Brexit or Britin

[bedwetter2]

I may be being naive here, but don't we have a minimum wage? If so, then surely we enforce that and raise it to a level that is both sustainable and liveable? We can then let people compete for jobs on merit, and lets face it, if you can't compete with a foreigner working in their 2nd/3rd language doing an unskilled job then you need to have a word with yourself.

I know brickies and roofers who could earn £120-140 per day on site so £7.20PH is hardly likely to attract them.

BTW ever seen the state of 'built' houses in Bulgaria? Feckin' eye opener.

If they can earn £120-£140 per day then they aren't being edged out of work by Romanians being paid £50 a day are they? My question is why are the people mentioned by bw2 being edged out of work? I don't doubt they are, but by my reckoning £50 a day is less than the minimum wage.

Please see below. Or above

Thanks.

I still think the system is at fault. There is demand for houses to be built, lots of them, but the housebuilders don't want to build lots of them. Government policy is at fault, as they could easily ensure the houses get built and provide the jobs lost in 2008. Lets not forget how much prices have gone up since then due to lack of affordable supply. Immigration hasn't helped, but government policy for a long time has far more to answer for.

Hmmm, possibly but there are still a lot of vacant houses in the north west, yorkshire and the north east. Are we just intending to build more homes so that immigrants may have somewhere to live? Seems short-sighted to me. What if a lot of them bugger off back home in a few years?
It could be a case of the housebuilders being unable to build more houses due to labour issues or the fact that they cannot make a profit from social housing. The industry is partly at fault in not adopting more offsite construction techniques which can certainly reduce labour costs but ultimately it is the cost of land which is the largest single issue. Perhaps the Government can do something about that.

[Worthy4England]

I may be being naive here, but don't we have a minimum wage? If so, then surely we enforce that and raise it to a level that is both sustainable and liveable? We can then let people compete for jobs on merit, and lets face it, if you can't compete with a foreigner working in their 2nd/3rd language doing an unskilled job then you need to have a word with yourself.

I know brickies and roofers who could earn £120-140 per day on site so £7.20PH is hardly likely to attract them.

BTW ever seen the state of 'built' houses in Bulgaria? Feckin' eye opener.

That's why we get all those nice regulations from the EU that you piss and moan about!

Ha ha. Do you really believe that Building Regs are policed in the same way as the UK in Spain or Portugal, never mind Bulgaria or Romania? Bribery is a way of life in those advanced new members of the EU. Wait until Turkey gets in.

No, I don't. Did you really think I did?

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Hmmm, possibly but there are still a lot of vacant houses in the north west, yorkshire and the north east. Are we just intending to build more homes so that immigrants may have somewhere to live? Seems short-sighted to me. What if a lot of them bugger off back home in a few years?
It could be a case of the housebuilders being unable to build more houses due to labour issues or the fact that they cannot make a profit from social housing. The industry is partly at fault in not adopting more offsite construction techniques which can certainly reduce labour costs but ultimately it is the cost of land which is the largest single issue. Perhaps the Government can do something about that.

I was coming at it from the point of view of the SE as I've been away from the north for 25+ years. I agree with you in that it doesn't make sense to build homes where they might not be needed, but certainly London and the SE need them desperately. Developers are sitting on large quantities of plots because it is more profitable to drip feed property into the market. It doesn't help that developers can 'lobby' the Mayor to overturn a council decision requiring them to fulfil their obligation to build a proportion of so called affordable units in a development. Not because they aren't viable, but they'd rather build more posh flats to sell to people in China and the Middle East. These flats invariably sit empty for most of the year. Boris apparently was particularly helpful to large developers for this. I've no doubt the industry has many challenges as you say, but there is a lot the government could and should do.

[Bruce Rioja]

Romania is home to plenty of stunning architecture, and much of it has to be able to withstand earthquakes. But hey, it can't possibly be built to the same standard as the pre-fabs of Newton-le-Willows can it?!

[Worthy4England]

In fairness, it is anecdotal. And may or may not be representative.

I seem to recall when we were discussing your mate Woodford's commissioned report that sector level problems and trade tariffs didn't amount to a "hill of beans" coz the macro-economics were broadly neutral. Sobackatya (that's Bulgarian that is!).

When we're talking about Brexit impacts, fcuk single sectors and any business for who the change in the status quo sends them to the wall, it's fine at the top level, when we're talking remain/current situation Big Norm the plumber giving up construction work because Vlad's asking ten quid a week less and isn't a slackass Monday to Friday because it's double bubble cash in hand on Saturday and Sunday is the centre of the universe?

Oh how I LoLed.

Anyhow. based on the above commentary we need a new headline "Brexit will lead to more homelessness on account of there being not enough houses built"

No it ain't.
You really should take up a new job in keeping with your analytical skills; politics perhaps.
Big Norm (it's Big Wayne, for your information) did not give up construction work; construction work gave up Big Wayne. Laid off by a large or regional construction company in 2008 or 9 when the economy got distinctly chilly he kept applying for jobs to suit his skills elsewhere but found out that Carillion, Balfour Beatty, Skanska et al had laid off 150k people like him. The housebuilders stopped building houses around the same time due to lack of demand so laying off a further 150K. He gave up on remaining in construction and became a shelf-stacker at Asda as an interim job.
After a while he got a supervisor role and Big Wayne started to think "this is better than working in cold and muddy conditions". He is happy now and has moved a bit further up the ladder whilst doing a bit of moonlight plumbing to supplement his income.
Construction has not recovered from the shock to the system in 2008/9 and output is still lower than it was in 2006 despite inflation in the intervening period. The large construction companies reorganised their business models to be less reliant on the UK market. The smaller companies largely dependent upon house building and renovation had little alternative but to employ imports as so many people in the UK had left the sector. The immigrants taking the vacated jobs are numerous and are competing with each other thus driving down rates (the minimum wage does not apply if they are employed as sub-contractor on fixed prices per week).
Neil Woodford has a better rep than you in economics and you shouldn't dis him

Neil Woodford quite rightly has a better rep than me in economics - it's not my day job. If I'm looking to make investments, he might be a person I'd look to invest with (fairly sure I have previously). That doesn't mean I take his all his notions at face value nor necessarily agree with them. As an investor, I could easily see fund managers awarding themselves new countries as bonus payments during any period of instability caused by Brexit.

What I think you're now telling me is that the change in business model was diddly squat to do with a huge influx of Poles/Bulgarians etc. but rather wider factors related to the 2008/9 crash. Which I agree with. Coming out of the other side of that crash as output picked up, folks had left the sector to go and work elsewhere - which you'd expect and there was little room for us to do anything else other that use other labour (which happened to be lower cost and from outside of the UK)...

What do you reckon they should now do? Lay off all the lower labour rate people just so they can double their cost base? I think Mr Woodford would be removing any investments he held in your construction company...

[bedwetter2]

In fairness, it is anecdotal. And may or may not be representative.

I seem to recall when we were discussing your mate Woodford's commissioned report that sector level problems and trade tariffs didn't amount to a "hill of beans" coz the macro-economics were broadly neutral. Sobackatya (that's Bulgarian that is!).

When we're talking about Brexit impacts, fcuk single sectors and any business for who the change in the status quo sends them to the wall, it's fine at the top level, when we're talking remain/current situation Big Norm the plumber giving up construction work because Vlad's asking ten quid a week less and isn't a slackass Monday to Friday because it's double bubble cash in hand on Saturday and Sunday is the centre of
the universe?

Oh how I LoLed.

Anyhow. based on the above commentary we need a new headline "Brexit will lead to more homelessness on account of there being not enough houses built"

No it ain't.
You really should take up a new job in keeping with your analytical skills; politics perhaps.
Big Norm (it's Big Wayne, for your information) did not give up construction work; construction work gave up Big Wayne. Laid off by a large or regional construction company in 2008 or 9 when the economy got distinctly chilly he kept applying for jobs to suit his skills elsewhere but found out that Carillion, Balfour Beatty, Skanska et al had laid off 150k people like him. The housebuilders stopped building houses around the same time due to lack of demand so laying off a further 150K. He gave up on remaining in construction and became a shelf-stacker at Asda as an interim job.
After a while he got a supervisor role and Big Wayne started to think "this is better than working in cold and muddy conditions". He is happy now and has moved a bit further up the ladder whilst doing a bit of moonlight plumbing to supplement his income.
Construction has not recovered from the shock to the system in 2008/9 and output is still lower than it was in 2006 despite inflation in the intervening period. The large construction companies reorganised their business models to be less reliant on the UK market. The smaller companies largely dependent upon house building and renovation had little alternative but to employ imports as so many people in the UK had left the sector. The immigrants taking the vacated jobs are numerous and are competing with each other thus driving down rates (the minimum wage does not apply if they are employed as sub-contractor on fixed prices per week).
Neil Woodford has a better rep than you in economics and you shouldn't dis him

Neil Woodford quite rightly has a better rep than me in economics - it's not my day job. If I'm looking to make investments, he might be a person I'd look to invest with (fairly sure I have previously). That doesn't mean I take his all his notions at face value nor necessarily agree with them. As an investor, I could easily see fund managers awarding themselves new countries as bonus payments during any period of instability caused by Brexit.

What I think you're now telling me is that the change in business model was diddly squat to do with a huge influx of Poles/Bulgarians etc. but rather wider factors related to the 2008/9 crash. Which I agree with. Coming out of the other side of that crash as output picked up, folks had left the sector to go and work elsewhere - which you'd expect and there was little room for us to do anything else other that use other labour (which happened to be lower cost and from outside of the UK)...

What do you reckon they should now do? Lay off all the lower labour rate people just so they can double their cost base? I think Mr Woodford would be removing any investments he held in your construction company...

Don't be bloody daft, Neil wouldn't invest in any company returning pbti 3% of sales as nearly all construction plcs do.
No, what I was hoping you pick up on were the hints that there is little incentive for UK companies to seek out and train British youngsters when there is such a pool of cheap labour already here prepared to work for relative peanuts.

[Worthy4England]

^^ That's true, too!

[bedwetter2]

Romania is home to plenty of stunning architecture, and much of it has to be able to withstand earthquakes. But hey, it can't possibly be built to the same standard as the pre-fabs of Newton-le-Willows can it?!

I think, Bruce, that a goodly proportion of the stunning architecture predates the EU and before the countries now constituting the EU were being spoonfed "directives" by those wonks in Brussels. Experience and local tradition over bollocks every time.

[Bruce Rioja]

Romania is home to plenty of stunning architecture, and much of it has to be able to withstand earthquakes. But hey, it can't possibly be built to the same standard as the pre-fabs of Newton-le-Willows can it?!

I think, Bruce, that a goodly proportion of the stunning architecture predates the EU and before the countries now constituting the EU were being spoonfed "directives" by those wonks in Brussels. Experience and local tradition over bollocks every time.

'Appen, BW2

One of the problems there, certainly in Bucharest, is the issue of post-commie ownership, so these fantastic buildings are laying empty whilst the toss is being argued, meanwhile the Pikeys (of which Romania has more than most, naturally) are breaking in and stripping the buildings of anything worthwhile.

[Worthy4England]

Aye, that is genuinely a crying shame. Of course they only stopped constructing such fantastic buildings as a result of lax EU standards. A bit the same as us not all living in Buckingham Palace like constructions for the same reason. Blast those pesky EU people.

I see it's been awful quiet from our Brexit supporters around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's output today....Unlike me, they're economists. But we wouldn't want to believe them, now would we? It's not as if all they do, all day, is control the UK's monetary and financial stability now is it? They'd have no interest at all in recommending leave, if they thought that would make their day job any easier would they? No, not a bit of it.

[thebish]

Aye, that is genuinely a crying shame. Of course they only stopped constructing such fantastic buildings as a result of lax EU standards. A bit the same as us not all living in Buckingham Palace like constructions for the same reason. Blast those pesky EU people.

I see it's been awful quiet from our Brexit supporters around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's output today....Unlike me, they're economists. But we wouldn't want to believe them, now would we? It's not as if all they do, all day, is control the UK's monetary and financial stability now is it? They'd have no interest at all in recommending leave, if they thought that would make their day job any easier would they? No, not a bit of it.

Lord Lamont, the former Chancellor and Vote Leave spokesman, said there was no need for yet more forward guidance from the Bank.

he's right - they should just shut up cos we just don't want to know!!

[bedwetter2]

Aye, that is genuinely a crying shame. Of course they only stopped constructing such fantastic buildings as a result of lax EU standards. A bit the same as us not all living in Buckingham Palace like constructions for the same reason. Blast those pesky EU people.

I see it's been awful quiet from our Brexit supporters around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's output today....Unlike me, they're economists. But we wouldn't want to believe them, now would we? It's not as if all they do, all day, is control the UK's monetary and financial stability now is it? They'd have no interest at all in recommending leave, if they thought that would make their day job any easier would they? No, not a bit of it.

I'm afraid you are pedalling eroneous information. The design and construction of post WW2 buildings in Romania went to hell in a handcart once the communists introduced the brutalist architecture we know and love them for.

My mole in the BOE tells me that they (employees) have been 'encouraged' to tow the party line. Whether this also applies to the 'independent' MPC i have no idea. Dave and Gideon have fingers in many pies....in a manner of speaking.

[bedwetter2]

^^ That's true, too!

And so what about youth unemployment which has been exacerbated by this influx of cheap labour? There are enough problems in this country without self-inflicted ones. Most people know someone who is earning a relative pittance and struggles to afford rent, never mind buying a home. It could even be a member of your family.
Open borders mean that the western EU countries and eastern EU countries have vastly out of sync average incomes which must find a level. Ours will go down whilst theirs will go up as is the nature of finding equilibrium. I hope you are prepared for much worse and for your current standard of living to take a BIG hit if we remain in this exclusive club.

[thebish]

^^ That's true, too!

And so what about youth unemployment which has been exacerbated by this influx of cheap labour? There are enough problems in this country without self-inflicted ones. Most people know someone who is earning a relative pittance and struggles to afford rent, never mind buying a home. It could even be a member of your family.
Open borders mean that the western EU countries and eastern EU countries have vastly out of sync average incomes which must find a level. Ours will go down whilst theirs will go up as is the nature of finding equilibrium. I hope you are prepared for much worse and for your current standard of living to take a BIG hit if we remain in this exclusive club.

I'm not at all convinced that cutting of the supply of cheap labour from abroad - for the building trade and in the care-sector to pick two obvious areas - would lead to a building sector and care sector that trained young, willing people from the UK and paid them Hobo's £120-140 a day... I suspect it is at least as likely to lead to a further collapsed building sector and a totally wrecked care-sector.

[Worthy4England]

Aye, that is genuinely a crying shame. Of course they only stopped constructing such fantastic buildings as a result of lax EU standards. A bit the same as us not all living in Buckingham Palace like constructions for the same reason. Blast those pesky EU people.

I see it's been awful quiet from our Brexit supporters around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's output today....Unlike me, they're economists. But we wouldn't want to believe them, now would we? It's not as if all they do, all day, is control the UK's monetary and financial stability now is it? They'd have no interest at all in recommending leave, if they thought that would make their day job any easier would they? No, not a bit of it.

Lord Lamont, the former Chancellor and Vote Leave spokesman, said there was no need for yet more forward guidance from the Bank.

he's right - they should just shut up cos we just don't want to know!!

Just let me check something here. Would that be the same Norman Lamont that just kept yanking interest rates up around Black Wednesday? The same one that forced most sane thinking folks to the conclusion that such economic levers belonged in independent hands, such as the BoE MPC? That Norman Lamont?

[Worthy4England]

^^ That's true, too!

And so what about youth unemployment which has been exacerbated by this influx of cheap labour? There are enough problems in this country without self-inflicted ones. Most people know someone who is earning a relative pittance and struggles to afford rent, never mind buying a home. It could even be a member of your family.
Open borders mean that the western EU countries and eastern EU countries have vastly out of sync average incomes which must find a level. Ours will go down whilst theirs will go up as is the nature of finding equilibrium. I hope you are prepared for much worse and for your current standard of living to take a BIG hit if we remain in this exclusive club.

Pfft. Unemployment. Lowest for a decade in January. Dave n George told us...

What I think you're saying in the second para, is as we reach equilibrium, there would be no need for anyone to needlessly move anywhere? Coz there'd be no economic benefit to them? Brilliant. The problem will sort itself out.

[thebish]

Aye, that is genuinely a crying shame. Of course they only stopped constructing such fantastic buildings as a result of lax EU standards. A bit the same as us not all living in Buckingham Palace like constructions for the same reason. Blast those pesky EU people.

I see it's been awful quiet from our Brexit supporters around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's output today....Unlike me, they're economists. But we wouldn't want to believe them, now would we? It's not as if all they do, all day, is control the UK's monetary and financial stability now is it? They'd have no interest at all in recommending leave, if they thought that would make their day job any easier would they? No, not a bit of it.

Lord Lamont, the former Chancellor and Vote Leave spokesman, said there was no need for yet more forward guidance from the Bank.

he's right - they should just shut up cos we just don't want to know!!

Just let me check something here. Would that be the same Norman Lamont that just kept yanking interest rates up around Black Wednesday? The same one that forced most sane thinking folks to the conclusion that such economic levers belonged in independent hands, such as the BoE MPC? That Norman Lamont?

aye - I think it might very well be that one!

[Worthy4England]

Well himself and the former Head of UK Security that allowed his own office to get mortar shelled by a terrorist organisation, advising us on the best way to enhance security sound pretty compelling. I think I'm wavering.

[Prufrock]

Low wages - they're completely the fault of the EU, rather than de facto Tory policy.

S'the point of market economics. Meritocracy. Aspiration. Etc.

[thebish]

statement from the BoE..

The Bank of England has not made, and will not make, any overall assessment of the economics of UK’s membership of the European Union. At the same time, the Bank must assess the implications of the UK’s EU membership for our ability to achieve our core objectives and we have a duty to report our evidence-based judgments to Parliament and to the public. That is the fundamental standard of an open and transparent central bank. Assessing and reporting major risks does not mean becoming involved in politics; rather it would be political to suppress important judgments which relate directly to the Bank’s remits and which influence our policy actions.”

meanwhile - Jacob Rees Mogg (yes, him!) has branded Carney's fairly measured comments as "hysterical" and called for him to quit...