A Shrewd Idea...Home v Shrewsbury Sat 22nd April 3'O'clock.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Can't disagree with you on most of the above, BWFCi, but I'm always a bit wary of the idea that having nothing to play for makes a team relax into being world-beaters. I think it's especially false of "tough nuts" teams, like when Tony Pulis's Stoke would get to 40 points then go on holiday.

It’s not that I think they become world beaters. It’s that say Cambridge. We were awful. Still second half we should have buried the game and didn’t. Even though we did not play at all well they were bad enough that we should have won it. We ended up with a nervy few minutes hanging on to a 1-0 which at this stage with the nerves on our side a team fighting for everything with little to lose means a set piece or ball into the box can as Evatt says lead to the sort of thing Cambridge pulled off.

Doesn’t make them world beaters. But heightened stakes mean 1-0 is not a comfortable place to be in the closing stages. Is all I’m saying.

Burton game you could argue at 1-0 we could have pressed on more for a second. Killed it off. But didn’t.

We really need to ensure we keep going at 1-0 and take chances when they arise.

Oh for sure but I'd say that's a separate thing – we've only scored six in the last eight league games, haven't scored a second in any of them. That's not about the oppos playing above their game, it's about us playing below ours - if we want to go up, that is.

[BWFC_Insane]

Can't disagree with you on most of the above, BWFCi, but I'm always a bit wary of the idea that having nothing to play for makes a team relax into being world-beaters. I think it's especially false of "tough nuts" teams, like when Tony Pulis's Stoke would get to 40 points then go on holiday.

It’s not that I think they become world beaters. It’s that say Cambridge. We were awful. Still second half we should have buried the game and didn’t. Even though we did not play at all well they were bad enough that we should have won it. We ended up with a nervy few minutes hanging on to a 1-0 which at this stage with the nerves on our side a team fighting for everything with little to lose means a set piece or ball into the box can as Evatt says lead to the sort of thing Cambridge pulled off.

Doesn’t make them world beaters. But heightened stakes mean 1-0 is not a comfortable place to be in the closing stages. Is all I’m saying.

Burton game you could argue at 1-0 we could have pressed on more for a second. Killed it off. But didn’t.

We really need to ensure we keep going at 1-0 and take chances when they arise.

Oh for sure but I'd say that's a separate thing – we've only scored six in the last eight league games, haven't scored a second in any of them. That's not about the oppos playing above their game, it's about us playing below ours - if we want to go up, that is.

Yes and not just trying to see out a 1-0 because like it or not that’s harder now than it is in say October….

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yes and not just trying to see out a 1-0 because like it or not that’s harder now than it is in say October….

Heh, it's an interesting theory. Entirely plausible. I'd also say once you go 2-0 up, more teams fold now than when they have summat to play for.

Then again, we've had some last-day games at the UniBok that have swung to and fro... Fleetwood and of course Forest... although in some cases, I guess players play a lot more loosely...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Evatt: “Kieran Lee trained fine today, no issues... He has a hip problem which has been niggling at him for a while, a degenerative injury. He’s getting an old man, so we needed to take a bit of time to settle things down but I am pretty hopeful that he will be available again for the weekend.

"Rico and Eoin - as I said last week - the longer we can give them to rehabilitate, the better. They are improving day by day. They are not quite there yet but nearly... It is too soon this weekend but we will take it game by game and then see where we are at.”

[TANGODANCER]

I would make them all practise shooting in a phone kiosk/telephone box. No time for second touches, no time for "ready-steady-go, no set-up time, no leaning back, just "hit it". Might not achieve much, but at least is couldn't be much worse. We might actually score a few.

[TonyDomingos]

Good news, I've had ChatGPT on it....It doesn't have a clue whether we'll make the playoffs...

I've been on to Bard and it reckons you're all a bunch of panic fannys

Who needs ChatGPT?

Panic fannies.

It'll be reet.

We'll shit 'em 4-0.

[The_Gun]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

Annoyed about what? We played well. Missed some chances. Got a point we all said we’d be happy with pre kick off.

Nobody missed chances deliberately. It ‘is a bit frustrating’ but whole piece since Wembley we’ve got more points than I think we’d have expected and that is with not playing brilliantly since then.

Annoyed we didn't win a game we should have done. The whole 'we would have been happy with a point before kick off' is such nonsense. It's not before kick off, it's after the match, and we fluffed a load of chances to take an additional two points.

'Nobody missed chances deliberately' is a good one coming from you. On the off chance that you're ever critical of one of our players in the future (fairly unlikely, I know), I'll be sure to remind you of this.

[BWFC_Insane]

Well yeah, recency bias and all that. I’m still annoyed about Tuesday and don’t really get why our fans seem so accepting of it.

Annoyed about what? We played well. Missed some chances. Got a point we all said we’d be happy with pre kick off.

Nobody missed chances deliberately. It ‘is a bit frustrating’ but whole piece since Wembley we’ve got more points than I think we’d have expected and that is with not playing brilliantly since then.

Annoyed we didn't win a game we should have done. The whole 'we would have been happy with a point before kick off' is such nonsense. It's not before kick off, it's after the match, and we fluffed a load of chances to take an additional two points.

'Nobody missed chances deliberately' is a good one coming from you. On the off chance that you're ever critical of one of our players in the future (fairly unlikely, I know), I'll be sure to remind you of this.

Thing is, Burton should have been 1-0 up in under a minute and had a golden chance to equalise just before half time. Not to mention an absolute wonder save from Trafford.

Of course it was frustrating not to score another at least but we’ve had games with more chances this season and probably more one sided games we’ve not won. Plymouth at home for example.

Not sure we can be ‘annoyed’ because we played well gave it everything and a point in the circumstances was decent. Frustrated - but annoyed was last years dismal effort there for me.

[The_Gun]

Yeah, I get your point that putting in terrible performances is obviously more frustrating, but overall I think Burton didn't play very well on Tuesday and it turned out to be a much more winnable game than we might have anticipated.

[BWFC_Insane]

Yeah, I get your point that putting in terrible performances is obviously more frustrating, but overall I think Burton didn't play very well on Tuesday and it turned out to be a much more winnable game than we might have anticipated.

I was more annoyed that we played so poorly against Cambridge which was really a winnable game if we’d turned up at the start.

[TANGODANCER]

Let's not forget the human nature element when assessing the "what might have been".
There are no guarantees in sport and Burton might just as easily have spanked us had their shooting and heading been on the mark ; they weren't,didn't and our own failings to capitalise on chances got a get out of jail card and a point.The same failings will always differ according to the score. If we hadn't been in front....??/ Okay, we upped the ante in the second half, but being in front puts a different perspective on things.

In short, let's be grateful for what we get and not forget Superman, Captain Marvel and Sherlock Holmes are but print on paper. Roy's Rolls are nearer reality than Roy of the Rovers. Here endeth the first lesson...

COME ON YOU WHITES... ..

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, I get your point that putting in terrible performances is obviously more frustrating, but overall I think Burton didn't play very well on Tuesday and it turned out to be a much more winnable game than we might have anticipated.

Agree that we had enough chances to put it to bed, and should have. Also agree with Insano, that on another day, they might have had more than 1, too.

I would be disappointed, if we hadn't been doing it a fair amount over the season - guess I'm sort of "used to it," and have adjusted my expectations accordingly. I think this is sort of where we're at, at the moment, we have a decent side of hard working players, who on their day can be really, really good. But that's not the norm, on a normal day we're better than average but not world beaters. Right now, we're probably not kicking ourselves as much as some in the top 8.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I would be disappointed, if we hadn't been doing it a fair amount over the season - guess I'm sort of "used to it," and have adjusted my expectations accordingly. I think this is sort of where we're at, at the moment, we have a decent side of hard working players, who on their day can be really, really good. But that's not the norm, on a normal day we're better than average but not world beaters. Right now, we're probably not kicking ourselves as much as some in the top 8.

This brings to mind something I noticed yesterday when updating my stats records. I hadn't been doing it for a few weeks due to holiday and its inevitable preceding business, so on catching up I noticed... we've not been very good recently.

Trigger warning: it's about xG, and I know some of you hate that.

Here's our recent results, with possession, shots, shots on target and xG. (Sources: PA via BBC for everything except xG, which comes from Experimental 361; he doesn't do JPT games and hasn't done Burton yet.)
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Screenshot 2023-04-21 at 12.29.02.png (383.47 KiB) Viewed 751 times

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In all cases (and with apologies to the colourblind), the numbers are automatically gradiented – red is worse and green is better. The most important column is obviously at the extreme right, but many of the others are blinking worryingly vermilion. Put bluntly, by these stats (including the shots ones) we were lucky to beat FGR, Vale and Exeter, and the Oxford win required more jam than Hartley's.

Now, some will say that the ability to absorb pressure and still get results is the mark of a successful team. Even Pep Guardiola is moving somewhat in that direction, letting Bayern dominate possession the other night yet remaining comfortable thanks to the five centre-backs he played (it's Pep Pulis!). However, I do worry that outperforming statistical expectation is something that can't last forever, with the ever-present possibility of reversion to the mean snapping back like a brick on elastic.

So that's why I was less worried by Tuesday's stats than some others. It's our most efforts on goal since Charlton in January, and our second-highest number of accurate efforts in the same timeframe. Experimental 361 hasn't filed xG numbers for that game yet but other sources have us on 2.5, which would be our best return since the Posh 5-0 (better even than the MK Dons 5-0). Coming at a so-called bogey ground, on a pitch that doesn't suit us, it's a good sign. And one we need to build on if we're to end this season in further triumph.

[The_Gun]

I don't think anyone was concerned about Tuesday's performance, DSB, it's more frustration that when we finally turned in a decent showing, we didn't convert it to maximum points. If we kick on and keep putting in those type of performances then great, we'll probably be ok, but if we revert to recent type, not taking our chances when we actually created them might come back to bite us.

[officer_dibble]

What team does he pick for tomorrow? Sheehan in for Thomason and that’s it I think for me. Possibly Kacha for Victor up top but that’s more with a nod to having a goal on the bench. Hopefully Lee is back on the bench as well.

[BWFC_Insane]

What team does he pick for tomorrow? Sheehan in for Thomason and that’s it I think for me. Possibly Kacha for Victor up top but that’s more with a nod to having a goal on the bench. Hopefully Lee is back on the bench as well.

Shrewsbury’s threat is balls into the box and set plays. I imagine. On that basis I’d not be shocked to see the same team start. Though Dec for Randell probably.

[officer_dibble]

Yeah see your point though more of an onus on us as home team and it’s a better pitch, better game for Sheehan.

[Mar]

I don't think anyone was concerned about Tuesday's performance, DSB, it's more frustration that when we finally turned in a decent showing, we didn't convert it to maximum points. If we kick on and keep putting in those type of performances then great, we'll probably be ok, but if we revert to recent type, not taking our chances when we actually created them might come back to bite us.

I also think that the chasing teams bearing down on us also adds to the tension. Getting a frustrating draw against Burton wouldn't have been such an issue earlier in the season but now, knowing that we need the results and putting in a decent performance and not getting anything, just ends up making it look like a missed opportunity.

Take the first half of the match against Burton. It very much seemed like we were ambivalent and sitting on the lead as opposed to going out to secure the victory with another goal. This meant that our best striking option wasn't around later in the game when the team decided to up the effort levels and go for a goal.

We had enough chances to win it and probably should have.

The big issue is, Charles aside, we have strikers that don't look like scoring. Adeboyejo's got 3 goals in the league, a deflected effort, a very close header and a decent strike against Sheffield Wednesday. Something doesn't seem right.

Goal involvements from forwards since the start of February:

Cheltenham 1-0:
Peterborough 5-0: Charles x3 (2 pens),
MK Dons 5-0:
Wycombe 0-1:
Accrington 2-0: Kacha
Port Vale 2-1: Adeboyejo
Portmouth 1-3: Charles
Morecambe 0-0:
Ipswich 0-2:
Sheff Wed 1-1: Adeboyejo
Plymouth 4-0: Kacha, Charles
Exeter 1-0:
Cambridge 1-1:
Oxford 1-0: Charles
Burton 1-1: Adeboyejo


That's 11 goals from forwards in 15 matches since Feb. 6 of those coming from Charles (2 pens) which leaves 5 goals from the competition. Not a great return.

League goals this season:

Charles - 16
Adeboyejo - 3
Bodvarsson (inj) - 3
Bakayoko - 1
Jerome - 0
Kacha - 0
N'lundulu - 0
Shoretire - 0

It's a poor return all season, and this has been a good season. The problem we've got is that coming into the last 4 games of the season and needing to get over the line in the promotion race we would need to get goals, and we're not looking likely to get them, aside from Charles.

Obviously scoring goals isn't the be all and end all, its helping the team and building towards goals for others. So these players have definitely helped in doing that aswell as being defensively solid. The trouble is, if our strikers are working hard to setup others who have the same issue of being unable to finish then we've got a problem.

Thomason's shot over the bar in the last game typified our current state. So close but no goal, and I suspect that's why he's got the criticism, however unfair on the lad it is.

We've gone from a forward line that looked really threatening off the bench to a bench that looks toothless.


I'm hoping that Jerome, Kacha, N'lundulu and Shoretire come good. Kacha's certainly made himself somewhat of a cup hero for the club. As for the rest of them there's still time for the Aaron Wilbraham school of late hero status.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^ I agree about January striker and attacking signings. They've not worked out. But the midfield can score too? As can the defence. We absolutely need far more out of Morley in that regard if he's going to make it at a level up at all. He's improved the defensive aspects of his game to the point he can be regarded as a number 6/8 of a certain type but he absolutely needs to add more output the other end given he's no Kante and never will be....

Dempsey too could score more...should score more....

Sheehan can score goals but probably doesn't enough...

Thomasson...well he needs to improve there massively.

We've had bursts of goals from defenders but again we lack that consistent threat from our own set plays and the like....

[Mar]

I was thinking our midfield output wasn't that bad but in reality those numbers are relatively low as well.

Last season:

Sadlier 4 in 18
Lee 5 in 25
Sheehan 4 in 15
Sarcevic 3 in 14
Thomason 1 in 13
MJ 1 in 40
Morley 1 in 21


Not too dissimilar from last season. Notable improvements from Kyle Dempsey and Morley this season so there have been some improvements, but is arguable we're taking too long getting the ball into the person who is going to have a shot.


On the flip side, this may be a deliberate attempt to retain possession and prevent a turnover therefore ensuring we're less susceptible to conceding.