The Politics Thread

[Lost Leopard Spot]

I've just discovered this. I thought it was a joke, an internet meme, or somebody trolling, but it's absolutely true.
As a build up, do you know that Romanians are (after Poles) the largest immigrant community in our land - very close to half a million of them. One in fifty of every Romanian in the world now live in the UK.
Now cast your mind back to 2014 when the Romanians were first allowed to 'flood' in, and Keith Vaz went to meet, greet and welcome the first of them... pointing out that only three of them arrived that day, and how we were all overreacting.
Well unfortunately the half million who have arrived since are not brain surgeons and nurses, teachers or builders. The vast majority of them are unemployed, or taking benefits while being employed as Uber drivers, Ocado drivers, cocaine dealers, farmed puppy importers, and brothel keepers.
One of the very first in, celebrated by Keith Vaz and serially interviewed at the time by newspapers around the world was Victor Spirescu. He claimed to Mr Vaz and all of us that he wasn't here to rob us.
Well, in January of this year after three and a half years of sponging off this country, including housing benefit, and unlimited access to the NHS the first of the Romanian horde died. He died whilst high on cocaine, driving a car at 110mph, or rather failing to drive at 110mph. Driving a car with no MOT. Not that that particularly matters, because Victor had been disqualified from driving previously. But not ejected from this country, because we obviously need people like Victor, as Keith Vaz made abundantly clear at the time he welcomed him when he stepped off the plane and settled in for his first (free) coffee.

[Harry Genshaw]

Of the half a million who arrived here the vast majority are unemployed. Really? That's a pretty damning statistic if so

[Hoboh]

Half a million, hmmmm wonder how many of those folks who hurled brickbats at me back then saying it would only be a few thousand rocket scientists would like to apologise?
Not holding my breath like and if we get stitched up and have the free movement after Brexit no doubt by 2022 it will be more like a million.
The Osterich syndrome is alive and kicking.

[TANGODANCER]

Half a million, hmmmm wonder how many of those folks who hurled brickbats at me back then saying it would only be a few thousand rocket scientists would like to apologise?
Not holding my breath like and if we get stitched up and have the free movement after Brexit no doubt by 2022 it will be more like a million.
The Osterich syndrome is alive and kicking.

Don't know how true or otherwise that is Hoboh, but "wise after the event" is a very British trend.

[BWFC_Insane]

Of the half a million who arrived here the vast majority are unemployed. Really? That's a pretty damning statistic if so

I suspect its been plucked wildly out of LLS' imagination.

Also, the over-egging of numbers is not necessary. There are 411,000 Romanians. Is that nearly 500,000? Depends how sloppily inaccurate you want to be.

Lets be clear, whatever you think of 411,000 Romanians, it is far from the "millions within a year" nonsense the far right UKIP loonies predicted.

Vive la resistance!

[Hoboh]

Of the half a million who arrived here the vast majority are unemployed. Really? That's a pretty damning statistic if so

I suspect its been plucked wildly out of LLS' imagination.

Also, the over-egging of numbers is not necessary. There are 411,000 Romanians. Is that nearly 500,000? Depends how sloppily inaccurate you want to be.

Lets be clear, whatever you think of 411,000 Romanians, it is far from the "millions within a year" nonsense the far right UKIP loonies predicted.

Vive la resistance!

*411,000 known about surely must be your qualification here no?

It's nearer 500,000 than the supposed 20-30 thou rocket scientists.

From the ONS site
Net migration continues to add to the UK population
Net migration, the difference between those coming into the UK and those leaving the UK is positive, meaning that migration is adding to the UK population – with 244,000 more people arriving in the UK than leaving. The latest headline estimates are similar to last quarter (published 30 November 2017). (Table 1)

Trend still upwards then and given less than half of these will contribute to the economy, many being non working family, children or older relatives I'd love to know just how this is not a drain on services instead of a massive contribution financially, not even considering how many are on poorly paid non tax paying jobs, everywhere except in the eyes of the Ostriches, there is a problem that continues to grow.

[BWFC_Insane]

Of the half a million who arrived here the vast majority are unemployed. Really? That's a pretty damning statistic if so

I suspect its been plucked wildly out of LLS' imagination.

Also, the over-egging of numbers is not necessary. There are 411,000 Romanians. Is that nearly 500,000? Depends how sloppily inaccurate you want to be.

Lets be clear, whatever you think of 411,000 Romanians, it is far from the "millions within a year" nonsense the far right UKIP loonies predicted.

Vive la resistance!

*411,000 known about surely must be your qualification here no?

It's nearer 500,000 than the supposed 20-30 thou rocket scientists.

From the ONS site
Net migration continues to add to the UK population
Net migration, the difference between those coming into the UK and those leaving the UK is positive, meaning that migration is adding to the UK population – with 244,000 more people arriving in the UK than leaving. The latest headline estimates are similar to last quarter (published 30 November 2017). (Table 1)

Trend still upwards then and given less than half of these will contribute to the economy, many being non working family, children or older relatives I'd love to know just how this is not a drain on services instead of a massive contribution financially, not even considering how many are on poorly paid non tax paying jobs, everywhere except in the eyes of the Ostriches, there is a problem that continues to grow.

Well I wasn't the one spouting the ONS figures...

If we were to stop all immigration tomorrow you have a growing (albeit at a lower rate) and ageing population. Fact still remains that the major drain on public services are not related directly to immigration. There needs to be a balance achieved. We're closer to the balance now than we would be under some mental "close the borders" world.

[TANGODANCER]

If we were to stop all immigration tomorrow you have a growing (albeit at a lower rate) and ageing population. Fact still remains that the major drain on public services are not related directly to immigration. There needs to be a balance achieved. We're closer to the balance now than we would be under some mental "close the borders" world.

Just for interest's sake Insaney, what, in your view, exactly are the major drains on public services? Genuine question.

[BWFC_Insane]

If we were to stop all immigration tomorrow you have a growing (albeit at a lower rate) and ageing population. Fact still remains that the major drain on public services are not related directly to immigration. There needs to be a balance achieved. We're closer to the balance now than we would be under some mental "close the borders" world.

Just for interest's sake Insaney, what, in your view, exactly are the major drains on public services? Genuine question.

Its not "my view".

For example in 2014, immigrants "cost" the NHS £160M roughly. That is not a net cost. And given they contribute in tax when working....estimates from research suggests they just about break even or have a net positive impact. Even if they don't and we ignore all the research and say they have a purely net cost it still pales into insignificance when you consider that....

The increasingly ageing population cost the NHS roughly £1.4BN in 2014.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-immigrat ... ssure-nhs/

[TANGODANCER]

If we were to stop all immigration tomorrow you have a growing (albeit at a lower rate) and ageing population. Fact still remains that the major drain on public services are not related directly to immigration. There needs to be a balance achieved. We're closer to the balance now than we would be under some mental "close the borders" world.

Just for interest's sake Insaney, what, in your view, exactly are the major drains on public services? Genuine question.

Its not "my view".

For example in 2014, immigrants "cost" the NHS £160M roughly. That is not a net cost. And given they contribute in tax when working....estimates from research suggests they just about break even or have a net positive impact. Even if they don't and we ignore all the research and say they have a purely net cost it still pales into insignificance when you consider that....

The increasingly ageing population cost the NHS roughly £1.4BN in 2014.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-immigrat ... ssure-nhs/

I'll put the word out for us all to die then. You didn't answer the question I asked.

[BWFC_Insane]

If we were to stop all immigration tomorrow you have a growing (albeit at a lower rate) and ageing population. Fact still remains that the major drain on public services are not related directly to immigration. There needs to be a balance achieved. We're closer to the balance now than we would be under some mental "close the borders" world.

Just for interest's sake Insaney, what, in your view, exactly are the major drains on public services? Genuine question.

Its not "my view".

For example in 2014, immigrants "cost" the NHS £160M roughly. That is not a net cost. And given they contribute in tax when working....estimates from research suggests they just about break even or have a net positive impact. Even if they don't and we ignore all the research and say they have a purely net cost it still pales into insignificance when you consider that....

The increasingly ageing population cost the NHS roughly £1.4BN in 2014.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-immigrat ... ssure-nhs/

I'll put the word out for us all to die then. You didn't answer the question I asked.

An ageing population is the answer. We live longer. Healthcare costs proportionately more as demonstrated there. That is before you get to the monstrous social care cost of a population living longer.

Those are the facts. Its a problem that is getting bigger and bigger.

You can also add in, unhealthier diets and lifestyles too, a problem that is currently smaller but one that is creeping up on us over the next generation or so.

[TANGODANCER]

Just for interest's sake Insaney, what, in your view, exactly are the major drains on public services? Genuine question.

An ageing population is the answer. We live longer. Healthcare costs proportionately more as demonstrated there. That is before you get to the monstrous social care cost of a population living longer.

Those are the facts. Its a problem that is getting bigger and bigger.You can also add in, unhealthier diets and lifestyles too, a problem that is currently smaller but one that is creeping up on us over the next generation or so.
[/quote]

No mention of crime then, the cost of keeping and feeding all the n'er-do-wells in three square a day plus TV and leisure facilities? None of it ssociated with our increasing population (can't blame that one on the elderly) to the extent the police just can't cope and arrestees are being let off because of it? No mention of lawyers and court costs to deal with any of it? No mention of the amount of good citizens ( not blaming this entirely on one faction) who don't bother working and just claim every benefit going? I coulkd go on and on, but any of this down to immigration and number of bodies? Just asking of course?

[BWFC_Insane]

Just for interest's sake Insaney, what, in your view, exactly are the major drains on public services? Genuine question.

An ageing population is the answer. We live longer. Healthcare costs proportionately more as demonstrated there. That is before you get to the monstrous social care cost of a population living longer.

Those are the facts. Its a problem that is getting bigger and bigger.You can also add in, unhealthier diets and lifestyles too, a problem that is currently smaller but one that is creeping up on us over the next generation or so.

No mention of crime then, the cost of keeping and feeding all the n'er-do-wells in three square a day plus TV and leisure facilities? None of it ssociated with our increasing population (can't blame that one on the elderly) to the extent the police just can't cope and arrestees are being let off because of it? No mention of lawyers and court costs to deal with any of it? No mention of the amount of good citizens ( not blaming this entirely on one faction) who don't bother working and just claim every benefit going? I coulkd go on and on, but any of this down to immigration and number of bodies? Just asking of course?
[/quote]

Are you wanting facts or opinions? The biggest single "benefit cost" is the state pension. It accounts for about half of all benefits.

Again - we come back to a very simple fact. We're living longer. And in a civilised society that has huge costs associated to it.

The police not being able to cope is down to cuts in police numbers. Did you vote for a Tory government per chance? Because that is what you're getting. What you voted for. There is a video where Theresa May as home secretary was very clearly warned about the risk of planned police cuts, by police officers themselves. The cuts happened. I suspect you voted for a government committed to those cuts. Apologies if I'm wrong.

Its very tricky to accurately work out the cost or otherwise of immigration. However, extensive work from a number of independent research bodies suggests the impact is less than 1% of GDP AND several of these studies suggest they actually contribute more than they take.

https://fullfact.org/immigration/how-im ... -finances/

You don't seem all that keen on facts, but the truth is that the media in this country prey on the naive to spin a certain agenda. There is a complex balance to be kept between too much immigration and not enough.

We should learn from history and be very careful of scapegoating a very easy target for our problems, and take a far more balanced view.

[Prufrock]

No mention of crime then, the cost of keeping and feeding all the n'er-do-wells in three square a day plus TV and leisure facilities? None of it ssociated with our increasing population (can't blame that one on the elderly) to the extent the police just can't cope and arrestees are being let off because of it? No mention of lawyers and court costs to deal with any of it? No mention of the amount of good citizens ( not blaming this entirely on one faction) who don't bother working and just claim every benefit going? I coulkd go on and on, but any of this down to immigration and number of bodies? Just asking of course?

Without particularly wanting to wade on on this one, you should read The Secret Barrister: Stories of the Law and How it is Broken, TD.

Came out recently and is a rebuttal of the tabloid coverage the criminal justice system gets. Think you'd be genuinely shocked at how little we spend and the huge injustices that go along with it. (Snappy headline - the legal aid cuts, which have decimated the Crim Justice system saved the same amount of money as would've been raised by 1p, one pence, on beer duty).

Also a very easy read about an area we all find fascinating (see the viewing figures of any courtroom drama) but don't often come across in person.

Did you know for example that if your household disposable income is over 37.5k (so a couple earning the average full time wage would be way over) and you are accused of a crime by the state, you don't get legal aid, and if you are found not guilty, the money you get back is capped to legal aid rates (which you haven't a hope in hell of getting someone to work for privately). The average Joe in this country, if falsely accused of a crime, will end up paying tens of thousands of pounds for the privilege of clearing his name. And there's nothing he or she can do other than risk representing himself at a crown court trial (which is about as sensible as giving himself a hip replacement).

I highly recommend the book.

[TANGODANCER]

To try answering two posts in one,Firstly, I really haven't a clue who to vote for because I trust none of them. When a party emerges that seems to answer a sensible way to run the country that suits everyone...well, will that even happen? As for the other points, I'm not having a go at the law, but how the country allows it to operate(or not as the case may be).Ther policing situation is a joke and getting worse. Crime is a major cost issue and to pretend that shyster lawyers don't exist is as bad as stating all law is that way and that drugs are only a minor irritation. Basically, the systems are a screw up because of the government, but Insaney's ideal world pipe dream "let's all pull together" attitude will never happen. Facts and figures are fine (well, they would be if they were'nt all contradicting one another) but the reality is all around us in loseing facilities and , not on forums and investigations. "Home is where the heart is", isn't just a threadbare old adage (didn't your last signature stress that every man wants what's best for him and his?) The world's a very changed place from thirty years ago, and not for the best. My era is over, but my kids and grandkids isn't. Age has made me brave enough to admit I just don't know the answers to todays problems, but to pretend they don't exist and aren't improving is as obvious as Bolton Wanderers aren't Real Madrid.

[BWFC_Insane]

To try answering two posts in one,Firstly, I really haven't a clue who to vote for because I trust none of them. When a party emerges that seems to answer a sensible way to run the country that suits everyone...well, will that even happen? As for the other points, I'm not having a go at the law, but how the country allows it to operate(or not as the case may be).Ther policing situation is a joke and getting worse. Crime is a major cost issue and to pretend that shyster lawyers don't exist is as bad as stating all law is that way and that drugs are only a minor irritation. Basically, the systems are a screw up because of the government, but Insaney's ideal world pipe dream "let's all pull together" attitude will never happen. Facts and figures are fine (well, they would be if they were'nt all contradicting one another) but the reality is all around us in losing facilities and , not on forums and investigations. "Home is where the heart is", isn't just a threadbare old adage (didn't your last signature stress that every man wants what's best for him and his?) The world's a very changed place from thirty years ago, and not for the best. My era is over, but my kids and grandkids isn't. Age has made me brave enough to admit I just don't know the answers to todays problems, but to pretend they don't exist and aren't improving is as obvious as Bolton Wanderers aren't Real Madrid.

The problem here is, the FACTS don't tell the story you want them to.

What you've posted there is basically just a lot of hot air. The only thing I can agree on is that there are no easy answers and nobody has them. However, immigration may cause many issues, but we have to realise that factually we are reliant on it to a degree, and factually there are far bigger drains on our public purse (it is debatable whether immigration is even a drain or a net contributor). Even if you take the worst case scenario its still a drop in the ocean compared to the big issues facing us.

And those issues become infinitely worse if you suddenly reduce the influx of working people and bring the NHS to its knees by restricting foreign workers. Its all about delicate balance but I feel that isn't sexy enough for a generation where everything is extremes.

[TANGODANCER]

The problem here is, the FACTS don't tell the story you want them to.What you've posted there is basically just a lot of hot air.

Well, then, you can go sleep easily in the knowlege you shot down my balloon. Gaudeaqmus Igitur.

[Prufrock]

To try answering two posts in one,Firstly, I really haven't a clue who to vote for because I trust none of them. When a party emerges that seems to answer a sensible way to run the country that suits everyone...well, will that even happen? As for the other points, I'm not having a go at the law, but how the country allows it to operate(or not as the case may be).Ther policing situation is a joke and getting worse. Crime is a major cost issue and to pretend that shyster lawyers don't exist is as bad as stating all law is that way and that drugs are only a minor irritation. Basically, the systems are a screw up because of the government, but Insaney's ideal world pipe dream "let's all pull together" attitude will never happen. Facts and figures are fine (well, they would be if they were'nt all contradicting one another) but the reality is all around us in loseing facilities and , not on forums and investigations. "Home is where the heart is", isn't just a threadbare old adage (didn't your last signature stress that every man wants what's best for him and his?) The world's a very changed place from thirty years ago, and not for the best. My era is over, but my kids and grandkids isn't. Age has made me brave enough to admit I just don't know the answers to todays problems, but to pretend they don't exist and aren't improving is as obvious as Bolton Wanderers aren't Real Madrid.

As I say, I think you (and most non-lawyers (and many non-crime lawyers myself included)) would be shocked as appalled at what is being done to our criminal justice system.

I highly recommend the book.

[Hoboh]

To try answering two posts in one,Firstly, I really haven't a clue who to vote for because I trust none of them. When a party emerges that seems to answer a sensible way to run the country that suits everyone...well, will that even happen? As for the other points, I'm not having a go at the law, but how the country allows it to operate(or not as the case may be).Ther policing situation is a joke and getting worse. Crime is a major cost issue and to pretend that shyster lawyers don't exist is as bad as stating all law is that way and that drugs are only a minor irritation. Basically, the systems are a screw up because of the government, but Insaney's ideal world pipe dream "let's all pull together" attitude will never happen. Facts and figures are fine (well, they would be if they were'nt all contradicting one another) but the reality is all around us in loseing facilities and , not on forums and investigations. "Home is where the heart is", isn't just a threadbare old adage (didn't your last signature stress that every man wants what's best for him and his?) The world's a very changed place from thirty years ago, and not for the best. My era is over, but my kids and grandkids isn't. Age has made me brave enough to admit I just don't know the answers to todays problems, but to pretend they don't exist and aren't improving is as obvious as Bolton Wanderers aren't Real Madrid.

As I say, I think you (and most non-lawyers (and many non-crime lawyers myself included)) would be shocked as appalled at what is being done to our criminal justice system.

I highly recommend the book.

Oh I agree with the criminal system, just leave the 'justice' out of it because except in a few cases, it would fail the trade description act.

[Prufrock]

Well quite. Due to a disgraceful lack of funding in a large part enabled by our tabloid press.