Manager of the Month

[seanworth]

have to admit my heart sank the second I saw the headline.

[thebish]

the so-called MOTM curse is simply the age-old statistical phenomenon of "regression to the mean". It crops up all over the place and catches people out..

f'rinstance - speed cameras...

we are told that speed cameras are effective because accidents drop in the weeks after one is installed.

but... accident statistics go up and down normally - just by chance - it would be weird if they stayed the same for a stretch of road every year.

by definition - cameras are installed after a particularly high incidence of accidents on a stretch of road... the chances are that they would inevitably drop (regress to the mean) in the next few months - whatever you did or didn't do... if you painted every other kerb stone green - or buried at guinea pig at the spot - they would drop...

the same is true of MOTM - it is awarded at a high spot - the balance of probability is that we will regress to the mean... it isn't a curse - it's just pure simple chance. we would regress to the mean whether it was awarded or not.

[lovethesmellofnapalm]

the so-called MOTM curse is simply the age-old statistical phenomenon of "regression to the mean". It crops up all over the place and catches people out..

f'rinstance - speed cameras...

we are told that speed cameras are effective because accidents drop in the weeks after one is installed.

but... accident statistics go up and down normally - just by chance - it would be weird if they stayed the same for a stretch of road every year.

by definition - cameras are installed after a particularly high incidence of accidents on a stretch of road... the chances are that they would inevitably drop (regress to the mean) in the next few months - whatever you did or didn't do... if you painted every other kerb stone green - or buried at guinea pig at the spot - they would drop...

the same is true of MOTM - it is awarded at a high spot - the balance of probability is that we will regress to the mean... it isn't a curse - it's just pure simple chance. we would regress to the mean whether it was awarded or not.

i am so impressed by the level of diligence you have applied to this analysis.
truly inspiring

[thebish]

i am so impressed by the level of diligence you have applied to this analysis.
truly inspiring

I try my best!!

it's just one of a growing list of bollox-tittery that football fans spout!

(see also - we're always last on MOTD, if Lawro predicts us to win we'll lose, we always end bad streaks for other players/clubs)

it is slightly more serious when politicians make the same glaring mathematical errors to support their policies, though...

on this theme - I also get cross at the phrase "not mathematically safe" - as if the "mathematically" adds something!!

[ohjimmyjimmy]

i bet you're a hoot at parties...

[thebish]

i bet you're a hoot at parties...

people marvel at my mathematical dexterity!

[Wandering Willy]

You have a lot of balls on your abacus.

[steviewander]

Has to be John Terry right....