The run-in

[Lost Leopard Spot]

An interesting metric technique, but I would say that away wins outweigh home wins by more than a factor of 1.5 for both us (17pts H, 4pts A) and Rotherham (17pts H, 8pts A). Charlton (15H 9A) and Brizzle (15H 10A) are closer to your ratio - Brizzle bob-on, in fact.

It's all about the home games, Brian, for each of the bottom six. None of those sides from Fulham down have won more than two road trips. I'd be interested in running your metric across the home games only for all six teams.

I would quite liked to have done all six teams but I ran out of time, hence why I chose Rotherham only. I might try tomorrow but tonight I'm out on the town

[Enoch]

This is one of them threads about birds with dangly bits, isn't it?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

An interesting metric technique, but I would say that away wins outweigh home wins by more than a factor of 1.5 for both us (17pts H, 4pts A) and Rotherham (17pts H, 8pts A). Charlton (15H 9A) and Brizzle (15H 10A) are closer to your ratio - Brizzle bob-on, in fact.

It's all about the home games, Brian, for each of the bottom six. None of those sides from Fulham down have won more than two road trips. I'd be interested in running your metric across the home games only for all six teams.

I would quite liked to have done all six teams but I ran out of time, hence why I chose Rotherham only. I might try tomorrow but tonight I'm out on the town

I think we've got time. The relegation battle has legs.

All it boils down to is: we need to win, particularly at home, particularly against rivals. So I thought I'd have a look at the games left between the bottom six: The Relegation Six-Pointers.

Bolton v Rotherham 6/2
Charlton v Bristol City 6/2
McDons v Bristol City 20/2
Fulham v Charlton 20/2
Charlton v McDons 8/3
Fulham v Bristol City 12/3
Bristol City v Bolton 29/3
Fulham v McDons 2/4
Bristol City v Rotherham 5/4
McDons v Rotherham 9/4
Bolton v Charlton 19/4
Fulham v Bolton 7/5

So there's two this Saturday, then two more a fortnight later - a great chance for us (at home to water-treading QPR) to take advantage.

In terms of how many times teams play bottom-six rivals:
Bolton 2H 2A
Rotherham 0H 3A
Charlton 2H 2A
Bristol City 2H 3A
McDons 2H 2A
Fulham 4H 0A

Looks to me like Rotherham have the most to fear and Fulham least. Fulham have to host the bottom four, with no trips to relegation rivals; Rotherham have to travel to Bolton, Bristol and MK, with no home advantage.

Mind you, last time the Millers had home advantage to a poor team, they got dicked 4-1 by Charlton…

[plymouth wanderer]

Am I right in thinking the team bottom at Christmas has ever stayed up in the Championship?

If so, we have to break records!

Not sure mate! why don't you ask the forum??

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Am I right in thinking the team bottom at Christmas has ever stayed up in the Championship?

If so, we have to break records!

Not sure mate! why don't you ask the forum??

There's an echo in here.


And I think you meant never...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

And yes Enoch, it's one of them threads about female blood relatives with male extrusions who'd make a killing in the brothels of Thailand

[plymouth wanderer]

Am I right in thinking the team bottom at Christmas has ever stayed up in the Championship?

If so, we have to break records!

Not sure mate! why don't you ask the forum??

There's an echo in here.


And I think you meant never...

Amended

[officer_dibble]

How many points will do it then? Could it be as low as 40?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

How many points will do it then? Could it be as low as 40?

Might be, if everyone at the bottom carries on being rubbish

I'd rather get to 42 or 44 though

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Looks like Bristol City are going to hire Lee Johnson, a 34-year-old who's never managed at this level before.

Although to his credit, he did keep Oldham up and his current side Barnsley have won 9 in the last 11.

Although to his discredit, earlier in the season they lost 8 in 9 (including in the FA Cup to Altrincham).

[Lord Kangana]

Dead cat bounce effect of binning your old manager can give you momentum. We should know, we've tried it a couple of time.

[jonnycooper]

Looks like Bristol City are going to hire Lee Johnson, a 34-year-old who's never managed at this level before.

Although to his credit, he did keep Oldham up and his current side Barnsley have won 9 in the last 11.

Although to his discredit, earlier in the season they lost 8 in 9 (including in the FA Cup to Altrincham).

And he's got them to the LDV final at Wemberlee!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Dead cat bounce effect of binning your old manager can give you momentum. We should know, we've tried it a couple of time.

They binned Cotterill on 14 Jan and immediately beat Boro 1-0 at home - but since then they've not scored, losing 0-1 at home to WBA in the Cup, losing 1-0 at Leeds then drawing 0-0 at home to Birmingham.

Whether they'll get a new-guy uptick remains to be seen, but I hope not. Nothing against 'em (bar that Freight Rover Trophy final and nicking Tony Caldwell) but y'know, it's dog eat dog.

[Lord Kangana]

Bastards. Never forget that Wembley tw*tting.

[bobo the clown]

Cheeky c*nts tried to steal our Zach. Hope they sink without trace.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

One of a series of interesting data visualisations from Experimental 3-6-1:



"This graphic makes you feel sorry for Bolton‘s creative players. The quality of chances created by the Trotters is on a par with Derby and Brighton but not only are the forwards struggling to finish these off but the defence is also among the poorer performers, meaning that their efforts have often been for nothing."

Worth a couple of minutes of your time.
http://experimental361.com/2016/02/08/s ... -feb-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Jugs]

Who do we even class as our creative players? Mark Davies, Feeney, Silva ... ?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Who do we even class as our creative players? Mark Davies, Feeney, Silva ... ?

plus Clough and, lately, Trotter.

[BWFC_Insane]

I really appreciate the analysis that goes into those graphics. Just goes to show that we should really be a midtable side all things considered, but our shocking defending has really cost us. I continue to hope that we'll stay up, but I think it'll be down to other teams performing worse than us fully climbing out of the mess.

I'd say our "main" creative types are currently Feeney, Silva, Clough, Pratley, Mavies (when those two turn up), and recently Trotter. Although t'offish site assists chart seems quite low, having us down as only having scored 17 goals from assists. Anyone got a good site for checking those stats? Loads for goals, but assist charts seem wildly inconsistent with each other.

Shocking defending and inability to convert chances. You don't really need to be analysing stats to see that.

I think though that the back four aren't all that bad. In my view our midfield have been a big problem in how we defend. Though that has been the case here since Coyle's time.

[Jugs]

We've missed Le Fondre.