every 3.7 starts. Not inspiring, but Charles' record is every 3.3 starts when you take out pens. So it's not like Dan is miles off the level even just on basic "Is he any good, lads?" numbers. I think he has a huge amount of stuff he needs to improve, but the exciting part is he looks capable of doing so.

The other side is that he did more defensive and pressing work at Cheltenham than Charles did for us, despite Charles being famous for his work rate. He's also a better technical player in terms of touch, dribbling and passing.

He's learning his trade and is still contributing well. I fail to see the issue. As he exists right this second he's already a decent League One player.

We can let him take the penalties if it'll make everyone feel better about how he's doing.

So what we've got is a young, hard working, technical, physical and pacy forward who manages to put the ball in the net sometimes but not often enough yet. I'm fine with that for the price we paid.

His conversion rate, accuracy and the likes are all well below our other strikers and indeed the league averages.


End of the day he needs to score goals. Or we need to add goalscorers elsewhere because you can’t rely on just one striker to score goals. And we don’t have nearly enough goals output in this squad and there is enough data and history to say that’s unlikely to magically change.

For the outlay on Nlundulu he needs to solve some of that.

[boltonboris]

I've not seen enough of Nludlulu really to know if he'll be a hit or not - Probably none of us have, but from what I have seen, he does offer us something from outside. We can probably transition to a 4-3-3 and he'll be able to come in from the left and finish like Dapo did.

Just a thought that he may offer us some flexibility that the other forwards don't

[Worthy4England]

It’s a lot of money for us in totality. For a 24 year old with little real football, and what he has played shows he’s miles off as it stands.

But let’s judge on how good he is next season. I have doubts but Evatt will live or die by that judgement.

Sure, it's certainly a risk. Evatt has picked up a player he believes has the talent and physical attributes to play Premier League football. He's given him a 3 year deal to give him time to develop and still have him retain value.

Dan's game is about more than goals, but he will have to put up goal contribution numbers next season to justify his spot. We let Kacha go because he didn't score and assist enough, despite Evatt loving everything else he offered.

I'm not really worried about Dan's attacking work. I'm worried about his technical (in terms of system) understanding and his hamstrings. His touch is good, he can shift with the ball at feet and he can strike a football. He needs to play matches and work with his coaches, but it'll come. He won't even get on the pitch if he can't play Evatt's style and stay fit doing it, though.

For me, he's pretty good at receiving the ball, then a bit of confusion sets in...

[GhostoftheBok]

For me, he's pretty good at receiving the ball, then a bit of confusion sets in...

Yup, though in fairness he's learning patterns and it takes time.

He's far from the finished article. He needs to be fitter and he needs to generally improve.

It's 250k, though. You don't get the finished article of a 6'2", rapid, technical goal-scorer for 250k.

People sound like they're expecting a Ferrari when we've paid for a kit car.

[BWFC_Insane]

For me, he's pretty good at receiving the ball, then a bit of confusion sets in...

Yup, though in fairness he's learning patterns and it takes time.

He's far from the finished article. He needs to be fitter and he needs to generally improve.

It's 250k, though. You don't get the finished article of a 6'2", rapid, technical goal-scorer for 250k.

People sound like they're expecting a Ferrari when we've paid for a kit car.

But I think this is where the issue lies. Our aim next season, our sole aim as articulated by Sharon, Evatt and a number of players is to finish in the top 2. Promotion is now the line between success and failure.

Nlundulu might be value if you are saying 'well we are just developing players and seeing where we get and we can add value to him'.

But the money we spend has to put us in a place where we are better than we were last season, particularly in terms of the goals we score and thus propel us into the league above. Given I think general expectation is we might have say £1M in total to spend on fees and maybe another million or so extra for wages - that is a big outlay for a player who last season general consensus was 'he's not good enough'. And when the test was there in the big games at the end, wasn't good enough.

Yes he may improve. He may become that striker. But our investments should be weighed not on 'well if he comes off it will be good value' and more in ''is that money spent going to improve us significantly enough to get us where we want to be?'

[Prufrock]

I don't think we've signed him to be a rough diamond work in progress who might come good in a year. You can argue whether the evidence backs it up (though they have more than we do) but they're expecting him to contribute next year. We can only wait and see.

[boltonboris]

Yep. He needs to deliver. I'd also add that with financial backing and the pre-season promotion bluster from Shazza et al, that this is the first time that I would consider Evatt to be under any form of proper pressure. He needs to deliver this season. His players need to deliver and any new signings with fees attached need to deliver.

Not in 2-3 years. Straight away

[BWFC_Insane]

Yep. He needs to deliver. I'd also add that with financial backing and the pre-season promotion bluster from Shazza et al, that this is the first time that I would consider Evatt to be under any form of proper pressure. He needs to deliver this season. His players need to deliver and any new signings with fees attached need to deliver.

Not in 2-3 years. Straight away

Yeah this. The thing about top 2 is you can't afford slow starts or the longer poor runs we have had. So the needle will point if we're in the right direction quite quickly. Need to start well and string wins together from the off.

[Worthy4England]

Yep. He needs to deliver. I'd also add that with financial backing and the pre-season promotion bluster from Shazza et al, that this is the first time that I would consider Evatt to be under any form of proper pressure. He needs to deliver this season. His players need to deliver and any new signings with fees attached need to deliver.

Not in 2-3 years. Straight away

Yeah this. The thing about top 2 is you can't afford slow starts or the longer poor runs we have had. So the needle will point if we're in the right direction quite quickly. Need to start well and string wins together from the off.

Agree with this, think the top three didn't change at month end from August onwards between Ipswich, Sheff W and Plymouth. It typically applies to top 6, too. You usually find the teams that are there end-Aug/mid-Sept, remain there (3 out of 4 typically) - obviously it's not a "rule", but it's what seems to happen quite a lot.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

[boltonboris]

I'd expect Peterborough and Barnsley to pick up a lot of points and maybe one of the 3 relegated teams, albeit 2/3rds of them will be starting on minus points!

Derby in the running too if they can sign a striker

I'd back us to be one of the top 4/5 again, but will have a clearer picture come the end of October

[boltonboris]

If we do start well and continue into the Winter in the top 2, it'll be interesting to see we cope. Under Evatt, we've only ever chased the front runners, we've never had anybody trying to chase us down really. Different kind of pressure

[Worthy4England]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

I don't think that'd stand up well in front of the fans..."we're 9th but just look how we overperformed last year" probably isn't going to wash. Especially with the "backed by the Board" and "The bond's done well" commentary.

[truewhite15]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

I don't think that'd stand up well in front of the fans..."we're 9th but just look how we overperformed last year" probably isn't going to wash. Especially with the "backed by the Board" and "The bond's done well" commentary.

I think that DSB means that the performance of the front-runners in the league in the last couple of years are statistical outliers - therefore it could well be a lower bar to jump over for promotion this time...

[Worthy4England]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

I don't think that'd stand up well in front of the fans..."we're 9th but just look how we overperformed last year" probably isn't going to wash. Especially with the "backed by the Board" and "The bond's done well" commentary.

I think that DSB means that the performance of the front-runners in the league in the last couple of years are statistical outliers - therefore it could well be a lower bar to jump over for promotion this time...

Ahh. I see. HMS, start those engines!

[Prufrock]

If we do start well and continue into the Winter in the top 2, it'll be interesting to see we cope. Under Evatt, we've only ever chased the front runners, we've never had anybody trying to chase us down really. Different kind of pressure

We wobbled twice, against Exeter and Accrington, before getting on done. But yeah, no 4 months to go 5 points clear types.

I'd like to find out

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

I don't think that'd stand up well in front of the fans..."we're 9th but just look how we overperformed last year" probably isn't going to wash. Especially with the "backed by the Board" and "The bond's done well" commentary.

I think that DSB means that the performance of the front-runners in the league in the last couple of years are statistical outliers - therefore it could well be a lower bar to jump over for promotion this time...

Thanks TW - that is what I meant but didn't express clearly enough. "We" here meaning "football" not "BW" so I understand Worthy's confusion!

[officer_dibble]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

Some big budgets in league two -be at least two of those promoted I reckon. This year is the year to push for promotion (as they all are but you know what I mean) I think.

[BWFC_Insane]

...but then again...

I wonder if we've had a couple of exceedingly strong League One seasons that were somewhat outliers...

Guess we might see this season. Although obviously "Guess we'll see" isn't exactly forum dynamite.

I don't think that'd stand up well in front of the fans..."we're 9th but just look how we overperformed last year" probably isn't going to wash. Especially with the "backed by the Board" and "The bond's done well" commentary.

I think that DSB means that the performance of the front-runners in the league in the last couple of years are statistical outliers - therefore it could well be a lower bar to jump over for promotion this time...

Thanks TW - that is what I meant but didn't express clearly enough. "We" here meaning "football" not "BW" so I understand Worthy's confusion!

Season pre covid Luton and Barnsley went up with over 90 points a piece. I’m not convinced it will be that much different this year. Hopefully it will be regardless I think we will need more than last year and best to be prepared for needing 100 points rather than being short.