The run-in

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Might be a tad early, and quite possibly to be rendered redundant by either business or bizness, but I’ve been having a look at the run-in and thought it might be worth starting a thread to look purely at the games we’ve got and whether we can win them. Feel free to contribute, whether quantitatively (“Rotherham haven’t won away since August!”) or qualitatively (“Charlton are in an even worse state than us!”).

A stat to start. We’re the division’s 18th-best home side: better than Rotherham, Blackburn, Fulham, Bristol City and Charlton. Sadly we’re the worst away side, but the next-worst (in order) are McDons, Rotherham, Charlton, Bristol City, Reading and Fulham.

Clearly home form will be key. Easier typed than done but try to win a few home games, try not to lose every away game. Without being overly optimistic we have some winnable games coming up.

First, what are we aiming for? These are the points won by the best relegated team - i.e. the points to beat - for the last 10 seasons, going backwards: 41, 44, 54*, 40, 42, 47, 46, 52*, 42 and 42.

The two marked* seem to me to be statistical outliers. In 2013 relegated Posh were only 14 points behind sixth-placed Forest, and in 2008 Leicester were only 18 behind sixth-placed Watford. In other recent seasons that 6th-22nd gap has been 37, 28, 35, 33, 23, 28, 33 and 33. The current gap is already 23 points, and the promotion-chasing teams are in much better recent form than the drop-dodgers.

As for the pace this season, it’s a little slower: 22nd has 25 points whereas it was 27 this time last season. There’s also more bunching in the bottom six: last year bottom-placed Blackpool were even worse than us this year (20pts to 21), but second-bottom Wigan were 11 points behind 19th place, whereas now that gap is just four points (Charlton to Fulham).

There’s lots of moving parts but I have a hunch that 42 points might do it. In which case we’re halfway there, but obviously we need to pick up the pace. It’s possible to pick 7 wins out of the remaining fixture list - we have 9 home games, for a start, and I think 5 are achievable (Rotherham, QPR, Preston, Reading, Charlton) with anything against Burnley, Ipswich (who have the second-best away record), Boro and Hull being a very welcome bonus.

Which would leave us needing two away wins. We travel to Fulham on the last day and to Bristol City on 19 Mar. We’ve also got trips to Leeds and, for the optimists, Brighton next weekend (two narrow wins after previous-eight form of DDLDLLLL).

Here are the remaining games, including each opponent’s current place in the home/away results table, as relevant - so Rotherham are the third-worst travelling team, Brighton the 5th-best at home, etc. Where do you think we can get seven wins?

H Rotherham (22nd)
A Brighton (5th)
H QPR (13th)
A Birmingham (11th - they’re the best away team but shaky at home)
H Burnley (5th)
A Leeds (19th)
H Ipswich (2nd)
H Preston (11th - they’ve got as many points away as at home)
A Bristol City (23rd)
H Reading (19th)
A Brentford (12th)
A Derby (6th)
H Middlesbrough (3rd)
H Charlton (21st)
A Cardiff (7th)
H Hull (6th)
A Fulham (22nd)

[Lord Kangana]

If we don't beat Rotherham, it leaves us 5 points off MK Dons (if they don't get a point) but a minimum 7 points off everyone else. Heaven forbid we lose and a combination of MK Dons, Fulham and Blackburn get points.

So. Massive game. Really, it's a cliche, but really it's a massive game.

Can only really contribute to this thread beyond that after saturday's game. I believe it's that big.

[Lord Kangana]

Just noticed MK Dons game in hand too. Admittedly Boro, but at home.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Oh I agree, LK. Lose this weekend - draw, even - and we might as well start another thread entitled "The Division Three first XI". Might do that anyway.

In the spirit of OGAAT (One Game At A Time), this weekend's fixtures:

Current position:
Bolton (24) v Rotherham (21)
Cardiff (9) v MK Dons (20)
Charlton (23) v Bristol City (22)
Fulham (19) v Derby (4)

Form table (last 8 games):
Bolton (20) v Rotherham (14)
Cardiff (11) v MK Dons (15)
Charlton (23) v Bristol City (22)
Fulham (24) v Derby (16)

Home/away position, as applicable, over the season:
Bolton (18) v Rotherham (22)
Cardiff (7) v MK Dons (23)
Charlton (24) v Bristol City (20)
Fulham (22) v Derby (4)

[Jugs]

You're very good, DSB. Can I ask, do you write for a football magazine?

[Prufrock]

Given the way we've been this season I reckon we're less likely to get those 21 points from 7 wins as from 2 wins and 15 draws!

[BWFC_Insane]

Logically looking at form for well over the last 12 months, we cannot do this.

What we need is one of those weird runs where a side that seems doomed suddenly hits inexplicable form. The sort Wigan used to pull off in the premiership run ins. If the right spirit is there I think something like that is possible with a fair wind.

[Harry Genshaw]

That Blackpool side last year were the most doomed looking side I could remember from recent times. It's Feb and we're only a point in front of where they were? I've seen nowt to suggest we can get out of this.

[TANGODANCER]

We can and will do it simply because, given other worries than just league positions, we have no choice. The club has much to resolve and the playing half need to contribute some encouragement to the fans without whom none of it will matter. We need to show some fight and pride in the team or we'll be picking a side from Tonge Ward Conservative and Labour Clubs and get re-named the lily-livered whites, or even worse, Horwich Rovers, because the fans will all be going from Blackrod, Rivington and Horwich and not Bolton. We will survive....

[Lost Leopard Spot]

A question. Has any League club ever gone an entire season and not won an away match before? (Just asking).
EDIT: thinking about it that really shite Derby side that got relegated on the worst point score ever must have done that.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

A question. Has any League club ever gone an entire season and not won an away match before? (Just asking).
EDIT: thinking about it that really shite Derby side that got relegated on the worst point score ever must have done that.

Derby were only one of six clubs to have "managed" this "feat", in the PL era, in the PL itself. Roll of dishonour:

Leeds United (1992–93)
Coventry City (1999–2000)
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003–04)
Norwich City (2004–05)
Derby County (2007–08)
Hull City (2009–10)

We also managed it ourselves in 1949/50 (finished 16th in the top flight) and 1979/80 (finished bottom of the top flight). So I imagine there's quite a few have done it.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

A question. Has any League club ever gone an entire season and not won an away match before? (Just asking).
EDIT: thinking about it that really shite Derby side that got relegated on the worst point score ever must have done that.

Derby were only one of six clubs to have "managed" this "feat", in the PL era, in the PL itself. Roll of dishonour:

Leeds United (1992–93)
Coventry City (1999–2000)
Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003–04)
Norwich City (2004–05)
Derby County (2007–08)
Hull City (2009–10)

We also managed it ourselves in 1949/50 (finished 16th in the top flight) and 1979/80 (finished bottom of the top flight). So I imagine there's quite a few have done it.

Yeh, if six have done it in the PL then plenty more must have done it in the rest of the league and the old division one. Cheers.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Back to this weekend. As LK says, it's a must-win - and the fact Charlton (23rd) host Bristol City (22nd) is also aces - they can't both win. If they draw and we win, the bottom four would be

Bristol City 26
------------
Rotherham 25
Charlton 25
Bolton 24

...which would be rather interesting. And for the record, and thinking with logical head rather than worried heart, the formbook predicts losses for McDons (26pts) and Fulham (28pts)...

These sorts of weekends don't come along too often. We could concertina in from 4pts adrift to just 2, or it could all go horribly wrong and we drift to 7 points, having f*cked up another golden opportunity.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Yeh, if we lose and Bristol Titty win, then:

Fulham 28
Rotherham 28
Bristol City 28
---------------
MK Dons 26 & a game in hand
Charlton 24
Bolton 21

[plymouth wanderer]

Am I right in thinking the team bottom at Christmas has never stayed up in the Championship?

If so, we have to break records!

[CrazyHorse]

Of course we can get out of it.
There's not much between the bottom six; we're all basically fecking shite.
And there's only a fag paper between the bottom four and we all can't go down.

Only a twelve point deduction will see us relegated. I'm telling ya.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Another way of looking at our chances of staying up is to compare our run in matches against a designated rival.
Let's say then that we accept Charlton and Bristol City as going down, we can then designate Rotherham as our nearest rival.
This is our run-in (with present league positions after each team)
H Rotherham 21
A Brighton 5
H QPR 13
A Birmingham 8
H Burnley 3
A Leeds 15
H Ipswich 6
H Preston 14
A Bristol City 22
H Reading 16
A Brentford 10
A Derby 4
H Middlesbrough 2
H Charlton 23
A Cardiff 9
H Hull 1
A Fulham 19

and this is Rotherham's:

A Bolton 24
H Birmingham 8
A Burnley 3
A Reading 16
H Brentford 10
A Sheff Wed 7
H Middlesbrough 2
H Derby 4
A Ipswich 6
H Leeds 15
A Bristol City 22
A MK Dons 20
H Nottm Forest 11
H Huddersfield 17
A Wolves 12
H Blackburn 18
A Hull 1

If we add up the league positions of the teams we both play we get
Bolton 191
Rotherham 196

and if we weight against Away matches by (A)/1.5 then we get
Bolton 127
Rotherham 159

^ but we need to remember in this evaluation a higher number is good, a lower number is bad.
Therefore the conclusion is, if Rotherham are our biggest rivals in the fight to stay up they have an easier run-in period than we do.
Bad News Bears.

[Nicko58]

Don't be shocked if Blackburn get dragged into it. They look pretty safe at the minute as they're five points clear with two games in hand, but they've just sold Jordan Rhodes and are on a poor run for form (they lost to us for crying out loud).

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

An interesting metric technique, but I would say that away wins outweigh home wins by more than a factor of 1.5 for both us (17pts H, 4pts A) and Rotherham (17pts H, 8pts A). Charlton (15H 9A) and Brizzle (15H 10A) are closer to your ratio - Brizzle bob-on, in fact.

It's all about the home games, Brian, for each of the bottom six. None of those sides from Fulham down have won more than two road trips. I'd be interested in running your metric across the home games only for all six teams.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Don't be shocked if Blackburn get dragged into it. They look pretty safe at the minute as they're five points clear with two games in hand, but they've just sold Jordan Rhodes and are on a poor run for form (they lost to us for crying out loud).

Indeed. This site displays form over however many games you like, but here's three versions of "recent":

Form, last 6 games:
15 Bolton 7pts
16 McDons 7
17 Leeds 6
18 Reading 5
19 Charlton 5
20 Fulham 4
21 Brizzle 4
22 Rotherham 4
23 Derby 3
24 Blackburn 2

Form, last 8 games:
14 Rotherham 10pts
15 McDons 10
16 Derby 9
17 QPR 8
18 Reading 8
19 Brighton 8
20 Bolton 8
21 Blackburn 6
22 Brizzle 6
23 Charlton 6
24 Fulham 5

Form, last 10 games:
17 Blackburn 10
18 Rotherham 10
19 McDons 10
20 Brizzle 9
21 Reading 8
22 Bolton 8
23 Charlton 8
24 Fulham 6