The Politics Thread

[thebish]

Today the BBC summed up the economic implications of Brexit to date. Frankly it does appear that good. The economic slowdown has a fifty-fifty chance of falling into recession in the next 18 months. Gloomy forecasts in many sectors (especially tinfoil futures).

there was a good chance osbourne was leading us into recession before brexit...

There's an even gooder chance that EU will slide into a recession before we do

we're IN the EU...

[thebish]

Short term pain for long term gain, you bunch of impatient, reactionary shithouses

How long term are we talking? When am I going to see immigration down to the 10's of thousands and the economy bounce back?

This time in 2 years, our economy will be growing at a faster rate than it was this time last year

how fast was it growing this time last year?

[Montreal Wanderer]

Short term pain for long term gain, you bunch of impatient, reactionary shithouses

How long term are we talking? When am I going to see immigration down to the 10's of thousands and the economy bounce back?

This time in 2 years, our economy will be growing at a faster rate than it was this time last year

Internet fiver. In fact feck it, a real life fiver.

If I'm still alive and have gotten through the obvious hardship and poverty that will strike us all between now and then, that is

I wouldn't doubt this. When an economy crashes it will clearly rebound (if and when it rebounds) at a faster rate than if it had not crashed and showed normal growth.

[Worthy4England]

Short term pain for long term gain, you bunch of impatient, reactionary shithouses

How long term are we talking? When am I going to see immigration down to the 10's of thousands and the economy bounce back?

This time in 2 years, our economy will be growing at a faster rate than it was this time last year

Internet fiver. In fact feck it, a real life fiver.

If I'm still alive and have gotten through the obvious hardship and poverty that will strike us all between now and then, that is

This time last year, iirc was our lowest growth since last time our growth was negative...I was hoping that this world of wonderful opportunity was going to be a bit better than that...

[Lord Kangana]

How far will it fall before then (growth is a relative, so we need some parameters) and under what circumstances? Full Brexit, as promised, or a compromise?

[thebish]

I've looked it up myself... it was about 0.4%

so - the promise is that stuff will probably be a bit bad for a while (fall into recession?) - but - GOOD NEWS - if we wait 2 years from now, UK growth will deffo be higher than 0.4%

[Bijou Bob]

Today the BBC summed up the economic implications of Brexit to date. Frankly it does appear that good. The economic slowdown has a fifty-fifty chance of falling into recession in the next 18 months. Gloomy forecasts in many sectors (especially tinfoil futures).

Er, so there's a 50% chance that it won't then? Given slow growth over the past 3 years or more, that's not a bad bet.

[Montreal Wanderer]

Today the BBC summed up the economic implications of Brexit to date. Frankly it does appear that good. The economic slowdown has a fifty-fifty chance of falling into recession in the next 18 months. Gloomy forecasts in many sectors (especially tinfoil futures).

Er, so there's a 50% chance that it won't then? Given slow growth over the past 3 years or more, that's not a bad bet.

The alternative to falling into a recession is not necessarily an economic recovery, Bob. A recession is a marked decline in economic activity over a significant period of time. The alternative is usually a slower decline which affects you negatively but does not reach the depths of a recession. It is generally below the slow growth of the past few years until it bottoms out.

[Bijou Bob]

That much I already know Monty. My point is that this isn't necessarily an impending financial disaster and even if it is, it's not automatically the result of Brexit. Given the low growth figures recently, the economy was already at risk of tipping into zero growth territory or worse.

[Harry Genshaw]

I see these spurious and ridiculous allegations that anti semitism existed in the Labour party aren't going away. Folk condemning the nomination of Shami Chakrabati for the honours list. Someone who's championed the vulnerable and the oppressed as opposed to cutting Sam Cam's hair. Someone who probably deserves such an honour but could be denied one because she didn't find something that doesn't exist.

[bobo the clown]

In fact the definition of a recession is negative growth over 2 consecutive quarters.

The EU overall has bounced along with v v low, zero or negative growth for much of the time since 2009. The UK has had ecent growth for much of that time. As I said on here prior to the Brexit vote, should we exit (which I didn't think we would) then it would be messy for a while but we wouldn't become a basket case.

Some important EU economies care in vastly worse nick than we are.

[bobo the clown]

I see these spurious and ridiculous allegations that anti semitism existed in the Labour party aren't going away. Folk condemning the nomination of Shami Chakrabati for the honours list. Someone who's championed the vulnerable and the oppressed as opposed to cutting Sam Cam's hair. Someone who probably deserves such an honour but could be denied one because she didn't find something that doesn't exist.

But it does exist. The SWP & Trot activists who now are taking over the Labour Party are vehemently anti-Israel and translate that into anti-semitism. They just do.

How Chakrabati managed to report that it isn't is a mystery ... unless she found what she was set out to find.

[Harry Genshaw]

Being vehemently anti Israel doesn't make someone anti semitic but is a handy accusation to throw at anyone who criticises their apartheid regime.

Love her or hate her, do you really think Chakrabati is a liar, or someone who would ignore any form of prejudice?

[thebish]

In fact the definition of a recession is negative growth over 2 consecutive quarters.

The EU overall has bounced along with v v low, zero or negative growth for much of the time since 2009. The UK has had ecent growth for much of that time. As I said on here prior to the Brexit vote, should we exit (which I didn't think we would) then it would be messy for a while but we wouldn't become a basket case.

Some important EU economies care in vastly worse nick than we are.

so what? seriously.. being in the EU where there are countries better off and worse off does not mean that we automatically become like the worse off ones or like the better off ones... it just means we are part of an economic union with a variety of differently stronger/weaker fellow members... in or out, our growth rates can still be compared to theirs...

the argument is (surely) whether being in or out helps us to achieve a better/stronger/more secure economic performance over time? I haven't yet heard many convincing arguments that persuade me that being OUT of that european union will help us achieve a better/stronger/more secure economic performance over time, though I am still willing to listen to any offerings you might have...

[Lord Kangana]

I'm still chuckling about anti-semitic Trotskyites.

[bobo the clown]

Being vehemently anti Israel doesn't make someone anti semitic but is a handy accusation to throw at anyone who criticises their apartheid regime.

Love her or hate her, do you really think Chakrabati is a liar, or someone who would ignore any form of prejudice?

I'd prefer not to but anyone investigating how those "anti-semetic Trots" act who doesn't see it as a persistent trend amazes me.

[Prufrock]

I'm still chuckling about anti-semitic Trotskyites.

They're as hilarious as Slavic neo-Nazis.

[boltonboris]

Short term pain for long term gain, you bunch of impatient, reactionary shithouses

How long term are we talking? When am I going to see immigration down to the 10's of thousands and the economy bounce back?

This time in 2 years, our economy will be growing at a faster rate than it was this time last year

how fast was it growing this time last year?

Not as quickly as most other countries in the world

What happened in 2009 by the way? Referendum result?

[boltonboris]

Short term pain for long term gain, you bunch of impatient, reactionary shithouses

How long term are we talking? When am I going to see immigration down to the 10's of thousands and the economy bounce back?

This time in 2 years, our economy will be growing at a faster rate than it was this time last year

Internet fiver. In fact feck it, a real life fiver.

If I'm still alive and have gotten through the obvious hardship and poverty that will strike us all between now and then, that is

This time last year, iirc was our lowest growth since last time our growth was negative...I was hoping that this world of wonderful opportunity was going to be a bit better than that...

Must have been a reason for that.. Referendum?

So you agree tat whilst in the EU, we have a slowing down of our economy?

[Worthy4England]

Yes whilst in the EU we've had slowing economic conditions. We've also had a speeding up economy over various cycles and IIRC in the 1980's a number of "economic miracles"...

No different than any other economy in or out of the EU?