We are (hopefully) staying up: the opposition

[TANGODANCER]

We shouldn't have to keep relying on other teams to enable survival, we need to get back to winning ways before anything else. It also means we must score a goal in order to do just that. I can't see where our next goal is coming from let alone a win. The team has hit a low just at the wrong time.

It's simple mate; forget the 18 pass possession keeping, usually ending back with Ben the wallop, show some fight and attack the goals. No shots, no headers, no chance of scoring.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.

I'm perfectly calm, my bespotted chum. And if you read it back, at the top of the first of the two posts (it wouldn't let me have more than three image files per post), I definitely said "It is, by its very definition, a blend of prediction and guesswork, but here’s my thoughts"; I'm not sure how that conflates debate and prediction, and I wasn't aware that that was a forum sin, 'cos I'd be far from the first guilty party.

How do you think it's gonna go?

[Lost Leopard Spot]

You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.

I'm perfectly calm, my bespotted chum. And if you read it back, at the top of the first of the two posts (it wouldn't let me have more than three image files per post), I definitely said "It is, by its very definition, a blend of prediction and guesswork, but here’s my thoughts"; I'm not sure how that conflates debate and prediction, and I wasn't aware that that was a forum sin, 'cos I'd be far from the first guilty party.

How do you think it's gonna go?

As it was firmly in the Nostradamus camp I can therefore respond accordingly:
I think we're going to crash at Barnsley, and yet beat Burton. This will need us relying on others - those others, as you are aware, are perfidious bastards, and therefore I am torn between hope and despair.
Speaking from a Socratic disposition - I've no idea. It will become clearer once Saturday is over.
By the way, there are no forum sins, just forum sinners (of which you ain't one).

[BWFC_Insane]

You're gonna give yourself a coronary. There's a reason why Socrates rather than Nostradamus is the base philosopher behind the rise of Science.

I think you're beginning to conflate debate and prediction.

Reason for Edit: crap English.

I'm perfectly calm, my bespotted chum. And if you read it back, at the top of the first of the two posts (it wouldn't let me have more than three image files per post), I definitely said "It is, by its very definition, a blend of prediction and guesswork, but here’s my thoughts"; I'm not sure how that conflates debate and prediction, and I wasn't aware that that was a forum sin, 'cos I'd be far from the first guilty party.

How do you think it's gonna go?

As it was firmly in the Nostradamus camp I can therefore respond accordingly:
I think we're going to crash at Barnsley, and yet beat Burton. This will need us relying on others - those others, as you are aware, are perfidious bastards, and therefore I am torn between hope and despair.
Speaking from a Socratic disposition - I've no idea. It will become clearer once Saturday is over.
By the way, there are no forum sins, just forum sinners (of which you ain't one).

I think this also. In fact I'm certain we'll lose Saturday but make it interesting somewhere down the line.

Its going to the last day, one way or the other. Can feel it in me bones.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Ha!

Yeah, as you can see I expect it to get worse... before it gets better. Maybe I'll only be half-right...

But besides the hunches and guesswork there are definite statistical reasons to be cheerful:
• Barnsley's appalling home record
• Burton's appalling home record
• Reading's recent absence of chances and shots, allied to them only keeping seven clean sheets all season (only Sunderland have fewer)
• Birmingham failing to score in 48% of their home matches
• Forest's appalling recent form/goal drought (no goals or obviously wins in six games, only 3 wins in last 20) http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?lea ... ttm-forest
• Judged by the specifically home-or-away PPG of opponents, we have the division's second-easiest run-in (only Wolves have it better): http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd2&tid=10
• If it comes down to the last day, we have the least successful opponents (as judged by, er, the league table)

None of that means jack unless we step it up, but there are definite signs, by unbiased statistical analyses, that this is a very saveable situation. As you say, Saturday is ginormhuge.

[Mar]

Ha!

Yeah, as you can see I expect it to get worse... before it gets better. Maybe I'll only be half-right...

But besides the hunches and guesswork there are definite statistical reasons to be cheerful:
• Barnsley's appalling home record
• Burton's appalling home record
• Reading's recent absence of chances and shots, allied to them only keeping seven clean sheets all season (only Sunderland have fewer)
• Birmingham failing to score in 48% of their home matches
• Forest's appalling recent form/goal drought (no goals or obviously wins in six games, only 3 wins in last 20) http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?lea ... ttm-forest
• Judged by the specifically home-or-away PPG of opponents, we have the division's second-easiest run-in (only Wolves have it better): http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... nd2&tid=10
• If it comes down to the last day, we have the least successful opponents (as judged by, er, the league table)

None of that means jack unless we step it up, but there are definite signs, by unbiased statistical analyses, that this is a very saveable situation. As you say, Saturday is ginormhuge.

Good to see these sort of statistics, gives us some hope at least. However, it's these sort of statistics that would've been waxing lyrical about us not losing to Millwall for 40'odd years.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Well, we had it it in our own hands until yesterday. Now, despite the mathematical improbability of it all, even if we win all three remaining matches we can still get relegated, whereas if we'd won yesterday that wasn't possible.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Well, we had it it in our own hands until yesterday. Now, despite the mathematical improbability of it all, even if we win all three remaining matches we can still get relegated, whereas if we'd won yesterday that wasn't possible.

There was feck all probability of us winning the next 3 so a mute point

[jmjhb]

Well, we had it it in our own hands until yesterday. Now, despite the mathematical improbability of it all, even if we win all three remaining matches we can still get relegated, whereas if we'd won yesterday that wasn't possible.

On the other hand we can lose all 3 and stay up!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Barnsley 2-2 Bolton
Burton 3-1 Derby
Reading 2-2 Sunderland
Wolves 2-0 Birmingham

Five out of the six drop-dodgers got the results I predicted. JSL

Exception was Burton who suddenly woke up and won their derby against Derby. That makes it less likely that they’ll be down by the time we bob round on 28 April – it’d require us to beat Wolves, for a start – but we’ll see.

Screen Shot 2018-04-15 at 19.53.04.png (22.7 KiB) Viewed 2683 times

Reminder of this weekend’s fixtures:
Sheff Wed-Reading
Bolton-Wolves (ulp)
Birmingham-Blades
Leeds-Barnsley
Sunderland-Burton

COYWM

[BWFC_Insane]

Barnsley 2-2 Bolton
Burton 3-1 Derby
Reading 2-2 Sunderland
Wolves 2-0 Birmingham

Five out of the six drop-dodgers got the results I predicted. JSL

Exception was Burton who suddenly woke up and won their derby against Derby. That makes it less likely that they’ll be down by the time we bob round on 28 April – it’d require us to beat Wolves, for a start – but we’ll see.

Screen Shot 2018-04-15 at 19.53.04.png

Reminder of this weekend’s fixtures:
Sheff Wed-Reading
Bolton-Wolves (ulp)
Birmingham-Blades
Leeds-Barnsley
Sunderland-Burton

COYWM

Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.

Burton are five points and 15 goals behind us with three games left; they can only get to 44pts by winning all three games, including our little head-to-head. If they catch us we're f*cked, especially as it'd mean we'd have to beat Wolves to reach your 44pt target. I'm genuinely more interested in Reading, who are only 3pts away (albeit effectively 4 with GD). Certainly vastly more interested in Barnsley and Blues.

[BWFC_Insane]

Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.

Burton are five points and 15 goals behind us with three games left; they can only get to 44pts by winning all three games, including our little head-to-head. If they catch us we're f*cked, especially as it'd mean we'd have to beat Wolves to reach your 44pt target. I'm genuinely more interested in Reading, who are only 3pts away (albeit effectively 4 with GD). Certainly vastly more interested in Barnsley and Blues.

Yep. What I mean is, if Burton were to win next week, they'd still fancy having half a chance. I'd rather play them dead and buried.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Really need a draw in that Sunderland Burton game, otherwise it brings one of them back in it. If there is a winner than pray its Sunderland - who still have to travel to Fulham.

Burton are five points and 15 goals behind us with three games left; they can only get to 44pts by winning all three games, including our little head-to-head. If they catch us we're f*cked, especially as it'd mean we'd have to beat Wolves to reach your 44pt target. I'm genuinely more interested in Reading, who are only 3pts away (albeit effectively 4 with GD). Certainly vastly more interested in Barnsley and Blues.

Yep. What I mean is, if Burton were to win next week, they'd still fancy having half a chance. I'd rather play them dead and buried.

True, and so would I – but I bet you an internet pint that if they are, someone will say they're "free of worry and likely to play better".

But it's unlikely they'll be mathematically down when we go there. Even if they lose they'll be on 35pts so they'd need at least two of us (40pts), Barnsley (38pts) and Birmingham (40pts) to be on 42pts. That requires two of the following:
(1) us beating Wolves
(2) Birmingham beating Blades
(3) Barnsley winning at both Leeds and Forest
...plus Sunderland winning (to beat Burton), which is never a wise bet.

There's a middle ground in which Burton are "all but mathematically down": if they lose and two of us, Birmingham and Barnsley get to 41pts. That needs Blues to draw with Blades and/or us to draw with Wolves and/or Barnsley to get 3+ points from Leeds and Forest. Then Burton would need at least four results (over two matchdays) to go their way with a 15-goal swing.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

If Burton lost against Sunderland they'd be dead and buried. Which will mean Burton would be free of worry and likely to rake us over the coals. ( )

[Lost Leopard Spot]

The most galling thing is that despite all the emotional turmoil this season has given me (admittedly mostly down than up) I can't make any of the last three matches. Just as the weather's turning and we look like scraping through. What a bummer.

[BWFC_Insane]

The most galling thing is that despite all the emotional turmoil this season has given me (admittedly mostly down than up) I can't make any of the last three matches. Just as the weather's turning and we look like scraping through. What a bummer.

Well that's jinxed us now hasn't it?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye, I doubt I'll see the Whites in the flesh again this season – unless I totally balls up the bank holiday weekend (also my birthday weekend) by driving up north for the Forest game. We'll see. Kinda depends how this thread goes...

Experimental 361's latest number-crunching has us more likely than Barnsley and Blues to stay up.
https://experimental361.com/2018/04/15/ ... -apr-2018/

2018-04-15-ch-probs.png (33.41 KiB) Viewed 3129 times

That has us 69% likely to stay up (Tykes 65%, Blues 63%). Before the weekend we were 59%, Tykes 71%, Blues 72%. There’s gonna be big swings as the remaining number of games reduces by increasing increments (ie going down from three remaining fixtures to two is a bigger step than going down from seven to six). That said, I wouldn't imagine it would have us as too likely to beat Wolves, so it's more likely to be influenced by our rivals' results against Blades and Leeds this Saturday.

Futurology fans may like this site: http://hasithappened.net

And if you want a good old-fashioned predictor to fill in: http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calc ... mpionship/
<ponders possibilities>

[Prufrock]

This thread is what it would look like if Collaterlie Sisters covered for Alan Partridge while he was on holiday.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

This thread is what it would look like if Collaterlie Sisters covered for Alan Partridge while he was on holiday.

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(Cheers TAB)