We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[BWFC_Insane]

See Gary Madine's "agent" has put in for him a pay rise. It won't be about money mind, just his value as a world class striker... Terrific timing when everyone else is talking about pay cuts. Agents, I'd ban the lot of em.

I mean in Madine’s position I’d be asking for a pay rise. It might be his last chance for a big contract to set himself up.

[TANGODANCER]

See Gary Madine's "agent" has put in for him a pay rise. It won't be about money mind, just his value as a world class striker... Terrific timing when everyone else is talking about pay cuts. Agents, I'd ban the lot of em.

I mean in Madine’s position I’d be asking for a pay rise. It might be his last chance for a big contract to set himself up.

Course you would. His fellow players are taking less, the club's financially on its knees, the squad's got the fright power of a girl guide troop and we're begging, stealing or borrowing from anybody and everybody....yes, a good time to be asking for a rise. Mind, I'm still thinking daft things like loyalty and stuff, which means naught today when footballers pay 5 grand to get their ends away.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

See Gary Madine's "agent" has put in for him a pay rise. It won't be about money mind, just his value as a world class striker... Terrific timing when everyone else is talking about pay cuts. Agents, I'd ban the lot of em.

I mean in Madine’s position I’d be asking for a pay rise. It might be his last chance for a big contract to set himself up.

Course you would. His fellow players are taking less, the club's financially on its knees, the squad's got the fright power of a girl guide troop and we're begging, stealing or borrowing from anybody and everybody....yes, a good time to be asking for a rise. Mind, I'm still thinking daft things like loyalty and stuff, which means naught today when footballers pay 5 grand to get their ends away.

I agree with you 100% Tango.
But then again the Insane one has probably more invested in Madine than Madine's agent. They may even be the same person.

[BWFC_Insane]

See Gary Madine's "agent" has put in for him a pay rise. It won't be about money mind, just his value as a world class striker... Terrific timing when everyone else is talking about pay cuts. Agents, I'd ban the lot of em.

I mean in Madine’s position I’d be asking for a pay rise. It might be his last chance for a big contract to set himself up.

Course you would. His fellow players are taking less, the club's financially on its knees, the squad's got the fright power of a girl guide troop and we're begging, stealing or borrowing from anybody and everybody....yes, a good time to be asking for a rise. Mind, I'm still thinking daft things like loyalty and stuff, which means naught today when footballers pay 5 grand to get their ends away.

I'm not disagreeing with your point. But Madine will see it this way.....

a) He's in the form of his life.
b) He's in demand.
c) His previous reputation could rear its ugly head at any point.
d) He's not someone who's made fortunes in his career so far.
e) This is his chance to earn a decent contract.
f) He likes Parky and probably knows moving risks a less constructive working relationship and his form suffering.
g) He still can't afford to throw away millions of pounds out of "loyalty".

He's the first Bolton striker to hit double figures two seasons in a row in a decade. So he also knows that he's not going to be replaceable in our current situation. So he's in a prime position.

Seems like the club are offering him a new deal. Its not exactly going to be fortunes but hopefully enough to make him sign. IF he stays and we stay up, and he gets a few more goals...he'll then have 2 years still on his deal...think what his value in the summer might be under those circumstances?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

He's the first Bolton striker to hit double figures two seasons in a row in a decade.

Interesting stat. There's this, too:

Gary Madine, Championship, 2009-2016:
96 appearances (4,921 minutes), 11 goals, 6 assists.

Gary Madine, Championship, 2017-2018:
28 appearances (2,470 minutes), 10 goals, 6 assists.

I think it's fair to say he's outshone all expectations; his vocal supporter Parky might have hoped to improve him, but surely not *expected* to do so to this level. Had anyone said in summer that a promotion-chasing team would be making seven-figure bids for him while ALF couldn't buy a game, they'd have been chortled out of court. As long as he's not asking for a wage that would either upset the apple-cart or break the bank, it makes financial as well as tactical sense: we could sell him for more in summer. I doubt Ken will be signing blank cheques.

[BWFC_Insane]

He's the first Bolton striker to hit double figures two seasons in a row in a decade.

Interesting stat. There's this, too:

Gary Madine, Championship, 2009-2016:
96 appearances (4,921 minutes), 11 goals, 6 assists.

Gary Madine, Championship, 2017-2018:
28 appearances (2,470 minutes), 10 goals, 6 assists.

I think it's fair to say he's outshone all expectations; his vocal supporter Parky might have hoped to improve him, but surely not *expected* to do so to this level. Had anyone said in summer that a promotion-chasing team would be making seven-figure bids for him while ALF couldn't buy a game, they'd have been chortled out of court. As long as he's not asking for a wage that would either upset the apple-cart or break the bank, it makes financial as well as tactical sense: we could sell him for more in summer. I doubt Ken will be signing blank cheques.

Aye. I mean I rated him as a target man. But I didn't think he'd get the goals. Its a huge surprise. However, big strikers do often mature later (especially ones who are a bit stupid off the pitch).

Against Ipswich he looked to have it all. Bit of pace and movement in behind (for a big man), strength, physicality, power and an understanding of the role. Plus predatory instinct in the box. He looked the complete championship package. If his finishing was more consistent you'd possibly argue even higher.

If I was an opposition fan watching him, he'd be the one I'd worry about.

[boltonboris]

He's worth a new contract, whether we give him one, or not.

[TANGODANCER]

Accepting Madine as he is, our glaringly obvious defficiency, him apart, is the fact that we are far from sharp up front goal-wise and as dangerous and frightening as model Rupert the Bears' in front of goal. I'll listen to advice, but weren't Noone and Alfie brought in as box foxes/goal poachers to feed off Madine and nail loose stuff. Again, I'll listen, but have we really had a danger man, someone to lash home any chance, anywhere near the opposition box since Elmander and Ivan Klasnic left? Alfie can't really score many sitting on a sub's bench, same with Noone, and will this Charsley lad make any difference in the shooting gallery? For all our possesion and attacking, the fact remains, Ipswich had two real chances, one hit a post and the other the net. Bolton, the goalscorers are what we need just to survive never mind winning any pots. Nearly men aren't going to save us.

[TANGODANCER]

He's worth a new contract, whether we give him one, or not.

Can't be argued and certainly isn't, I'd love us to nail him down, but the timing is not the best in terms of reality and surely even he and his agent can't be unaware of that? .

[BWFC_Insane]

Accepting Madine as he is, our glaringly obvious defficiency, him apart, is the fact that we are far from sharp up front goal-wise and as dangerous and frightening as model Rupert the Bears' in front of goal. I'll listen to advice, but weren't Noone and Alfie brought in as box foxes/goal poachers to feed off Madine and nail loose stuff. Again, I'll listen, but have we really had a danger man, someone to lash home any chance, anywhere near the opposition box since Elmander and Ivan Klasnic left? Alfie can't really score many sitting on a sub's bench, same with Noone, and will this Charsley lad make any difference in the shooting gallery? For all our possesion and attacking, the fact remains, Ipswich had two real chances, one hit a post and the other the net. Bolton, the goalscorers are what we need just to survive never mind winning any pots. Nearly men aren't going to save us.

Eh? Madine has 10 goals. He's proving to be a goalscorer. Vela, Ameobi etc are also meant to be scoring goals but they aren't.

Our basic problem is not really missing loads of chances, (though like any side we do miss some) but not actually creating enough.

Ipswich the away side had 3 great chances on Saturday that I remember - 1) from a corner a brilliant reflex save from Alnwick 2) The goal 3) one they fired wide during the second half - the one that hit the post wasn't a chance as such but a brilliant hit.

So away side. 3 chances.

Home side - I'd say we had 1st minute Vela - should have scored. The goal. Madine's header that hit the side netting. (Madine free kick too but like Ipswich's shot not really a clear chance).

I suspect that pattern at home is fairly even this season. We, as the home side, create about as much as the away team do. It then just depends who takes those chances. We've won our home games recently in the main because Madine took those chances and the away side didn't.

Sadly on Saturday Ipswich took advantage of our weaker midfield and took that chance.

There is an argument that Vela is underpeforming and we should try someone else. ALF - far too lazy to do that role, will never do the crucial pressing Vela does. Noone - Yet to be impressed by a single thing he's done. New Lad - haven't seen him play yet. One could argue its a risk throwing him in ahead of Vela at this stage.

I think its clear we need to replace Armstrong with someone who is ready to play up front or across the front 3. Ideally a different option, someone direct with pace would be nice. Or someone a bit cleverer on the ball.

[Harry Genshaw]

Says a lot about the modern game really. Most sides play with just one up top these days and sadly the strike duo's of yesteryear are consigned to history.

I don't blame Madine asking for a pay rise while he's in the form of his life. Pity we can't ask for his first year's wages back though when he was next to useless. Giving him an extra say 250,000 a year makes financial sense if we can flog him off for £7m or so in the summer

[TANGODANCER]

Accepting Madine as he is, our glaringly obvious defficiency, him apart, is the fact that we are far from sharp up front goal-wise and as dangerous and frightening as model Rupert the Bears' in front of goal.

Eh? Madine has 10 goals. He's proving to be a goalscorer. Vela, Ameobi etc are also meant to be scoring goals but they aren't.

So what exactly are you arguing about in what I wrote?

[BWFC_Insane]

Says a lot about the modern game really. Most sides play with just one up top these days and sadly the strike duo's of yesteryear are consigned to history.

I don't blame Madine asking for a pay rise while he's in the form of his life. Pity we can't ask for his first year's wages back though when he was next to useless. Giving him an extra say 250,000 a year makes financial sense if we can flog him off for £7m or so in the summer

If he signs a deal I want far more than that. Assombalonga money. He scored 14 for Forest last time. Boro paid £15M.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Our basic problem is not really missing loads of chances, (though like any side we do miss some) but not actually creating enough.

Ipswich the away side had 3 great chances on Saturday that I remember - 1) from a corner a brilliant reflex save from Alnwick 2) The goal 3) one they fired wide during the second half - the one that hit the post wasn't a chance as such but a brilliant hit.

So away side. 3 chances.

Home side - I'd say we had 1st minute Vela - should have scored. The goal. Madine's header that hit the side netting. (Madine free kick too but like Ipswich's shot not really a clear chance).

I suspect that pattern at home is fairly even this season. We, as the home side, create about as much as the away team do. It then just depends who takes those chances. We've won our home games recently in the main because Madine took those chances and the away side didn't.

This is edging toward the disputed territory of expected goals, upon which topic this week stats site Experimental361 did something intriguing (and, for us, a little scary): judging by expected goals vs actual goals, we've actually been overachieving - ie being lucky or maximising our chances, whichever you prefer - since mid-November.

2018-01-21-bolton.png (61.44 KiB) Viewed 5220 times

Now, this is a little confusing, and I know some people can't abide expected goals (a viewpoint I understand but don't really see the need to argue as vociferously as some see fit). Note that what he's done here isn't based on individual matches but a 10-game rolling average, in order to show the trend rather than the outliers.

As a result, it initially takes into account the previous season's last few results, so at the eighth game of the season – Ipswich away - the red line (expected goal difference) dips into the negative. What's more interesting is that the big red shaded area means we were massively underachieving – we didn't score any at all in seven straight league games, but we were still creating chances.

However, after the 17th (Preston away) we suddenly switch from underachieving to overachieving. Now there's a blue area, one which remains to this day, and it means we're overachieving – scoring more goals (compared to the opposition) than the expected-goals model would, well, expect.

Note also that we overachieved for much of last season, and underachieved for most of the relegation season. That sounds fairly obvious in English, but it's more intriguing than that; for instance, Sheffield United "underachieved" - ie didn't do as well as their dominance deserved - for much of last season:

2018-01-21-sheff-utd.png (87.65 KiB) Viewed 5220 times

...while Reading overachieved their way into the play-offs despite being dominated for much of last season – note not just the blue shaded area but how low the red line is, indicating the opposition were averaging more scorable chances:

2018-01-21-reading.png (93.28 KiB) Viewed 5220 times

Anyway, take from this what you will, but it seems to say that we need to buck up our ideas or we will, frankly, be lucky to survive. That's not massively unusual - Burton did it last season, while QPR had overachieved enough from Jan to mid-Mar to stay clear - but it might make for a nervous spring.

Further reading (and examples): https://experimental361.com/2018/01/21/ ... -jan-2018/

[BWFC_Insane]

@DSB - interesting. Does that not confirm what I'm saying that more or less we're taking a good proportion of our chances but not creating many?

I mean I'm guessing most of modern football is decided in these margins. Most games are tight and decided by who takes the key chances here and there.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

@DSB - interesting. Does that not confirm what I'm saying that more or less we're taking a good proportion of our chances but not creating many?

I mean I'm guessing most of modern football is decided in these margins. Most games are tight and decided by who takes the key chances here and there.

It was your point on the "closeness" of chances (us v them) which prompted me to post it, yeah. This is a slightly different dataset to the one you propose (not creating much, but scoring a good proportion) - these lines and shades don't actually detail the number of chances made vs conceded, and technically I suppose we could get the same results by scoring say six out of 18 chances (which conceding only five out of 18) - but yeah, basically.

With your thought in mind it's worth noting, via that link, how infrequently the red lines go above or below an expected-goals aggregate of plus or minus one (ie you'd statistically expect a clear victory); to be fair, in this model that could be because the rolling 10-game average smooths things out, but still, we're talking about decimals rather than integers. On the negative side, Burton's red line dipped below -1 in late autumn, at the same time as Ipswich's results were massively overachieving on their -1 xG (like Reading's last spring), and Sunderland's only briefly dipped below it in the Premier. On the positive side, Fulham's line went above +1 last New Yearish, Millwall peaked in spring and autumn 2017, Wolves nudged it in autumn, Blades spent much of last season (and, more interestingly, part of the previous campaign) above +1. Oh and Hull went above +1 while getting promoted and below -1 under Phelan. But apart from that, the vast majority of teams spend their time in that +1 to -1 zone where an unexpected goal can make all the difference.

Like I say I'm not the greatest fan of expected goals but it can shine some light. In short, unlike "luck" or "decisions", you would (if statistically-minded) expect these things to level themselves out over the course of a season - unless, for instance, a player is overachieving his way into a purple patch, like Morais did last season with assists. Without knowing the individual statistics (which are quite hard to get) it seems to me that Madine's having much the same run in front of goal, and that we therefore face a couple of challenges: (1) whether to keep him while he's hot (or sell him while he's overpriced); (2) either way, what to do when he stops scoring - either because of reversion to the mean or because he's gone elsewhere.

[BWFC_Insane]

@DSB - interesting. Does that not confirm what I'm saying that more or less we're taking a good proportion of our chances but not creating many?

I mean I'm guessing most of modern football is decided in these margins. Most games are tight and decided by who takes the key chances here and there.

It was your point on the "closeness" of chances (us v them) which prompted me to post it, yeah. This is a slightly different dataset to the one you propose (not creating much, but scoring a good proportion) - these lines and shades don't actually detail the number of chances made vs conceded, and technically I suppose we could get the same results by scoring say six out of 18 chances (which conceding only five out of 18) - but yeah, basically.

With your thought in mind it's worth noting, via that link, how infrequently the red lines go above or below an expected-goals aggregate of plus or minus one (ie you'd statistically expect a clear victory); to be fair, in this model that could be because the rolling 10-game average smooths things out, but still, we're talking about decimals rather than integers. On the negative side, Burton's red line dipped below -1 in late autumn, at the same time as Ipswich's results were massively overachieving on their -1 xG (like Reading's last spring), and Sunderland's only briefly dipped below it in the Premier. On the positive side, Fulham's line went above +1 last New Yearish, Millwall peaked in spring and autumn 2017, Wolves nudged it in autumn, Blades spent much of last season (and, more interestingly, part of the previous campaign) above +1. Oh and Hull went above +1 while getting promoted and below -1 under Phelan. But apart from that, the vast majority of teams spend their time in that +1 to -1 zone where an unexpected goal can make all the difference.

Like I say I'm not the greatest fan of expected goals but it can shine some light. In short, unlike "luck" or "decisions", you would (if statistically-minded) expect these things to level themselves out over the course of a season - unless, for instance, a player is overachieving his way into a purple patch, like Morais did last season with assists. Without knowing the individual statistics (which are quite hard to get) it seems to me that Madine's having much the same run in front of goal, and that we therefore face a couple of challenges: (1) whether to keep him while he's hot (or sell him while he's overpriced); (2) either way, what to do when he stops scoring - either because of reversion to the mean or because he's gone elsewhere.

I mean, what if he's simply maturing as a player and a bloke and is now reaching his potential?

There are examples of players developing at this sort of age, especially target men. I also think he's found a manager who gets the best out of him.

[Harry Genshaw]

Says a lot about the modern game really. Most sides play with just one up top these days and sadly the strike duo's of yesteryear are consigned to history.

I don't blame Madine asking for a pay rise while he's in the form of his life. Pity we can't ask for his first year's wages back though when he was next to useless. Giving him an extra say 250,000 a year makes financial sense if we can flog him off for £7m or so in the summer

If he signs a deal I want far more than that. Assombalonga money. He scored 14 for Forest last time. Boro paid £15M.

I'm sure you do! Not going to happen though is it? Madines in good form right now. I don't think anyone thinks he's comparable to Assombalonga though. Come summer time, Ken will snatch the hand off anyone offering north of 7m for Gaz

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I mean, what if he's simply maturing as a player and a bloke and is now reaching his potential?

Possibly. Hopefully.

There are examples of players developing at this sort of age, especially target men. I also think he's found a manager who gets the best out of him.

Certainly.

[bristol_Wanderer3]

Interesting stuff with the statistical analysis. It would be interesting to see what it is like at the other end i.e. expected goals based on chances conceded versus goals conceded. From the naked eye, in the Burton, Cardiff and Ipswich games we have created less but conceded fewer chances also. Against Sheffield Wednesday both teams created lots of clear chances. I think our best game in terms of clear chances was against Norwich where we seemed to create more chances than them, although they had lots more possession, as most teams do against us. In the games before the October international break it felt like we were getting absolutely battered in our home games, with the likes of Derby, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Brentford creating like 8-10 clear cut chances versus our 1-2. In our away games it always feels like we create very little, and concede a number of chances. It would be interesting to see the statistical analysis of chances created/conceded v goals scored/conceded for home games and away games separately and how that compares with other teams.

I would feel a lot better about us if we replaced Armstrong with a player who can play wide and has an eye for goal. Buckley looked promising a few weeks ago, but now doesn't really look like creating or scoring. Ameobi has dried up but still looks like producing something I feel, Vela isn't and doesn't look like producing anywhere near what someone in that position should do in terms of goals and assits. We are in danger of being over reliant on Madine.

I feel Madine is well within his rights to ask us for more money. His career will be over in five years and he needs to make the most he can whilst he can. If Cardiff are offering him £15k per week for example, and he is on say £6k pw here, he has a right to put in a transfer request and feel a bit disillusioned that his employers are both undervaluing him and denying him the chance of a better life going forwards. Eighteen months ago he was getting ridiculed by our fans. Footballers of Madine's level are not super rich, those amounts are not huge amounts given how short their careers are. We are talking the difference between being able to live comfortably without working again, or needing to have to work again later in life. Madine doesn't appear the type who will have a high earning white collar career once he hangs up his boots, nor a top manager in the making.