The run-in

[BWFC_Insane]

We've missed Le Fondre.

We weren't really that good with him in the side though. I'd say we've missed a mobile target man who can sometimes hold the ball up, has a bit of pace and doesn't consistently miss chances that are easier to score.

You can probably add 10 points on if someone had converted even half of the decent chances Madine has missed.

[Jugs]

We've missed Le Fondre.

We weren't really that good with him in the side though. I'd say we've missed a mobile target man who can sometimes hold the ball up, has a bit of pace and doesn't consistently miss chances that are easier to score.

You can probably add 10 points on if someone had converted even half of the decent chances Madine has missed.

Yeah, but Le Fondre would have stuck a few of these missed chances away. He was worth a few extra points.

[BWFC_Insane]

We've missed Le Fondre.

We weren't really that good with him in the side though. I'd say we've missed a mobile target man who can sometimes hold the ball up, has a bit of pace and doesn't consistently miss chances that are easier to score.

You can probably add 10 points on if someone had converted even half of the decent chances Madine has missed.

Yeah, but Le Fondre would have stuck a few of these missed chances away. He was worth a few extra points.

Yep, but given how we play it'd have been like last season whereby Le Fondre on his own up front doesn't work.

I mean any decent striker would be a huge improvement. But I think we'd be better off simply through keeping Craig Davies. Not a great player by any means but surely he'd not have missed the sitters Madine has? And he was more effective holding the thing up.

[TANGODANCER]

Personally, I'd reckon the Juke would have been our best bet...if it were an option.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

As this is the run-in thread: Rotherham have sacked Redfearn. Bye!!

(and only four days after he appointed his old team-mate Nicky Eaden as assistant, on a 2.5yr contract)

[Jugs]

We've missed Le Fondre.

We weren't really that good with him in the side though. I'd say we've missed a mobile target man who can sometimes hold the ball up, has a bit of pace and doesn't consistently miss chances that are easier to score.

You can probably add 10 points on if someone had converted even half of the decent chances Madine has missed.

Yeah, but Le Fondre would have stuck a few of these missed chances away. He was worth a few extra points.

Yep, but given how we play it'd have been like last season whereby Le Fondre on his own up front doesn't work.

I mean any decent striker would be a huge improvement. But I think we'd be better off simply through keeping Craig Davies. Not a great player by any means but surely he'd not have missed the sitters Madine has? And he was more effective holding the thing up.

Ha, he would have! I always defended Cravies until last season when he missed so money gilt-edged chances. Hard to dig them out now, but a header from 6 yards out at Hillsborough sticks in the mind. He puts himself about more than Madine and uses his strength well, but his finishing is too similar; sometimes it's immense, but all too often he misses the easy ones.

[Lord Kangana]

As this is the run-in thread: Rotherham have sacked Redfearn. Bye!!

(and only four days after he appointed his old team-mate Nicky Eaden as assistant, on a 2.5yr contract)

What?!?!

Dead cat bounce time!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

As this is the run-in thread: Rotherham have sacked Redfearn. Bye!!

(and only four days after he appointed his old team-mate Nicky Eaden as assistant, on a 2.5yr contract)

What?!?!

Dead cat bounce time!

"As we all know football is a results driven business and our aim has to be to retain our Championship status," said chairman Tony Stewart.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

As this is the run-in thread: Rotherham have sacked Redfearn. Bye!!

(and only four days after he appointed his old team-mate Nicky Eaden as assistant, on a 2.5yr contract)

What?!?!

Dead cat bounce time!

"As we all know football is a results driven business and our aim has to be to retain our Championship status," said chairman Tony Stewart.

Apropos of that ^ there. Derby, yes Derby, have just sacked their manager. The Pep/Jose/nameanotherfxckinforeigner thing is spreading.

[Nicko58]

One of a series of interesting data visualisations from Experimental 3-6-1:



"This graphic makes you feel sorry for Bolton‘s creative players. The quality of chances created by the Trotters is on a par with Derby and Brighton but not only are the forwards struggling to finish these off but the defence is also among the poorer performers, meaning that their efforts have often been for nothing."

Worth a couple of minutes of your time.
http://experimental361.com/2016/02/08/s ... -feb-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Our lack of a proper goal threat has just as much of an impact on our defence as it does on our creative players in my opinion. When Heskey was taken off on Saturday and we played with Feeney and then Woolery up front, their pace alone caused Rotherham’s back line to retreat by a good ten yards. It stands to reason, to me at least, that it’s harder for the opposition to commit men forward if they have to worry about getting players back to plug the gap between their defence and their midfield. When we play with Heskey or Madine as the lone striker, that’s not something they have to concern themselves with. Against Leeds the other week for example, Leeds’ back line were stationed near to the half way line for most of the game.

One thing that interests me in that chart, however, is that all of the teams around us are in the ‘worse attack, worse defence’ quadrant. Over the course of a season that has to mean that we finish above them, surely?

[jonnycooper]

Craig Dawson made a hell of a contribution here! A solid defender with an eye for goal,and almost single handedly pushed us towards the play offs,although Juke did contribute..

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Derby, yes Derby, have just sacked their manager. The Pep/Jose/nameanotherfxckinforeigner thing is spreading.

IIRC Derby spent more (net!) in summer than Arsenal or Spurs. They're gambling on promotion. Gambling a lot.

Our lack of a proper goal threat has just as much of an impact on our defence as it does on our creative players in my opinion. When Heskey was taken off on Saturday and we played with Feeney and then Woolery up front, their pace alone caused Rotherham’s back line to retreat by a good ten yards. It stands to reason, to me at least, that it’s harder for the opposition to commit men forward if they have to worry about getting players back to plug the gap between their defence and their midfield. When we play with Heskey or Madine as the lone striker, that’s not something they have to concern themselves with. Against Leeds the other week for example, Leeds’ back line were stationed near to the half way line for most of the game.

Tactics 101: if the oppo's attack is slow, you can play a high line; if they're rapid, you have to retreat deep. Heskey's never been a sprinter; if he's up top you need to play the fast ones (Feeney, Silva) high to run off his flick-ons - you only need a couple in the first five minutes and the defence will drop, whether through their own nerves or the manager's.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Lennon (per BN):

Teams are starting to look at us now. We’re off the foot of the table, which psychologically is great. I’d have liked to be closer but Bristol City won at Charlton. The gap is three points now – a couple of weeks ago it was six, maybe seven. It was important we won the two home games (against MK Dons and Rotherham), and then the draw (at Wolves) in midweek, so that is good form we’re in.

Steve Walford, same source:

They haven’t given up. There has been a lot of pressure on them but I think some of them are starting to live with that a bit better. None of them want a relegation on their CV, they want to keep the club in the Championship, which would be a massive achievement. They need that belief. Staying in this league is still possible.

Elsewhere in that piece, Marc Iles has done some number-crunching and come up with the points target of 49 by averaging the 21st-place finishing totals this millennium. However, with all respect to Marc, I think that's a misleading calculation.

Firstly, we don't need to match previous 21st-place finishes, we need to finish above 22nd. A fine distinction, you might say, but we only need to finish above 22nd on goal difference, not finish points clear of them.

Secondly, and therefore, I'll repeat what I said in the OP: These are the points won by the best relegated team - i.e. the points to beat - for the last 10 seasons, going backwards: 41, 44, 54, 40, 42, 47, 46, 52, 42 and 42. Marc's average is dragged up by those two 50+ outliers; after 30 games of those seasons, the 22nd-placed teams had 31 (in 2013) and 30 (2008) points, way above the current rate of 25.

And that’s a third point: this is an unusually slow pace. The 22nd-place teams’ points after 30 games, going backwards from last season: 30, 27, 31, 25*, 28, 33, 30, 30, 30. (The only time it's been as slow as this, Forest had a game in hand but were still 5pts behind 21st).

More simply: 49 points is almost double 25 points, which is what 22nd place has now. There's almost exactly two-thirds (30/46 games) of the season gone. To say that the survival target is 49 points is to say that the drop-dodging teams will double their points haul in the final third of the season – not just one of them pulling clear, but several of them suddenly finding extra gears simultaneously. It's not impossible, but it's statistically unlikely. In five of the last 10 seasons, 43 points has been enough, and with the pace as poor as it is this season, I'd say it might even go slightly lower.

[LeverEnd]

I'm struggling to see many more points this month. March looks more doable, so if we can scrape a few points this month and maybe beat QPR at home, then we might have the confidence to get something in march. I think by the end of this month we'll be still in the bottom 3 though, probably further adrift than now. If we'd not beaten MKD and Rotherham we'd be totally fooked, so fair play to them for that.

[TANGODANCER]

I'm struggling to see many more points this month. March looks more doable, so if we can scrape a few points this month and maybe beat QPR at home, then we might have the confidence to get something in march. I think by the end of this month we'll be still in the bottom 3 though, probably further adrift than now. If we'd not beaten MKD and Rotherham we'd be totally fooked, so fair play to them for that.

We just have to have a different view of our previous " divine right " philosophy and thinking we were shoe-ins to bounce right back up or dominate a lower division. Quality everywhere has improved, mainly due to bigger squads and players fighting to get into first elevens. Now every game is backs to the wall and survive. Barcelona would be nothing if they didn't score goals, but they also are experts at keeping other teams from doing the same. We have to make sure of the latter and take our chances where and when they arrive. We're far from the best at defending our battlements and don't harass opposition players enough in our own half from what I see (which isn't everything admitted, but my views are based on commentary, views of others and highlights of soft goals given away. We can rarely say "well, not much we could have done about that one" because sloppy defending has cost us a fair few goals and points this season. Add glaring misses and it doesn't take any mystic, second sight-seer to spot reasons why we are where we are. The pond got bigger and we got smaller.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'm struggling to see many more points this month. March looks more doable, so if we can scrape a few points this month and maybe beat QPR at home, then we might have the confidence to get something in march. I think by the end of this month we'll be still in the bottom 3 though, probably further adrift than now. If we'd not beaten MKD and Rotherham we'd be totally fooked, so fair play to them for that.

Reasonable. Here are the remaining February fixtures, including McDons' one in hand tonight:

Fulham (29pts)
A QPR (13th)
A Blackburn (18th)
H Charlton (24th)
A Leeds (16th)

Bristol City (28pts)
H Ipswich (7th)
A McDons (21st)
H Brighton (4th)
A Forest (10th)

McDons (27pts)
H Boro (2nd)
A Derby (5th)
H Bristol C (20th)
H Huddersfield (17th)
A Blackburn (18th)

Rotherham (25pts)
H Birmingham (8th)
A Burnley (3rd)
A Reading (15th)
H Brentford (12th)

Bolton (24pts)
A Brighton (4th)
H QPR (13th)
A Birmingham (8th)
H Burnley (3rd)

Charlton (24pts)
H Cardiff (9th)
A Fulham (19th)
A Preston (14th)
H Reading (15th)

It's partly about runs. If Fulham lose the derby at QPR, they might not be best suited for the subsequent trip to Blackburn. If McDons get soundly beaten by Boro and Derby, that's a bad frame of mind for their six-pointer against Bristol City. Rotherham have also got a couple of successive top-eight teams (and Birmingham are much better away than at home).

But to me it's mainly about home games. Really we have to beat QPR - unless we can get something at Brighton (who seem to have corrected their wobble, following eight winless games with three consecutive victories) or at Birmingham. Fulham have only got one home game - a surely-must derby against Charlton. Bristol host Ipswich and Brighton either side of the six-pointer at McDons, who then host Huddersfield in one they need to win. Rotherham host two top-half teams.

Feel free to quote the fixtures and add your predictions...

[BWFC_Insane]

Aye, QPR feels almost must win. Even the most optimistic struggle to see us picking up much on the road so we need to win most of our home games and bare minimum need one win out of QPR and Burnley. And that would likely be QPR.

Probably need to pinch a point out of the other three games somewhere.

[CrazyHorse]

I think we'll get five points from that run in. A win (qpr) and two draws, probably Brighton & Burnley.

We've got momentum. We can get out of this.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Great news, I'm off down the bookies.

#Nopanicfannies

[CrazyHorse]

I'm telling ya.